I know that DoubleUp has a killer futures thread, but I thought I'd start one with my own thoughts and questions for this year. Have cash at 5dimes, Bodog, and Bet Islands, so will be comparing lines at these three locations. 5dimes, of course, is generally the best here.
So far, I have one play:
Ohio U. +1000 to win the MAC at Bet Islands
love this play, its between them and Toledo and No. Illinois in my opinion,
Honestly, I haven't even done my research on the MAC yet this year, but this is +500 on BoDog (although it's unbettable for some reason--the lines are up but the wagers are closed) and +495 on 5dimes. That big of a discrepancy on one of the teams I'd flagged for further research told me I should go ahead and take the line while I have it.
Their two biggest competitors in the East changed coaches this year, and one of them hired Steve Addazio. Additionally, Miami benefitted last year from a ton of close wins. By process of elimination alone, the Bobcats are a strong pick to make the championship game. But they also return five starters on the offensive line, and their MAC schedule is about as easy as they come.
Bet Islands doesn't have their divisional odds up yet for the MAC, but I'll do a little more research when those come out. A championship game loss is my kneejerk expectation for Ohio, but 10/1 is too tempting for a team that I expect to make the title game.
Will post more thoughts/plays over the weekend.
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Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:
I know that DoubleUp has a killer futures thread, but I thought I'd start one with my own thoughts and questions for this year. Have cash at 5dimes, Bodog, and Bet Islands, so will be comparing lines at these three locations. 5dimes, of course, is generally the best here.
So far, I have one play:
Ohio U. +1000 to win the MAC at Bet Islands
love this play, its between them and Toledo and No. Illinois in my opinion,
Honestly, I haven't even done my research on the MAC yet this year, but this is +500 on BoDog (although it's unbettable for some reason--the lines are up but the wagers are closed) and +495 on 5dimes. That big of a discrepancy on one of the teams I'd flagged for further research told me I should go ahead and take the line while I have it.
Their two biggest competitors in the East changed coaches this year, and one of them hired Steve Addazio. Additionally, Miami benefitted last year from a ton of close wins. By process of elimination alone, the Bobcats are a strong pick to make the championship game. But they also return five starters on the offensive line, and their MAC schedule is about as easy as they come.
Bet Islands doesn't have their divisional odds up yet for the MAC, but I'll do a little more research when those come out. A championship game loss is my kneejerk expectation for Ohio, but 10/1 is too tempting for a team that I expect to make the title game.
Somebody has to win the East, and although I understand why Georgia is put in the favorite position, they still don't stir up tons of confidence in me, especially with their issues at RB and the guys they have to replace on the line (not to mention the whole A.J. Green thing). I'm not a believer in Florida, with as much change as they have this offseason.
So South Carolina is the default favorite. They won it last year, they get Florida at home, Alabama rotates off their schedule, they still have Jeffrey and Lattimore. A lot to like at +260.
I'd like Tennessee a lot more if not for the schedule. This team is still a year away from competing in a normal SEC East, but this isn't a normal East. Hell, last year, the Vols were one snafu against LSU away from having the game in Columbia (which was tied with 6 minutes to play) be for the East title. This year, they will be young again (expect 7 sophomores and 1 freshman to start on offense and 5 sophomores to start on defense), and I wouldn't expect wonders, but I would expect improvement. The SEC West slate is likely three losses (@Bama, @Arkansas, vs. LSU), but a sweep of the East is not crazy. They get Florida early and Georgia and Carolina at home. Most fans are expecting more like 1-2 against those three, but 9/1 is a tempting number at which to hope for some year two magic.
I believe that Petrino will get solid play out of whoever calls the signals. With that in mind, it's hard to see too much dropoff from an Arkansas team that went 10-2 last year. The two tougher teams on their East slate are good matchups and will be played at home; their East roadie is against Vandy. They're an upset in Tuscaloosa away from nearly guaranteeing contention on the last week of the season (in which they play LSU) and fine hedge opportunities.
With you on SC and Tennessee ...
Arkansas offers some value as well ... but I might want 20-1 or more
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:
SEC considerations (all 5dimes):
USC +260 to win the East
Tennessee +900 to win the East
Arkansas +1500 to win the SEC
Somebody has to win the East, and although I understand why Georgia is put in the favorite position, they still don't stir up tons of confidence in me, especially with their issues at RB and the guys they have to replace on the line (not to mention the whole A.J. Green thing). I'm not a believer in Florida, with as much change as they have this offseason.
So South Carolina is the default favorite. They won it last year, they get Florida at home, Alabama rotates off their schedule, they still have Jeffrey and Lattimore. A lot to like at +260.
I'd like Tennessee a lot more if not for the schedule. This team is still a year away from competing in a normal SEC East, but this isn't a normal East. Hell, last year, the Vols were one snafu against LSU away from having the game in Columbia (which was tied with 6 minutes to play) be for the East title. This year, they will be young again (expect 7 sophomores and 1 freshman to start on offense and 5 sophomores to start on defense), and I wouldn't expect wonders, but I would expect improvement. The SEC West slate is likely three losses (@Bama, @Arkansas, vs. LSU), but a sweep of the East is not crazy. They get Florida early and Georgia and Carolina at home. Most fans are expecting more like 1-2 against those three, but 9/1 is a tempting number at which to hope for some year two magic.
I believe that Petrino will get solid play out of whoever calls the signals. With that in mind, it's hard to see too much dropoff from an Arkansas team that went 10-2 last year. The two tougher teams on their East slate are good matchups and will be played at home; their East roadie is against Vandy. They're an upset in Tuscaloosa away from nearly guaranteeing contention on the last week of the season (in which they play LSU) and fine hedge opportunities.
With you on SC and Tennessee ...
Arkansas offers some value as well ... but I might want 20-1 or more
Guess I've done a lot of thinking out loud here. Well, here's the ending of my thinking out loud. At least for now.
Taking three teams in one conference seems crazy. But between BoDog and 5dimes, the lines are different enough that I think there's value in doing so. It's like if you could get WVU, Pitt, and USF in the Big East each for +300 or better. Additionally, it serves as a bet against the rest of the conference, and I think the rest of the conference deserves to get bet against in this case.
*Arkansas State has a new coach and only returns one O-line starter. I don't see a team with that sort of OL discontinuity winning it.
*MTSU has a pair of new coordinators and loses 8 defensive starters. Also, they always choke against Troy.
*I don't think North Texas, Western Kentucky, Louisiana, or FAU have the talent to make a run to the title. Perhaps to the top half of the standings, but not to the title.
So I'm betting against those six by betting on the top three. I've set it up so I stand to win the most on FIU, as they return 15 starters from a team that won it all last year, and they've steadily improved. I'd win the second most on ULM, who returns 17 starters from a young team that still scored some big wins last year, including one over Troy. And Troy. . . I prefer both teams that beat them last year, but Troy is always in the mix (champ or co-champ five years running), and +300 is nice for a team that's always in the mix.
So my SBC futures shake down as follows:
1 unit on FIU +300 (BoDog)
.75 unit on Troy +300 (BoDog)
.5 unit on ULM +675 (5dimes)
overall:
If FIU wins, I win 1.75 units
If ULM wins, I win 1.675 units
If Troy wins, I win 0.75 units
If none of the above win, I lose 2.25 units
Nice Idea to Corner the market on Conference Futures...
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:
Guess I've done a lot of thinking out loud here. Well, here's the ending of my thinking out loud. At least for now.
Taking three teams in one conference seems crazy. But between BoDog and 5dimes, the lines are different enough that I think there's value in doing so. It's like if you could get WVU, Pitt, and USF in the Big East each for +300 or better. Additionally, it serves as a bet against the rest of the conference, and I think the rest of the conference deserves to get bet against in this case.
*Arkansas State has a new coach and only returns one O-line starter. I don't see a team with that sort of OL discontinuity winning it.
*MTSU has a pair of new coordinators and loses 8 defensive starters. Also, they always choke against Troy.
*I don't think North Texas, Western Kentucky, Louisiana, or FAU have the talent to make a run to the title. Perhaps to the top half of the standings, but not to the title.
So I'm betting against those six by betting on the top three. I've set it up so I stand to win the most on FIU, as they return 15 starters from a team that won it all last year, and they've steadily improved. I'd win the second most on ULM, who returns 17 starters from a young team that still scored some big wins last year, including one over Troy. And Troy. . . I prefer both teams that beat them last year, but Troy is always in the mix (champ or co-champ five years running), and +300 is nice for a team that's always in the mix.
So my SBC futures shake down as follows:
1 unit on FIU +300 (BoDog)
.75 unit on Troy +300 (BoDog)
.5 unit on ULM +675 (5dimes)
overall:
If FIU wins, I win 1.75 units
If ULM wins, I win 1.675 units
If Troy wins, I win 0.75 units
If none of the above win, I lose 2.25 units
Nice Idea to Corner the market on Conference Futures...
Arkansas offers some value as well ... but I might want 20-1 or more
You're definitely the value expert; this is my first year doing futures, so I'm learning as I go. I would've loved 20/1 on the Pigs, but I feel pretty good about 15 with a Bama hedge. I expect Petrino to keep the offense clicking, and I see their 2nd and 3rd toughest conference games in the last two weeks of the season (MSU, @LSU). That tells me that it just takes one upset win (@Alabama) and five wins as a favorite to give strong hedge or middle chances late. With that in mind, I feel fine about 15/1.
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Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:
With you on SC and Tennessee ...
Arkansas offers some value as well ... but I might want 20-1 or more
You're definitely the value expert; this is my first year doing futures, so I'm learning as I go. I would've loved 20/1 on the Pigs, but I feel pretty good about 15 with a Bama hedge. I expect Petrino to keep the offense clicking, and I see their 2nd and 3rd toughest conference games in the last two weeks of the season (MSU, @LSU). That tells me that it just takes one upset win (@Alabama) and five wins as a favorite to give strong hedge or middle chances late. With that in mind, I feel fine about 15/1.
If u like sucker bets, take ncst to win the acc whatever...
I didn't take them, but you don't think that they're as good as Maryland (who is changing coaches) and Virginia? And if 40-1 isn't good value, I'm not sure what is.
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Quote Originally Posted by QBoption:
NOT.
If u like sucker bets, take ncst to win the acc whatever...
I didn't take them, but you don't think that they're as good as Maryland (who is changing coaches) and Virginia? And if 40-1 isn't good value, I'm not sure what is.
I didn't take them, but you don't think that they're as good as Maryland (who is changing coaches) and Virginia? And if 40-1 isn't good value, I'm not sure what is.
Value to me means something different i guess.
Maryland has a quality new coach using the same basic type of schemes, i think. i dont have a good read on this team.tuff schd.
NC st has a quality coach and new QB(69% comp), with easy first half schd( 1st test Nov.22).
Futures are tricky for me but, i know who not to play on, i think...
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Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:
I didn't take them, but you don't think that they're as good as Maryland (who is changing coaches) and Virginia? And if 40-1 isn't good value, I'm not sure what is.
Value to me means something different i guess.
Maryland has a quality new coach using the same basic type of schemes, i think. i dont have a good read on this team.tuff schd.
NC st has a quality coach and new QB(69% comp), with easy first half schd( 1st test Nov.22).
Futures are tricky for me but, i know who not to play on, i think...
I don't want to load up too much on the same couple of teams, but I really like Arkansas OVER 8.5 wins (-110). Think they should handle Tennessee, Auburn, and South Carolina at home without too much trouble, which means they just have to avoid going 0-4 against Bama, LSU, A&M, and Mississippi State.
Also like Tennessee OVER 6.5 wins, but I don't know that I like it enough to play at -135.
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I don't want to load up too much on the same couple of teams, but I really like Arkansas OVER 8.5 wins (-110). Think they should handle Tennessee, Auburn, and South Carolina at home without too much trouble, which means they just have to avoid going 0-4 against Bama, LSU, A&M, and Mississippi State.
Also like Tennessee OVER 6.5 wins, but I don't know that I like it enough to play at -135.
Nebraska gets consecutive games against Wisconsin and Ohio State. Losing both is not out of the question. Then they close with five straight games against teams that will be underdogs but will have a shot at them. Gotta think somebody gets the job done.
I foresee Stanford falling off after losing their coach and a lot of their line. But perhaps I don't see them falling off as much as the books do. I see a 6-0 start, and then I see 4-2 against Washington, USC, Oregon, OSU, Cal, and ND as more likely than 2-4.
Slightly tempted by Oklahoma State under 8.5 (-105), but not quite so much. And I've been looking to play Michigan State under, but not under 7.5. Their schedule isn't hard enough for that.
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A couple others that immediately jump to mind:
*Nebraska UNDER 9.5 (+115)
*Stanford OVER 9 (+100)
Nebraska gets consecutive games against Wisconsin and Ohio State. Losing both is not out of the question. Then they close with five straight games against teams that will be underdogs but will have a shot at them. Gotta think somebody gets the job done.
I foresee Stanford falling off after losing their coach and a lot of their line. But perhaps I don't see them falling off as much as the books do. I see a 6-0 start, and then I see 4-2 against Washington, USC, Oregon, OSU, Cal, and ND as more likely than 2-4.
Slightly tempted by Oklahoma State under 8.5 (-105), but not quite so much. And I've been looking to play Michigan State under, but not under 7.5. Their schedule isn't hard enough for that.
Oh hey, Bet Islands has Tennessee OVER 6.5 at -115. Given the comparison with 5dimes, I thought I might should go ahead and play it now. Although it didn't like my betting of 1.15 units to win 1 unit, so for some reason, I'm betting 1.4 to win 1.2. Irksome, but not a big deal.
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Oh hey, Bet Islands has Tennessee OVER 6.5 at -115. Given the comparison with 5dimes, I thought I might should go ahead and play it now. Although it didn't like my betting of 1.15 units to win 1 unit, so for some reason, I'm betting 1.4 to win 1.2. Irksome, but not a big deal.
Alright, so I played Tennessee OVER 6.5 at -115 and Arkansas OVER 8.5 at -110. I think I just like those two teams more than most, so they'd better have good years.
One of my books has Stanford OVER 9 at +100, and the other has Stanford OVER 8.5 at -160. Even being a bit down on the Cardinal this year, I like them well enough at those numbers. But I'm not sure whether the low juice or the push-prevention is more important.
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Alright, so I played Tennessee OVER 6.5 at -115 and Arkansas OVER 8.5 at -110. I think I just like those two teams more than most, so they'd better have good years.
One of my books has Stanford OVER 9 at +100, and the other has Stanford OVER 8.5 at -160. Even being a bit down on the Cardinal this year, I like them well enough at those numbers. But I'm not sure whether the low juice or the push-prevention is more important.
I know I'm making a bet against my own school and all, but once word came out that Butch Davis was fired, I felt like UNC under 8 wins (+100) was a solid play. Their schedule looks kinda like cake, but as a Tennessee basketball fan, I know what coaching turmoil can do.
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I know I'm making a bet against my own school and all, but once word came out that Butch Davis was fired, I felt like UNC under 8 wins (+100) was a solid play. Their schedule looks kinda like cake, but as a Tennessee basketball fan, I know what coaching turmoil can do.
You keep talking about hedge and middle, u got it backwards Arkansas is an underdog at LSU, the middle would be if you had an LSU future and was getting the 5.5pt middle to bet arkansas for the game.
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You keep talking about hedge and middle, u got it backwards Arkansas is an underdog at LSU, the middle would be if you had an LSU future and was getting the 5.5pt middle to bet arkansas for the game.
Arkansas is an underdog @LSU right now, but they won't be if they come into it 7-0 in the SEC. If they've stumbled a couple times and the line is still roughly like it is now, there's no hedge/middle opportunity anyways
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Arkansas is an underdog @LSU right now, but they won't be if they come into it 7-0 in the SEC. If they've stumbled a couple times and the line is still roughly like it is now, there's no hedge/middle opportunity anyways
Went ahead and put a unit in Virginia Tech +130 to win the Coastal. They were always the favorites, but now it's probably just a head to head between Virginia Tech and Miami, and that game is at Lane (also, obviously first year coach in Miami).
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Went ahead and put a unit in Virginia Tech +130 to win the Coastal. They were always the favorites, but now it's probably just a head to head between Virginia Tech and Miami, and that game is at Lane (also, obviously first year coach in Miami).
Still looking hard at Nebraska, now looking at Arizona UNDER 6 (+105). I see two non-conference wins, so they need to go 5-4 in Pac-12 play to beat me, 4-5 to tie me. That might be reasonable, if their Pac-12 North rotational games weren't against the four best teams in the North (@Washington, Oregon, @Oregon St, Stanford). 1-3 against that lot and 2-3 in their division (@ASU, @USC, @CU, vs. Utah, vs. UCLA) yields 5-7.
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Still looking hard at Nebraska, now looking at Arizona UNDER 6 (+105). I see two non-conference wins, so they need to go 5-4 in Pac-12 play to beat me, 4-5 to tie me. That might be reasonable, if their Pac-12 North rotational games weren't against the four best teams in the North (@Washington, Oregon, @Oregon St, Stanford). 1-3 against that lot and 2-3 in their division (@ASU, @USC, @CU, vs. Utah, vs. UCLA) yields 5-7.
Went ahead and put a unit in Virginia Tech +130 to win the Coastal. They were always the favorites, but now it's probably just a head to head between Virginia Tech and Miami, and that game is at Lane (also, obviously first year coach in Miami).
Don't Like Golden as HC
Hokies have a great schedule and some Nice Pieces ....
Va Tech Wins the Coastal 65%+ of the time according to my Numbers
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:
Went ahead and put a unit in Virginia Tech +130 to win the Coastal. They were always the favorites, but now it's probably just a head to head between Virginia Tech and Miami, and that game is at Lane (also, obviously first year coach in Miami).
Don't Like Golden as HC
Hokies have a great schedule and some Nice Pieces ....
Va Tech Wins the Coastal 65%+ of the time according to my Numbers
Went ahead and put another unit on Tennessee when Bodog released a -115 over. Hope I'm not just being a homer, but I like the Vols to improve on last year (plus, I need to make sure I have enough action at Bodog to roll over 22 units this season). Might add another unit on Arkansas, but I'm waiting to see what lines Bet Islands and Bodog give on the Hogs. Really like these two teams to exceed expectations.
Also played Nebraska under 10, 1.5 units to win 1 at Bet Islands.
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Went ahead and put another unit on Tennessee when Bodog released a -115 over. Hope I'm not just being a homer, but I like the Vols to improve on last year (plus, I need to make sure I have enough action at Bodog to roll over 22 units this season). Might add another unit on Arkansas, but I'm waiting to see what lines Bet Islands and Bodog give on the Hogs. Really like these two teams to exceed expectations.
Also played Nebraska under 10, 1.5 units to win 1 at Bet Islands.
Looking through GOY lines and still showing the Hogs some love. Placed two bets:
***ARKANSAS -3.5 vs. South Carolina (11/5) Arkansas has beaten South Carolina by more than a field goal four of the last five years. It's not a good matchup for the Cocks, and they get it coming off what I see as a tougher than anticipated roadie in Neyland.
***ARKANSAS +6.5 @LSU (11/25). Seriously? This line is a joke, right? This series has been decided by less than a touchdown in 5 of the last six years, and the last time LSU beat Arkansas by 7+, Nick Saban was coaching against Houston Nutt.
A couple more SEC games that I'll be looking for but are not playing right now:
TENNESSEE @ Florida 9/17. I'd probably take it at the current +8, but I'm hoping the Gators can thrash a pair of nobodies (FAU, UAB) and move the line up a bit. I'm not a believer in Florida this year, and while I don't think the Vols will win (we always manage to screw things up in the Swamp), I do see it being tight.
TENNESSEE vs. LSU 10/15. This series has been decided by one score in six of the last seven meetings. Two have gone to overtime and two more were decided on the last play of the game. It's always close, even when it shouldn't be. The current line of +8.5 isn't bad, but I'd love to see LSU thrash Florida the week before and drive it up.
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. Florida 11/12. This one is always such a great setup for Cocks bettors. They get killed by Arkansas the week before, and Florida is coming off two straight wins against Georgia and Vandy. The line is never what it should be, and that's a big reason why the Cocks have gone 4-2 ATS against Florida since Spurrier took over.
MISSISSIPPI STATE @ Arkansas 11/19. I know my picture is awful rosy for the Hogs this year, but this one is dangerous. It's the third game in a tough four game stretch (South Carolina, Tennessee, Miss St, @LSU), and it directly precedes their big rivalry game @LSU. Not playing it right now (even though +8.5 isn't bad) because I see big Arkansas wins the preceding weeks against Carolina and Tennessee (and a big MSU loss to Bama) pushing the spread up, possibly above 10.
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Looking through GOY lines and still showing the Hogs some love. Placed two bets:
***ARKANSAS -3.5 vs. South Carolina (11/5) Arkansas has beaten South Carolina by more than a field goal four of the last five years. It's not a good matchup for the Cocks, and they get it coming off what I see as a tougher than anticipated roadie in Neyland.
***ARKANSAS +6.5 @LSU (11/25). Seriously? This line is a joke, right? This series has been decided by less than a touchdown in 5 of the last six years, and the last time LSU beat Arkansas by 7+, Nick Saban was coaching against Houston Nutt.
A couple more SEC games that I'll be looking for but are not playing right now:
TENNESSEE @ Florida 9/17. I'd probably take it at the current +8, but I'm hoping the Gators can thrash a pair of nobodies (FAU, UAB) and move the line up a bit. I'm not a believer in Florida this year, and while I don't think the Vols will win (we always manage to screw things up in the Swamp), I do see it being tight.
TENNESSEE vs. LSU 10/15. This series has been decided by one score in six of the last seven meetings. Two have gone to overtime and two more were decided on the last play of the game. It's always close, even when it shouldn't be. The current line of +8.5 isn't bad, but I'd love to see LSU thrash Florida the week before and drive it up.
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. Florida 11/12. This one is always such a great setup for Cocks bettors. They get killed by Arkansas the week before, and Florida is coming off two straight wins against Georgia and Vandy. The line is never what it should be, and that's a big reason why the Cocks have gone 4-2 ATS against Florida since Spurrier took over.
MISSISSIPPI STATE @ Arkansas 11/19. I know my picture is awful rosy for the Hogs this year, but this one is dangerous. It's the third game in a tough four game stretch (South Carolina, Tennessee, Miss St, @LSU), and it directly precedes their big rivalry game @LSU. Not playing it right now (even though +8.5 isn't bad) because I see big Arkansas wins the preceding weeks against Carolina and Tennessee (and a big MSU loss to Bama) pushing the spread up, possibly above 10.
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Golden as HC 
65%+ of the time according to my Numbers 
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