Hey FDog, KDog:
Sooner pass defense not all that great?....Whoaa Nelly....better take another look.
Regarding Bradford...this kid is like a surgeon throwing darts.....He hits receivers in the hands, in stride....Mistakes?...O-Line doesn't put him in position to make mistakes...Running Game....Lordy just check out Murray and Patrick....BTW when Patrick took over for Peterson last year there was zero dropoff...Salivating waiting for Tulsa D and Sooner secondary will feast result of D-Line pressure....
This team has zero weaknesses....Last time that happened Switzer was handing Osborne his taco platter at midfield.
OU 56
TUL 14
PLAY OVER
NO PROBLEMO ....YAWN...||sleep2.gif' border=0>
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Hey FDog, KDog:
Sooner pass defense not all that great?....Whoaa Nelly....better take another look.
Regarding Bradford...this kid is like a surgeon throwing darts.....He hits receivers in the hands, in stride....Mistakes?...O-Line doesn't put him in position to make mistakes...Running Game....Lordy just check out Murray and Patrick....BTW when Patrick took over for Peterson last year there was zero dropoff...Salivating waiting for Tulsa D and Sooner secondary will feast result of D-Line pressure....
This team has zero weaknesses....Last time that happened Switzer was handing Osborne his taco platter at midfield.
OU 56
TUL 14
PLAY OVER
NO PROBLEMO ....YAWN...||sleep2.gif' border=0>
joe, to answer you about Bradford, I don't argue those are great numbers for him. Two things play a part though, he hasn't faced a good opponent yet, and he hasn't played on the road yet.
As for the Sooner pass defense, I am not really saying they are not great compared to other teams in the country, this is relative to their own defense. This is how their defense stacks up:
2006
Scoring 19th
Rushing 16th
Passing 41st
Total 16th
This year
Scoring 6th
Rushing 7th
Passing 23rd
Total 2nd
To me, this tells me that their pass defense is the weak spot on that unit.
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joe, to answer you about Bradford, I don't argue those are great numbers for him. Two things play a part though, he hasn't faced a good opponent yet, and he hasn't played on the road yet.
As for the Sooner pass defense, I am not really saying they are not great compared to other teams in the country, this is relative to their own defense. This is how their defense stacks up:
2006
Scoring 19th
Rushing 16th
Passing 41st
Total 16th
This year
Scoring 6th
Rushing 7th
Passing 23rd
Total 2nd
To me, this tells me that their pass defense is the weak spot on that unit.
Adding:
Toledo +4
This is probably the best possible spot for Toledo to get in the win column. They're back at home after 2 tough games in their first 3. They have the revenge factor, and Iowa St. is in a letdown spot. This Toledo defense really hasn't shown what they are made of yet, I think they give Iowa St. a good game here, if not an outright win.
Card so far:
Buffalo +3.5
Alabama -3 (bought .5 pt)
Toledo +4
0
Adding:
Toledo +4
This is probably the best possible spot for Toledo to get in the win column. They're back at home after 2 tough games in their first 3. They have the revenge factor, and Iowa St. is in a letdown spot. This Toledo defense really hasn't shown what they are made of yet, I think they give Iowa St. a good game here, if not an outright win.
Card so far:
Buffalo +3.5
Alabama -3 (bought .5 pt)
Toledo +4
Northern Illinois @ Idaho (Sat 9/22)
Two teams that are going to finish at the bottom of their division. I was on the Huskies last week against E. Michigan, and that was dissapointing. That, however, is not why I am against them this week. The Huskies are 0-3 against much weaker competition than Idaho. While Idaho is 1-2, but have played USC and Washington State (both on the road). The Vandal redshirt freshman Deonte Jachson has been impressive in all 3 games thus far. Rushing for 113 against Washington State, 214 against Cal Poly, and 99 against USC. I don't think the Huskies defense will be able to stop him this week on the turf in Idaho. I'm taking the team with the stronger SOS, and the better RB.
Idaho -3
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Northern Illinois @ Idaho (Sat 9/22)
Two teams that are going to finish at the bottom of their division. I was on the Huskies last week against E. Michigan, and that was dissapointing. That, however, is not why I am against them this week. The Huskies are 0-3 against much weaker competition than Idaho. While Idaho is 1-2, but have played USC and Washington State (both on the road). The Vandal redshirt freshman Deonte Jachson has been impressive in all 3 games thus far. Rushing for 113 against Washington State, 214 against Cal Poly, and 99 against USC. I don't think the Huskies defense will be able to stop him this week on the turf in Idaho. I'm taking the team with the stronger SOS, and the better RB.
Idaho -3
freightdog,
Does your "system" crunch trends, or yards and game stats? Or both?
Is it a computer program? Your own?
Then, do you add your own subjective scouting and analysis?
Or are your picks your own subjective analysis?
Thanks!
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freightdog,
Does your "system" crunch trends, or yards and game stats? Or both?
Is it a computer program? Your own?
Then, do you add your own subjective scouting and analysis?
Or are your picks your own subjective analysis?
Thanks!
Barnstorm, the "systems" are from a computer program that I received from other sources. I have changed the parameters around a bit to fit my own objectives. It does not factor in trends, just stats.
With the 8000 college games every weekend, I can't look over all of them, so this is how I use the program:
I run the numbers, and the systems usually spit out between 10-15 teams a week, plus about 4-8 O/U's a week. I then look over all those games and use my own handicapping methods to try to determine which ones are the "best bets" out of all of them.
So basically, the picks are probably 90% my own, because I don't blindly take the teams the systems spit out. I use the program to narrow my games down (although it does help that the program has picked over 70% winners so far this season).
0
Barnstorm, the "systems" are from a computer program that I received from other sources. I have changed the parameters around a bit to fit my own objectives. It does not factor in trends, just stats.
With the 8000 college games every weekend, I can't look over all of them, so this is how I use the program:
I run the numbers, and the systems usually spit out between 10-15 teams a week, plus about 4-8 O/U's a week. I then look over all those games and use my own handicapping methods to try to determine which ones are the "best bets" out of all of them.
So basically, the picks are probably 90% my own, because I don't blindly take the teams the systems spit out. I use the program to narrow my games down (although it does help that the program has picked over 70% winners so far this season).
Great. Sounds like a good system - Man plus Machine!
Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis.
Good luck. Starting off with 70% winners and fine tuning from there sounds like a winning system.
I like to take my own picks and see how they fare with some of the "Expert" picks, here and there. Helps me weed out my losers.
Thanks!
0
Great. Sounds like a good system - Man plus Machine!
Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis.
Good luck. Starting off with 70% winners and fine tuning from there sounds like a winning system.
I like to take my own picks and see how they fare with some of the "Expert" picks, here and there. Helps me weed out my losers.
Thanks!
FDog,
The Sooner pass defense stats are skewed and don't reflect the fact that Stoops has put 2nd and 3rd team in mid-3rd period thusfar..against Miami late 3rd period.
First team D would have changed those number dramatically...People say Stoops like to poor it on...they used to say the same about Switzer..How can you tell 2nd and 3rd teamers to not score?
Tulsa QB Paul Smith will feel big time heat and OU secondary will display its talent...Look for 2 defensive TDs....
0
FDog,
The Sooner pass defense stats are skewed and don't reflect the fact that Stoops has put 2nd and 3rd team in mid-3rd period thusfar..against Miami late 3rd period.
First team D would have changed those number dramatically...People say Stoops like to poor it on...they used to say the same about Switzer..How can you tell 2nd and 3rd teamers to not score?
Tulsa QB Paul Smith will feel big time heat and OU secondary will display its talent...Look for 2 defensive TDs....
FDog.......You say Sooner D is:
This year:
Scoring 6th
Rushing 7th
Passing 23rd
Total 2nd
Actually its:
Scoring 8.7pts/game
Rusing 44.3yds/game
Passing 135yds/game
Still with 2nd/3rd teamers playing most of 2nd half......Gotta peel back the onion when you're looking at numbers....
If D is weak part of OU team this year....then you just made my case for one explosive offense with 2nd/3rd teamers playing 2nd half:
565 yds/game
241 rush yds/game
324 pass yds/game
2 sacks allowed
61 pts/game
Whew! I rest.....||sleep2.gif' border=0>
0
FDog.......You say Sooner D is:
This year:
Scoring 6th
Rushing 7th
Passing 23rd
Total 2nd
Actually its:
Scoring 8.7pts/game
Rusing 44.3yds/game
Passing 135yds/game
Still with 2nd/3rd teamers playing most of 2nd half......Gotta peel back the onion when you're looking at numbers....
If D is weak part of OU team this year....then you just made my case for one explosive offense with 2nd/3rd teamers playing 2nd half:
565 yds/game
241 rush yds/game
324 pass yds/game
2 sacks allowed
61 pts/game
Whew! I rest.....||sleep2.gif' border=0>
joe, I think your misunderstanding me. First off, I am not playing Tulsa or Oklahoma. Secondly, I am not saying OU has a bad defense, they obviously have a great defense. What I am saying is their pass defense is the weak spot on the defensive unit.
I understand 2nd and 3rd teamers have been playing, but how do you explain their overall defense last year ranking 16th while their passing defense ranked 41st? This was not due to 2nd and 3rd teamers playing more than the starters for the whole season.
JOECAS - I haven't really looked over that game, but the systems have Miami winning by around 4.
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joe, I think your misunderstanding me. First off, I am not playing Tulsa or Oklahoma. Secondly, I am not saying OU has a bad defense, they obviously have a great defense. What I am saying is their pass defense is the weak spot on the defensive unit.
I understand 2nd and 3rd teamers have been playing, but how do you explain their overall defense last year ranking 16th while their passing defense ranked 41st? This was not due to 2nd and 3rd teamers playing more than the starters for the whole season.
JOECAS - I haven't really looked over that game, but the systems have Miami winning by around 4.
barnstorm - GL with your picks. I look over some other posts as well (on here and covers) to get info and see what other people are doing with games I have already selected. By the way, do you fly at all? Just curious about your screenname.
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barnstorm - GL with your picks. I look over some other posts as well (on here and covers) to get info and see what other people are doing with games I have already selected. By the way, do you fly at all? Just curious about your screenname.
Its late, so I will have writeups on these tomorrow. But adding:
Virginia +4
Cincinatti -23.5
Dropped: Tulsa, East Carolina, Arizona, Kent State, and Syracuse (however might toss them into teasers)
Still looking at: Washington, New Mexico State, Iowa, and South Carolina
0
Its late, so I will have writeups on these tomorrow. But adding:
Virginia +4
Cincinatti -23.5
Dropped: Tulsa, East Carolina, Arizona, Kent State, and Syracuse (however might toss them into teasers)
Still looking at: Washington, New Mexico State, Iowa, and South Carolina
Georgia Tech at Virginia (Sat 9/22)
I have some information on this game scattered in this thread, so I'll cut and paste it here so it is all together.
I like this play even if Choice does make the game (obviously I'll be a little more confident if he is out). With or without Choice, they do have depth at RB, but I think they won't have the same "punch" without Choice back there. In an interview on the Jacket's team site, when asked if their gameplan will change if Choice is unable to start, the head coach simply answered "No." Why? One reason is the depth at RB, but another is that during the same interview I got the sense on some other questions that he still is not too confident in his passing game. Virginia has a very good defense, especially against the pass...so if they can slow down the GT running attack a little and force them to the air, they should be able to win outright IMO. After reading the entire interview I mention above, I got one impression: The Jackets (or at least their coach) are not that confident going into this game. That is a big deal if it is the case. Here are a couple of the Q&A's with the coach:
How do you stop Chris Long?
"It normally takes more than one. He's a great player. I saw his daddy for a lot of years. He's got a lot of the same traits. He has excellent technique, great strength, leverage, quickness."
You said after the game that it appears Taylor Bennett had made some improvements. After looking at the tape, in what ways did Taylor steps forward?
"When we were behind, we had to throw the football a lot more. The best way to learn the game is to throw it in game-type situations, and we hadn't had to do that very much in the first two ball games. I thought he made some good reads and did some good things. We haven't arrived in the passing game, but I thought we did some decent things, and we can build on that."
Hamstrings (Choice's injury) can linger. How cautious are you with him?
"You have to be smart. If you get cautious, you can talk yourself out of something. I think smart is a better word. We'll try to be very smart about how we handle this. It's a little bit easier when you've got some guys that have played in games and have been successful in games. Rashaun Grant, Jamaal Evans and Jonathan Dwyer have all been successful in games. So it's a little bit easier to be smart."
How similar, scheme-wise, is the Virginia defense similar to the Notre Dame defense?
"They're both in the 3-4. Other than that, there are not many similarities. These guys have been at it a long time. They're knowledge and technique are excellent. With Notre Dame, this is their first shot at it. They're still learning about it. It's a totally different animal, for lack of a better term."
Here are the trends I posted earlier as well:
Virginia is 13-3 as a home dog since 2000
The Home team is 8-1 the last 9 years in this matchup.
0
Georgia Tech at Virginia (Sat 9/22)
I have some information on this game scattered in this thread, so I'll cut and paste it here so it is all together.
I like this play even if Choice does make the game (obviously I'll be a little more confident if he is out). With or without Choice, they do have depth at RB, but I think they won't have the same "punch" without Choice back there. In an interview on the Jacket's team site, when asked if their gameplan will change if Choice is unable to start, the head coach simply answered "No." Why? One reason is the depth at RB, but another is that during the same interview I got the sense on some other questions that he still is not too confident in his passing game. Virginia has a very good defense, especially against the pass...so if they can slow down the GT running attack a little and force them to the air, they should be able to win outright IMO. After reading the entire interview I mention above, I got one impression: The Jackets (or at least their coach) are not that confident going into this game. That is a big deal if it is the case. Here are a couple of the Q&A's with the coach:
How do you stop Chris Long?
"It normally takes more than one. He's a great player. I saw his daddy for a lot of years. He's got a lot of the same traits. He has excellent technique, great strength, leverage, quickness."
You said after the game that it appears Taylor Bennett had made some improvements. After looking at the tape, in what ways did Taylor steps forward?
"When we were behind, we had to throw the football a lot more. The best way to learn the game is to throw it in game-type situations, and we hadn't had to do that very much in the first two ball games. I thought he made some good reads and did some good things. We haven't arrived in the passing game, but I thought we did some decent things, and we can build on that."
Hamstrings (Choice's injury) can linger. How cautious are you with him?
"You have to be smart. If you get cautious, you can talk yourself out of something. I think smart is a better word. We'll try to be very smart about how we handle this. It's a little bit easier when you've got some guys that have played in games and have been successful in games. Rashaun Grant, Jamaal Evans and Jonathan Dwyer have all been successful in games. So it's a little bit easier to be smart."
How similar, scheme-wise, is the Virginia defense similar to the Notre Dame defense?
"They're both in the 3-4. Other than that, there are not many similarities. These guys have been at it a long time. They're knowledge and technique are excellent. With Notre Dame, this is their first shot at it. They're still learning about it. It's a totally different animal, for lack of a better term."
Here are the trends I posted earlier as well:
Virginia is 13-3 as a home dog since 2000
The Home team is 8-1 the last 9 years in this matchup.
freightdog,
The Barnstorm handle I took from Joe Walsh's old Rock and Roll Band! (This may date me!)
No, I don't fly planes, but working on levitating!
Have you seen and heard Stephen Stills' "Treetop Flyer." Do a search on YouTube for "Treetop FLyer" and choose the second one which shows a guy in his plane flying low along a river.
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freightdog,
The Barnstorm handle I took from Joe Walsh's old Rock and Roll Band! (This may date me!)
No, I don't fly planes, but working on levitating!
Have you seen and heard Stephen Stills' "Treetop Flyer." Do a search on YouTube for "Treetop FLyer" and choose the second one which shows a guy in his plane flying low along a river.
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