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College Ball Week 4

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Posted: #1
OVERALL RECORD: 21-7 +14.5 UNITS Last week: 9-2 +8.2 units Big Laundry list of 14 teams for week 4. The O/U's will come out later. As always, I will be narrowing this down to anywhere between 6-10 plays (give or take). As I stated at the bottom of my wk 3 thread: WORD OF CAUTION to anyone tailing any or all picks, the systems are doing great so far this season, but I DO NOT expect this to continue at the clip it has. If it does, then that is just extra money in the bank! But expect a couple of losing weeks here and there. Basically what I'm trying to say is, DON'T EXPECT 9-2 WEEKS EVERY WEEK. Okay, here's the list to start week 4 (in no particular order): Tulsa, Virginia, East Carolina, Syracuse, Alabama, Arizona, Washington, Idaho, Buffalo, Kent State, Toledo, New Mexico State, Iowa, South Carolina Two teams showed up on 2 different systems: Alabama: System 1 (%) and System 2 (units) Buffalo: System 2 (units) and System 3 (home dogs) Won't have time to discuss much tonight, but will be going over games starting tomorrow morning (already looked a little at Alabama and Buffalo). As always, any insight/stats/trends etc. is welcome! GL ||clover.gif' border=0>||an_cheers.gif' border=0>
 
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Posted: #2
Forgot one: Cincinatti (system 1)
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #3
was already on Tulsa and ECU gl
 
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Posted: #4
GL buddy ||clover.gif' border=0>||Peace_5.gif' border=0>
 
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Posted: #5
WHAT ABOUT KANSAS AND TROY.
 
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Posted: #6
Hey freightdog, notice you have Iowa. I dunno....Iowa went to Iowa State, who got MAN handled by UNI a division IAA team, at HOME...and got beat. Iowa QB Christianson, could NOT find receivers, does not see the field at all. Plus, his thorws were all over the place, to high, too low. Iowa's defense is above average, but I just don't see Iowa scoring On whisky, esp up in Madison. Iowa only scored 1 TD (on a turnover) against ISU, for crying out loud. ISU ran all over Iowa. How is Iowa gonna stop PJ Hill? Just some thoughts..... ||Peace_5.gif' border=0>
 
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Posted: #7
BTW, iowa hawkeye alumni. Follow them closely, go to many of the games. GL
 
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Posted: #8
Appreciate the input bandit. Haven't looked over that game yet, but I will take a note of that info. ||Peace_5.gif' border=0>
 
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Posted: #9
FD, of the games you mention, I think the following are solid plays: Kent State Idaho Buffalo Toledo Cincinnati East Carolina I, however, would not bet on Syracuse with your money FD much less mine. Louisville is coming off of a huge loss to Kentucky and would love to become relevant again. Furthermore, Louisville is a team that loves to cover the spread, and they should pretty much be able to name their score in this one. Syracuse is a woeful football team that has given up on their season IMHO, and are traditionally a terrible road team. Personally I think Louisville covers the 37 by 2 touchdowns, and is one of the easist picks of the week. FD, I would be remiss if I were not to take this opportunity to congatulate you on a truely remarkable week in college football last week. Keep up the great work my friend!!! FREAK OUT!!!
 
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Posted: #10
Bandit, great call on Iowa State last week!!! Send me an e-mail at xxxxxx@xxxxxx.com, and let me know how to get in touch with you. FREAK OUT!!!
 
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Posted: #11
jimmy, I was already thinking to myself that even if I could scrap up some monopoly money, I don't think I would waste it on Syracuse! I'd rather buy Baltic Ave! But the system picked it, so I will do it justice by at least looking over the game. I'm guessing that, unless I find something really strong in favor of the 'cuse, that it will not be a play. ||Peace_5.gif' border=0>
 
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Posted: #12
lol FD!!! It is not my intention to get you to change any of your plays, I'm just offering my opinion for whatever you think that's worth. GL MY FRIEND!!! FREAK OUT!!!
 
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Posted: #13
Oklahoma @ Tulsa (Fri. 9/21) Okay, looked this one over for a while. There are 2 things (questions) in this game that stuck out to me. The 1st one is that Oklahoma has been putting up big numbers, but their first 3 opponents weren't much more than "pre-season" games, with the exception of Miami (a game in which they struggled a bit in the first half). All 3 games were at home as well. Now they hit the road to play a tougher opponent in Tulsa. I'm wondering if this will possibly cause them to struggle a bit, or if the "warm-up" games were actually good, and knocked the rust off. The second one is that Tulsa is coming off of a big win at home against BYU. A game in which their offense shined once again, but their defense collapsed! There is a possible let down spot here for them. They are hurting somewhat in the running game due to the loss of their starting RB in week 1, but their passing offense has been hitting on all cylinders from the start, and the Sooners pass defense is not that great. My gut is saying that +21 might be close, and thinking that this is either a no play, or might put it in a teaser to get +28.5.
 
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Posted: #14
Another "caution flag" on the Tulsa play, is the fact that the line opened at 20.5 and has steadily gone up, and now is at 22.5 at most books. This tells me that not alot of money is coming in on Tulsa so far. For example, I had them on the ML and ATS last week. Despite a pretty good majority of the public being on BYU, the line dropped a .5 point, and the ML came down slightly from +250 to +230 -- good indicators of a live dog. That is not happening in this case.
 
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Posted: #15
I think Oklahoma is the real deal this year. They are loaded on both sides of the ball and their QB is impressive. I don't think Tulsa can keep up.... Just my opinion...
 
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Posted: #16
Something is telling me to stay away from Tulsa this week, so I am. Not saying its a bad play, but with everything I've gathered, I just don't think its that safe of a play. Came up with the first play of week 4: Baylor @ Buffalo (Sat 9/22) I think Buffalo is in a good spot here. This is their much awaited home opener, and "much awaited" is probably an understatement. They started off the season @Rutgers, @Temple, and @ Penn St. That is 2 tough teams away from home, and their performance actually wasn't that bad. They actually outgained Penn St. in total yards last week! (394-393). Now they finally get back home to face Baylor on Saturday. Baylor is coming off of a close win over 1-AA Texas State. In their first 3 games, Baylor has passed the ball for 1065 yards! However, their total yards in those same 3 games was 1242. I'll do the math for you, thats only 177 yards rushing in 3 games! They simply have no rushing attack what so ever. They rely totally on their passing game. This could possibly pose a slight problem in Buffalo. Buffalo only allowed 205.6 ypg last year against the pass, good for 66th in the country. This year, they returned a fully intact secondary, and thus far have given up 203 to Penn St., 177 to Temple, and 324 to Rutgers. I think the Buffalo defense will be able to shut down the 1 dimensional Baylor offense, and possibly pull out the upset at home this week. Buffalo +3.5
 
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Posted: #17
Next Play: Georgia @ Alabama (Sat 9/22) While the Alabama rushing attack has the edge over Georgia, the Bulldogs rushing defense has the edge over Alabama. This should be a good game, and the Bama rushing defense took a hit (literally, and in the stats) versus Arkansas last week. Georgia does not have any RB that can match McFadden. Thus, I give the slight edge to Alabama here. I haven't seen any of the games, but looking through the stats, the Tide just look like they've been playin better ball so far this year. (despite their 4th quarter meltdown last week). I'll take the Tide in a close game at home. Alabama -3 -130 (bought .5 point)
 
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Posted: #18
I think that's a wise move FD. Personally I think the Sooners cover this game. The schedule makers weren't kind to Tulsa. The Sooners are esentially coming off a practice game versus the Utah State Aggies (54-3 victory), while Tulsa was in a slugfest with a very solid BYU team. Furthermore, even though this is a road game for Oklahoma, it's an insigificant one. Tulsa is just 3 hours up Interstate 44, and Sooner fans will probably outnumber Tulsa fans. The short week definitely favors Oklahoma IMHO. Lastly, Bob Stoops is another one of those coaches that loves to cover the spread. Covering the spread is very significant for the Sooners because the are in a 3-horse race for one of the top two spots in the polls. The Sooners are very capable of covering this number, and I believe they will do just that. GL ALL!!! FREAK OUT!!!
 
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Posted: #19
Anyone know anything more about Georgia Tech RB Choice's status for this weekend? Playing or not, and if so how healthy? Pulled up these interesting trends on the GT/Virginia game: -Virginia is 13-3 ATS as a home dog since 2000 -Home team is 8-1 in last 9 meetings between GT/Virginia.
 
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Posted: #20
Just a thought....OU v Tulsa game...this game is on the road for OU, BUT only 1:30 hours from Norman, OK..The crowd at the game will be split..those that cheer for OU games will be there and those that cheer for TU that cannot go to OU games will become OU fans...so basically a home game for both sides...not traveling east west or west to east..but 1:30 hours...TU may keep this one tight 1st half but OU will pull away in the 2nd as TU's Defense is much slower then the offense of OU...but TU does have to WR that can run fast downfield..but again overtime they will tire...OU pts and Over is the play...in my opinion..the line will move up to at least 25 b4 kickoff...beware OU is for real this year and yes they are loaded on both sides... ||an_burningbag.gif' border=0>||an_burningbag.gif' border=0>
 
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Posted: #21
Anyone know anything more about Georgia Tech RB Choice's status for this weekend? Playing or not, and if so how healthy? as of tuesday he was still questionable freight. they have three solid backups though. i was suprised to see this open up at three i mentioned in nropp's thread that this might be a good game to watch line movement. i just see the public hopping on gt... we will see||clover.gif' border=0>
 
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Posted: #22
Georgia Tech is one team that I haven't figured out yet. They killed a bad team in Notre Dame. And is Boston College really that good? That said... Georgia Tech did manage to keep the points down last week even despite Ryan's huge performance.
 
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Posted: #23
Freightdog - Love the call on Buffalo. Buffalo is 1000% better this year than last. I have them winning by 14 at home! Take the points and another ML bet! Love Bama. Georgia is not good at all. Bama finally has an offense this year! GL||thumbs_up.gif' border=0>
 
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Posted: #24
One more note on Oklahoma vs Tulsa. Last I checked Bradford is a redshirt freshman and this is his first road start. I know he is an excellent QB but historically freshman QB's in their first road start make a few mistakes. Even if this is like a home game for OU it still isn't home. I believe Tulsa will capitalize on enough of Bradford's mistakes to keep it inside the number.
 
 
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Posted: #25
hack24 and kobiedog, appreciate the info, I am just not feeling Tulsa for some reason, the most I will do with them is possibly put them in a teaser to get them 4 TD's. Champ - What a game you had for those 50 yardline seats! I was goin crazy just watchin the TV, can't imagine what it was like there. As for the Virginia game, I agree. I did some more reasearch and they do have depth at RB, but I think they won't have the same "punch" without Choice back there. When asked if their gameplan will change if Choice is unable to start, the head coach simply answered "No." Why? 1 reason is the depth at RB, but another is that during the same interview I got the sense on some other questions that he still is not too confident in his passing game. Virginia has a very good defense, especially against the pass...so if they can slow down the GT running attack a little and force them to the air, they should be able to win outright IMO. After reading the entire interview I mention above, I got one impression: The Jackets (or at least their coach) are not that confident going into this game. That is a big deal if it is the case.||Peace_5.gif' border=0>
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