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CFB *wk 5* 20-14-1 YTD

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Posted: #26
oddsmakers fell asleep at the wheel

ULL is better than people think, FAU is really bad...im all over the home team to win by Double Digits here


hope you wouldnt bet more than a 5 dollar ham sandwich on oregon St

Toledo is really beat up physically and mentally and if they chose to go with QB austin danten over terrance owens, that is all i need to know...Temple wins by more than 7 here
 
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Posted: #27
I realize that ULL is better than people think, but this is also a sandwich game between FIU and Troy. I'm pretty happy with FAU +10. 

I had second thoughts about Toledo for the reasons you listed, but every situational inclination was screaming to fade Temple, so I grabbed it when it moved over a touchdown. 

I'm a small-time bettor. My standard unit size is only worth a pair of 5 dollar ham sandwiches. But again, everything's screaming letdown for Arizona State. Even more strongly than the Temple one. 

These would all be multi-unit plays if not for the quality of the opposition, but the spots are still enough to make them plays. I'm also on Kentucky +30, so I'll live and die with bad teams this week. 
 
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Posted: #28
Arid i completely respect that, and no matter the size of the wager the goal is to win money.

at this point. i have made a lot of money auto fading memphis, oregon St and Colorado and will continue to do that until they prove otherwise.

also fade hawaii away from home and bet the over any time kansas, GT or oregon is involved.

i am simply playing against worn down, tired and broken down squads in fading Toledo (who i really do like this year) and FAU, and oregon state is just plain retched.

 
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Posted: #29
**************************************************************
Updated Card
MTSU -20.5
Temple -6.5
Baylor -3.5
Michigan -19.5
No. Illinois -10
Georgia Tech -11
Buffalo +29
Arizona St -17
NT vs Tulsa over 58.5
Tex Tech vs Kansas over 67
UL Layafette -9                                         BIG
**************************************************************


really liking this card this week.



 
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Posted: #30
Yeah, I definitely understand. I keep thinking Mike Riley will pull a game out of his ass like he always does, but if they don't stay within the number here, I won't try Oregon State for at least three weeks (Washington State catches them right between Stanford and Oregon, and would be prime fade material in the unlikely event that they took Stanford to the wire). It's hard to have a better spot than they do this week, although they might manage it--five Pac-12 teams play Oregon State either the week after Southern Cal or the week before a rivalry game. It's a shame that Mike Riley got this kind of schedule the year that he has his worst team. 

I noticed I was with a lot of your leans that didn't become plays--Northwestern, Utah State, Kentucky, New Mexico State. And thinking about Washington State, but Colorado's home/road splits worry me. 
 
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Posted: #31
i found better games to play. still might take New Mexico St, depends on the weather,

Utah St is a no play,

really like Wazzu, i said at the start of the year i think this team could go bowling, and a win @ Colorado to start off Pac 12 play would be HUGE!.

northwestern scares me because QB Persa could be rusty. they also cannot run vs. Illinois. (no body can) and their run D is very bad. not sure what will happen in that game. if the weather is bad, this could get ugly. i like kentucky but the line moved. i was gonna unload on +31 then right as i was gonna do that, it dropped to +29...i stayed away.


only time to play Oregon St is when they play in the civil war against oregon, should be +45 
 
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Posted: #32
 
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Posted: #33
 
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Posted: #34
BOL AMD,


i have seen alot of FAU love and im not sure what people think about why they can cover a single digit spread. these guys are woeful...


 
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Posted: #35
I just looked over the FAU vs UL LA game and I'm a bit intrigued. FAU returns 13 starters with 7 on offense and 5 on defense. They are however without their starting QB. UL LA comes back with 14 starters 7 on offense ( with qb ) and 7 defensive starters. FAU beat UL LA last year, largely because of their previous qb ( 3 tds and no int ). FAU has pretty much zero offense while UL LA has put up some pretty large numbers, including a win at Fla Intl. I actually think UL LA is a bit overvalued here since they just beat Fla intl, they were actually 11.5 underdogs last year at FAU. I'd like to hear your opinion on this game.
 
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Posted: #36
i love ULL in this game,

they are at home, where they usually play well. FAU has played 3 BCS teams, but none of those teams have had scrambling QB's,

ULL's QB is very athletic and had 86 yds rushing along with 230 yds passing vs a very good FIU defense. FAU hasnt had to defend against the dual threat QB all year and i think this ULL guy is due for a huge performance at home...

ULL has 20 tackles for loss in their last 2 games, that is average of about 1 every possession. FAU will be behind the chains alot in this game, and they are very bad on 3rd down this year. (8/37 - 21.6%) this team will not be able to sustain that many drives, and aside from the fact that they have played ALOT on Defense this year, this FAU team is tired. they have played 3 away games, so half of their season thusfar has been traveling. they are not improving, while ULL is improving every week.

as far as ULL getting complacent after their monumental upset of FIU, their head coach Mark Hudspeth is keeping them very humble, saying this “We came to practice last night and I think we got the point across really quick. We put the FIU game behind us early and I let them know that right away. We are not going to lose sight of what’s got us to this point. We are going to focus on the details, and to be honest with you, put the foot on the gas and do even more.”

This is a really big recruiting week for this program and the atmosphere should be really good for the ULL team on saturday night.

this team is also not overlooking FAU, citing that they have played good competition and that their tough schedule is indicative of their 0-3 start.

ULL is really motivated to play well during their 3 game homestand that begins on saturday. FAU has had ULL's number over the last 6 years, and that will also provide extra motivation for ULL to come out fast and keep the throttle down.

I see a really hungry ULL team that has a chance to win the Sunbelt vs. a weak FAU team that is looking forward to playing their 1st home game two weeks from now...


ULL -9                                            
 
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Posted: #37
Thanks for the write-up gl!
 
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Posted: #38
also i forgot to add special teams,

ULL Kicker Brett Baer is 7/7 FGs this year, with a long of 49 and 15/15 extra points, and he is averaging a net of 42 yards per punt...this team is very sound in the kicking game, which i like also.

FAU kicker is 3/4 but strangely enough they have not attempted an extra point this year, and only have scored 17 points thru 3 games, and the FAU offense have only mustered ONE touchdown in three games, a garbage TD when they were down 30-6
 
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Posted: #39
nice card
 
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Posted: #40
 
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Posted: #41
kabise                   


biggiantkiller            




adding to the card


UTEP vs HOUSTON over 66
 
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Posted: #42
i think that LA Tech will hold their own against hawaii.  I have to think back a week ago or so when they actually had a tight game against mississippi state. don't sleep on la tech.
 
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Posted: #43
like la tech also...


7-0 UTEP 3 minutes in!!!
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

like la tech also...


7-0 UTEP 3 minutes in!!!

That drive seemed too easy

 
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Posted: #45
ya de ja vu of two years ago

HOU was -14.5,

UTEP won outright 58-41

feels kinda like that, hope this soars over the total
 
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Posted: #46
Like the card a lot. With you on a bunch of plays. Let's break the book this weekend! 
 
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Posted: #47
 
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Posted: #49
HOUSTON game is 21-21 at half, 24 more points and this baby is OVER


 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

kabise                   


biggiantkiller            




adding to the card


UTEP vs HOUSTON over 66       


1-0 so far early on, nice to head into the weekend with some confidence.
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