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CFB faves...Do they cover ATS when ahead (but not already covering) at HT?

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Posted: #26
I am catching a middle of 3 in the BALL/OHIO GAME FOR WEEK 12.  This would be a no play according to the system as it violates Criteria 3.. 
 
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Posted: #27
Awesome stuff as always kangy!!! Thank you!
 
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Posted: #28
u right.

 
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Posted: #29
 (lots to digest but this system looks awesome)
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by DAWGPRINT:

we have a play tonite kangy? 
We SHOULD have hit last night!
that sucked!

Dawg, that was a rotten loss last night.  Not only would the Niners have covered, they would have won outright.  I didn't put much on the game, but damn did I feel bad for myself, the system and everybody who was on the train.  Perfect 12-0 record down the toilets cause the damn QB can't manage the clock.  But you know you win some in the last minute, you loss some in the last minute.  So, best to move on.  The system is still in tact. 
 
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Posted: #31
Yamda, Burning Thanks!
 
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Posted: #32
Man it was brutal.  That last TD by AZwas bad, but running the ball under a minute to go is assinine!
I loaded up on that half time too....we'd be doing a jig today if it'd come through for us.  that's why they call in gambling. can't do any worse on the stock mkt.  lol
Let's beat that book this weekend my man!

 
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Posted: #33
Good stuff Usakangy
 
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Posted: #34
Update to week 11 stats:

Two games landed in the E-range this past weekend (Oklahoma -10.5 2H and Florida Atlantic -10 2H).  Both teams succeeded in covering the 2H spread, and thus, the game spread.  With these two games added in:

Favorites covering by less than half of the original spread (lower 50th percentile) at halftime ultimately fail to cover the game spread 95% of the time.  Those favorites are still 1-19 ATS.

Favorites covering by more than half of the original spread (upper 50th percentile) at halftime ultimately cover the game spread 94% of the time. Those favorites are now 15-1-1 ATS.
 
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Posted: #35
wow too much homework
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

I am catching a middle of 3 in the BALL/OHIO GAME FOR WEEK 12.  This would be a no play according to the system as it violates Criteria 3.. 


Can you please explain how you got a middle of 3?  Based on your blogs, the middle is the difference between the game line and the half line, in this case, 19.5 for the game, and i think 9.5 was the half line, which give a middle of 10, right?
 
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Posted: #37
Ball state only up 4 last night at half -19.  They were -10 2H and won the game by 15 covering the spread for 2H but not for the game.
 
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Posted: #38
It really doesn't matter if the team covers the original spread since you can't go back in time.  The real stat that needs to be given is how many favorites cover the 2H spread and in what situation.
 
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Posted: #39
The line on covers was -17.5, yielding a 3.5 middle.  The posts I make are for informational purposes.  I know you cannot go back in time. but if you have a site that does live betting, it can serve you well. 
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by peteg:



Can you please explain how you got a middle of 3?  Based on your blogs, the middle is the difference between the game line and the half line, in this case, 19.5 for the game, and i think 9.5 was the half line, which give a middle of 10, right?


From my blog:

Calculating Middles

Use favs as the reference point.  If team A (favorite) is -4 points for game over team B (dog) and team B leads by 3 at the half, then team A's effective in game spread is +3 (losing by 3).  Team A needs to win 2H by 7 points to cover game spread.  If 2H line is team A -2 points, then the middle is the difference between the effective in game spread (+3) added to the 2H line (-2) which makes +1 AND the game spread -4, is 5 points.

MIDDLE = HT Score Team B - HT Score Team A + 2H line for Team A (almost always < 0) - ATS Team A (always < 0)

So let's say, favorite is losing 10-7 at the half and favored by 2 in 2H

MIDDLE = 10 - 7 + (-2) - (-4)
MIDDLE = 10 - 7 - 2 + 4
MIDDLE = 5
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:



From my blog:

Calculating Middles

Use favs as the reference point.  If team A (favorite) is -4 points for game over team B (dog) and team B leads by 3 at the half, then team A's effective in game spread is +3 (losing by 3).  Team A needs to win 2H by 7 points to cover game spread.  If 2H line is team A -2 points, then the middle is the difference between the effective in game spread (+3) added to the 2H line (-2) which makes +1 AND the game spread -4, is 5 points.

MIDDLE = HT Score Team B - HT Score Team A + 2H line for Team A (almost always < 0) - ATS Team A (always < 0)

So let's say, favorite is losing 10-7 at the half and favored by 2 in 2H

MIDDLE = 10 - 7 + (-2) - (-4)
MIDDLE = 10 - 7 - 2 + 4
MIDDLE = 5




Thanks this helps, is this what porky is using to calculate his middles?  When using this exact formula with his original thread on his second half systems, he is getting numbers that are way different then what this formula gives.....
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by peteg:





Thanks this helps, is this what porky is using to calculate his middles?  When using this exact formula with his original thread on his second half systems, he is getting numbers that are way different then what this formula gives.....

In a nutshell, that is the same method.  The difference in numbers may be as a result of where he gets his original lines and 2H lines.  Original game lines are pulled from Covers.  2H lines usually come from VegasInsider.com.  Where people go wrong is that they do not take one team as a reference point when calculating the middle. 

Try it again and see.
 
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Posted: #43
A different way to figure it out is, what is the halftime effective line compared to the 2H line?  In the example above, if team A (line of -4) trails by 3 at the half, then team A's effective line is now -7.  Team A will need to win the 2H by 7 to win the spread.  If the real 2H line is Team A -2, then the difference between that effective line (-7) and the real 2H line (-2) is 5.
 
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Posted: #44
Update to week 12 stats:

One game landed in the E-range this past weekend (Oregon PK 2H).  Oregon had to hold on to cover the game spread however. 

Favorites covering by more than half of the original spread (upper 50th percentile) at halftime ultimately cover the game spread 94% of the time. Those favorites are now 16-1-1 ATS.


Five games landed in the C-range this past weekend (Purdue, Indiana, Toledo, Idaho and Washington St.)  Only Purdue was able to snatch a 2H cover while Toledo pushed.  However, all five dogs won the ATS game cover.

Adding these games:

Favorites covering by less than half of the original spread (lower 50th percentile) at halftime ultimately fail to cover the game spread 96% of the time.  Those favorites are now 1-24 ATS.


C-System plays are now 9-4-1 YTD
E-System plays are now 9-3 YTD

This brings the combined record down to 18-7-1

 
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Posted: #45
Update through week 13:

One game landed in the C-range this past weekend (Syracuse +10  2H).  Syracuse came from behind to not only cover at Notre Dame, but win outright.

Favorites covering by less than half of the original spread at halftime fail to cover that game spread 96% of the time.  Those favorites are now 1-25 ATS.

C-System plays are now 10-4-1 YTD
E-System plays are still 9-3 YTD

The combined record is 19-7-1 YTD with this system.
 
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Posted: #46

Update through week 14:

One game landed in the C-range this past weekend (SMU +7 2H).  SMU (+14) trailed by only a point at the half 7-6.  According to the system, SMISS's effective in game line of -13 and a 2H line of -7 produced a middle of 6 and a play on for the dog SMU.  According to the system, SMISS was to fail covering the full apread of -14.  SMU came out flat and not only handed SMISS a 2H cover, they handed them a game cover.  SMU loses the 2H 21-6.


Favorites covering by less than half of the original spread at halftime with a middl ofat least 6.0 fail to cover that game spread 93% of the time.  Those favorites are now 2-25 ATS.

C-System play (if game line is less than 20 or more than 30) lost soYTD record falls to 10-5-1 YTD
E-System plays (if game line is betwen 20-29.5) are still 9-3 YTD

The combined record is 19-8-1 YTD with this system.

 
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Posted: #47
are planning to play on pro today?
 
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Posted: #48
thanks kangy been watchin" and it has helped
 
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Posted: #49
usakangy,

I have been modeling similar systems with 2nd half lines for about a year now. Do you have a link or can you explain Porky's "play on" theory/strategy? Thanks so much.

Bones
 
 
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Posted: #50
Johnny, check out either my blog area (not the post area), there are links there.  You can get there by clicking on my image.  Also, once you get there, you can get to Porky's page by clicking his image and browse his post area.
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