BYU - UTEP discussion

he clearly knows exactly what he's talking about... ahole!


DU4L... doesn't UTEP have finals?

UTEP's finals ended last week.

For whatever it's worth I get BYU -13 with a total of 47 based on the math (I discounted the off stats from the games the other QB started and also discounted the def stats from the games before Mendenhall started calling his own plays).  I don't really see a reason why to force a play on this game.  

that would be the first reason i've heard to lay off of BYU...

yea maybe hes one of the guys praising you in the PB seems like youve got admirers in there. not any with much respect for your capping ability tho 

No doubt about that!  Been lookin into this game for the past week and can not see anything I like with UTEP. I use an offensive and defensive pure points for all matchups and UTEP has a 9 pure ppg offensive...Thats bad..real bad. BYU in a rout

Against the two opponents closest to BYU in power ratings, UTEP beat SMU 28-14 and lost to Tulsa just 34-31.

Guys guys guys...........whats most important here is Mormon chicks are hot and they tend to not be the jealous types if you want to bang their friends 

yea i noticed those, too... although SMU really isn't that close to BYU... the problem is, against teams like Memphis, UAB, Marshall... they either lost or barely squeaked out a win...

you just don't see that from BYU...

it won't shock me if UTEP manages to get a cover, but it also won't shock me if BYU wins by 40... my chart tells me that BYU has about a 90% of winning by at least 1 TD... which would leave a small margin of error to get a UTEP cover... i'd give UTEP a less than 5% chance of winning the game...

that's funny... on my bowl thread i was going to use "Mormon chicks are hot!" as my write-up... but instead i went with "Mormons don't drink!"... figured that was more relevant to football capping...

The certainly can't buy the drink on Sunday. I spent a week one day a few months back on a Sunday in Salt Lake. No alcohol sales on Sunday and the state owns all the liquor stores...........still some hot chicks though.....they are just to sober for my liking

back when UNLV was a basketball powerhouse in the late 80s early 90s, i went to all their games, including tourneys... one year we had to saddle up in Salt Lake... no alcohol sold after 9pm anywhere...

needless to say, there was a lot of pot smoking going on for those 4 days... not much else, though...

PR's are for idiots in Bowl Games?  Boy do you have a lot to learn. 

I have used them as part of my arsenal for years with great success 

You're not here to bash? Just help people win games?. But Im an idioit for using PR's in Bowl games.

You talk out of both sides of your mouth..... Rookie!

Such success that you dont post any records and looking at your ncaa picks this year I see a hell of a lot more losers than winners. Guess youre arsenal wasnt working to well this year. No rookie here wiseguy. You shouldve learned that in baseball

White Mice is right.  You always start with power ratings, but you're sure to lose in the bowl season if you don't make a WHOLE lot of adjustments before you place a wager, because the line will almost always (with occasional exceptions like the TCU/Wisconsin game) reflect the power ratings.  It's the other stuff that gives you an edge.

Power ratings say TCU is about 12 points better than Wisconsin, and there are no other factors favoring the Badgers.  In fact, the situation as I perceive it strongly favors TCU, and the true line is probably something like TCU -19. 

This game isn't like that.  You have a UTEP team that suffered through a lot of injuries that are largely responsible for the UAB and Tulane results.  They played Houston with Keenum.  These things hurt the stats and power rating.  BYU's power rating and stats are skewed in the other direction by the extremely favorable situation that helped BYU beat SDSU. 

And then there's the U Take 'Em Points factor:

This isn't a new phenomenon -- UTEP's win over BYU in 1985 as a 36-point dog was the biggest upset ever until the Syracuse/UL and Stanford/USC upsets in 2007 -- but under Price favorites of 7 to 17 points in UTEP games are just 25-16 straight up and 14-27 ATS.

On top of that, UTEP finished final exams last week (Wednesday, I believe), while BYU's finals run from Monday through Friday this week. 

BYU is the better team, for sure, and their D has really improved since Bronco took over as DC, but I'm getting 11.5 points.  The only thing holding me back from playing UTEP big is TV's ankle.

I capped it  UTEP -6.Thats why I am on UTEP

What numbers where???

wow!  you are now bashing Wizerguy?  all this does in continue to confirm that you know little beyond what you can look up within the past year... Wizerguy is one of the sharpest guys on this site, and all of the sharp guys on this site will tell you the same...

i know this, because this is NOT my first rodeo... but it continues to be apparent, that this IS yours...


MWS... as i said before, PRs are not my only criteria... if they were, i would not have bet on Fresno, since my PRs have NIU 7 points better than Fresno... this is about looking behind the numbers, which is what i have shown over and over regarding both of the Dec. 18th plays...

you have yet to address this very important fact, and since you do seem to be one of the more knowledgeable guys around here, i would really be interested in what you have to say (as opposed to someone who admits they spend their time in the PB)...

UTEP got into a bowl by winning 6 games... a 6-6 record... these are the teams that they beat (i'm sure you know enough about CFB that i don't need to explain how bad these teams are)...

Arkansas Pine Bluff (Div II)
New Mexico St
Memphis
New Mexico
Rice
SMU


that is one respectable win for a team that achieved bowl eligibility by fattening up on powder puffs...

what's worse than that, is they should have fattened up a lot more... because they didn't just have 6 powder puffs on their slate... they had 9!!!

among others (Arkansas, Tulsa, Houston), they lost to 3 of those powder puffs:

UAB
Rice
Marshall


all 9 of those should be automatic wins... and they were actually lucky to escape Memphis with a win... (incidentally, MWS, i notice you omitted Houston as a team that is in the same range as BYU... they lost by 30 points to Houston, who is actually rated 20+ spots below BYU)

now i agree that your finals week angle is cause for concern... but beyond that, how can you possibly be claiming that "the numbers" are lying here?  BYU is not a powder puff football team... if they can manage to get in some practice time and keep some level of focus on the game this week, they will cover this number...


i am no longer trying to pick people's brains on this game... my bet is locked in, and it won't be unlocked... not trying to change anyone else's mind... but we have a good discussion going here, so any intelligent discussion about the game is valuable to other members... so keep it comin'!

you  like that old 1st rodeo line huh? 2nd or 3rd time youve used it. And i told you before not mine either

Maybe wizerguy is sharp so what. That gives him the right to come at me? He wasnt sharp in baseball when he bashed half the picks I made and if you followed baseball you know how that worked. Let me guess--by your standards I should just sit back and let anyone sling at me huh. And maybe he was sharp. Brett Favre was sharp to. Hows he doing lately

The Houston team that UTEP played was not in the same range as BYU -- they were at a higher level and, imporatntly, had a high-powered offense.  BYU's offense sucks, and they are a big favorite.

yes, that game was before Keenum got hurt, but their defense was just as awful back then, and BYU's defense is miles ahead of Houstons... i really don't see UTEP mustering a lot of offense... i mean, they racked up a whole 16 points against Memphis in a home game...

seems like a fairly even split on this game... guess half of us are going to be surprised by what we see...

how does someone make 10 posts on a discussion thread without once talking about the game, and have the nerve to talk shit about anybody else?

actually, i mispoke... it is about a 90% chance that BYU wins, and about an 80% chance that BYU wins by at least 1 TD... was going from memory, but had it mixed up...