Buddy Plays NCAAF

Went light in week 0 and 1 to see how things go

3* Nc State -2

2* Iowa ML +150

2* A&M Under 51.5

1* Kentucky -5

1* Temple -6'

1* Buffalo +12 

1* SMU -22

GL to all 

Adding : 

1* South Carolina -1'

1* UConn +34

Adding :

1* UAB +24.5

Texas A&M ?

Adding :

1* UVA Under 55.5 

Full Card so far

3* Nc State -2

2* Iowa ML +150

2* A&M Under 51.5

1* Kentucky -5

1* Temple -6'

1* Buffalo +12 

1* SMU -22

1* South Carolina -1'

1* UConn +34

1* UAB +24.5

1* UVA Under 55.5 

Rumor is that the ACC is changing the name of its conference to the Atlantic Shore Syndicate, or ASS, to more appropriately reflect its level of football talent. Having said all of that, there is one burning ember in the ashes that may have some life in it. AHHH WOOOO says the Wolfpack, fresh off of an impressive 45-0 ASSkicking of South Florida. There is a lot to like about NC State, which the all omnipresent Massey Composite has ranked #34. Sitting beneath them in the polls is #51 ranked Mississippi State and it took a shitload of cowbell to save their ass last week against a soft Louisiana Tech team.

Last week the Wolfpack ran up and down the Bulls for 293 yards on the ground and an impossible 7.3 yards per carry. If they can pound the rock like this, then the cowbells will be all quiet in Starkville. Mississippi State turned the ball over six times, and committed 12 penalties for 95 yards – but they still managed to win the game. Now one can look at this two ways. Perhaps we could say that the Bulldogs must have a lot of talent if they can overcome these mistakes and still win – so maybe they are pretty good. On the other hand, one might surmise that this team is undisciplined and that their coach, Mike Leach, is a whack job and this is going to be their modus operandi week to week. I tend to lean towards the latter, especially since they were turning the ball over like flapjacks all last year too.

No matter how sloppy the offensive play was for Mississippi State, their defense just wasn’t very good against a meh offense that scored fewer than 3 touchdowns in half of their games last year. They are going to have to raise their game significantly against NC State and Devin Leary, who complemented the brutal running assault with strong passing accuracy of 65% last week and 8.9 yards per pass attempt to move the chains for 27 first downs. One would think that this offense can really wear out a defense, and I am sure the Pirate emphasized conditioning among his disciplined practice schedule – not.

There’s no doubt that the Air Raid offense being showcased by Mississippi State is tough to stop, but they weren’t stellar last week on 3 down (2 for 8) indicating that soph QB Will Rogers may not have the poise to face a more difficult defensive puzzle which he will certainly see on Saturday night. NC State has 10 returning starters on defense, with their studs camping out in the secondary. If DJ and Howell keep fudging their duds at Clemson and UNC, we might be looking at the best team in the ASS.

Bottom line is that NC State is really the better team in this matchup and they looked great last week. There isn’t much not to like about NC State and there are so many questions that still need to be answered for Miss State, so I am going with the road team and laying the 2 on the Wolfpack.

Can you imagine if this game had been played only a few years ago? Yes, indeed. How far the mighty have fallen. The new Massey Composite index is out, and Nebraska is ranked #75 – right behind UTSA at 74 and Rutgers at 73. And what of Buffalo you might ask? Well, the 20 computer ratings have spit them out at #43. That’s right, the better team is getting 11.5 points in this game. I could stop right there.

And what of Nebraska’s 52-7 destruction of Fordham last week? Shouldn’t we be impressed? Not so fast my friend. Buffalo can do that shit also, beating Wagner 69-7 in week 1. Buffalo’s victory was actually far more impressive, holding Wagner to under 100 yards of offense whereas Fordham found a way to get 297 yards against Nebraska, likely leaving a couple of TD’s on the field.

Last year Buffalo was ranked in the Top 25 as a legit Group of 5 upper echelon team. Nebraska was 3-5 last year and couldn’t even sniff the Top 25. The stars of the Buffalo team last season were their offensive line who sent RB Jaret Patterson to the NFL. His replacement, Kevin Marks actually outgained Patterson in 4 of 7 games last season. The team was ranked #2 in the country in rushing. Four of their starters on the O-line return for this season, along with their starting QB Senior Kyle Vantrease. He was a very efficient 15 of 19 passes thrown last week. On defense, the Bulls return 8 of their top 10 tacklers. These Bulls are not going to go into Lincoln with stars in their eyes. They are coming in snorting for a “W”. I love teams that can go on the road and run the ball and quiet things down in a hurry. That’s what we’ll see on Saturday.

Lurking on the schedule next week for Nebraska is Oklahoma and there is no doubt that Scott Frost is getting calls off the hook from the old boosters about being ready for that game – one of the most hallowed former rivalries in all of the football. It is certainly going to be a distraction this week for Nebraska. By virtue of the fact that Buffalo will be able to run the ball and move the chains, a quick game will be difficult for Nebraska to cover, even if they find a way to beat a better team. Given that they are home, the Huskers will probably find a way to pull it out but their defense, and their front 7, just isn’t good enough to shut the door on anyone and that back door will be wide open for a road team cover. Taking the double digit 11.5 points and Da Bulls for the dog cover.

Speaking of hangovers, Georgia will need a cajun bloodymary to resolve the hangover they got after taking out Clemson. By the way, a cajun bloodymary is a bloodymary with a crawfish in it. Is Georgia a top 5 team, of course they are. But that doesn’t mean they will win by 27 points. In fact it’s hard to fathom how they can cover this spread. UAB is ranked #69 on Massey Composite, nestled right next to Washington State, Tennessee, Tulane, Air Force, San Diego State and Texas Tech. Be honest, would you give any of these teams 27 points against Georgia in a hangover game?

UAB looked remarkably efficient last week and their defense pitched a shutout. When I look at Georgia, I see a dominant team but not a team that has an offense built for blowout spreads. In their 10 games last year, UGA covered a 27 point spread only twice. In their 14 games in 2019, they covered 27 points only 4 times and only 1 of those teams was ranked higher than UAB is now.

Turning to UAB, this game has been circled on their calendar for many months. Their QB, Tyler Johnston is a 4 year starter and a senior. The Blazers ended up getting 371 yards and 3 touchdowns in the air against Jax State. Johnston will be talking about the Georgia game for the rest of his life and he won’t be rattled like DJ was last week. Their defense will make Georgia earn their yards. Last year they were ranked 9 in the country in explosive pass plays allowed. They held their opponents to less than 20 points in 5 of their 9 games played in 2020.

UAB is going to come into Athens looking for respect, and since they played last Wednesday they have had 10 days to get ready. Yes, they will have their share of 3 and outs but if they can find a way to squeak out 10 points, the Dawgs will struggle to cover as they exceeded 37 points scored only 3 times last year. At the end of the day, it’s always about percentages and Georgia hasn’t found a way to cover this number more than 50% of the time…not even close. I’m not going to embarrass myself and say that UAB will find a way to go toe to toe with Georgia. They will likely get punished at the line of scrimmage. However, UAB has 12 seniors who stayed with the program because of the extra year of eligibility and they are returning 16 starters. Spot them 27 points and they will take me to the pay window. Go Blazers!

@iamhuge

 Your position is compelling regarding taking Buffalo and 11.5. The line has steamed to 13.5 now. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Nice insight as always I Am

Adding :

1* UTEP +26 

@iamhuge

You better hope they the State players don’t realize they don’t have dental appointments or study hall.  

Adding : 

1* Maryland -47

1* Tulsa Under 51'

Full Card so far

3* Nc State -2

2* Iowa ML +150

2* A&M Under 51.5

1* Kentucky -5

1* Temple -6'

1* Buffalo +12 

1* SMU -22

1* South Carolina -1'

1* UConn +34

1* UAB +24.5

1* UVA Under 55.5 

1* Maryland -47

1* Tulsa Under 51'

1* UTEP +26 

Adding : 

1* USF +31' (Live)

Week 2 Recap 9-6 +3.2

3* Nc State -2 

2* Iowa ML +150 

2* A&M Under 51.5 

1* Kentucky -5 

1* Temple -6'

1* Buffalo +12 

1* SMU -22 

1* South Carolina -1' 

1* UConn +34

1* UAB +24.5

1* UVA Under 55.5 

1* Maryland -47

1* Tulsa Under 51'

1* UTEP +26 

1* USF +31' (Live)

Week 3 

2* Va Tech ML +125

2* Cincy -3 (-120)

1* ULL -20

1* Florida +15

1* BYU +4'

Adding : 

2* Frenso +11'

1* Iowa Under 56'

1* Wake -5

1* Penn St Under 53'

Full Card 

2* Va Tech ML +125

2* Cincy -3 (-120)

2* Frenso +11'

1* Iowa Under 56'

1* Wake -5

1* Penn St Under 53'

1* ULL -20

1* Florida +15

1* BYU +4'

Adding : 

1* Marshall -10 (+100)

1* Ga Southern +24 (-120)

Adding : 

1* Sparty +7 (-120)

1* Colorado Under 49

Full Card 

2* Va Tech ML +125

2* Cincy -3 (-120)

2* Frenso +11'

1* Iowa Under 56'

1* Wake -5

1* Penn St Under 53'

1* ULL -20  

1* Florida +15

1* BYU +4'

1* Marshall -10 (+100)

1* Ga Southern +24 (-120)

1* Sparty +7 (-120)

1* Colorado Under 49

Adding : 

1* Utah St +9

1* A&M -30'

Adding : 

1* Utah St +9

1* A&M -30'

Adding : 

1* Sac St +24'

Full Card 

2* Va Tech ML +125

2* Cincy -3 (-120)

2* Frenso +11'

1* Iowa Under 56'

1* Wake -5

1* Penn St Under 53'

1* ULL -20  

1* Florida +15

1* BYU +4'

1* Marshall -10 (+100)

1* Ga Southern +24 (-120)

1* Sparty +7 (-120)

1* Colorado Under 49

1* Utah St +9

1* A&M -30'

1* Sac St +24'

Week 3 Recap 13-3 +10.8

YTD 22-9 +14.0

2* Va Tech ML +125 

2* Cincy -3 (-120)

2* Frenso +11'

1* Iowa Under 56'

1* Wake -5

1* Penn St Under 53'

1* ULL -20  

1* Florida +15

1* BYU +4'

1* Marshall -10 (+100)

1* Ga Southern +24 (-120)

1* Sparty +7 (-120)

1* Colorado Under 49

1* Utah St +9

1* A&M -30'

1* Sac St +24'

A couple Va Tech yards away from 1 of my best days ever

Damn bro, i just found your thread! I wish i had been tailing you! You are killing it! I'll definietely tail you from now on, i also had a great day yesterday, up $1400 yesterday. Thanks for sharing  your posts. 

2* Georgia -34

2* Northwestern -14 (-125)

1* Utah St +10 (-115)

1* Arkansas Over 47'

1* Notre Dame +5.5 

1* Wyoming Under 55