Team is coming off of rock bottom and boiiiii were they last year gettin blown to smithereens by Utah before looking fairy inept to UNLV and hitting rock bottom in a BLOWOUT LOSS at home to New Mexico who had an RSW of 1.5 going into last year .. we didn't like their coach at all Desean Foster and they had enough of him in Westwood by then .. didn't sniff a win until a close loss @NU and by then their in-ssn win total was around 1.5 and I'd imagine juiced to the under before a MIRCALE TURN beating Penn State then gathering themselves to slaughter Mich State on the road with a very close but solid win vs a scrappy enough MD team at home to win 3 games ... No wins beyond that but had a close loss vs Nebraska at home and blowouts vs Indy, Wash, OSU and USC after that .. BUT this was a MASSIVE turn and door wide open to build upward into the off season ..
The biggest key is bringing in proven winner Bob Chesney from JMU along with his staff and expect the program to head in the right direction after p!ssing into the wind for years with Foster .. We can trust his OC and OL coach that have been with him most of his rise up from Holy Cross and his DC comes along too he was DB's coach who was with coach Fickle and Marcus Freeman from the start of Cincy's rise up and ultimately their run to the 4-team playoffs as a G5 team .. DB's were so critical and put a few big names like "Sauce" Gardner in the pros .. should be noted that after Cignetti left JMU and took all the best JMU players with him that Chesney still managed a 9 win season the next year and had his own playoff run last year .. Can he turn UCLA around in one year idk but if he's anything like his predecessor they won't be looking to take a mulligan year they'll be looking for a splash landing ..
ROSTER
The real glaring potential problem area is on the DL with top 7 guys grad or xferring out .. they need young guys to step up but have 6 coming in with good experience and JMU bookend DE's Sahir West and Gobaira bring 14 sacks and 54 stops from last year so at least some solid building blocks .. the bigger concern with the number of interior DL's and with the size ..
QB with Nico returning is great I really think putting him with the right coaches can turn things around .. at this pt he should shed the old attitude and accept being an actual leader on team with big potential .. the real key is the room is stacked with potential with Nico's brother Madden and Pierce Clarkson and another RS Soph and if Nico gets injured we still should have some capable outs ..
Rest of the roster looks decent enough with retention and experienced xfers .. RB, DB look like strengths .. LB and WR looks like it has some decent potential and could be strengths .. OL and TE like so many other teams are just a wait and see but really only TE is a concern in terms of actual numbers .. BIG KEY I like is the kicker returns 16/20 and 2/4 from 50+ hit all his PAT's .. I'd expect him to win to put 1-2 games in the W column for us next year if he has similar stats again ..
0
SSN WINS
UCLA OVER 5.5 -144 (FAN)
Team is coming off of rock bottom and boiiiii were they last year gettin blown to smithereens by Utah before looking fairy inept to UNLV and hitting rock bottom in a BLOWOUT LOSS at home to New Mexico who had an RSW of 1.5 going into last year .. we didn't like their coach at all Desean Foster and they had enough of him in Westwood by then .. didn't sniff a win until a close loss @NU and by then their in-ssn win total was around 1.5 and I'd imagine juiced to the under before a MIRCALE TURN beating Penn State then gathering themselves to slaughter Mich State on the road with a very close but solid win vs a scrappy enough MD team at home to win 3 games ... No wins beyond that but had a close loss vs Nebraska at home and blowouts vs Indy, Wash, OSU and USC after that .. BUT this was a MASSIVE turn and door wide open to build upward into the off season ..
The biggest key is bringing in proven winner Bob Chesney from JMU along with his staff and expect the program to head in the right direction after p!ssing into the wind for years with Foster .. We can trust his OC and OL coach that have been with him most of his rise up from Holy Cross and his DC comes along too he was DB's coach who was with coach Fickle and Marcus Freeman from the start of Cincy's rise up and ultimately their run to the 4-team playoffs as a G5 team .. DB's were so critical and put a few big names like "Sauce" Gardner in the pros .. should be noted that after Cignetti left JMU and took all the best JMU players with him that Chesney still managed a 9 win season the next year and had his own playoff run last year .. Can he turn UCLA around in one year idk but if he's anything like his predecessor they won't be looking to take a mulligan year they'll be looking for a splash landing ..
ROSTER
The real glaring potential problem area is on the DL with top 7 guys grad or xferring out .. they need young guys to step up but have 6 coming in with good experience and JMU bookend DE's Sahir West and Gobaira bring 14 sacks and 54 stops from last year so at least some solid building blocks .. the bigger concern with the number of interior DL's and with the size ..
QB with Nico returning is great I really think putting him with the right coaches can turn things around .. at this pt he should shed the old attitude and accept being an actual leader on team with big potential .. the real key is the room is stacked with potential with Nico's brother Madden and Pierce Clarkson and another RS Soph and if Nico gets injured we still should have some capable outs ..
Rest of the roster looks decent enough with retention and experienced xfers .. RB, DB look like strengths .. LB and WR looks like it has some decent potential and could be strengths .. OL and TE like so many other teams are just a wait and see but really only TE is a concern in terms of actual numbers .. BIG KEY I like is the kicker returns 16/20 and 2/4 from 50+ hit all his PAT's .. I'd expect him to win to put 1-2 games in the W column for us next year if he has similar stats again ..
The goals of this team should very much align with our wager in a couple ways.. Regardless of whether players actually play in the bowl, 'making a bowl' is always a big thing in season and UCLA coming off the horrible couple years this feels like a major goal for them .. but bigger yet we have Bob Chesney with a 132-52 record as HC over 16 years and 15 winning seasons .. only losing season was first year at Holy Cross 6-6 reg ssn playoff loss made them 6-7 broke the tie .. Also 15 winning seasons in Conf with first year at JMU 4-4 and given those circumstances we can applaud that effort .. still went 9-4 on the season beating UNC 70-50 in the process .. He wins .. google him ..
I I'd mark UCLA down for 9 winnable with 2 likely >TD Fav vs SDSU and Nevada should be a free square .. also like Nev in week 9 which gives some reprieve during their 8 game stretch the latter part of the ssn .. Bruins otherwise have 4 winnable conf games are at home vs Purdue, Wisco, Mich State and ILL with winnable road gms @MD, @Minny and @Cal in the opener .. Cal's expected to be a tough team this yr with a proven dude QB and they are always tough in their first big noncon .. the smart move maybe to wait till after that game as I'd expect Cal to win this one .. but if Bru can get by them they might be 4-0 heading into their bye week and still have 4 more winnable games at home after the bye and we'd expect this team to become stronger as the season goes along .. the likely losses are pretty apparent. I'd call @Oregon to be a loss off their bye week .. @Michigan looks tough before crosstown showdown vs USC in the finale in the rose bowl .. but by seasons end I'd expect UCLA to be at least a decently formidable team capable of pulling an upset vs USC assuming the Trojans don't become an unstoppable force this year .. But even the @Michigan spot while daunting for the Bru Crew its a potential DOOZIE of a spot for the M's in their 6th str conf game off @Oregon with @OSU on deck .. I'd also note the opponent spots on their winnable games don't look particularly helpful and UCLA might be able to pick a few easy home wins up ..
All told I see it tough for UCLA to manage only 5 or fewer wins this year based on how the schedule is constructed and the decent retention and very strong portal class and new coach .. they have many ways to get to 6 wins and very possible this team turns from looking like an upstart to a dangerous bunch at some point and at least has a shot to pull a big upset late in the year .. GOOD LUCK!!
1
UCLA CONT'D ..
GOALS / SCHEDULE
The goals of this team should very much align with our wager in a couple ways.. Regardless of whether players actually play in the bowl, 'making a bowl' is always a big thing in season and UCLA coming off the horrible couple years this feels like a major goal for them .. but bigger yet we have Bob Chesney with a 132-52 record as HC over 16 years and 15 winning seasons .. only losing season was first year at Holy Cross 6-6 reg ssn playoff loss made them 6-7 broke the tie .. Also 15 winning seasons in Conf with first year at JMU 4-4 and given those circumstances we can applaud that effort .. still went 9-4 on the season beating UNC 70-50 in the process .. He wins .. google him ..
I I'd mark UCLA down for 9 winnable with 2 likely >TD Fav vs SDSU and Nevada should be a free square .. also like Nev in week 9 which gives some reprieve during their 8 game stretch the latter part of the ssn .. Bruins otherwise have 4 winnable conf games are at home vs Purdue, Wisco, Mich State and ILL with winnable road gms @MD, @Minny and @Cal in the opener .. Cal's expected to be a tough team this yr with a proven dude QB and they are always tough in their first big noncon .. the smart move maybe to wait till after that game as I'd expect Cal to win this one .. but if Bru can get by them they might be 4-0 heading into their bye week and still have 4 more winnable games at home after the bye and we'd expect this team to become stronger as the season goes along .. the likely losses are pretty apparent. I'd call @Oregon to be a loss off their bye week .. @Michigan looks tough before crosstown showdown vs USC in the finale in the rose bowl .. but by seasons end I'd expect UCLA to be at least a decently formidable team capable of pulling an upset vs USC assuming the Trojans don't become an unstoppable force this year .. But even the @Michigan spot while daunting for the Bru Crew its a potential DOOZIE of a spot for the M's in their 6th str conf game off @Oregon with @OSU on deck .. I'd also note the opponent spots on their winnable games don't look particularly helpful and UCLA might be able to pick a few easy home wins up ..
All told I see it tough for UCLA to manage only 5 or fewer wins this year based on how the schedule is constructed and the decent retention and very strong portal class and new coach .. they have many ways to get to 6 wins and very possible this team turns from looking like an upstart to a dangerous bunch at some point and at least has a shot to pull a big upset late in the year .. GOOD LUCK!!
Coulda been 10-1 a minute ago, buddy of mine scooped it up .. there's not many shops with PAC Champ odds, think you can find it at DK, MGM, BOL .. I still like the idea for a few reasons and the biggest is we're at 8-1 in an 8 team conference and you look around the win totals and whether books are including (or not including) the final flex game there's really just Boise clearly expected to even make a bowl game and the rest are hovering just above or below the 6 win mark and a number of teams well below .. Boise, SDSU, Fresno seem to be the three with the best shot looking at win totals ..
As for others, Colorado State needs a MAJOR turnaround and still might be below average in the conf .. there's more potential Wash State and Oreg State carrying their formerly P5 Program Prowess into the league but under 50% ret pro / new coaching staffs makes them much more of a crap shoot .. I like the Beavs new coaching staff, but getting the sense they will be in bad shape in the trenches per spring gm notes and yeah they almost can't be worse .. special teams was HORRIFIC, worst in CFB .. a massive turnaround could still fall way short for them .. Utah State 2nd year with Bronco I do like, they opened 40-1 and that's long gone now 13-1 and still don't hate it but again very low production back and they really need to do more with less.. Texas State shows up like a fish outta water IMO, road spots to Boise, Oreg St, SDSU seems like trouble vs opponents who they are totally unfamiliar with.
The things to like with Fresno starts with them bringing Matt Entz from NDSU by way of USC last year .. really solid group too with OC/DC and very robust staff .. we've seen the good FCS HC's and good G5 level coordinators work really well at this level and 2nd year I like the leadership to have a big impact .. decently good continuity and some solid ret pro .. RB Donaldson is a potential MAJOR dude, top 2 WR's .. 3 OL's return including the true FR OT starter last year they really like .. lotta upper classmen which seems to be lacking at many programs .. got 6 back on D and DC Nick Bendetto pitched a MAGNIFICENT D at N.ILL a couple yrs back taking them from HORROR SHOW D to multi-yr improvement and beating ND his final yr before their Natty Runner-Up run .. model-wise they were a top 25 D from the MAC.. no worries there .. SP-Tms with a looong time ST coach solid punter back and they might have Tokyo-Toe 2.0 on their hands bootin FG's .. Watanabe was 21-22 at Ashland college last year long of 59, no blocks .. DUDE.. LET'S GO ..
Schedule sets up a possibility where Fresno could be nothing more than a small dog in 11 games this yr after the opener vs USC .. Can't count on a win vs the Trojans but this at least sets up a chance to look competitive vs a MAJOR B10 team and go onto win a very high number of games .. we know from MW last year how important it is to be ranked high in a multi-team tiebreaker and if its 3 or 4 tms with 1 conf loss Fres has a nice pre-ssn ranking and schedule setup to have their ticket punched ..
0
CONF FUTURES
FRESNO STATE PAC 8-1 MGM
Coulda been 10-1 a minute ago, buddy of mine scooped it up .. there's not many shops with PAC Champ odds, think you can find it at DK, MGM, BOL .. I still like the idea for a few reasons and the biggest is we're at 8-1 in an 8 team conference and you look around the win totals and whether books are including (or not including) the final flex game there's really just Boise clearly expected to even make a bowl game and the rest are hovering just above or below the 6 win mark and a number of teams well below .. Boise, SDSU, Fresno seem to be the three with the best shot looking at win totals ..
As for others, Colorado State needs a MAJOR turnaround and still might be below average in the conf .. there's more potential Wash State and Oreg State carrying their formerly P5 Program Prowess into the league but under 50% ret pro / new coaching staffs makes them much more of a crap shoot .. I like the Beavs new coaching staff, but getting the sense they will be in bad shape in the trenches per spring gm notes and yeah they almost can't be worse .. special teams was HORRIFIC, worst in CFB .. a massive turnaround could still fall way short for them .. Utah State 2nd year with Bronco I do like, they opened 40-1 and that's long gone now 13-1 and still don't hate it but again very low production back and they really need to do more with less.. Texas State shows up like a fish outta water IMO, road spots to Boise, Oreg St, SDSU seems like trouble vs opponents who they are totally unfamiliar with.
The things to like with Fresno starts with them bringing Matt Entz from NDSU by way of USC last year .. really solid group too with OC/DC and very robust staff .. we've seen the good FCS HC's and good G5 level coordinators work really well at this level and 2nd year I like the leadership to have a big impact .. decently good continuity and some solid ret pro .. RB Donaldson is a potential MAJOR dude, top 2 WR's .. 3 OL's return including the true FR OT starter last year they really like .. lotta upper classmen which seems to be lacking at many programs .. got 6 back on D and DC Nick Bendetto pitched a MAGNIFICENT D at N.ILL a couple yrs back taking them from HORROR SHOW D to multi-yr improvement and beating ND his final yr before their Natty Runner-Up run .. model-wise they were a top 25 D from the MAC.. no worries there .. SP-Tms with a looong time ST coach solid punter back and they might have Tokyo-Toe 2.0 on their hands bootin FG's .. Watanabe was 21-22 at Ashland college last year long of 59, no blocks .. DUDE.. LET'S GO ..
Schedule sets up a possibility where Fresno could be nothing more than a small dog in 11 games this yr after the opener vs USC .. Can't count on a win vs the Trojans but this at least sets up a chance to look competitive vs a MAJOR B10 team and go onto win a very high number of games .. we know from MW last year how important it is to be ranked high in a multi-team tiebreaker and if its 3 or 4 tms with 1 conf loss Fres has a nice pre-ssn ranking and schedule setup to have their ticket punched ..
The big risk taking anyone beyond the fav in the PAC is that Boise maybe as good as their pre-ssn SP+ ranking .. or better .. and conf champ game at home will probably make them an enormous fav and level anyone's ticket even for much longer odds than 8-1 that we've got .. tack on a situation with boise where a win = making the CFP and go ahead and bet your bottom dollar that, either by hook or by (pac-12 ref) crook, Boise will be almost unbeatable in the champ game .. But .. I could see Fresno being in a spot to potentially be a top 25 CFP team which could negate some of the negatives there and very possible w their reg ssn matchup being @Fresno that the Bulldogs could be in the driver seat for Home Field .. I could also see Boise, like last year, just not be as good as expected .. Boise was practically a lock pre-ssn to make the CFP last year .. then .. week 1 happened lol and Boise fell flat on their faces @ USF in a BLOWOUT .. and even USF who beat Florida weren't in the AAC champ game after that GREAT START .. Broncos even needed a minor miracle tiebreaker scenario with some mumbo jumbo computer rankings to even make the MW champ game .. We've seen multiple years the pre-ssn G5 darling not make the CFP .. Memphis was in that spot a couple times also and fell flat .. So we have some reasons to let the pre-ssn hype bounce off us when making conf picks ... But yeah there's def a risk that Boise could have a great run and just run off with the league and as the big brand pre-ssn CFP fav if they are in a spot to 'win and yer in' then expect the CFP incentives to crush any shot for an upstart upset in the champ game ..
The other elephant for Fresno is at QB .. I have to trust that with all that coaching prowess that Entz at least had some choices afforded to him in getting a QB this year .. they landed Khristian Martin who was backup QB from Maryland .. some action but very minimal and in fairness with MD getting a MAJOR QB recruit last year it wasn't expected that KM3 would start or play much .. at 6'4 230 he's a biiig dude and completed a few passes last year, TD vs Michigan, etc .. there's no way to be sure what they have at QB until we start playing but I'll say there's some upside here because if this guy can play in Entz's NDSU and his S.Dakota OC's hard nose Mizzz Valley run down their throat brand of football then Fresno is probably in really great shape to contend this year.. The other QB risk that looks scary is backup QBs just don't seem to have much going on.. overall very inexp group and a couple true FR .. potential MAJOR injury risk if Martin goes down .. backup QB is a pervasive risk thru all of CFB now that even hit Boise REAL HARD last year .. you see teams spending the MEGA-BUCKS going big on backups .. LSU getting Sam Levitt and 5 star hussman from USC .. Oregon w their guy back and adding former top recruit starter guy from Nebraska .. T-Tech should feel lucky that Hammond got alot of experience last year and man if he goes down its prob big trouble .. Lotta teams paying big bucks to warm the bench nowadays .. And Fresno prob doesn't have much to work with in that regard ..
0
FRESNO ST CONT'D ..
The big risk taking anyone beyond the fav in the PAC is that Boise maybe as good as their pre-ssn SP+ ranking .. or better .. and conf champ game at home will probably make them an enormous fav and level anyone's ticket even for much longer odds than 8-1 that we've got .. tack on a situation with boise where a win = making the CFP and go ahead and bet your bottom dollar that, either by hook or by (pac-12 ref) crook, Boise will be almost unbeatable in the champ game .. But .. I could see Fresno being in a spot to potentially be a top 25 CFP team which could negate some of the negatives there and very possible w their reg ssn matchup being @Fresno that the Bulldogs could be in the driver seat for Home Field .. I could also see Boise, like last year, just not be as good as expected .. Boise was practically a lock pre-ssn to make the CFP last year .. then .. week 1 happened lol and Boise fell flat on their faces @ USF in a BLOWOUT .. and even USF who beat Florida weren't in the AAC champ game after that GREAT START .. Broncos even needed a minor miracle tiebreaker scenario with some mumbo jumbo computer rankings to even make the MW champ game .. We've seen multiple years the pre-ssn G5 darling not make the CFP .. Memphis was in that spot a couple times also and fell flat .. So we have some reasons to let the pre-ssn hype bounce off us when making conf picks ... But yeah there's def a risk that Boise could have a great run and just run off with the league and as the big brand pre-ssn CFP fav if they are in a spot to 'win and yer in' then expect the CFP incentives to crush any shot for an upstart upset in the champ game ..
The other elephant for Fresno is at QB .. I have to trust that with all that coaching prowess that Entz at least had some choices afforded to him in getting a QB this year .. they landed Khristian Martin who was backup QB from Maryland .. some action but very minimal and in fairness with MD getting a MAJOR QB recruit last year it wasn't expected that KM3 would start or play much .. at 6'4 230 he's a biiig dude and completed a few passes last year, TD vs Michigan, etc .. there's no way to be sure what they have at QB until we start playing but I'll say there's some upside here because if this guy can play in Entz's NDSU and his S.Dakota OC's hard nose Mizzz Valley run down their throat brand of football then Fresno is probably in really great shape to contend this year.. The other QB risk that looks scary is backup QBs just don't seem to have much going on.. overall very inexp group and a couple true FR .. potential MAJOR injury risk if Martin goes down .. backup QB is a pervasive risk thru all of CFB now that even hit Boise REAL HARD last year .. you see teams spending the MEGA-BUCKS going big on backups .. LSU getting Sam Levitt and 5 star hussman from USC .. Oregon w their guy back and adding former top recruit starter guy from Nebraska .. T-Tech should feel lucky that Hammond got alot of experience last year and man if he goes down its prob big trouble .. Lotta teams paying big bucks to warm the bench nowadays .. And Fresno prob doesn't have much to work with in that regard ..
Little late to the party we coulda been 5.5 -150 which I was ready to go nuclear on .. run final checks and boom poof be gone .. if not familiar with the pac win totals, I'm told by someone who asked MGM that this win total number is for all 12 gms, so flex gm finale is included .. not the case at DK .. which has the same number .. will it get clawed back idk but after a look at this team this is clearly still a number worth playin ..
For what we discussed above .. also got a peek at the QB Khristian Martin from his spring game last year with MD .. Just gunna call it now and say this guy looks like a solid DUDE who could probably lead a number of P4 program .. we wondered above whether Matt Entz 'got his guy' given the QB's have so little live reps .. I think he could be one of the big G5 stories of the season and highly sought after xfer into next year .. give me a little wiggle room here .. or maybe some rope to hang myself lol ... but the guy looked in total command of the spring squad last year .. got far and away the most drives and looked very sharp running the read option with the handoffs and ON THE MONEY with all the passes good mix of short balls, mid routes, long balls no problem, moves real well in/out of the pocket creates space can hit on the run or take off good movement for a big BIIIG guy. KM also had a final drive vs Mich it was garbage time but 3-3 with 2 really nice long hits with a TD .. it makes sense Terps hitched their wagon to M-Wash but I think they'd have been over 60% pass completions and won more games with K-Mart and our dude needed to xfer as a guy whose ready to be QB1 and right move to make a stop in G5 to ensure he can showcase himself on the field and not lose a starting spot again to some better recruit rankings or bigger NIL spend..
Fast fwd to spring Fresno's Bark Board had their top 10 attn grabbers of the spring and #1 was our dude and beyond the accuracy they notice the leadership level with a few players providing quotes .. coaches had alot to say about that as well .. he showed up and became a leader on a team with alot of continuity, some big stars and many upper classmen and has the skills .. I didn't have nearly this level of confidence in a QB last year when we were raving San Diego State, Dennegal was a huge ? and this doesn't seem that way ..
The other big concern with backup QB seems to be cleared up a little .. 2nd attn grab story on Bark was Jaden Mandel's progress .. he started their bowl 2 yrs ago and was injured last year, but reports liked what they saw and he's another multi year Bulldog team leader .. Unclear how good he is but given we don't have much to go on this report at least validates him as a guy who can prob step in if K-Mart goes down and while he doesn't have the reps he's also not truly coming in off the bench either .. so QB1 and QB2 is a massively better sounding deal compared to first glance of this team .. and a big reason to think books had under-valued this team early on ..
0
SSN WINS
FRESNO ST OVER 6.5 +110 (MGM)
Little late to the party we coulda been 5.5 -150 which I was ready to go nuclear on .. run final checks and boom poof be gone .. if not familiar with the pac win totals, I'm told by someone who asked MGM that this win total number is for all 12 gms, so flex gm finale is included .. not the case at DK .. which has the same number .. will it get clawed back idk but after a look at this team this is clearly still a number worth playin ..
For what we discussed above .. also got a peek at the QB Khristian Martin from his spring game last year with MD .. Just gunna call it now and say this guy looks like a solid DUDE who could probably lead a number of P4 program .. we wondered above whether Matt Entz 'got his guy' given the QB's have so little live reps .. I think he could be one of the big G5 stories of the season and highly sought after xfer into next year .. give me a little wiggle room here .. or maybe some rope to hang myself lol ... but the guy looked in total command of the spring squad last year .. got far and away the most drives and looked very sharp running the read option with the handoffs and ON THE MONEY with all the passes good mix of short balls, mid routes, long balls no problem, moves real well in/out of the pocket creates space can hit on the run or take off good movement for a big BIIIG guy. KM also had a final drive vs Mich it was garbage time but 3-3 with 2 really nice long hits with a TD .. it makes sense Terps hitched their wagon to M-Wash but I think they'd have been over 60% pass completions and won more games with K-Mart and our dude needed to xfer as a guy whose ready to be QB1 and right move to make a stop in G5 to ensure he can showcase himself on the field and not lose a starting spot again to some better recruit rankings or bigger NIL spend..
Fast fwd to spring Fresno's Bark Board had their top 10 attn grabbers of the spring and #1 was our dude and beyond the accuracy they notice the leadership level with a few players providing quotes .. coaches had alot to say about that as well .. he showed up and became a leader on a team with alot of continuity, some big stars and many upper classmen and has the skills .. I didn't have nearly this level of confidence in a QB last year when we were raving San Diego State, Dennegal was a huge ? and this doesn't seem that way ..
The other big concern with backup QB seems to be cleared up a little .. 2nd attn grab story on Bark was Jaden Mandel's progress .. he started their bowl 2 yrs ago and was injured last year, but reports liked what they saw and he's another multi year Bulldog team leader .. Unclear how good he is but given we don't have much to go on this report at least validates him as a guy who can prob step in if K-Mart goes down and while he doesn't have the reps he's also not truly coming in off the bench either .. so QB1 and QB2 is a massively better sounding deal compared to first glance of this team .. and a big reason to think books had under-valued this team early on ..
The final box I like to check with RSW's is special teams .. Entz and his band of solid FCS coaches didn't over-look this and have a dedicated long time coordinator whose hopped between Fresno and USC for a few years and seems to have a few specialists .. the ONE I always check is FG-Kicker and the dude they got Manaki "The Samurai" Watanabe is a deep under the radar kicker from little Ashton college who sliced and diced his way to hitting 21/22 FG's last year including a 59 YARD KAMAKAZI BOMB which cleared by an extra yard or two .. and not lucky he hit another from 50 a bunch in the 40's was 8/7 from 30-40 yds out .. won various kicker camps and those camp coaches said he was darn near perfect .. totally overlooked position that literally puts W's in the W column and this guy might swing 3-4 games our way this year if he looks like The Tokyo-Toe 2.0 again this year ..
As for the schedule .. outside of USC there's 11 winnable and of those I think Fresno will be favored in 8-9 of them and a >7 point fav in 5 of those .. small dog in 2 .. lotta shots on goal and won't take much improvement in the SP ratings before we project them as favorites in 10 or .. 11 games .. and w the flex finale you got an SDSU team going B2B hardest roadies of the year into Fresno for a game that doesn't count for conf and possibly already beat Fres at home earlier in the year .. so if SDSU is not in a win-and-in for bowl spot then its just a massive revenge-laden super dead spot road finale spot for the Aztecs and I'd go ahead and count it as a WIN for Fresno now lol..
0
FRESNO ST CONT'D ..
Lotta Fresno talk here lol ..
The final box I like to check with RSW's is special teams .. Entz and his band of solid FCS coaches didn't over-look this and have a dedicated long time coordinator whose hopped between Fresno and USC for a few years and seems to have a few specialists .. the ONE I always check is FG-Kicker and the dude they got Manaki "The Samurai" Watanabe is a deep under the radar kicker from little Ashton college who sliced and diced his way to hitting 21/22 FG's last year including a 59 YARD KAMAKAZI BOMB which cleared by an extra yard or two .. and not lucky he hit another from 50 a bunch in the 40's was 8/7 from 30-40 yds out .. won various kicker camps and those camp coaches said he was darn near perfect .. totally overlooked position that literally puts W's in the W column and this guy might swing 3-4 games our way this year if he looks like The Tokyo-Toe 2.0 again this year ..
As for the schedule .. outside of USC there's 11 winnable and of those I think Fresno will be favored in 8-9 of them and a >7 point fav in 5 of those .. small dog in 2 .. lotta shots on goal and won't take much improvement in the SP ratings before we project them as favorites in 10 or .. 11 games .. and w the flex finale you got an SDSU team going B2B hardest roadies of the year into Fresno for a game that doesn't count for conf and possibly already beat Fres at home earlier in the year .. so if SDSU is not in a win-and-in for bowl spot then its just a massive revenge-laden super dead spot road finale spot for the Aztecs and I'd go ahead and count it as a WIN for Fresno now lol..
Small limit at BOL for the G5'ers maybe you can bet more .. I don't see anything about this being limited to 11 games in their season notes the way DK has .. but I'm not totally sure .. I can still stab at this win total for this price even if its just for .25 units the juice is now -105 still a better deal than -155 which DK has for stated 11 games and which MGM has tailed .. These odds won't be around toooo long so I'd grab earlier than later .. the final flex game in question is slated to be a roadie vs Utah State and thru process of elim where no team can play same opponent in the same venue twice then this is the matchup .. PAC officials however won't be official on the flex matchup until SIX DAYS BEFORE!!! .. MAN-O-MAN .. if Boise is in a spot to make the CFP I can't see them playing a switch-a-roo on them and putting them on the road to some other opponent .. if they aren't in for CFP then no reason to change it .. all the 'expected' matchups for PAC finale are not adjustable unless they change that 'can't play twice at the same venue' rule too and it would be really unfair to change it up with really less than 5 days to prep or know where you're going .. my money says all the flex games expected will play out as expected .. maybe Wash State moves their home game to Seattle .. their AD says they DONT WANT a home game EVER over thanksgiving lol .. What he means is Moscow Idaho is a bit dead over that weekend and they'd rather play where the fans are .. but they're already selling tickets to that game and even moving a game will create some problems ..
Anyway I have Boise as very good again and rightfully the odds on fav in the conf .. for now .. they have only 1 clear loss playing Oregon but they should be SIGNIFICANT favs in most of their games .. SP+ has them an average of 13 point fav in 10 games .. FCS game vs S.Dakota is a lock win .. only game < a TD is the roadie vs Fresno .. fingers xx'd for the Bulldogs .. SP+ HFA Adjusted I have it Boise -5 points but I could see it being closer than that .. but point is they could very well be 11-1 this year if they're anything close to their rating .. it appears BOL is just copying DK's G5 numbers and do not note the flex game doesn't count the way they do .. would screen shot the play and any notes on the website just in case but I think pretty good chance this gets thru .. and what can I say it feels like a free quarter .. if not then I'd say Fresno won their home game and Boise probably also tanks to Memphis, @Wash State, and either the finale @Utah State or home matchup vs SDSU .. could be but man .. would be a much bigger FACE PLANT than they did last year and maybe worst season overall in .. idk .. sans covid where they were 5-2 and woulda got there in a 12 gm ssn they've had 1 reg ssn that wouldn't hit this win total since 1999 .. 2001 they had 7 reg ssn wins .. so were basically like 25-1 going 8+ reg ssn wins w the broncos and the 1 was barely .. better than not bad .. its far and away the best record over any similar time span in CFB history .. so yeah not a lock but ...
0
SSN WINS
BOISE STATE OVER 7.5 +105 (BOL)
Small limit at BOL for the G5'ers maybe you can bet more .. I don't see anything about this being limited to 11 games in their season notes the way DK has .. but I'm not totally sure .. I can still stab at this win total for this price even if its just for .25 units the juice is now -105 still a better deal than -155 which DK has for stated 11 games and which MGM has tailed .. These odds won't be around toooo long so I'd grab earlier than later .. the final flex game in question is slated to be a roadie vs Utah State and thru process of elim where no team can play same opponent in the same venue twice then this is the matchup .. PAC officials however won't be official on the flex matchup until SIX DAYS BEFORE!!! .. MAN-O-MAN .. if Boise is in a spot to make the CFP I can't see them playing a switch-a-roo on them and putting them on the road to some other opponent .. if they aren't in for CFP then no reason to change it .. all the 'expected' matchups for PAC finale are not adjustable unless they change that 'can't play twice at the same venue' rule too and it would be really unfair to change it up with really less than 5 days to prep or know where you're going .. my money says all the flex games expected will play out as expected .. maybe Wash State moves their home game to Seattle .. their AD says they DONT WANT a home game EVER over thanksgiving lol .. What he means is Moscow Idaho is a bit dead over that weekend and they'd rather play where the fans are .. but they're already selling tickets to that game and even moving a game will create some problems ..
Anyway I have Boise as very good again and rightfully the odds on fav in the conf .. for now .. they have only 1 clear loss playing Oregon but they should be SIGNIFICANT favs in most of their games .. SP+ has them an average of 13 point fav in 10 games .. FCS game vs S.Dakota is a lock win .. only game < a TD is the roadie vs Fresno .. fingers xx'd for the Bulldogs .. SP+ HFA Adjusted I have it Boise -5 points but I could see it being closer than that .. but point is they could very well be 11-1 this year if they're anything close to their rating .. it appears BOL is just copying DK's G5 numbers and do not note the flex game doesn't count the way they do .. would screen shot the play and any notes on the website just in case but I think pretty good chance this gets thru .. and what can I say it feels like a free quarter .. if not then I'd say Fresno won their home game and Boise probably also tanks to Memphis, @Wash State, and either the finale @Utah State or home matchup vs SDSU .. could be but man .. would be a much bigger FACE PLANT than they did last year and maybe worst season overall in .. idk .. sans covid where they were 5-2 and woulda got there in a 12 gm ssn they've had 1 reg ssn that wouldn't hit this win total since 1999 .. 2001 they had 7 reg ssn wins .. so were basically like 25-1 going 8+ reg ssn wins w the broncos and the 1 was barely .. better than not bad .. its far and away the best record over any similar time span in CFB history .. so yeah not a lock but ...
Got the good odds at BOL who I assume is using a 12 game season .. MGM however has confirmed to a pal of mine that their win totals are for a full 12 games .. I think some books saw DK and stupidly copied them without seeing their *11 game reg ssn note .. MGM has adjusted Fresno a full game above what DK has but Boise hasn't moved and the final flex 11th game seems likely to be a roadie vs Utah State .. it is a bit of a spot coming off a big home game vs SDSU and let's assume Boise is sitting at 7 wins the final flex game does seem like a real dead spot .. made a bowl going on the road finale out of the playoff hunt that doesn't count for the conf standings .. and trust me the Aggies will absolutely want to win this one just to beat Boise, they've been so close over the years and just get smacked around .. Boise has beaten them 23 in a row back to 1997 .. but never have they been in a dead spot like this would be ..
All that said ... Boise sounds like a really well put together team and they have lost some major firepower from last year's team WR and the secondary needs to get rebuilt .. but the QB is solid and very experienced, they were a MUCH diff team without him last year so there's some fingers xx'd that maddox doesn't get hurt again .. but also hearing some promising news from spring and the spring game maaaan they look physical and tough .. love a good 1-2 punch at RB and they have one led by Dylan Riley and Sire Gains .. they have a MAJOR PLAYMAKER at EDGE in Jayden Virgin-Morgen and a very good TE with Wagner .. we also like that their ret pro is not decimated like some other teams across G5 .. er .. G6 this year ..
My SP+ adjusted schedule says 9.2 wins we're getting a deal on that plus the extra game .. Boise pre-ssn is a massive dog to Oregon and from there only ~ a TD fav in 2 games and well over 10 for the rest so even if the rating is too high there's alot of wiggle room there .... I also like that Broncos have an FCS game after Memphis which might be a welcome break after a fast start .. well placed bye week 7 .. and no team has a bye or fcs game preceeding them .. There's a few worry spots on the schedule @Fresno, @Wash State .. but home vs Texas St and SDSU in the "conf finale" revenge on the blue turf feels pretty good .. also expect a dive maybe a deep dive for Memphis, W.Mich and Wash State this year and while Oreg State maybe stronger they have a long way to go to be good .. also not sure SDSU's D will be nearly as good which the team was built around LY .. it does feel like we can lay the extra juice here -160 knowing this RSW probably could end up around that for an even 8 wins when more books open their PAC RSW's up .. and as said previously they're like 25-1 going 8 reg ssn wins and as G6 gets plundered they seem to still be doing okay ..
0
SSN WINS
BOISE STATE OVER 7.5 -160 (MGM)
Got the good odds at BOL who I assume is using a 12 game season .. MGM however has confirmed to a pal of mine that their win totals are for a full 12 games .. I think some books saw DK and stupidly copied them without seeing their *11 game reg ssn note .. MGM has adjusted Fresno a full game above what DK has but Boise hasn't moved and the final flex 11th game seems likely to be a roadie vs Utah State .. it is a bit of a spot coming off a big home game vs SDSU and let's assume Boise is sitting at 7 wins the final flex game does seem like a real dead spot .. made a bowl going on the road finale out of the playoff hunt that doesn't count for the conf standings .. and trust me the Aggies will absolutely want to win this one just to beat Boise, they've been so close over the years and just get smacked around .. Boise has beaten them 23 in a row back to 1997 .. but never have they been in a dead spot like this would be ..
All that said ... Boise sounds like a really well put together team and they have lost some major firepower from last year's team WR and the secondary needs to get rebuilt .. but the QB is solid and very experienced, they were a MUCH diff team without him last year so there's some fingers xx'd that maddox doesn't get hurt again .. but also hearing some promising news from spring and the spring game maaaan they look physical and tough .. love a good 1-2 punch at RB and they have one led by Dylan Riley and Sire Gains .. they have a MAJOR PLAYMAKER at EDGE in Jayden Virgin-Morgen and a very good TE with Wagner .. we also like that their ret pro is not decimated like some other teams across G5 .. er .. G6 this year ..
My SP+ adjusted schedule says 9.2 wins we're getting a deal on that plus the extra game .. Boise pre-ssn is a massive dog to Oregon and from there only ~ a TD fav in 2 games and well over 10 for the rest so even if the rating is too high there's alot of wiggle room there .... I also like that Broncos have an FCS game after Memphis which might be a welcome break after a fast start .. well placed bye week 7 .. and no team has a bye or fcs game preceeding them .. There's a few worry spots on the schedule @Fresno, @Wash State .. but home vs Texas St and SDSU in the "conf finale" revenge on the blue turf feels pretty good .. also expect a dive maybe a deep dive for Memphis, W.Mich and Wash State this year and while Oreg State maybe stronger they have a long way to go to be good .. also not sure SDSU's D will be nearly as good which the team was built around LY .. it does feel like we can lay the extra juice here -160 knowing this RSW probably could end up around that for an even 8 wins when more books open their PAC RSW's up .. and as said previously they're like 25-1 going 8 reg ssn wins and as G6 gets plundered they seem to still be doing okay ..
Why not put more eggs on these guys I'm already getting court martialed if they stink, might as well bask in the glory if they're better than expected .. There is a risk that USC could just roll up any smaller team for a massive win, they have some very good proj breakout players big time recruits etc and Lincoln R. is not always merciful like that other A. Lincoln was .. could drop some boomhammers at the end to get a big home cover ..
All that said really do like Fresno think they're a bit underrated this year and if the potential all-star coaching crew has formulated on the team .. high team leadership potential, we like the breakout potential with an accurate QB and we have a surprise FG-K we hope carries his records into this year .. it def adds up to a team that can cover a big number like this .. And while CFP playoffs are a huge goal and loooong way off .. If Fres has the mojo this year then it really is 'why not us' they have the potential for wins and a BIG P4 name to start the ssn .. can get on a lotta radars real quick if they can just stay in this one ..
1
SMALLER
USC / FRESNO +23.5
Why not put more eggs on these guys I'm already getting court martialed if they stink, might as well bask in the glory if they're better than expected .. There is a risk that USC could just roll up any smaller team for a massive win, they have some very good proj breakout players big time recruits etc and Lincoln R. is not always merciful like that other A. Lincoln was .. could drop some boomhammers at the end to get a big home cover ..
All that said really do like Fresno think they're a bit underrated this year and if the potential all-star coaching crew has formulated on the team .. high team leadership potential, we like the breakout potential with an accurate QB and we have a surprise FG-K we hope carries his records into this year .. it def adds up to a team that can cover a big number like this .. And while CFP playoffs are a huge goal and loooong way off .. If Fres has the mojo this year then it really is 'why not us' they have the potential for wins and a BIG P4 name to start the ssn .. can get on a lotta radars real quick if they can just stay in this one ..
Mizz got some tough news regarding Hardy .. unclear what the status is on that but they have a RB2 who was IMO just as awesome and will carry a big load this year if called upon .. Can't say Mizzoo is better this year overall but the trajectory of this team and the moves they're making signals they aren't going back to the basement and Austin Simmons is prob a better option than Prib was .. hopefully .. Prib was good vs this level of comp last year but really struggled vs SEC secondaries and pressures .. we also can't just look at what MIZZ became last year and project to this yr .. they lost Prib down the stretch and it was a slowwww grind from there and got tripped up in the bowl vs a VERY MOTIVATED UVA team while Mizz was playing a bit ho-humm .. expect offense to come out more humm than we remember
Tigers got into HUGE trouble at home in this game last year off some turnover trouble and down a couple scores and given the HUGE REVIVALRY of these states / former conf foes, etc one had to wonder if KU was gunna pull off a stunner .. alas DA'ZOO gathered themselves and not only covered -8 but did so handily ..
I get the sense KU maybe in a bit of trouble this year .. IN LEIPOLD WE TRUST as KU was 2 TD Dogs in conf to every team was a money-maker .. but my sense is the school isin't happy with all the football money .. its still ROCK SHOCK B-BALL in Lawrence all the way and CFB will always take a back seat .. we expected a drop off last year and for the most part we got that .. we expect more drop off this year with some units .. there's no doubt Lance gets the most out of his guys so happy to get this under -6 for a big home game ..
Spot is really interesting with KU going across the pond in WK 3 to play ASU in England which is unusual we see foreign soil games week zero / wk1 and that probably complicates things a bit .. so ALOT goin on as they prep for this big game and I'd expect KU will be fully into this big revenge rivalry home game but wouldn't surprise me if there's some look-ahead related snafu's on KU's part with a very wacky conf opener spot on deck...
Check Hard Rock .. they had -3.5 for a bit .. I'd love that number but I can only bet $1.77 and the min bet is $2 .. this should of course be illegal so give them a smack for me .. GOOD LUCK!
1
SMALLER
KANSAS / MISSOURI -5.5 WK2
Mizz got some tough news regarding Hardy .. unclear what the status is on that but they have a RB2 who was IMO just as awesome and will carry a big load this year if called upon .. Can't say Mizzoo is better this year overall but the trajectory of this team and the moves they're making signals they aren't going back to the basement and Austin Simmons is prob a better option than Prib was .. hopefully .. Prib was good vs this level of comp last year but really struggled vs SEC secondaries and pressures .. we also can't just look at what MIZZ became last year and project to this yr .. they lost Prib down the stretch and it was a slowwww grind from there and got tripped up in the bowl vs a VERY MOTIVATED UVA team while Mizz was playing a bit ho-humm .. expect offense to come out more humm than we remember
Tigers got into HUGE trouble at home in this game last year off some turnover trouble and down a couple scores and given the HUGE REVIVALRY of these states / former conf foes, etc one had to wonder if KU was gunna pull off a stunner .. alas DA'ZOO gathered themselves and not only covered -8 but did so handily ..
I get the sense KU maybe in a bit of trouble this year .. IN LEIPOLD WE TRUST as KU was 2 TD Dogs in conf to every team was a money-maker .. but my sense is the school isin't happy with all the football money .. its still ROCK SHOCK B-BALL in Lawrence all the way and CFB will always take a back seat .. we expected a drop off last year and for the most part we got that .. we expect more drop off this year with some units .. there's no doubt Lance gets the most out of his guys so happy to get this under -6 for a big home game ..
Spot is really interesting with KU going across the pond in WK 3 to play ASU in England which is unusual we see foreign soil games week zero / wk1 and that probably complicates things a bit .. so ALOT goin on as they prep for this big game and I'd expect KU will be fully into this big revenge rivalry home game but wouldn't surprise me if there's some look-ahead related snafu's on KU's part with a very wacky conf opener spot on deck...
Check Hard Rock .. they had -3.5 for a bit .. I'd love that number but I can only bet $1.77 and the min bet is $2 .. this should of course be illegal so give them a smack for me .. GOOD LUCK!
Shop around the week 1 lines are coming out .. seeing some 9.5's and I'd expect this to land sub 10, maybe 7.5 or 8.5 .. I'm not deeply familiar with both teams yet and my initial worry is JVILLE's roster situation could have them in a spot where things that used to work are not in good shape coming into this year .. But what we can stand on is a JVILLE program that has been underestimated every year since it came into FBS .. Rich Rod did an excellent job year 1 with a bevvy of true FR on his OL and year 2 had the CUSA Champ year with 2nd LT HUFF commanding the offense and a D that was nasty .. we expected a huge drop off last year with the new coach and very low ret pro .. they had a difficult time rebuilding the D, but Rich Rod's OC took over at HC and they turned in one of the better run games in CFB with Cook beating Hardy for most broken tackles in cfb award and nearly a win in the CUSA champ game when we firmly expected these guys to take a dump and stink last yr .. big picture this isint a hit and miss football program in FCS and that's continued into G5 ..
NDSU has proven multiple times they can hang with the mid tier of FBS P5 teams and dominate in FCS .. they won the champ game 2 yrs ago but they haven't been anything close to the outlier they were in recent years as SDSU came up in the covid / post covid years, and took some losses that were unexpected, albeit generally to the eventual FBS champs or runners up .. very good run still but very much a mortal FCS team .. They lose quite a bit of their top producers from last year and they aren't immune to the portal taking more than it gives them. Expectations seem to be on par with what JMU accomplished when they STORMED THE SUN BELT .. consider the biggest most obvious diff that they had Psycho Ciggy and retained a number of star players and new QB was a great fit .. JMU also knew well over a year prior they were moving up to FCS .. NDSU formally invited to the MW and announced their move 4 months ago .. schedule was not finalized until March .. late schedule update impacts JVILL as well but NDSU has a TOTALLY INSANE task of being ready for opponents this yr.. its unclear if no post-ssn expectations impact their retention given the timing but I'm not sure this team in FBS is more attractive than one thats used hoisting natty hardware .. They also lose the MAJOR parts of their offense w the QB, RB, WR in the pros and all the O Prod was centered around them. Jackson Williams is a star return man and contrib WR has to step up .. they also retain a great TE but a number of 'next up' WR tgts they'd want to have are gone .. OL-C and T shipped to P4 squads .. PFF grades on the others starters shows a mixed bag and the backups have very poor grades in mop up action .. D also got hit with about half the starting / major contrib reps gone incl the clear best pass rusher and better cover guys .. lost their FG Kicker to Iowa .. career backup on deck could easily be the diff covering .. or winning.. all that said kickoff in Fargo Dome for First ever FBS year its one of the most important games for program that has a long list of big important games .. I just could see a situation where the typical domination is not on display ..
1
SMALLER
NDSU / JVILLE ST +10 (B365)
Shop around the week 1 lines are coming out .. seeing some 9.5's and I'd expect this to land sub 10, maybe 7.5 or 8.5 .. I'm not deeply familiar with both teams yet and my initial worry is JVILLE's roster situation could have them in a spot where things that used to work are not in good shape coming into this year .. But what we can stand on is a JVILLE program that has been underestimated every year since it came into FBS .. Rich Rod did an excellent job year 1 with a bevvy of true FR on his OL and year 2 had the CUSA Champ year with 2nd LT HUFF commanding the offense and a D that was nasty .. we expected a huge drop off last year with the new coach and very low ret pro .. they had a difficult time rebuilding the D, but Rich Rod's OC took over at HC and they turned in one of the better run games in CFB with Cook beating Hardy for most broken tackles in cfb award and nearly a win in the CUSA champ game when we firmly expected these guys to take a dump and stink last yr .. big picture this isint a hit and miss football program in FCS and that's continued into G5 ..
NDSU has proven multiple times they can hang with the mid tier of FBS P5 teams and dominate in FCS .. they won the champ game 2 yrs ago but they haven't been anything close to the outlier they were in recent years as SDSU came up in the covid / post covid years, and took some losses that were unexpected, albeit generally to the eventual FBS champs or runners up .. very good run still but very much a mortal FCS team .. They lose quite a bit of their top producers from last year and they aren't immune to the portal taking more than it gives them. Expectations seem to be on par with what JMU accomplished when they STORMED THE SUN BELT .. consider the biggest most obvious diff that they had Psycho Ciggy and retained a number of star players and new QB was a great fit .. JMU also knew well over a year prior they were moving up to FCS .. NDSU formally invited to the MW and announced their move 4 months ago .. schedule was not finalized until March .. late schedule update impacts JVILL as well but NDSU has a TOTALLY INSANE task of being ready for opponents this yr.. its unclear if no post-ssn expectations impact their retention given the timing but I'm not sure this team in FBS is more attractive than one thats used hoisting natty hardware .. They also lose the MAJOR parts of their offense w the QB, RB, WR in the pros and all the O Prod was centered around them. Jackson Williams is a star return man and contrib WR has to step up .. they also retain a great TE but a number of 'next up' WR tgts they'd want to have are gone .. OL-C and T shipped to P4 squads .. PFF grades on the others starters shows a mixed bag and the backups have very poor grades in mop up action .. D also got hit with about half the starting / major contrib reps gone incl the clear best pass rusher and better cover guys .. lost their FG Kicker to Iowa .. career backup on deck could easily be the diff covering .. or winning.. all that said kickoff in Fargo Dome for First ever FBS year its one of the most important games for program that has a long list of big important games .. I just could see a situation where the typical domination is not on display ..
Jville has their QB back very good on the ground and Andrew Paul was seeing 3rd string action at UGA as a true fr he could def be ready for a breakout .. I will struggle to fade the Cocks this year ever with 6'8 Deondre Johnson at WR huge mismatch discovered very late last yr and single handedly gave them a pass game, one that can go deep down field and showed in the champ gm he can make grabs on run short, mid and goal line routes .. very surprised they kept him around. Line replaces 3 but they have backups and xfers in and been better than expected every year running what is still the rich rod offense .. I can't speak to the J-VILLE D it struggled early but turned out better than expected .. this game is trouble if they can't stop NDSU on the ground, Bizon have lived on conv 3rd n short and killing a D with long drives .. I doubt we get certainty until we see them play .. they have plenty of losses too but do retain a few guys to like .. JVILLE does have one of the best kickers in CFB, surprised they retained him, sure thing edge in the kick game .. HUGE thing when taking a free 10 ..
All n all I can't say what JVILLE will be we're relying on the development of some guys and progress of others and units not being in big trouble which could be the case but I don't think the variance spreads out from +10 they have a few ways to score and at least have a size advantage .. NDSU has some real questions about whose steppin up and we can rely on them not being in bad shape at the FCS level but there's a chance this is a real surprise the pillars they lost on offense were MAJOR .. Expecting ALOT of power run between the tackles and more classic BIZON BALL trying to go on those very long drives ..
Beyond taking +10 I'll be shopping ML's or Alt Line odds for JVille and maybe a combo with the under .. Fan has the total and ML now but the SGP odds are jerked too far down to play should be 6.5-1 or so not 5-1 ..
SMALLER
NDSU / JVILLE ST UNDER 49.5 (FAN)
Small bucks for now .. bigger play if this moves into the 50's .. and might be more of an in-game play I think we caN rely on Bizon intending to BURN that clock hard on scoring drives .. If Jville's D stinks then this could get into trouble early but might never be out because NDSU loves nothing more than 15 play / 10+min drives in H2..
1
JVILLE CONT'D ..
Jville has their QB back very good on the ground and Andrew Paul was seeing 3rd string action at UGA as a true fr he could def be ready for a breakout .. I will struggle to fade the Cocks this year ever with 6'8 Deondre Johnson at WR huge mismatch discovered very late last yr and single handedly gave them a pass game, one that can go deep down field and showed in the champ gm he can make grabs on run short, mid and goal line routes .. very surprised they kept him around. Line replaces 3 but they have backups and xfers in and been better than expected every year running what is still the rich rod offense .. I can't speak to the J-VILLE D it struggled early but turned out better than expected .. this game is trouble if they can't stop NDSU on the ground, Bizon have lived on conv 3rd n short and killing a D with long drives .. I doubt we get certainty until we see them play .. they have plenty of losses too but do retain a few guys to like .. JVILLE does have one of the best kickers in CFB, surprised they retained him, sure thing edge in the kick game .. HUGE thing when taking a free 10 ..
All n all I can't say what JVILLE will be we're relying on the development of some guys and progress of others and units not being in big trouble which could be the case but I don't think the variance spreads out from +10 they have a few ways to score and at least have a size advantage .. NDSU has some real questions about whose steppin up and we can rely on them not being in bad shape at the FCS level but there's a chance this is a real surprise the pillars they lost on offense were MAJOR .. Expecting ALOT of power run between the tackles and more classic BIZON BALL trying to go on those very long drives ..
Beyond taking +10 I'll be shopping ML's or Alt Line odds for JVille and maybe a combo with the under .. Fan has the total and ML now but the SGP odds are jerked too far down to play should be 6.5-1 or so not 5-1 ..
SMALLER
NDSU / JVILLE ST UNDER 49.5 (FAN)
Small bucks for now .. bigger play if this moves into the 50's .. and might be more of an in-game play I think we caN rely on Bizon intending to BURN that clock hard on scoring drives .. If Jville's D stinks then this could get into trouble early but might never be out because NDSU loves nothing more than 15 play / 10+min drives in H2..
Basically every tangible and intangible way I look at NDSU this year looks like a negative impact to me .. the hasty move right before spring ball to the fbs getting to know a whole new slate of opponents I think puts their win total of 9.5 in serious jeopardy from the start .. but BIG roster transition esp with the offense and think strong likelihood the SP+ and other models would be too high trying to power rate them in the FBS because there's a floor the model has for this program on their historical strength alone and it does feel like there's concerns on the roster with 3 MAJOR DUDEs departing on offense, ACE KICKER to Iowa, easily best pass rusher gone .. and I think its a net loss of xfers esp with Vandy and MSU picking up a couple of their OL's.. the D should be good I think it needs to be VERY GOOD but any offensive woes and iffy FG kicking will turn in surprise dog fights and maybe some L's that nobody's expecting ..
Hard to judge all the opponents we know MW is not in great shape but nonetheless there's a big upgrade in SOS from just power rating and no just from the top opponents but for the whole season offers way fewer breaks .. H1 Blowouts for most of the schedule offers plenty of rest avail for starters, playing depth and development helps this team reload every yr and managing depth and injuries for only a few risky reg ssn games makes it much easier to show up BIG and make deep runs into the playoffs.. I don't think its the same sitch this yr even w some real ugly ducklings on the schedule ..
The schedule is more than sneaky tough ... all the best opponents on the road.. 3 at elevation 2 with a very significant change .. if there's anything to high altitude training then they go @AF early and later a 5 gm stint vs WYO, @UNLV, NEV, @NM, UTEP.. Elevation and travel can impact in subsequent weeks and just natural tough spots all the way thru and I can see there being some Q4 dog fights in Fargo during that stretch .. @Hawaii and then N.ILL, @SJSU the finale spot is much diff if Navy Ken gets his guys playing by yr end and they need that for a bowl .. also .. everyone has that gm circled .. Also maybe some impact being that the goals of winning the conf 1st round playoff bye and winning the natty are not present this year .. maybe they close the reg ssn strong but like many others they could have guys with two feet in the portal after that hawaii game talking with agents and sending doctors notes .. maybe not but the usual incentives they have are not there this yr ..
All that said if the MW might keep cratering, AF, UNLV, NM not as strong and nobody else improves and challenges a good football team then Bizon could throttle this schedule .. If they can get 8 wins while dealing with all that baggage and be competitive in most their losses seems like a HUGE accomplishment .. But if the baggage weighs them down, the schedule spots mentioned turn out to be real heavy, if a few injuries pile up, etc .. that scenario puts them stumbling into 6 or 7 wins and I'll be first in line to take their win total over in 2027 ..
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NDSU NOTES ..
Basically every tangible and intangible way I look at NDSU this year looks like a negative impact to me .. the hasty move right before spring ball to the fbs getting to know a whole new slate of opponents I think puts their win total of 9.5 in serious jeopardy from the start .. but BIG roster transition esp with the offense and think strong likelihood the SP+ and other models would be too high trying to power rate them in the FBS because there's a floor the model has for this program on their historical strength alone and it does feel like there's concerns on the roster with 3 MAJOR DUDEs departing on offense, ACE KICKER to Iowa, easily best pass rusher gone .. and I think its a net loss of xfers esp with Vandy and MSU picking up a couple of their OL's.. the D should be good I think it needs to be VERY GOOD but any offensive woes and iffy FG kicking will turn in surprise dog fights and maybe some L's that nobody's expecting ..
Hard to judge all the opponents we know MW is not in great shape but nonetheless there's a big upgrade in SOS from just power rating and no just from the top opponents but for the whole season offers way fewer breaks .. H1 Blowouts for most of the schedule offers plenty of rest avail for starters, playing depth and development helps this team reload every yr and managing depth and injuries for only a few risky reg ssn games makes it much easier to show up BIG and make deep runs into the playoffs.. I don't think its the same sitch this yr even w some real ugly ducklings on the schedule ..
The schedule is more than sneaky tough ... all the best opponents on the road.. 3 at elevation 2 with a very significant change .. if there's anything to high altitude training then they go @AF early and later a 5 gm stint vs WYO, @UNLV, NEV, @NM, UTEP.. Elevation and travel can impact in subsequent weeks and just natural tough spots all the way thru and I can see there being some Q4 dog fights in Fargo during that stretch .. @Hawaii and then N.ILL, @SJSU the finale spot is much diff if Navy Ken gets his guys playing by yr end and they need that for a bowl .. also .. everyone has that gm circled .. Also maybe some impact being that the goals of winning the conf 1st round playoff bye and winning the natty are not present this year .. maybe they close the reg ssn strong but like many others they could have guys with two feet in the portal after that hawaii game talking with agents and sending doctors notes .. maybe not but the usual incentives they have are not there this yr ..
All that said if the MW might keep cratering, AF, UNLV, NM not as strong and nobody else improves and challenges a good football team then Bizon could throttle this schedule .. If they can get 8 wins while dealing with all that baggage and be competitive in most their losses seems like a HUGE accomplishment .. But if the baggage weighs them down, the schedule spots mentioned turn out to be real heavy, if a few injuries pile up, etc .. that scenario puts them stumbling into 6 or 7 wins and I'll be first in line to take their win total over in 2027 ..
Have enough on this already I coulda bumped it but as noted above I didn't have a great feel on what JVILLE was showing up with in some areas of their roster, not a ton of good info out on them yet .. but seeing they kept a few of the guys around it was a good sign, namely the QB, WR and ACE Kicker .. wasn't real sure what they had on D though, wanted to hear from Phil how that side looks and it doesn't sound like they're in bad shape, particularly in the front 8 with good depth and quality in the DL and some dudes at LB .. back end has a star at safety and good CB and other experienced players .. Last year they had 3 returning starters and the profile on D was bleak after a couple surprise solid years on D under Rich Rod .. And this seemed to be confirmed early last year with Liberty and GA.So's offense coming to life, So.Miss having a field day .. but overall pretty good in conf and D pitched a couple nice games down the stretch very good with takeaways / INTs 60ish% passing and a few games they shut the run down .. the profile this year is one that at least puts them in the ball park of what they became last year, and very possible they actually springboard into this season with alot more than just "the building blocks" they have a few legit G5 level stars and would expect a few more on the DL to emerge there's alot of potential up front and at #107 D in SP+ the D maybe very underrated ..
Question is will NDSU's usual prowess take over in the DOME and Bizon just have the bases covered, Jville makes mistakes and Cocks get dismantled?... that's what we're implying by giving Jville a free 10 points .. Just a thought experiment, say Jville moved to FCS this year, what were saying is they are a 2nd or 3rd tier FCS squad, maybe a 30 or 50-1 to win the FCS natty .. or would Jville be a legit top 5 team but NDSU is just THAT far ahead of everyone else this year? .. Well, I don't know how much of a step back NDSU is taking but we can bank on a decent size one on offense .. historically the impact hasn't shown up on the field for them, NDSU has had 5 consecutive QB's drafted, experienced, solid and some major dudes dotting the roster .. it feels like potentially one of the bigger shifts they've had .. S.Dakota State went through that last year and ended up being DRAMATIC .. Jacks had some historic roster turnover with the coach leaving / taking a ton of their dudes so I don't expect NDSU to fall back like that but .. well let's just say I'd if Jville went to FCS I'd be good taking them at 30-1 or better.. Big picture I think teams moving opposite direction and how much is TBD and teams might be closer to even with HFA leaning NDSU's way, maybe line should at most under a TD ..
I sent +10 down to 9 at BOL and its mostly 9.5's across the board now maybe another 10 shows up .. great number .. think its worth waiting to see another one but if the trend moves down make sure to get in at 8.5 or better .. I'm also still feeling good about a total under 49.5 or better and ML's at +300 could be worth looking into .. - GOOD LUCK!
1
SMALLER
BRIDGE PLAY
NDSU / JVILLE ST +10 (BOL)
Have enough on this already I coulda bumped it but as noted above I didn't have a great feel on what JVILLE was showing up with in some areas of their roster, not a ton of good info out on them yet .. but seeing they kept a few of the guys around it was a good sign, namely the QB, WR and ACE Kicker .. wasn't real sure what they had on D though, wanted to hear from Phil how that side looks and it doesn't sound like they're in bad shape, particularly in the front 8 with good depth and quality in the DL and some dudes at LB .. back end has a star at safety and good CB and other experienced players .. Last year they had 3 returning starters and the profile on D was bleak after a couple surprise solid years on D under Rich Rod .. And this seemed to be confirmed early last year with Liberty and GA.So's offense coming to life, So.Miss having a field day .. but overall pretty good in conf and D pitched a couple nice games down the stretch very good with takeaways / INTs 60ish% passing and a few games they shut the run down .. the profile this year is one that at least puts them in the ball park of what they became last year, and very possible they actually springboard into this season with alot more than just "the building blocks" they have a few legit G5 level stars and would expect a few more on the DL to emerge there's alot of potential up front and at #107 D in SP+ the D maybe very underrated ..
Question is will NDSU's usual prowess take over in the DOME and Bizon just have the bases covered, Jville makes mistakes and Cocks get dismantled?... that's what we're implying by giving Jville a free 10 points .. Just a thought experiment, say Jville moved to FCS this year, what were saying is they are a 2nd or 3rd tier FCS squad, maybe a 30 or 50-1 to win the FCS natty .. or would Jville be a legit top 5 team but NDSU is just THAT far ahead of everyone else this year? .. Well, I don't know how much of a step back NDSU is taking but we can bank on a decent size one on offense .. historically the impact hasn't shown up on the field for them, NDSU has had 5 consecutive QB's drafted, experienced, solid and some major dudes dotting the roster .. it feels like potentially one of the bigger shifts they've had .. S.Dakota State went through that last year and ended up being DRAMATIC .. Jacks had some historic roster turnover with the coach leaving / taking a ton of their dudes so I don't expect NDSU to fall back like that but .. well let's just say I'd if Jville went to FCS I'd be good taking them at 30-1 or better.. Big picture I think teams moving opposite direction and how much is TBD and teams might be closer to even with HFA leaning NDSU's way, maybe line should at most under a TD ..
I sent +10 down to 9 at BOL and its mostly 9.5's across the board now maybe another 10 shows up .. great number .. think its worth waiting to see another one but if the trend moves down make sure to get in at 8.5 or better .. I'm also still feeling good about a total under 49.5 or better and ML's at +300 could be worth looking into .. - GOOD LUCK!
SMALLER KANSAS / MISSOURI -5.5 WK2 Mizz got some tough news regarding Hardy .. unclear what the status is on that but they have a RB2 who was IMO just as awesome and will carry a big load this year if called upon .. Can't say Mizzoo is better this year overall but the trajectory of this team and the moves they're making signals they aren't going back to the basement and Austin Simmons is prob a better option than Prib was .. hopefully .. Prib was good vs this level of comp last year but really struggled vs SEC secondaries and pressures .. we also can't just look at what MIZZ became last year and project to this yr .. they lost Prib down the stretch and it was a slowwww grind from there and got tripped up in the bowl vs a VERY MOTIVATED UVA team while Mizz was playing a bit ho-humm .. expect offense to come out more humm than we remember Tigers got into HUGE trouble at home in this game last year off some turnover trouble and down a couple scores and given the HUGE REVIVALRY of these states / former conf foes, etc one had to wonder if KU was gunna pull off a stunner .. alas DA'ZOO gathered themselves and not only covered -8 but did so handily .. I get the sense KU maybe in a bit of trouble this year .. IN LEIPOLD WE TRUST as KU was 2 TD Dogs in conf to every team was a money-maker .. but my sense is the school isin't happy with all the football money .. its still ROCK SHOCK B-BALL in Lawrence all the way and CFB will always take a back seat .. we expected a drop off last year and for the most part we got that .. we expect more drop off this year with some units .. there's no doubt Lance gets the most out of his guys so happy to get this under -6 for a big home game .. Spot is really interesting with KU going across the pond in WK 3 to play ASU in England which is unusual we see foreign soil games week zero / wk1 and that probably complicates things a bit .. so ALOT goin on as they prep for this big game and I'd expect KU will be fully into this big revenge rivalry home game but wouldn't surprise me if there's some look-ahead related snafu's on KU's part with a very wacky conf opener spot on deck... Check Hard Rock .. they had -3.5 for a bit .. I'd love that number but I can only bet $1.77 and the min bet is $2 .. this should of course be illegal so give them a smack for me .. GOOD LUCK!
missouri will smack kansas hard
0
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
SMALLER KANSAS / MISSOURI -5.5 WK2 Mizz got some tough news regarding Hardy .. unclear what the status is on that but they have a RB2 who was IMO just as awesome and will carry a big load this year if called upon .. Can't say Mizzoo is better this year overall but the trajectory of this team and the moves they're making signals they aren't going back to the basement and Austin Simmons is prob a better option than Prib was .. hopefully .. Prib was good vs this level of comp last year but really struggled vs SEC secondaries and pressures .. we also can't just look at what MIZZ became last year and project to this yr .. they lost Prib down the stretch and it was a slowwww grind from there and got tripped up in the bowl vs a VERY MOTIVATED UVA team while Mizz was playing a bit ho-humm .. expect offense to come out more humm than we remember Tigers got into HUGE trouble at home in this game last year off some turnover trouble and down a couple scores and given the HUGE REVIVALRY of these states / former conf foes, etc one had to wonder if KU was gunna pull off a stunner .. alas DA'ZOO gathered themselves and not only covered -8 but did so handily .. I get the sense KU maybe in a bit of trouble this year .. IN LEIPOLD WE TRUST as KU was 2 TD Dogs in conf to every team was a money-maker .. but my sense is the school isin't happy with all the football money .. its still ROCK SHOCK B-BALL in Lawrence all the way and CFB will always take a back seat .. we expected a drop off last year and for the most part we got that .. we expect more drop off this year with some units .. there's no doubt Lance gets the most out of his guys so happy to get this under -6 for a big home game .. Spot is really interesting with KU going across the pond in WK 3 to play ASU in England which is unusual we see foreign soil games week zero / wk1 and that probably complicates things a bit .. so ALOT goin on as they prep for this big game and I'd expect KU will be fully into this big revenge rivalry home game but wouldn't surprise me if there's some look-ahead related snafu's on KU's part with a very wacky conf opener spot on deck... Check Hard Rock .. they had -3.5 for a bit .. I'd love that number but I can only bet $1.77 and the min bet is $2 .. this should of course be illegal so give them a smack for me .. GOOD LUCK!
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