BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 2

WK1/0
BP 0-2, YTD 0-2
SM 1-3, YTD 1-3

BRIDGE PLAYS 
NDSU / JVILLE ST +10 
CHARLOTTE -18.5 -105 

SMALLER
OREGON -24.5 
W.VIRGINIA -21 
USC / FRESNO +23.5 
NDSU / JVILLE ST UNDER 49.5 

JVILLE .. mentioned last week still really like them after getting punched in the face .. took them in a 'payback' spot vs FCS E.Kentucky who had a decent pass game but after getting the bend over treatment THE COCKS Plunged DEEEP into the E.KY's HEART.. I'd expect JVILLE to do some scoring vs anyone without a strong D this year .. After seeing WKY turn inept in a tough spot .. wk1 in Reno late night gm .. horrible spot .. I'd say JVILLE looks squarely like a top 2 conf contender after getting pounded by NDSU and just beating up an FCS team .. So we should find some decent odds or other futures for them .. think I mentioned this potential scenario could happen in the pre-ssn notes as a time to go futures hunting w them .. esp now we know Liberty maybe good and a conf contender too but they weren't an unbeatable G5 UNIT yesterday the QB play was iffy and JMU had the drop on them from the start ..  

CHAR .. Jesus .. The play is Albin has decent players and is a good coach and will have them ready for this one .. 9'ER NATION was ready to receive this team with open arms .. Citadel is a bottom tier FCS team and I'd say Charlotte should look to DIII or beyond maybe a home game vs Oberlin or Wellesley or Sarah Lawrence if they want to win by a TD or more .. HOLY CRAP ..  

OREG ... I just had to throw the square of the century play on Oregon in there for good measure .. woah buddy .. that was the gambit here .. are they a NATTY CONTENDER .. Boise maybe very good sure but Natty contenders don't get gashed like that and need to rely on MASSIVE ELITE Talent edges at especially from the WR's to barely edge out even the highest quality G6 teams .. this is a big problem for the ducks IMO .. 

W.VIRG .. 24-ZIP at the half and you could kinda tell the point in time when the fans knew the air was totally out of the stadium .. Coastal 99 yd TD drive .. we expected little out of the true fr QB but he turned into a TOTAL DUDE in H2 .. a first game true fr dude but a dude nonetheless .. and then solid DT for WV gets a leg injury .. looooong delays .. one team kept playing .. I hope rich rod has them running up that hill rest of the season .. key takeaway is that D won't hold up to much scrutiny this year .. they need to pressure the QB and get home to have a chance .. lost a really solid piece to their DL already .. and gotta stay efficient on offense .. felt like they were beating themselves in H2 constandly in 3rd down and think the 4th n 1 pandemic hit them at least once or twice too .. TAKE 2 .. Coastal got a dude at QB .. HC from Mizz State found his guy .. this team can turn pretty fun in short order .. the D wasn't special but they capitalized when WV played down and .. coastal was very close to being in a spot to go from down 24-zip to driving for at least a tie ballgame late in the gm ..  

SSN WINS

UCLA OVER 5.5 -144 
TULSA OVER 5.5 -120 
MARYLAND O4.5 -210 .. TBD but opponent schedule seems more favorable .. 
UMASS OVER 5.5 -144 
FRESNO ST OVER 6.5 +110 .. Concerning .. where's QB K-MART?? .. 
SAC STATE UNDER 4.5 -111  .. Gotta beat UMASS .. eek
BOISE STATE OVER 7.5 -160 
IOWA STATE UNDER 4.5 +130 .. TBD .. SEMO was FCS Filth ..  
COLORADO STATE OVER 3.5 -150 

FUTURES

CONF WINNER
ARMY 8-1 (AAC) .. TBD .. 650 yds w 570 rush to 165 yds .. maybe just bryant but .. it tracks ..  
TULSA 50-1 (AAC)  .. dude .. DUDE .. DUUUUUUDE .. HC TRE LAMB BABY .. 
UMASS 50-1 (MAC)  .. duuuude .. was there for the snatchin' .. 
FRESNO STATE 8-1 (PAC) .. BOISE .. EEK .. 

MAKE CHAMP GAME
UMASS 50-1 (MAC) ..  .. "CORN" POP WATSON Is a real BAD DUDE ..  
CHARLOTTE 200-1 (AAC) .. EPIC FAIL .. 

MAKE PLAYOFFS .. All have been subordinated to Boise .. need Memphis this wk to STUN on the Blue Turf .. 
NDSU 10-1 
UMASS 250-1
AIR FORCE 40-1
FRESNO STATE 30-1 .. 
JVILLE STATE 100-1 .. 

SSN CONF PASS YDS LEADER
STEVE ANGELLI 14-1 (ACC) .. we're back baby .. 
MASON MCKENZIE 100-1 (ACC) .. dead .. 
KENNY MINCHEY 100-1 (SEC) .. not bad .. 
JOHN MATEER 18-1 (SEC) .. looking good .. 

FUTURES TALK

These went considerably better week 1 .. 

TULSA looks like a REAL NASTY BUNCH .. I must say OK.State was not doing well when they could have / should have .. clean pocket but not clean play .. some of that really was tulsa and some of that was .. OK.STATE SUUUUCKS .. 

UMASS .. there for the taking after the big game rest of the weekend .. I took alot of things during the game .. the 5.5 win total seems like a lock .. I kept going on it up to -200 .. there's 2 fairly not good FCS teams, and 7 other bad to tossup teams .. Toledo looked capable but not an impossible team to beat .. Miami hard to tell they got scrunched up into a ball and punted outta Pitt's stadium .. Minutemen avoid Ohio and W.Mich en-route to their champ gm .. W.Mich very impressive highly tactical defensive play and yeah impressive WIN .. I really like UMASS O5.5 and 'MAKE' Champ game .. 

ARMY .. Potential JUGGERNAUT .. can't rely on one gm vs Bryant but I wanted to see if the D would be iffy .. 3 plays 10+ given up outta 53 plays .. Bryant threatened on a couple drives hit a FG and went over on downs .. no other drives went further than 20 yds lot of 3 n outs .. wasn't LOCK DOWN D vs lowly FCS team but .. that is better than I expected .. GO ARMY .. 

COLO STATE .. RAMS RAMMING THE GOLDEN BOOT UP WYO'S A$$ .. went according to plan .. HC Mora done did it again .. also as planned .. The PAC top to bottom looks pretty good but I think with that win we can look at the RAMS as a very likely make a bowl team and they could go well beyond .. QB HEJNY .. I TOLD'JA .. DAT BOY GOOD.. 

SAC STATE .. given they have UMASS on their schedule and no winnable non-cons I would say this is feeling VERRY GOOD ..

FRESNO .. Def some concern .. my takaway from the USC game is USC is different .. VERY STRONG up front and the WR's are un-guardable .. they can absolutely beat this oregon team at home if their D doesn't get it together FAST .. Hoping FRES QB gets his act together or we see K-MART the dude I was prospecting for this play .. 

BRIDGE PLAYS

ARMY -3 (BOL)

Hit the other day -1.5 and just seeing USF should have lost easily per the stat matchup vs FIU .. Books are hudding around -3 and -3.5 so find the better deal as more books open up but .. I think its a romp .. 

SMALLER

FIU / BUFFALO UNDER 52.5 

Buffalo's offense was horrific and FIU D shut down USF in the stats and just in the stat dept it seems like they shoulda won that game .. I think Buffalo's D is not terrible though it didn't seem like .. FIU's offense was very very slow rolling vs USF and Buff was kinda the ssame on their drives .. maybe some freak TD's here but one of these kinda iffy slow offenses doesn't get peak scoring efficiency putting up TD's and not FG's then think its a good chance to keep this total low .. 

SMALLER

UCLA / SDSU OVER 52.5

Think we get some flash fast decent offense outta SDSU with a few points produced from them and the D lost some MAJOR DUDES from that very good D of last year .. UCLA offense looked very capable and think we've seen they aren't unbeatable on D either  .. if new HC inherited the Cignetti BLOWOUT gene then he should aim for a destructive blowout here .. but either way got 2 productive offenses .. gotta be very picky choosey with the total overs and books know at this point not to just hand out 56's which this probably woulda been if TOTAL ARMAGEDDON hadn't decimated the totals so far .. so maybe a little cap put on this and we find a little value in game .. and yeah I do kinda like this one .. Good luck

SMALLER

SYRACUSE +1.5

Seeing this go back/forth between -1.5 and +1.5 .. some push and pull in the market .. I really like Cuse to rebound after last year on both sides and I wasn't super impressed with Cal last night .. I think if this we're mid ssn and Cuse had proved themselves a little bit then this would easily be a -3 or so favorite spot for them .. we'll see .. 

SMALLER

RUTGERS / BC UNDER 53.5 

Hit this Under 57.5 on the early lines and I think its still worth a small hit over 52ish .. there's a chance BC's offense can get going and Rutgers' D isin't impressive .. but neither offense is impressive either .. Certainly possible for this to go over but I think offensive woes loom large for both teams .. gotta stay in the 'smaller' department after the line moves .. 

SMALLER

NDSU / AIR FORCE UNDER 47.5

Hard to say for sure with Air Force but NDSU's D was very strong and the offense is otherwise kinda slow and methodical .. Line is NDSU -6 hard to say for sure there too its such a big home spot for Air Force .. If NDSU gets out ahead they have a real knack for driving the clock down into oblivion so the real play here maybe a halftime total or in-game .. GOOD LUCK!

BRIDGE PLAY

NEVADA +5.5 (B365)

It's tough to power rate FBS vs FCS teams but think we saw a much diff team from Nevada last week and a team that might have a strong identity on both sides of the ball .. they looked alot like New Mexico last year coming outta nowhere and just being dominant handling a WKY team that was supposed to be much better than the one we saw .. 

Montana State is the #1 FCS team in all the polls .. they had a major key injury on their D last week in their usual dominant performance .. There's no doubt they wanna show up in Reno and beat their FBS comp .. But NEVADA has no doubt had this game circled as Jeff Choate came to Nevada from Montana State a few years back .. We saw immediate change in toughness from a team that nearly beat SMU to kick off the Ponies playoff run and gave a good number of teams all they could handle .. was a down year LY with alot of good players leaving to better programs .. this team looked well put together with good football players and that's what I'm looking for .. QB looked totally in his element .. Choate has a number of legacy staff from his Mont St days incl the DC who I think proved himselve right away 2 yrs ago .. this is a MAJOR game for this team and think they're more than ready for a big FCS challenge .. think this will also close below a FG so I'd peep 365 or FAN who are putting these numbers out early .. I also grabbed this on the ML +180 because its such a big 'want' for the wolfpack .. Unfortunately we don't get an elevation HFA kick here .. BOZEMAN sits at just about the same elevation as the Pack .. womp .. 

GOOD LUCK!!

BRIDGE PLAY

ARMY -3
NEVADA +5.5 

SMALLER

SYRACUSE +1.5
UCLA / SDSU OVER 52.5
RUTGERS / BC UNDER 53.5 
FIU / BUFFALO UNDER 52.5 
NDSU / AIR FORCE UNDER 47.5

SMALLER

SMU / FSU UNDER 54.5

No electricity no helmet .. think its an under..

@Bridge1

Did you think odds  maker stupid did not know Nev beat the crap out of WKy last week need to watch out

Good luck Bridge.  

sprinkle: ASU ML

BOL Bridge!

@Bridge1

 I like your Army and Syracuse plays, even with the current lines of -3' on each. BOL! 

@BubbaGumpShrimp

 I took it 14.5 for a little bit I think its a pretty big line and the ASU coaches have been a nice surprise at every turn after the first year .. Not sure if Cutter Boley is a surprise dude but if he has the goods then coaches have that ability to get more outta their guys than Mark Stoops probably ever could have w that kentucky staff  .. 

Very interesting spot though with the first conf game across the pond next week .. KU at home vs Mizzoo is such a massive old state rivalry that they can't just ignore .. I think the worry for ASU is that yeah TAMU is a big name and big game .. but I could see if they are falling behind that maybe coach starts managing the roster on the road .. lotta ?'s going into the year for ASU and its just not a must win at all costs situation here .. maybe H1 is better play for ASU we'll see .. but I'm on 14.5 right now for a few bucks and I will definitely access the 'homer rooting' fund and get some ML action on da devils boyz here either SU or drop em in a parlay or something .. 

GOOD LUCK BUBBA .. GOOOO DEVILS!!!!!!

@Boisestateand8

 Yeah liked that one too .. I got Cuse incalculably better on offense with Angelli back and there were a few things to like about their D last year .. it was a totally demoralizing situation with the QB injury and team just falling apart but Cuse might be a top to bottom turnaround with maybe even a team that can play a little D .. but yeah love the spot at home in the dome and late night game / long trip for cal doesn't ring me as a great spot for them here and Cal at home looked a little iffy last week saw the QB was hobbling a bit maybe something up w him is why the line moved so many?.. worth looking into because idk if -3.5 is enough if their QB has a pulled muscle .. but was def happy to catch a couple points and I hit it again ML for a little more when the line dropped that way .. 

Good luck with Boise .. wow what a massive close call .. I can't say they deserved it other than just Oregon really almost mistaked their way to a loss .. but Broncos were still toe to toe with them for much of that game finding first downs and couple really great passes fooling that ducks D .. and yeah just wow!!! ..  

BRIDGE PLAY

FRESNO -18

There were some 17.5's out there I was hoping this would get to a flat 17 .. but more uncertainty with Carson Conklin the sac state QB's wrist is emerging and I'd expect more to emerge as we go .. Expect fresno to have an easy time running the ball here with good G5 OL and 2 very good RB's .. Fresno WR's are the big mystery and nothing got cleared up about that last week .. I did see some toughness out of Fresno's run D it was a tall order to do much vs USC, not sure if Trojans OL is truly elite but they are very good and the strength of the pass game and Riley's ability to create rushing lanes means Fresno finding ways to get stops on the ground is a real + for them .. particularly when they had no chance vs USC's elite WR's .. True FR Mosby is an OMG DUDE LEVEL TRUE FR .. Anyway there were some positive takeaways for Fres last week .. 

I think Fresno will stop SAC's ability to run and it'll be game over real quick .. Sac's offense w the backup QB worked fine vs MVSU with 260 rushing and big play passing .. but I expect that to dry up quick if they can't run the ball .. they benefited from alot of short fields and weren't all that efficient on offense playing a team in the running for #1 WORST FCS TEAM this year .. We also saw last year Fresno got kicked around by Kansas in wk 1 31-7 and nothing went right in that one either 37 yds on the ground .. then came right back to hit G.SO right in the nards for a massive big win 350 yds rushing 175 passing .. even had 3 turnovers to 1 and pulverized G.SO 42-7 at home .. this is that same spot and I expect more from this team and in my view Sac is worse than G.SO was last yr .. Only hangup is that I did think G.SO just wasn't interested in this road noncon at all but hard to imagine Sac is all that interested either .. they have a hurt QB and off a big fun win .. home gm vs fellow FCS promotion team NDSU on deck and the big home gm vs UMASS in the hole .. lot of other things going on .. if I were coach I wouldn't risk putting conklin in w a wrist problem in this gm or the next .. 

The other way to consider playing this one is a BIG fresno score .. I think SAC might have a really awful defense and Fresno needs to exorcise some offensive demons after this game .. I'm not worried if we see their backup QB late K-MART is the guy I was hoping to see Week 1 and was the expected QB post spring .. He couldn't have been worse .. I expect we see a much smoother game here .. Last year during G.SO's pulverizing Fres wore them out H2 and put 29 points up w 14 in Q4 so coach is not shy about tacking on the exclamation points in this spot and be a big confidence booste to either QB and whole team if they are steady rockin this team for a full 60 mins .. - good luck!

SMALLER

FRESNO TT OVER 31.5 (FAN)

Just my thought on the TT we have Fresno 31.5 +100 even money out there .. this total has shurunk way down and we know totals move quick in game now with a slow start .. I want a flat 31 but I already took this .. Sac state's only hope here is to score points and there is a chance for them to maybe find traction in their pass game .. I do think if their run game is shut down a couple drives that we're gunna see maybe a fairly strict downfield pass game for them .. that could turn in a couple scores .. only way I see Fres not covering is that luck of the draw big downfield pass game that finds a few connections .. but same token I don't think Sac is stoppin these guys and it could end up being Fresno gets the ball back fairly quick and starts wearing this D down and gashing them .. we're taking it a little bit on faith that the WR's aren't gunna be dropping balls and we get a big effort outta Fresno as they search for a big offensive day .. 

So I got this smaller for now and don't have a problem poppin it again if there's just a slower start punt punt start and we see 28.5 or 28 or better .. at some point I think Fresno's offense will kick way into gear and expect to see them trying to put points up to the end given what we got from this same spot / situation in their early ssn last year .. good luck!

SMALLER

FLA ATLANTIC +4.5

Tough to see how they started last week and take these guys .. what I can say is FAU's pass game was not bad and they got good blocking and made some hay vs a D coached by Brad White the famous UK DC that always had a knack for killing offensive mojo especially pass games and just dragging production and scores down and sometimes Kentucky found ways to win those games in surprising low scoring fashion and with defenders who weren't big names usually .. and looking over FAU you kinda have to put the scores aside we expected them to come out and play a HIGH RISK brand on offense again .. I count 5 bonafide drives vs UF last week and another few were cut short by turnovers or stopped on downs and we see Veltkamp got some pressure but nice day blocking by the OL .. Kitley's offense NEEDS the OL to perform in quick passing to work .. they also do need some level of run game .. last year offense and point production went way up when they got about 100+ yards rushing .. 1200 on the year w lot of bad rush games killed them .. 

What's to like about FAU this year is 2nd year system with veltkamp .. expect better run production, they got some traction vs UF but didn't have many run att's .. expect more here .. the OL is experienced and played decent vs UF .. 2 VERY good WR's and another target or two emerged last week I think we're good in that unit .. The D is the big wildcard they went from very weak units last year and now I'd say the best guys are back with a highly experienced D and tough to judge them vs UF it wasn't pretty .. keep in mind UF has a very strong group of WR's .. Singleton the main guy got hurt early last week but Dallas and Vernell and a major dude run game .. the final score is indicative of what can happen to FAU when they stay the course playing high risk football but yeah a drubbing they got .. the turnovers all told were a disaster .. The D is vastly more experienced and maybe not major dudes but a D that can keep them in games vs non-elite massive talent diff competition .. yet to be proven .. 

The big key for FAU is not letting Navy's QB take over with his legs .. he's a major dude and tough to contain .. but he's also got a major weakness in his pass game around at about 50% comps for his career and FAU must get this dude into 3rd down and make him pass it .. if not they can still win but expect a very high total again .. 

The other thing to look at here w Navy is the D front .. MASSIVE DIFF .. they were animals last year and lost quite a few major dudes and pretty much all their pass rushing ability has to be proven once again .. they didn't prove it vs Towson my read on their sacks were blown blocking assignments not pass rush wins .. and Navy's calling card the last few years has been that striker position causing trouble and very good DL play .. I don't think its close to what we've seen and think FAU can be successful passing but more importantly get that extra big edge in their offense by running the ball .. 

The big major concern for FAU is Veltkamps turnover syndrome is approaching the stuff of legend between the fumbling and the int's and much of it without pressure .. -21 turnover margin last year basically all on him .. 17 picks LY only 4 under pressure .. 8 fumbles playing QB  .. another 2 fumbles as a WR on 3 catches .. like dude ..  the D provided no help on takaways and if those can change its a whole new ballgame for FAU this year .. major turnaround potential .. 

^^^ FAU +4.5 CONT'D .. 

It is likely to rain in this gm and maybe that favors Navy with a ground attack .. maybe delays also favor the more sure thing run team .. maybe a bad spot here playing a team w an elite scramble QB and solid run gm .. Love to have BP'd a game like this with alot going for it but lot still has to be proved think its a decent 'surprise' home spot catching good points here .. but yeah gotta keep it smaller .. the alternative to a close game is one of these teams might house the other MARGIN CAAAAALLLL 52-21 style .. pick your poison I think it could be either team taking a monster win .. But FAU's offense is also very capable of making mistakes early and coming back very fast with quick scores.. Kitley is a MAJOR DICE ROLLER and just leaves themselves ways out of deep holes where you think they're toast .. this can of course take them from regular toast to totally burnt toast lol .. point is if I'm watching this gm I'm not seeing FAU being out of it if they can control some of the navy offensive flow and find a few stops .. if they're down 21 in H2 its possible for them to finagle a way back into their games .. so maybe light fun in-gm big odds ka-boomer chance here or maybe some other week we find a way to have that sorta fun w the owls  .. - good luck!

I have been looking at this FRESNO game and thinking their defense rated #1 in the conference better bring it with some nasty energy after the loss to USC and they will be out for blood while the offense (hopefully) tires out their defense....

This is the line I am considering right now even at -18.5 Fresno

Sac has to come back from triple time zone switches so if Fresno defense is what it can be, I doubt Sac will score more than 10 pts 

GL Bridge 

WEEK 3

SMALLER

ALABAMA -16.5

Man o man .. maybe the biggest screaminist payback spot of the year right here .. catchin FSU on the flip side of last years embarrassing loss at home .. Summing up FSU here they have a major deficiency in their pass game and a major deficiency in their secondary / pass D .. they do have the big WR Duce who can make plays and I do like the RB Kommah .. the team as a whole is just not one that can be relied on .. penalties and dumb plays plagued them in their big home game .. good WR play vs SMU and NMSU killed them .. the QB play was just lackluster .. they stunk on 3rd down on offense and just routinely found ways to get beat on 3rd by SMU .. and NMSU .. I think Bama can corner this team in a big way .. and plenty motivated to go do it .. FSU was +4 in turnovers and somehow never felt like they ever had an edge to win that game .. I think they were about a coin flip for some of it but that dried up quick and that was your big labor day night conf home game only game on all eyes on you performance and i think the lights didn't just go out in the stadium if you know what I mean .. team stinks so far and needs a MAJOR turn to compete here since its clear that no amount of turnover luck will help them..  

Recall last year after the big opening day loss .. this team had their manhood questioned .. HC Debore living in the shaddow of Saban had a horrific start to last year and that loss is still hanging over him .. Last year alot of folks were taking ULM the next week .. I saw this as the gut check play of the year .. think Bama won 73-zip or so lapping the big 30+ point spread and kept going right to the end .. I'd be surprised if they weren't in a position to blow this game open and proceed to maybe end Norvell's career here if they can .. Debore's record as a fav does stink but he's at home with the much better team and alot to like here esp bama's secondary vs the bad QB .. I don't think FSU will find ways to get outside of Bama's edges and pick up big plays .. FSU needs a total slug fest here and a very low mistake game .. the bama fans want 73-zip again and Norvell fired after the handshakes .. that's the only satisfactory ending for a bama fan here .. not sure it'll be exactly that but maaaaan .. 

I can only go smaller w FAN's limits .. I've seen enough of FSU and not 100% sure w bama but I did think they'd get the drop on ECU last week and being the opening day game they'd house them as a sorta retribution for FSU last year let the fans know theyre ready this year .. and did so easy .. but none of that matters this week they've got blood steaming from their eyes and ears and other places too to exact revenge on this .. man I think somewhat hapless NOLES team ..