BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 11

BP: LW: 2-2, YTD: 22-23
SM: LW: 2-1, YTD: 29-19

WK10 RECAP

BRIDGE PLAY
FLORIDA +7.5 
SAN DIEGO ST -10 
WASH STATE -2.5 
KANSAS -22.5 

SMALLER
JMU -6.5 
FLORIDA +9.5 GOY 
PENN ST +4.5 GOY 

BRIDGE PLAYS

UCONN +10.5 (H-ROCK)

SP+ woulda had this line about even last week with Duke +6 and UCONN +4 in the PR's .. add in 2.5 for HFA and we're dead even .. I don't know all thats going on with UCONN .. 100% worth a check to see if they're completely in-tact .. But I can say this is a MASSIVE home game for them and there's no doubt they will show up with everything they got here .. 

What we can also say is .. THIS GAME .. DOES NOT MATTER .. AT ALL .. FOR DUKE .. so far as any post-ssn goals go .. there's no chance they make the playoff if they don't win the ACC championship and right now they're smack dab in the middle of that race and in a MASSIVE sandwich spot on the road off the MASSIVE last moment 1 point comeback road win @Clemson to stay in the hunt for the champ game .. and UVA on deck is another MUST WIN GAME .. I can't say for sure they won't show up but I saw this coming a few weeks ago and I could see coach just telling all his guys the situation and nobody is under a shred of wonder why they are resting all their dudes and willing to take an L in this game .. could still win but every effort to win this game is effort taken away from their big huge MASSIVE goals ..

Duke last won a share of the ACC conference in 1989 under coach Steve Spurrier ..They've had 1 divison championship since in 2013 where they got STEEEEEMROLLED by FSU en-route to I believe the Nole's BIG NATTY WIN with Jaimis Winston & Co ..  Before that they won a couple in the 1960's .. They've been SO BAD for SO MANY YEARS that I can't think there's anything they care about in any capacity in terms of even bothering to play this game .. and here we are getting 9.5's and 10.5's and my guess is folks will keep bettnig into this on until CIRCA comes out with their number .. maybe 3.5 or 4?? .. maybe less?.. idk .. I think If I was them I'd drop something very small out there because anything north of 4.5 should proooobably get blasted based on this spot .. 

Only reason I'm posting before Circa is because it feels like this will drop down dramatically ..we'll see .. I got it spread, ML and put them in a few parlays .. I do have a couple concerns like is this line massive due to some UCONN injury .. again .. something worth checking on but still tough to imagine this is anywhere close to a full TD when Circa drops .. TBD .. GOOD LUCK!

SMALLER

TULANE +7 

Revenge game 1 year in the making .. Memp bombed em last year and think we're getting something north of +4 because of a horrible spot and brutal takedown last week @UTSA .. just too many points here and we know tulane to be a very capable bunch .. too many pts IMO .. 

SMALLER

KENTUCKY +4 (CZR)

Such a rivalry we know UK is showing up to this game .. the offense stinks and might need to win a close one .. Florida could awaken but last game vs UGA was the big off the coach fired off a bye max effort only game that matters this year super rivalry spot .. wouldnt surprise me if they showed up a little flat this week back on the road for super rivalry that is very on Kentucky's bucket list this year .. good luck!

SMALLER

LSU +12.5

Took this pre-ssn GOY and things didnt quiiiiite work out how I wanted .. but here we are in another MASSIVE COACH CHANGE spot and I think this is one the whole team responds to because nobody liked what Kelly was doing and I think we could see one of those superhuman efforts coming in off a bye vs BAMA .. Just no way they pull a no show job here .. Feels like line should be around 10 if we get normal effort action and could see some inspired football giving us more value than that .. Good luck!

BRIDGE PLAY

SO MISS -6 (CIRCA)

Ark State playing in some great spots with inspired football .. my problem here is pulling surprise wins in THE BELT this year was on my radar as something we might see and pulling massive ones in Ark State's case isin't a big surprise .. very high variance team playing in a high variance conference .. So Miss is in great position to win the division and make the conf champ game .. they reallllly realllly need to not lose one down the stretch and just kinda think we have a solid team here that isin't getting theri due yet .. as they haven't all year .. and an Ark St team whose rating should be much lower .. hope these HATTI BOYZ can show up on the road and not make mistakes .. this D is legit good esp the secondary and if they play a good game no reason this should be close .. like it under a TD .. good luck!

Looks solid I love these late weeks. 

SMALLER

BOSTON COLLEGE +12.5

RED BANDANA GAME WOOP WOOP ... Can't drop the BP on it this BC team turned into UBER TURDS this year .. finally found some fortitude vs ND and I was spying this spot since pre-ssn for SMU as one I was hoping we'd get like some MASSIVE +24 or +28 or something humongous .. but alas we're stuck with 12.5 .. the real hope is BC has turned some kinda corner and pulled themselves out of the cellar in a meaningful way .. and can actually show up and throw a couple punches here .. and play with all the inspiration that the RBG tends to produce .. AND .. we like that SMU is off just a MASSIVE comeback OT win and its just a shock showing up in Boston this time of year early game slate and nothing goes quite perfect for em .. we'll see .. Ponies must win game still and I wouldn't expect a total dud game but not much would surprise me from them or really anyone else in the ACC going forward lol .. 

SMALLER

MISS STATE +8.5

Had it marked pre-ssn as a HORRIFIC spot and here's UGA coming to Stark Vegas in the early AM slot off a sure fire MAX EFFORT game .. neutral location but its still B2B roadies with a kinda streaky Texas team on deck that they reallllly now do have to pay alot of attn to .. Not big fans of the Bulldogs .. wish they lost to Arkansas and we were getting something north of 10 points for this one .. SP+ line was closer to 7 as recently as 2 weeks ago and given the big spot that Miss St no doubt had been eyeing since pre-ssn and the down spot nature for UGA think we can still grab this smaller here .. absolutely is still a must must win for UGA and my expectation is the best line to take might be like an H1 line or something focused early on in the gm .. could see UGA stumble early but wayyyy better coaching and roster suddently wakes up in H2 and run off w it .. But yeah I did have it marked "MASSIVE DOWN SPOT" on my pre-ssn schedule and yep .. gotta play my spots .. good luck!

Good luck Bridge.  

Uconn, UK, and LSU sound good. Good luck. Might join you on that LSU pick. 

@Bridge1

 UConn....Like this one alot.....

@lmb4321

Yeah buddy .. we'll see .. I don't know how Uconn truly stacks up its certainly a team with a few good things going .. QB is 22 TD's .. ZERO picks this yr .. got a great WR .. Duke's secondary is iffy .. the trouble prob starts with Duke's run D pass rush / blitz and if Conn can get traction and put drives together .. the other part is if Duke wants to they can prob win easy if their pass game is ON and not making mistakes vs this Conn pass D that's proved it can be torched and Conn can just lose control and lose big .. 

I'd say the line looks about right for a normal matchup .. Duke seems like they should be 7-10 point road fav .. but hard to find a more potentially distressed spot on the CFB schedule ... you got a G5 noncon nobody team late in the year on the road .. not just a conf sandwich both were MASSIVE must win games .. consider how intense last game was beating Clem in death valley ..the way they had to come back the win intensity etc .. got a 'for all the marbles' game on deck and B2B Tobacco Road spots beyond that with @UNC super rivalry and Wake to close out the year both will be MUST WINS to make the champ game .. lotta other BIIIG things they can spend their time on this week .. Seems totally delusional to think they'd have a path into the playoff w out a conf champ and L's to ILL, GT, Tulane .. and the goals for the conf and playoff are just so historic and massive .. potential program defining season where nobody cares what you did vs Uconn at all ..

Feels like Uconn woulda been staring at this spot since pre-ssn and while they made a bowl last week the goals for the team were big number of W's this year .. still a shot at 10 W ssn I can't imagine they haven't been thinking for some time about what to do in this gm .. off UAB home spot .. AF home spot on deck .. seems like a natural good spot w added major high motivation etc .. 

Can't imagine Diaz wouldn't have had very quick and concise call w his AD about the situation and everyone on the same page the results don't matter and to keep this low risk and just get back home healthy, treated like a win come contract time etc etc .. that's kinda the wonder here because Duke -9 almost feels like they lined this normally w out the spot or weighed the spot overall heavily to Uconn still considering that duke has a playoff resume to protect and maybe even want to boost it, etc .. maybe the PR's for Uconn lately just look very poor with the loss at Rice .. I thought they'd have have put it like Duke -3.5 or so .. maybe Duke shows up, we'll see .. GOOD LUCK!

@Bridge1

 Nice write up....interested to see where this line moves throughout the week....

I wouldn’t bet BC with your money. A great gambler years ago told me never bet on really bad teams and guess where BC falls lol BOL