Betting Week 1 openers

Just to clarify this . while I do not use stats to cap a matchup , I do look at them to see

what the public is likely to see and which way a line is likely to move.

Understanding direction on line movement will more likely help you get a better price

on a wager. Better price = greater chance to make a profit.

GLTA

Yeah Wise I really don't have a system to quantify play / no play decisions .. I'd get creamed trying to compete with all the better smarter faster systems out there.. I more want to see publicly available info which tends to be more influential on bettors and linesmakers... stats, power ratings, rankings, ret pro, etc and try to get an idea of what the team's expectations are ... more importantly how confident are 'they' and what makes them so .. then garner info that is maybe less influential and make some judgements ... Clem previews are off the charts confident ... #1 in many previews.. T-L, Etienne Heisman combo... made everyone a metric ass-load of money last year ... all the more inviting to get on board w them .. but hard for me to feel like I'd ever getting an edge playing on them without some major change in their circumstances... The WR sitch might end up being nothing and I can't quantify impact of playing the 3 new starters let alone the next 3 .. couple other concerns I have with this team given their hyper-drive confidence level but doesn't seem like week 1 is where I'd try to attack it... I welcome a nice big normal line for them vs  WF and Citidel hope they take them to the woodshed and see if @UVA is a better mark.. 

And yeah great call.. no contact and stringent practice policies... whose had to cancel a few 'in pads' practices already (ND)...  great if we had a quick reference of those but might have to dial up a few press conferences.... good news is there's only like 60 teams we gotta look into this year lol.. 

LSU NEWS - DE#1 NEIL FARRELL OUT.... DE #2 JUSTIN THOMAS (proj farrell backup) OUT... and #1NICKEL Kary Vincent opted out a few days back ... 

New DC and epic yeller Bo Pellini is installing that new 4-man look so look for some fresh faces in those key spots... sounds like a pretty tough start ... 

 Bo Pellini is no Dave Aranda either. LSU is going to be tough to bet on this season ,

FYI , for all of the " Gonna Kill ems " out there.

1st thing that comes to mind with LSU...for me (of course)

Is - has there ever been more off-season celebrating...patting on the back...you/we were the GREATEST TEAM IN HISTORY !!....doubt it > fat / happy ain't good...especially this year

Don't forget they lose their OC as well.....that wasn't Ensminger's offense LY > Brady is gone

BA like you were saying biggest line drop in history for Miss St game.... full TD less than your estimate?...

Not to get all conspiratorial here but seems like bookies could get away with sending up a bat signal that LSU is gunna be tossing out money like a martigras parade again this year by shading them a bunch in week 1.... Just playing that theory out for a sec.. I'd think some of the risks in doing that were already mitigated by avoiding a summer of folks dumping all dat fan money on them... also have to wonder how many braintrusts are out there are sitting around looking to blow a wad on anyone in week 1 let alone the super moneymaking fan-fav defending champs dealing with their zillions of uncertainties ... Or could just be my tin hat is getting a little hot in the summer here lol....

They lose their OC , DC , and a QB that played out of his mind .

Hope they open as a huge Fave. 

BA  

SMU - Michael Williams DT opting out RS this year... xfer from Stan expected to help beef up a depleted D-line that was maybe a bit underrated LY with some huge TFL/Sack numbers... They got a couple JC's behind him, maybe just doesn't want to blow his Sr year if they cut things short?... 

Of course nobody thinking about D when they think of the Mustangs... SMU w great pre-season hype with all they got back, which actually is a TON on offense and a bit on D ... but losing AA (2x?) Proche .. top 2 RB's were good for 1800 yds and 28 TD's, Xavier Williams was kinda unsung hero for the O LY .. and gaggle of the really good penetrators on D... Funny feeling they don't quite match up to LY on either side of the ball... 

Too bad about Williams . SMU needs all of the Defense it can muster to compete in that Conference .

Bridge  

^^^ SMU maybe another team bookies wouldnt mind seeing blow the doors off Texas State and look good vs a now quarterback-less TCU?.... 

Little scheduling quirk to look at... new opponents added to early schedule .... Not that they don't have time to prep but a few early additions that werent on the original schedule could make things a little tricky ... just noting SEC/ACC .. BYU, Army could pretty much list their whole season lol... 

SEC 

LSU - B2B additions @Vandy, Mizzou wks 2 and 3.... sandwiched between reg scheduled Miss St and @Florida.... How much do they even prep for those two?.... 

Mizzou - Adds wk1 Bama, @Tenn, add @LSU, Vandy... 

Ole Miss - Roadie to UK wk 2 squeezed in between Florida and Bama .. outch .. 

TA&M - Florida Wk 3 added .. sandwiched between divisional rivals @Bama, @Miss St... 

Florida - @A&M sandwiched between div. foe S.Car and LSU homers.. 

ACC - Little diff consideration since playing 'one big conf' format but still... Pitt's got super quirky....  

BC adds @Duke 9/19 and PITT 10/10 ... Pitt sandwiched between UNC, @VT

Clem - prob got off easiest with Mia homer added between UVA, @GT

FSU Additions come B2B off bye 10/10 @ND and UNC....  reg scheduled @L'ville after ....... Also start the year added GT homer... 

Miami - Adds @L'ville wk 2 9/19... sandwiched between UAB (must destroy) and FSU homer ... 

NC St kicks off w added VT homer before rival WF, Bye, Added @Pitt, @UVA B2B before reg scheduled Duke.. 3 of first 4 and b2b roadies .. woof..   

Pitt - 3 straight new opponents starting 9/26 V'ille, NC St, @BC followed by reg sch @Miami, ND..... Pitt also last team to get a bye, 10/31 after @ND.. also get latest first road game in ACC on 10/10 w @BC... their 3rd straight added opponent ... woof... 

UVA - Adds B2B NC St @WF .. sandwiched between @Clem, @Miami....

ND - Actually not bad because of all the ACC scheduling... only early addition is FSU homer on 10/10... red carpet treatment .. 

One thing that we are not talking about is one that may be most critical to our

success in Sports betting this season . That is our access to accurate information

to make wagering decisions . A couple of years back , I wrote about the fact that

Sports Betting would grow into a huge business and that one consequence of that

would be that wagering information available to bettors would diminish over time.

To that end , I suggested that all bettors develop multiple points of data access

in case it was needed. I took in one step further than that and developed a

non stat based capping method.

Sure enough , while many relied on Bill Connelly as their sole capping method ,

ESPN snaps him up , as well as Phil Steele. More of this is likely to follow.

My recommendation is this. In the enviornment we are in , assess your access

points for the information you need to cap with. Look for alternate sources for

similar information and check them for accuracy and completeness.

Better yet , find a new method to cap that doesn't rely on others data for your

success. If another BC comes along , I'm sure the market will see this as an

asset to bettors and move to acquire it , to profit from it.

Make sure the information you use this season will be accurate and 

comprehensive enough to give you a chance to profit in these difficult times.

GLTA

Be careful in where you choose to get your information from and verify it's accuracy.

back in Maceo's " Wiseguy " thread in post # 17 , I stated that Connelly' WP's were

accurate ( +/- 7 ) only about 53 % of the time . Massey , which also offers WP's was 

accurate only about 50 % of the time . Not good enough to assure yourself of making

a profit betting CFB. I believe that in the future , Books and Bettors alike will come to

rely on WP data , rather than stats as their primary means of establishing wagering

opportunities. The only question will be ... is your WP assessment more accurate than

your Bookmakers.

GLTA

Books are the first to know when something works and will adjust.  There is no way a publicly accessible WP will ever beat the books at a good enough rate to be profitable over a significant amount of time.

If you are a stat nerd and come up with something that works and don't bet big and don't share it, then that can work for a long time.

Look at Dr Bob from several years back.  He came up with the idea of adjusting box scores to get rid of fluke plays.  He was successful for a couple years then got too big and the books adjusted.  

That is absolutely correct , which is why i referenced the work of Connelly and Massey.

Neither is accurate enough to terrify the Bookmaking community. That does not mean

that the technology at a high level does not exist at this time or will in the future.

The point is , if you use WP as a capping method , is it consistently accurate enough 

to gain an edge over many trials . In most cases the answer is still no.

Thorpe 

Thorpe , this statement reminds me of something someone  ( on another Forum )

once posted to one of my " Theory " threads.

" Every method of capping college football has already been invented "

Clearly an incorrect statement as technology and analytics are in even greater

use today, and successfully , I might add to profit on sports betting from BOTH sides

of the counter.

The very statement highlighted above is just as incorrect. Books will not be the

first to know unless they are the ones who devise the method.

Thorpe  

FWIW , I talk a great deal about wagering and Capping theory because I believe it is

the future of what we do. I'm retired from serious Sports Betting now , but I've searched

for an accurate  ( that meets my standards for accuracy )method of determining WP for

over 40 years . I believe that advancements in data collection and dissemination that were

not available to me earlier in my career will now make this a reality for someone else ,

either Books or Bettors in the near future.

GLTA 

OK ST. NEWS - Davontavean "Big Play Tay" Martin - WR grad xfers from Wash St to OK.St.. Big 6'3'' multi year starter for the Coogs ...  Sanders really struggled finding receivers FR year outside of Wallace... Pokes also lost a big 6'6'' WR jordan mcrae he xfered in from So.Bam a few years back and was only good for 200 or so yds the last few years .. OK St already landed LSU xfer Dee Anderson at 6'6'' and have Jelani Woods 6'7'' at their TE (Cowboy) position and add Martin sounds like another big threat outside of Wallace.. sounds like a dangerous group!

USF News - Noted a number of players already opting out .. maybe biggest is Eddie McDoom ret starter at WR since they are looking to struggle to get a pass game together ... quite a few others mostly from that backup to 4th string from phil's depth chart ... seems like quite a few that started camp and then opted out ... hmm maybe new coaching crew trying to go full holgersen and shoot the moon with the roster this year?..   

SMU News - Eric Sutton #2 CB group in Phil's DC hits the opt out / portal .. Not a huge hit but they'll need to find some gold in their depth chart this year ... if they get thin in the DB's could be big trouble since already thin up front.. eek.. 

ESPN is reporting that UCLA  starting OT  Jake Burton has chosen to enter the Transfer Portal .

He is hoping to play somewhere this Fall.

BA , Is Phil Steele doing his roster changes update this year ?

It would sure help us to sort some of this stuff out.

BA  

That was quick..... Baylor 

Bridge  

FYI , as of Wednesday , 91 players have opted out of the 2020 College football season.

There have also been a number of players entering the " Transfer Portal " in an attempt

to play this season as well .

Season is almost here. Make sure you know what the team roster you are betting on is

made up of as well as what their production is likely to be in this " new " enviornment.

GLTA  

Wise you got a link with the 91 players listed?... I've been tracking them off of the rotowire fantasy news site but I don't think they have a truly complete list... 

Also can't sleep on suspensions, injuries, transfers out / transfers in, eligibility and others that haven't reported to camp yet .. I was just reminded Oklahoma had a few notable early season suspensions stemming from bad behavior during the playoff week ... a couple notable ones from the D that might be out the first five or so games...