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    All Forums | College Football

    Betting Week 1 openers

    «First Previous 789 ... 101112 Next Last»
    WISEGUY36
    Bridge1
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    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2020 - 11:39 AM ET #151

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1: Word up Wise... Saw the Yahoo top 25 today (minus big/pac, etc)... some recent news made on some of those way up there teams ..   Oklahoma #4 - Already down Kennedy Brooks, but #2 RB Stevenson is suspended a couple games now unclear how many/how long just said several... #2 QB Tanner Mordechai is out a period of time w injury... maybe no big deal but sounded like he was gunna at least compete w Rattler .... Caleb Kelly starting LB out with an ACL, DL Jalen Redmond most sacks LY looks like he'll be RS'ing due to some legal trouble.. that line already had a few questions on it ... IDK... Its starting to add up  ..  Clem at #1 .... their 3 projected starting WR's not in the scrimmage and missing practice... unclear what the deal is with them but Amari was out for a good part of LY and replacing the 3 super studs this year.... eek? UF at #6... their 3 proj. WR's missing practice .. speculation they might Opt.. figure a headline would note if they were back but didn't see that rectified yet..   Bridge , as a Bettor , this concerns me a great deal . With Bookmakers eager to hang some lines and get some revenue coming in , and Cappers looking to put some cash to work, this could be a major problem for bettors. Players not practicing in protest , the potential for treams to have multiple opt outs at a position ,will make it hard to guage production from teams in Week 1. If I'm a Clemson backer , and their WR's ain't practicing , Books are still gonna put a line up like everything is OK. I don't use stats to cap a matchup because stats don't reflect the exact matchup itself , just how teams played vs other opponents . IMO , a stat based capping method will prove to be a futile exercise this season. Last minute roster moves for health issues ,players playing out of shape , etc . will make cashing in week 1 very challenging. FYI , if you can find out which schools will have a " non contact " policy for practices, this should be looked at when capping week 1 games. Don't bet early just to be in the action , make the wager only when you are sure of the teams status on gameday. It may save you some money.

     

    Just to clarify this . while I do not use stats to cap a matchup , I do look at them to see

    what the public is likely to see and which way a line is likely to move.

    Understanding direction on line movement will more likely help you get a better price

    on a wager. Better price = greater chance to make a profit.

     

    GLTA

     

    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1: Word up Wise... Saw the Yahoo top 25 today (minus big/pac, etc)... some recent news made on some of those way up there teams ..   Oklahoma #4 - Already down Kennedy Brooks, but #2 RB Stevenson is suspended a couple games now unclear how many/how long just said several... #2 QB Tanner Mordechai is out a period of time w injury... maybe no big deal but sounded like he was gunna at least compete w Rattler .... Caleb Kelly starting LB out with an ACL, DL Jalen Redmond most sacks LY looks like he'll be RS'ing due to some legal trouble.. that line already had a few questions on it ... IDK... Its starting to add up  ..  Clem at #1 .... their 3 projected starting WR's not in the scrimmage and missing practice... unclear what the deal is with them but Amari was out for a good part of LY and replacing the 3 super studs this year.... eek? UF at #6... their 3 proj. WR's missing practice .. speculation they might Opt.. figure a headline would note if they were back but didn't see that rectified yet..   Bridge , as a Bettor , this concerns me a great deal . With Bookmakers eager to hang some lines and get some revenue coming in , and Cappers looking to put some cash to work, this could be a major problem for bettors. Players not practicing in protest , the potential for treams to have multiple opt outs at a position ,will make it hard to guage production from teams in Week 1. If I'm a Clemson backer , and their WR's ain't practicing , Books are still gonna put a line up like everything is OK. I don't use stats to cap a matchup because stats don't reflect the exact matchup itself , just how teams played vs other opponents . IMO , a stat based capping method will prove to be a futile exercise this season. Last minute roster moves for health issues ,players playing out of shape , etc . will make cashing in week 1 very challenging. FYI , if you can find out which schools will have a " non contact " policy for practices, this should be looked at when capping week 1 games. Don't bet early just to be in the action , make the wager only when you are sure of the teams status on gameday. It may save you some money.

     

    Just to clarify this . while I do not use stats to cap a matchup , I do look at them to see

    what the public is likely to see and which way a line is likely to move.

    Understanding direction on line movement will more likely help you get a better price

    on a wager. Better price = greater chance to make a profit.

     

    GLTA

     

     
    Bridge1
    Bridge1
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    Posts: 6311
    Posted: Aug. 21, 2020 - 11:58 AM ET #152

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Bridge , as a Bettor , this concerns me a great deal . With Bookmakers eager to hang some lines and get some revenue coming in , and Cappers looking to put some cash to work, this could be a major problem for bettors. Players not practicing in protest , the potential for treams to have multiple opt outs at a position ,will make it hard to guage production from teams in Week 1. If I'm a Clemson backer , and their WR's ain't practicing , Books are still gonna put a line up like everything is OK. I don't use stats to cap a matchup because stats don't reflect the exact matchup itself , just how teams played vs other opponents . IMO , a stat based capping method will prove to be a futile exercise this season. Last minute roster moves for health issues ,players playing out of shape , etc . will make cashing in week 1 very challenging. FYI , if you can find out which schools will have a " non contact " policy for practices, this should be looked at when capping week 1 games. Don't bet early just to be in the action , make the wager only when you are sure of the teams status on gameday. It may save you some money.

    Yeah Wise I really don't have a system to quantify play / no play decisions .. I'd get creamed trying to compete with all the better smarter faster systems out there.. I more want to see publicly available info which tends to be more influential on bettors and linesmakers... stats, power ratings, rankings, ret pro, etc and try to get an idea of what the team's expectations are ... more importantly how confident are 'they' and what makes them so .. then garner info that is maybe less influential and make some judgements ... Clem previews are off the charts confident ... #1 in many previews.. T-L, Etienne Heisman combo... made everyone a metric ass-load of money last year ... all the more inviting to get on board w them .. but hard for me to feel like I'd ever getting an edge playing on them without some major change in their circumstances... The WR sitch might end up being nothing and I can't quantify impact of playing the 3 new starters let alone the next 3 .. couple other concerns I have with this team given their hyper-drive confidence level but doesn't seem like week 1 is where I'd try to attack it... I welcome a nice big normal line for them vs  WF and Citidel hope they take them to the woodshed and see if @UVA is a better mark.. 

    And yeah great call.. no contact and stringent practice policies... whose had to cancel a few 'in pads' practices already (ND)...  great if we had a quick reference of those but might have to dial up a few press conferences.... good news is there's only like 60 teams we gotta look into this year lol.. 

     

     

     

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Bridge , as a Bettor , this concerns me a great deal . With Bookmakers eager to hang some lines and get some revenue coming in , and Cappers looking to put some cash to work, this could be a major problem for bettors. Players not practicing in protest , the potential for treams to have multiple opt outs at a position ,will make it hard to guage production from teams in Week 1. If I'm a Clemson backer , and their WR's ain't practicing , Books are still gonna put a line up like everything is OK. I don't use stats to cap a matchup because stats don't reflect the exact matchup itself , just how teams played vs other opponents . IMO , a stat based capping method will prove to be a futile exercise this season. Last minute roster moves for health issues ,players playing out of shape , etc . will make cashing in week 1 very challenging. FYI , if you can find out which schools will have a " non contact " policy for practices, this should be looked at when capping week 1 games. Don't bet early just to be in the action , make the wager only when you are sure of the teams status on gameday. It may save you some money.

    Yeah Wise I really don't have a system to quantify play / no play decisions .. I'd get creamed trying to compete with all the better smarter faster systems out there.. I more want to see publicly available info which tends to be more influential on bettors and linesmakers... stats, power ratings, rankings, ret pro, etc and try to get an idea of what the team's expectations are ... more importantly how confident are 'they' and what makes them so .. then garner info that is maybe less influential and make some judgements ... Clem previews are off the charts confident ... #1 in many previews.. T-L, Etienne Heisman combo... made everyone a metric ass-load of money last year ... all the more inviting to get on board w them .. but hard for me to feel like I'd ever getting an edge playing on them without some major change in their circumstances... The WR sitch might end up being nothing and I can't quantify impact of playing the 3 new starters let alone the next 3 .. couple other concerns I have with this team given their hyper-drive confidence level but doesn't seem like week 1 is where I'd try to attack it... I welcome a nice big normal line for them vs  WF and Citidel hope they take them to the woodshed and see if @UVA is a better mark.. 

    And yeah great call.. no contact and stringent practice policies... whose had to cancel a few 'in pads' practices already (ND)...  great if we had a quick reference of those but might have to dial up a few press conferences.... good news is there's only like 60 teams we gotta look into this year lol.. 

     

     

     

     

     
    Bridge1
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2020 - 6:56 PM ET #153

    LSU NEWS - DE#1 NEIL FARRELL OUT.... DE #2 JUSTIN THOMAS (proj farrell backup) OUT... and #1NICKEL Kary Vincent opted out a few days back ... 

    New DC and epic yeller Bo Pellini is installing that new 4-man look so look for some fresh faces in those key spots... sounds like a pretty tough start ... 

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    LSU NEWS - DE#1 NEIL FARRELL OUT.... DE #2 JUSTIN THOMAS (proj farrell backup) OUT... and #1NICKEL Kary Vincent opted out a few days back ... 

    New DC and epic yeller Bo Pellini is installing that new 4-man look so look for some fresh faces in those key spots... sounds like a pretty tough start ... 

     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 22, 2020 - 9:53 AM ET #154

     Bo Pellini is no Dave Aranda either. LSU is going to be tough to bet on this season ,

    FYI , for all of the " Gonna Kill ems " out there.

    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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     Bo Pellini is no Dave Aranda either. LSU is going to be tough to bet on this season ,

    FYI , for all of the " Gonna Kill ems " out there.

     
    bookieassassin
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    Posted: Aug. 22, 2020 - 11:04 AM ET #155

    1st thing that comes to mind with LSU...for me (of course)

    Is - has there ever been more off-season celebrating...patting on the back...you/we were the GREATEST TEAM IN HISTORY !!....doubt it > fat / happy ain't good...especially this year

    Don't forget they lose their OC as well.....that wasn't Ensminger's offense LY > Brady is gone

    It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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    1st thing that comes to mind with LSU...for me (of course)

    Is - has there ever been more off-season celebrating...patting on the back...you/we were the GREATEST TEAM IN HISTORY !!....doubt it > fat / happy ain't good...especially this year

    Don't forget they lose their OC as well.....that wasn't Ensminger's offense LY > Brady is gone

     
    Bridge1
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    Posted: Aug. 22, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET #156

    BA like you were saying biggest line drop in history for Miss St game.... full TD less than your estimate?...

    Not to get all conspiratorial here but seems like bookies could get away with sending up a bat signal that LSU is gunna be tossing out money like a martigras parade again this year by shading them a bunch in week 1.... Just playing that theory out for a sec.. I'd think some of the risks in doing that were already mitigated by avoiding a summer of folks dumping all dat fan money on them... also have to wonder how many braintrusts are out there are sitting around looking to blow a wad on anyone in week 1 let alone the super moneymaking fan-fav defending champs dealing with their zillions of uncertainties ... Or could just be my tin hat is getting a little hot in the summer here lol....

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    BA like you were saying biggest line drop in history for Miss St game.... full TD less than your estimate?...

    Not to get all conspiratorial here but seems like bookies could get away with sending up a bat signal that LSU is gunna be tossing out money like a martigras parade again this year by shading them a bunch in week 1.... Just playing that theory out for a sec.. I'd think some of the risks in doing that were already mitigated by avoiding a summer of folks dumping all dat fan money on them... also have to wonder how many braintrusts are out there are sitting around looking to blow a wad on anyone in week 1 let alone the super moneymaking fan-fav defending champs dealing with their zillions of uncertainties ... Or could just be my tin hat is getting a little hot in the summer here lol....

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 22, 2020 - 1:15 PM ET #157

    Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

    1st thing that comes to mind with LSU...for me (of course) Is - has there ever been more off-season celebrating...patting on the back...you/we were the GREATEST TEAM IN HISTORY !!....doubt it > fat / happy ain't good...especially this year Don't forget they lose their OC as well.....that wasn't Ensminger's offense LY > Brady is gone

     

     

    They lose their OC , DC , and a QB that played out of his mind .

    Hope they open as a huge Fave.  bigsmile

     

    BA   peace_5

    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

    1st thing that comes to mind with LSU...for me (of course) Is - has there ever been more off-season celebrating...patting on the back...you/we were the GREATEST TEAM IN HISTORY !!....doubt it > fat / happy ain't good...especially this year Don't forget they lose their OC as well.....that wasn't Ensminger's offense LY > Brady is gone

     

     

    They lose their OC , DC , and a QB that played out of his mind .

    Hope they open as a huge Fave.  bigsmile

     

    BA   peace_5

     
    Bridge1
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    Posted: Aug. 22, 2020 - 1:20 PM ET #158

    SMU - Michael Williams DT opting out RS this year... xfer from Stan expected to help beef up a depleted D-line that was maybe a bit underrated LY with some huge TFL/Sack numbers... They got a couple JC's behind him, maybe just doesn't want to blow his Sr year if they cut things short?... 

    Of course nobody thinking about D when they think of the Mustangs... SMU w great pre-season hype with all they got back, which actually is a TON on offense and a bit on D ... but losing AA (2x?) Proche .. top 2 RB's were good for 1800 yds and 28 TD's, Xavier Williams was kinda unsung hero for the O LY .. and gaggle of the really good penetrators on D... Funny feeling they don't quite match up to LY on either side of the ball... 

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    SMU - Michael Williams DT opting out RS this year... xfer from Stan expected to help beef up a depleted D-line that was maybe a bit underrated LY with some huge TFL/Sack numbers... They got a couple JC's behind him, maybe just doesn't want to blow his Sr year if they cut things short?... 

    Of course nobody thinking about D when they think of the Mustangs... SMU w great pre-season hype with all they got back, which actually is a TON on offense and a bit on D ... but losing AA (2x?) Proche .. top 2 RB's were good for 1800 yds and 28 TD's, Xavier Williams was kinda unsung hero for the O LY .. and gaggle of the really good penetrators on D... Funny feeling they don't quite match up to LY on either side of the ball... 

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 22, 2020 - 1:24 PM ET #159

    Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:

    SMU - Michael Williams DT opting out RS this year... xfer from Stan expected to help beef up a depleted D-line that was maybe a bit underrated LY with some huge TFL/Sack numbers... They got a couple JC's behind him, maybe just doesn't want to blow his Sr year if they cut things short?...  Of course nobody thinking about D when they think of the Mustangs... SMU w great pre-season hype with all they got back, which actually is a TON on offense and a bit on D ... but losing AA (2x?) Proche .. top 2 RB's were good for 1800 yds and 28 TD's, Xavier Williams was kinda unsung hero for the O LY .. and gaggle of the really good penetrators on D... Funny feeling they don't quite match up to LY on either side of the ball...

     

    Too bad about Williams . SMU needs all of the Defense it can muster to compete in that Conference .

     

    Bridge   peace_5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:

    SMU - Michael Williams DT opting out RS this year... xfer from Stan expected to help beef up a depleted D-line that was maybe a bit underrated LY with some huge TFL/Sack numbers... They got a couple JC's behind him, maybe just doesn't want to blow his Sr year if they cut things short?...  Of course nobody thinking about D when they think of the Mustangs... SMU w great pre-season hype with all they got back, which actually is a TON on offense and a bit on D ... but losing AA (2x?) Proche .. top 2 RB's were good for 1800 yds and 28 TD's, Xavier Williams was kinda unsung hero for the O LY .. and gaggle of the really good penetrators on D... Funny feeling they don't quite match up to LY on either side of the ball...

     

    Too bad about Williams . SMU needs all of the Defense it can muster to compete in that Conference .

     

    Bridge   peace_5

     
    Bridge1
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    Posted: Aug. 22, 2020 - 1:24 PM ET #160

    ^^^ SMU maybe another team bookies wouldnt mind seeing blow the doors off Texas State and look good vs a now quarterback-less TCU?.... 

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    ^^^ SMU maybe another team bookies wouldnt mind seeing blow the doors off Texas State and look good vs a now quarterback-less TCU?.... 

     
    Bridge1
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    Posted: Aug. 22, 2020 - 5:04 PM ET #161

    Little scheduling quirk to look at... new opponents added to early schedule .... Not that they don't have time to prep but a few early additions that werent on the original schedule could make things a little tricky ... just noting SEC/ACC .. BYU, Army could pretty much list their whole season lol... 

    SEC 

    LSU - B2B additions @Vandy, Mizzou wks 2 and 3.... sandwiched between reg scheduled Miss St and @Florida.... How much do they even prep for those two?.... 

    Mizzou - Adds wk1 Bama, @Tenn, add @LSU, Vandy... 

    Ole Miss - Roadie to UK wk 2 squeezed in between Florida and Bama .. outch .. 

    TA&M - Florida Wk 3 added .. sandwiched between divisional rivals @Bama, @Miss St... 

    Florida - @A&M sandwiched between div. foe S.Car and LSU homers.. 

     

    ACC - Little diff consideration since playing 'one big conf' format but still... Pitt's got super quirky....  

    BC adds @Duke 9/19 and PITT 10/10 ... Pitt sandwiched between UNC, @VT

    Clem - prob got off easiest with Mia homer added between UVA, @GT

    FSU Additions come B2B off bye 10/10 @ND and UNC....  reg scheduled @L'ville after ....... Also start the year added GT homer... 

    Miami - Adds @L'ville wk 2 9/19... sandwiched between UAB (must destroy) and FSU homer ... 

    NC St kicks off w added VT homer before rival WF, Bye, Added @Pitt, @UVA B2B before reg scheduled Duke.. 3 of first 4 and b2b roadies .. woof..   

    Pitt - 3 straight new opponents starting 9/26 V'ille, NC St, @BC followed by reg sch @Miami, ND..... Pitt also last team to get a bye, 10/31 after @ND.. also get latest first road game in ACC on 10/10 w @BC... their 3rd straight added opponent ... woof... 

    UVA - Adds B2B NC St @WF .. sandwiched between @Clem, @Miami....

    ND - Actually not bad because of all the ACC scheduling... only early addition is FSU homer on 10/10... red carpet treatment .. 

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    Little scheduling quirk to look at... new opponents added to early schedule .... Not that they don't have time to prep but a few early additions that werent on the original schedule could make things a little tricky ... just noting SEC/ACC .. BYU, Army could pretty much list their whole season lol... 

    SEC 

    LSU - B2B additions @Vandy, Mizzou wks 2 and 3.... sandwiched between reg scheduled Miss St and @Florida.... How much do they even prep for those two?.... 

    Mizzou - Adds wk1 Bama, @Tenn, add @LSU, Vandy... 

    Ole Miss - Roadie to UK wk 2 squeezed in between Florida and Bama .. outch .. 

    TA&M - Florida Wk 3 added .. sandwiched between divisional rivals @Bama, @Miss St... 

    Florida - @A&M sandwiched between div. foe S.Car and LSU homers.. 

     

    ACC - Little diff consideration since playing 'one big conf' format but still... Pitt's got super quirky....  

    BC adds @Duke 9/19 and PITT 10/10 ... Pitt sandwiched between UNC, @VT

    Clem - prob got off easiest with Mia homer added between UVA, @GT

    FSU Additions come B2B off bye 10/10 @ND and UNC....  reg scheduled @L'ville after ....... Also start the year added GT homer... 

    Miami - Adds @L'ville wk 2 9/19... sandwiched between UAB (must destroy) and FSU homer ... 

    NC St kicks off w added VT homer before rival WF, Bye, Added @Pitt, @UVA B2B before reg scheduled Duke.. 3 of first 4 and b2b roadies .. woof..   

    Pitt - 3 straight new opponents starting 9/26 V'ille, NC St, @BC followed by reg sch @Miami, ND..... Pitt also last team to get a bye, 10/31 after @ND.. also get latest first road game in ACC on 10/10 w @BC... their 3rd straight added opponent ... woof... 

    UVA - Adds B2B NC St @WF .. sandwiched between @Clem, @Miami....

    ND - Actually not bad because of all the ACC scheduling... only early addition is FSU homer on 10/10... red carpet treatment .. 

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 23, 2020 - 8:57 AM ET #162

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: Bridge , as a Bettor , this concerns me a great deal . With Bookmakers eager to hang some lines and get some revenue coming in , and Cappers looking to put some cash to work, this could be a major problem for bettors. Players not practicing in protest , the potential for treams to have multiple opt outs at a position ,will make it hard to guage production from teams in Week 1. If I'm a Clemson backer , and their WR's ain't practicing , Books are still gonna put a line up like everything is OK. I don't use stats to cap a matchup because stats don't reflect the exact matchup itself , just how teams played vs other opponents . IMO , a stat based capping method will prove to be a futile exercise this season. Last minute roster moves for health issues ,players playing out of shape , etc . will make cashing in week 1 very challenging. FYI , if you can find out which schools will have a " non contact " policy for practices, this should be looked at when capping week 1 games. Don't bet early just to be in the action , make the wager only when you are sure of the teams status on gameday. It may save you some money.   Just to clarify this . while I do not use stats to cap a matchup , I do look at them to see what the public is likely to see and which way a line is likely to move. Understanding direction on line movement will more likely help you get a better price on a wager. Better price = greater chance to make a profit.   GLTA

     

    One thing that we are not talking about is one that may be most critical to our

    success in Sports betting this season . That is our access to accurate information

    to make wagering decisions . A couple of years back , I wrote about the fact that

    Sports Betting would grow into a huge business and that one consequence of that

    would be that wagering information available to bettors would diminish over time.

    To that end , I suggested that all bettors develop multiple points of data access

    in case it was needed. I took in one step further than that and developed a

    non stat based capping method.

    Sure enough , while many relied on Bill Connelly as their sole capping method ,

    ESPN snaps him up , as well as Phil Steele. More of this is likely to follow.

    My recommendation is this. In the enviornment we are in , assess your access

    points for the information you need to cap with. Look for alternate sources for

    similar information and check them for accuracy and completeness.

    Better yet , find a new method to cap that doesn't rely on others data for your

    success. If another BC comes along , I'm sure the market will see this as an

    asset to bettors and move to acquire it , to profit from it.

    Make sure the information you use this season will be accurate and 

    comprehensive enough to give you a chance to profit in these difficult times.

    GLTA

    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: Bridge , as a Bettor , this concerns me a great deal . With Bookmakers eager to hang some lines and get some revenue coming in , and Cappers looking to put some cash to work, this could be a major problem for bettors. Players not practicing in protest , the potential for treams to have multiple opt outs at a position ,will make it hard to guage production from teams in Week 1. If I'm a Clemson backer , and their WR's ain't practicing , Books are still gonna put a line up like everything is OK. I don't use stats to cap a matchup because stats don't reflect the exact matchup itself , just how teams played vs other opponents . IMO , a stat based capping method will prove to be a futile exercise this season. Last minute roster moves for health issues ,players playing out of shape , etc . will make cashing in week 1 very challenging. FYI , if you can find out which schools will have a " non contact " policy for practices, this should be looked at when capping week 1 games. Don't bet early just to be in the action , make the wager only when you are sure of the teams status on gameday. It may save you some money.   Just to clarify this . while I do not use stats to cap a matchup , I do look at them to see what the public is likely to see and which way a line is likely to move. Understanding direction on line movement will more likely help you get a better price on a wager. Better price = greater chance to make a profit.   GLTA

     

    One thing that we are not talking about is one that may be most critical to our

    success in Sports betting this season . That is our access to accurate information

    to make wagering decisions . A couple of years back , I wrote about the fact that

    Sports Betting would grow into a huge business and that one consequence of that

    would be that wagering information available to bettors would diminish over time.

    To that end , I suggested that all bettors develop multiple points of data access

    in case it was needed. I took in one step further than that and developed a

    non stat based capping method.

    Sure enough , while many relied on Bill Connelly as their sole capping method ,

    ESPN snaps him up , as well as Phil Steele. More of this is likely to follow.

    My recommendation is this. In the enviornment we are in , assess your access

    points for the information you need to cap with. Look for alternate sources for

    similar information and check them for accuracy and completeness.

    Better yet , find a new method to cap that doesn't rely on others data for your

    success. If another BC comes along , I'm sure the market will see this as an

    asset to bettors and move to acquire it , to profit from it.

    Make sure the information you use this season will be accurate and 

    comprehensive enough to give you a chance to profit in these difficult times.

    GLTA

     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 23, 2020 - 10:22 AM ET #163

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: Bridge , as a Bettor , this concerns me a great deal . With Bookmakers eager to hang some lines and get some revenue coming in , and Cappers looking to put some cash to work, this could be a major problem for bettors. Players not practicing in protest , the potential for treams to have multiple opt outs at a position ,will make it hard to guage production from teams in Week 1. If I'm a Clemson backer , and their WR's ain't practicing , Books are still gonna put a line up like everything is OK. I don't use stats to cap a matchup because stats don't reflect the exact matchup itself , just how teams played vs other opponents . IMO , a stat based capping method will prove to be a futile exercise this season. Last minute roster moves for health issues ,players playing out of shape , etc . will make cashing in week 1 very challenging. FYI , if you can find out which schools will have a " non contact " policy for practices, this should be looked at when capping week 1 games. Don't bet early just to be in the action , make the wager only when you are sure of the teams status on gameday. It may save you some money.   Just to clarify this . while I do not use stats to cap a matchup , I do look at them to see what the public is likely to see and which way a line is likely to move. Understanding direction on line movement will more likely help you get a better price on a wager. Better price = greater chance to make a profit.   GLTA   One thing that we are not talking about is one that may be most critical to our success in Sports betting this season . That is our access to accurate information to make wagering decisions . A couple of years back , I wrote about the fact that Sports Betting would grow into a huge business and that one consequence of that would be that wagering information available to bettors would diminish over time. To that end , I suggested that all bettors develop multiple points of data access in case it was needed. I took in one step further than that and developed a non stat based capping method. Sure enough , while many relied on Bill Connelly as their sole capping method , ESPN snaps him up , as well as Phil Steele. More of this is likely to follow. My recommendation is this. In the enviornment we are in , assess your access points for the information you need to cap with. Look for alternate sources for similar information and check them for accuracy and completeness. Better yet , find a new method to cap that doesn't rely on others data for your success. If another BC comes along , I'm sure the market will see this as an asset to bettors and move to acquire it , to profit from it. Make sure the information you use this season will be accurate and  comprehensive enough to give you a chance to profit in these difficult times. GLTA

     

     

    Be careful in where you choose to get your information from and verify it's accuracy.

    back in Maceo's " Wiseguy " thread in post # 17 , I stated that Connelly' WP's were

    accurate ( +/- 7 ) only about 53 % of the time . Massey , which also offers WP's was 

    accurate only about 50 % of the time . Not good enough to assure yourself of making

    a profit betting CFB. I believe that in the future , Books and Bettors alike will come to

    rely on WP data , rather than stats as their primary means of establishing wagering

    opportunities. The only question will be ... is your WP assessment more accurate than

    your Bookmakers.

     

    GLTA

     

     

     

    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: Bridge , as a Bettor , this concerns me a great deal . With Bookmakers eager to hang some lines and get some revenue coming in , and Cappers looking to put some cash to work, this could be a major problem for bettors. Players not practicing in protest , the potential for treams to have multiple opt outs at a position ,will make it hard to guage production from teams in Week 1. If I'm a Clemson backer , and their WR's ain't practicing , Books are still gonna put a line up like everything is OK. I don't use stats to cap a matchup because stats don't reflect the exact matchup itself , just how teams played vs other opponents . IMO , a stat based capping method will prove to be a futile exercise this season. Last minute roster moves for health issues ,players playing out of shape , etc . will make cashing in week 1 very challenging. FYI , if you can find out which schools will have a " non contact " policy for practices, this should be looked at when capping week 1 games. Don't bet early just to be in the action , make the wager only when you are sure of the teams status on gameday. It may save you some money.   Just to clarify this . while I do not use stats to cap a matchup , I do look at them to see what the public is likely to see and which way a line is likely to move. Understanding direction on line movement will more likely help you get a better price on a wager. Better price = greater chance to make a profit.   GLTA   One thing that we are not talking about is one that may be most critical to our success in Sports betting this season . That is our access to accurate information to make wagering decisions . A couple of years back , I wrote about the fact that Sports Betting would grow into a huge business and that one consequence of that would be that wagering information available to bettors would diminish over time. To that end , I suggested that all bettors develop multiple points of data access in case it was needed. I took in one step further than that and developed a non stat based capping method. Sure enough , while many relied on Bill Connelly as their sole capping method , ESPN snaps him up , as well as Phil Steele. More of this is likely to follow. My recommendation is this. In the enviornment we are in , assess your access points for the information you need to cap with. Look for alternate sources for similar information and check them for accuracy and completeness. Better yet , find a new method to cap that doesn't rely on others data for your success. If another BC comes along , I'm sure the market will see this as an asset to bettors and move to acquire it , to profit from it. Make sure the information you use this season will be accurate and  comprehensive enough to give you a chance to profit in these difficult times. GLTA

     

     

    Be careful in where you choose to get your information from and verify it's accuracy.

    back in Maceo's " Wiseguy " thread in post # 17 , I stated that Connelly' WP's were

    accurate ( +/- 7 ) only about 53 % of the time . Massey , which also offers WP's was 

    accurate only about 50 % of the time . Not good enough to assure yourself of making

    a profit betting CFB. I believe that in the future , Books and Bettors alike will come to

    rely on WP data , rather than stats as their primary means of establishing wagering

    opportunities. The only question will be ... is your WP assessment more accurate than

    your Bookmakers.

     

    GLTA

     

     

     

     
    thorpe
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    Posted: Aug. 23, 2020 - 10:50 AM ET #164

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    is your WP assessment more accurate than your Bookmakers.   GLTA

     

    Books are the first to know when something works and will adjust.  There is no way a publicly accessible WP will ever beat the books at a good enough rate to be profitable over a significant amount of time.

    If you are a stat nerd and come up with something that works and don't bet big and don't share it, then that can work for a long time.

    Look at Dr Bob from several years back.  He came up with the idea of adjusting box scores to get rid of fluke plays.  He was successful for a couple years then got too big and the books adjusted.  

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    is your WP assessment more accurate than your Bookmakers.   GLTA

     

    Books are the first to know when something works and will adjust.  There is no way a publicly accessible WP will ever beat the books at a good enough rate to be profitable over a significant amount of time.

    If you are a stat nerd and come up with something that works and don't bet big and don't share it, then that can work for a long time.

    Look at Dr Bob from several years back.  He came up with the idea of adjusting box scores to get rid of fluke plays.  He was successful for a couple years then got too big and the books adjusted.  

     

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 23, 2020 - 11:23 AM ET #165

    Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: is your WP assessment more accurate than your Bookmakers.   GLTA   Books are the first to know when something works and will adjust.  There is no way a publicly accessible WP will ever beat the books at a good enough rate to be profitable over a significant amount of time. If you are a stat nerd and come up with something that works and don't bet big and don't share it, then that can work for a long time. Look at Dr Bob from several years back.  He came up with the idea of adjusting box scores to get rid of fluke plays.  He was successful for a couple years then got too big and the books adjusted.

     

    That is absolutely correct , which is why i referenced the work of Connelly and Massey.

    Neither is accurate enough to terrify the Bookmaking community. That does not mean

    that the technology at a high level does not exist at this time or will in the future.

    The point is , if you use WP as a capping method , is it consistently accurate enough 

    to gain an edge over many trials . In most cases the answer is still no.

     

    Thorpe  peace_5

    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: is your WP assessment more accurate than your Bookmakers.   GLTA   Books are the first to know when something works and will adjust.  There is no way a publicly accessible WP will ever beat the books at a good enough rate to be profitable over a significant amount of time. If you are a stat nerd and come up with something that works and don't bet big and don't share it, then that can work for a long time. Look at Dr Bob from several years back.  He came up with the idea of adjusting box scores to get rid of fluke plays.  He was successful for a couple years then got too big and the books adjusted.

     

    That is absolutely correct , which is why i referenced the work of Connelly and Massey.

    Neither is accurate enough to terrify the Bookmaking community. That does not mean

    that the technology at a high level does not exist at this time or will in the future.

    The point is , if you use WP as a capping method , is it consistently accurate enough 

    to gain an edge over many trials . In most cases the answer is still no.

     

    Thorpe  peace_5

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 23, 2020 - 12:45 PM ET #166

    Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: is your WP assessment more accurate than your Bookmakers.   GLTA   Books are the first to know when something works and will adjust.  There is no way a publicly accessible WP will ever beat the books at a good enough rate to be profitable over a significant amount of time. If you are a stat nerd and come up with something that works and don't bet big and don't share it, then that can work for a long time. Look at Dr Bob from several years back.  He came up with the idea of adjusting box scores to get rid of fluke plays.  He was successful for a couple years then got too big and the books adjusted.

     

    Thorpe , this statement reminds me of something someone  ( on another Forum )

    once posted to one of my " Theory " threads.

    " Every method of capping college football has already been invented "

    Clearly an incorrect statement as technology and analytics are in even greater

    use today, and successfully , I might add to profit on sports betting from BOTH sides

    of the counter.

    The very statement highlighted above is just as incorrect. Books will not be the

    first to know unless they are the ones who devise the method.

     

    Thorpe   peace_5

    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: is your WP assessment more accurate than your Bookmakers.   GLTA   Books are the first to know when something works and will adjust.  There is no way a publicly accessible WP will ever beat the books at a good enough rate to be profitable over a significant amount of time. If you are a stat nerd and come up with something that works and don't bet big and don't share it, then that can work for a long time. Look at Dr Bob from several years back.  He came up with the idea of adjusting box scores to get rid of fluke plays.  He was successful for a couple years then got too big and the books adjusted.

     

    Thorpe , this statement reminds me of something someone  ( on another Forum )

    once posted to one of my " Theory " threads.

    " Every method of capping college football has already been invented "

    Clearly an incorrect statement as technology and analytics are in even greater

    use today, and successfully , I might add to profit on sports betting from BOTH sides

    of the counter.

    The very statement highlighted above is just as incorrect. Books will not be the

    first to know unless they are the ones who devise the method.

     

    Thorpe   peace_5

     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 23, 2020 - 1:59 PM ET #167

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Quote Originally Posted by thorpe: Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: is your WP assessment more accurate than your Bookmakers.   GLTA   Books are the first to know when something works and will adjust.  There is no way a publicly accessible WP will ever beat the books at a good enough rate to be profitable over a significant amount of time. If you are a stat nerd and come up with something that works and don't bet big and don't share it, then that can work for a long time. Look at Dr Bob from several years back.  He came up with the idea of adjusting box scores to get rid of fluke plays.  He was successful for a couple years then got too big and the books adjusted.   Thorpe , this statement reminds me of something someone  ( on another Forum ) once posted to one of my " Theory " threads. " Every method of capping college football has already been invented " Clearly an incorrect statement as technology and analytics are in even greater use today, and successfully , I might add to profit on sports betting from BOTH sides of the counter. The very statement highlighted above is just as incorrect. Books will not be the first to know unless they are the ones who devise the method.   Thorpe

     

     

    FWIW , I talk a great deal about wagering and Capping theory because I believe it is

    the future of what we do. I'm retired from serious Sports Betting now , but I've searched

    for an accurate  ( that meets my standards for accuracy )method of determining WP for

    over 40 years . I believe that advancements in data collection and dissemination that were

    not available to me earlier in my career will now make this a reality for someone else ,

    either Books or Bettors in the near future.

    GLTA 

    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Quote Originally Posted by thorpe: Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: is your WP assessment more accurate than your Bookmakers.   GLTA   Books are the first to know when something works and will adjust.  There is no way a publicly accessible WP will ever beat the books at a good enough rate to be profitable over a significant amount of time. If you are a stat nerd and come up with something that works and don't bet big and don't share it, then that can work for a long time. Look at Dr Bob from several years back.  He came up with the idea of adjusting box scores to get rid of fluke plays.  He was successful for a couple years then got too big and the books adjusted.   Thorpe , this statement reminds me of something someone  ( on another Forum ) once posted to one of my " Theory " threads. " Every method of capping college football has already been invented " Clearly an incorrect statement as technology and analytics are in even greater use today, and successfully , I might add to profit on sports betting from BOTH sides of the counter. The very statement highlighted above is just as incorrect. Books will not be the first to know unless they are the ones who devise the method.   Thorpe

     

     

    FWIW , I talk a great deal about wagering and Capping theory because I believe it is

    the future of what we do. I'm retired from serious Sports Betting now , but I've searched

    for an accurate  ( that meets my standards for accuracy )method of determining WP for

    over 40 years . I believe that advancements in data collection and dissemination that were

    not available to me earlier in my career will now make this a reality for someone else ,

    either Books or Bettors in the near future.

    GLTA 

     
    Bridge1
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    Posted: Aug. 23, 2020 - 3:25 PM ET #168

    OK ST. NEWS - Davontavean "Big Play Tay" Martin - WR grad xfers from Wash St to OK.St.. Big 6'3'' multi year starter for the Coogs ...  Sanders really struggled finding receivers FR year outside of Wallace... Pokes also lost a big 6'6'' WR jordan mcrae he xfered in from So.Bam a few years back and was only good for 200 or so yds the last few years .. OK St already landed LSU xfer Dee Anderson at 6'6'' and have Jelani Woods 6'7'' at their TE (Cowboy) position and add Martin sounds like another big threat outside of Wallace.. sounds like a dangerous group!

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    OK ST. NEWS - Davontavean "Big Play Tay" Martin - WR grad xfers from Wash St to OK.St.. Big 6'3'' multi year starter for the Coogs ...  Sanders really struggled finding receivers FR year outside of Wallace... Pokes also lost a big 6'6'' WR jordan mcrae he xfered in from So.Bam a few years back and was only good for 200 or so yds the last few years .. OK St already landed LSU xfer Dee Anderson at 6'6'' and have Jelani Woods 6'7'' at their TE (Cowboy) position and add Martin sounds like another big threat outside of Wallace.. sounds like a dangerous group!

     
    Bridge1
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    Posted: Aug. 25, 2020 - 1:52 PM ET #169

    USF News - Noted a number of players already opting out .. maybe biggest is Eddie McDoom ret starter at WR since they are looking to struggle to get a pass game together ... quite a few others mostly from that backup to 4th string from phil's depth chart ... seems like quite a few that started camp and then opted out ... hmm maybe new coaching crew trying to go full holgersen and shoot the moon with the roster this year?..   

    SMU News - Eric Sutton #2 CB group in Phil's DC hits the opt out / portal .. Not a huge hit but they'll need to find some gold in their depth chart this year ... if they get thin in the DB's could be big trouble since already thin up front.. eek.. 

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    USF News - Noted a number of players already opting out .. maybe biggest is Eddie McDoom ret starter at WR since they are looking to struggle to get a pass game together ... quite a few others mostly from that backup to 4th string from phil's depth chart ... seems like quite a few that started camp and then opted out ... hmm maybe new coaching crew trying to go full holgersen and shoot the moon with the roster this year?..   

    SMU News - Eric Sutton #2 CB group in Phil's DC hits the opt out / portal .. Not a huge hit but they'll need to find some gold in their depth chart this year ... if they get thin in the DB's could be big trouble since already thin up front.. eek.. 

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 25, 2020 - 3:22 PM ET #170

    ESPN is reporting that UCLA  starting OT  Jake Burton has chosen to enter the Transfer Portal .

    He is hoping to play somewhere this Fall.

     

    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    ESPN is reporting that UCLA  starting OT  Jake Burton has chosen to enter the Transfer Portal .

    He is hoping to play somewhere this Fall.

     

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 25, 2020 - 3:27 PM ET #171

    BA , Is Phil Steele doing his roster changes update this year ?

    It would sure help us to sort some of this stuff out.

    BA   peace_5

    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    BA , Is Phil Steele doing his roster changes update this year ?

    It would sure help us to sort some of this stuff out.

    BA   peace_5

     
    Bridge1
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2020 - 11:16 AM ET #172

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    ESPN is reporting that UCLA  starting OT  Jake Burton has chosen to enter the Transfer Portal . He is hoping to play somewhere this Fall.

    That was quick..... Baylor 

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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    ESPN is reporting that UCLA  starting OT  Jake Burton has chosen to enter the Transfer Portal . He is hoping to play somewhere this Fall.

    That was quick..... Baylor 

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2020 - 11:39 AM ET #173

    Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: ESPN is reporting that UCLA  starting OT  Jake Burton has chosen to enter the Transfer Portal . He is hoping to play somewhere this Fall. That was quick..... Baylor

     

    Bridge   peace_5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: ESPN is reporting that UCLA  starting OT  Jake Burton has chosen to enter the Transfer Portal . He is hoping to play somewhere this Fall. That was quick..... Baylor

     

    Bridge   peace_5

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2020 - 9:33 AM ET #174

    FYI , as of Wednesday , 91 players have opted out of the 2020 College football season.

    There have also been a number of players entering the " Transfer Portal " in an attempt

    to play this season as well .

    Season is almost here. Make sure you know what the team roster you are betting on is

    made up of as well as what their production is likely to be in this " new " enviornment.

    GLTA  

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    FYI , as of Wednesday , 91 players have opted out of the 2020 College football season.

    There have also been a number of players entering the " Transfer Portal " in an attempt

    to play this season as well .

    Season is almost here. Make sure you know what the team roster you are betting on is

    made up of as well as what their production is likely to be in this " new " enviornment.

    GLTA  

     
     
    Bridge1
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2020 - 11:36 AM ET #175

    Wise you got a link with the 91 players listed?... I've been tracking them off of the rotowire fantasy news site but I don't think they have a truly complete list... 

    Also can't sleep on suspensions, injuries, transfers out / transfers in, eligibility and others that haven't reported to camp yet .. I was just reminded Oklahoma had a few notable early season suspensions stemming from bad behavior during the playoff week ... a couple notable ones from the D that might be out the first five or so games... 

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    Wise you got a link with the 91 players listed?... I've been tracking them off of the rotowire fantasy news site but I don't think they have a truly complete list... 

    Also can't sleep on suspensions, injuries, transfers out / transfers in, eligibility and others that haven't reported to camp yet .. I was just reminded Oklahoma had a few notable early season suspensions stemming from bad behavior during the playoff week ... a couple notable ones from the D that might be out the first five or so games... 

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