Bama at Arkansas.. Some Facts

no, im not worried about bama's defense.  ill take saban's scheme and gameplan all day long against mallet and petrino.  and by the way, the freshman you keep alluding to for bama are more talented and better coached than the arkansas db's. and like i said before, mallet is a great QB and i expect him to make some plays and move the ball, but not enough to keep up and trade scores all afternoon with bama.

i asked you earlier to give me one reason why you think arkansas will stop bama's offense. im still waiting on your answer. they were the worst in the league last year, and no matter how much people think they have improved, they will get steamrolled on saturday.

So I take it you will be betting Bama -7 with vig for a large % of your roll?

ive explained in several posts within this very thread why i will be on bama my friend..

Oh and FWIW I did see this line on Vegas Insider Sunday afternoon.

much simpler to stop a one deminsional offense like Arkansas, than a well balanced offense at Bama. Bama doesn't have to record double digit sacks against Mallet in order to be successful, only pressure him, get him out of the pocket, and force him into mistakes, like last year. Its much harder to be an accurate passer when throwing on the run, and believe me, he will be on the run. Everyone knows that conference play is tough, and that anyone can be beat on any given Saturday, but to base your decision on ifs and buts and maybes is rediculous. I have put my money on the better team, with the better coaching staff, and with the better athletes. Doesn't that make more sense? Good luck with your Arkansas bet, and the rest of the season.

 

ok, for the sake of your argument, lets say arkansas does have a situational advantage here.  how much is that worth? 2 points? 3 points? 4 points at most? is that enough to take me off of bama? looking at the current line...absolutely not.  my question to you is this.  Did you have you mind made up already about this game before the line came out? it sounds like you did.  if this game was a pick, would you still play arkansas based on your "situational advantage?"  did you handicap this game at all based on the current number? im just asking because you sound emotionally tied up in this game and i get the feeling you would be playing arkansas regardless of what the line is. occasionally that may work for you, but ive done this long enough to know that is quickest way lose your bankroll.

and like i said, im not bama homer whatsoever.  and im not bashing your play either.  i understand your angle i just dont think its the correct way to approach this game. bol this weekend

Again, you should be. They cant cover Arkansas. They present matchup problems at WR for their CBs.

Its an immeasurable variable.

I am not going to convince people any other way. I just pick out a few games where I think people are going to get slaughtered and I play devils advocate. You can view my space and see what I was saying about Hou/UCLA, Iowa/Zona and Cal/Nevada for the most recent examples.

Ive been highly successful, posted as well, at forums like this over the past 5 years because of the way I play. And none of it is how these teams played last week or on paper. Its all spots and situations.

I dont expect people to see it the way I do. Its best put this way - I told a friend last night about the spot the niners were in, he bets the saints and loses. Today he tells me he would make that same bet again. People just want to do whatever they want.

Bama might cover here, but betting against situations like this arent profitable in the long run. And for this season so far, for the short run either.

GL with your plays.

Absolutely, D. If you arent looking ahead, you are falling behind.

I had this game circled since the schedules came out. This is a great situation/spot for Arky to get their biggest win in the last 5 years.

Another thing, I dont give a fuck about any of these teams. I have no homerism at all. I dont think any team is invincible. But the more I read at Covers, the more I think I am an anomaly. Everyone loves to hose down their home squads like they are unbeatable. I think that any team can lose on any day.

I placed a max bet with Bama at -7 (with vig).

 

It'll come down to coaching and Saban is light years ahead,

if you cant place a value on it, then how do you incorperate it into handicapping the game based on the line given?

i always circle games that i feel might potentially have some value.  but i would never make up my mind before examining the line given.  i would be much more inclined to take arkansas had the hogs lost last week at georgia because i would be getting a much more favorable line in the hogs favor.

I saw that you posted that on the other discussion after I posted that. Wasn't really trying to call you out (athough it sounded like that). My point was more that I don't understand when people are this sure of a bet, any bet, against a spread especially in this big of a game. I also don't understand why people think that Saban in "lightyears" ahead of Petrino in coaching. Nobody is light years ahead of Petrino in coaching. There is a lot of parity in college football especially at this level and to say something as definitive as this is just thoughtless. Both teams will prepare very hard, and if you want to give the talent edge to Bama because of their RBs and OL I can agree with that but Home Field is a pretty big factor also. This game is just much closer than some people are saying.

Let's not forget on the Vegas GOY lines.. Bama was only -3.5..

The blowing out of mediocre competition might have gone to some Tide fans heads..

Just think if the Hogs lost against UGA (wish they would have)- this line would of been 10+ 

If ure trying to tell me that Petrino is in the same class as Saban than you must be a homer. Sabans got national titles, Petrino has done nothing. We still think that winning national titles is the goal right. I can see maybe winning one on talent alone but when u have two id have to say your elite. No

SatNight I tried to talk you off of Baylor last week and I will attempt to do the same this Saturday.

What has Arkansas done to prove they can hang with Alabama? Last year the Hogs were humiliated in the 2nd half and Mallett was, frankly, awful. Bama has had this game circled since February, much like they had the Ole Miss game targeted last year. You saw what happened against the Rebels; Miss couldn't do anything. Bama threw fronts at the Rebs that they had never seen before and it was a dominant defensive performance. You will the same on Saturday, except it will be the linebackers and secondaries making life hell for Arky's offense.

Bama's defense is fine when the young guys in the secondary are out there playing rather than thinking. That's why I think you'll see a very simple game plan in the back clouded by multiple blitzes by the linebackers. Bama's corners are big and their safeties are ballhawks.

I don't understand what Arkansas has done to merit a lot of hype. This is the same team that was done 3-0 to Tennessee Tech, led UL Monroe 7-0 at halftime and damn near choked away a game against UGA, who will probably finish with no more than 7 wins. And now they're ranked 10th? Give me a break. The defense hasn't even been remotely tested and Bama's offense is as strong as it has ever been.

Call me a homer if you like but +7 is not enough points for the Razorbacks to cover.

I didn't take it as you calling me out.  I just thought you were looking for clarification.

I know some other people have said Saban is light-years ahead of Petrino, but I did not say that.  I think when you look at coaching college football and everything that goes in its totality, Saban is pretty far ahead of Petrino.  But if we are just talking about game planning and gameday coaching, Petrino is pretty damn good.

This Bama team is battle hardened with a lot of big-game experience.  I honestly don't think home field advantage will mean much.

 

Why would Bama have this game circled, esp with UF on deck..

[Quote] had the hogs lost last week at georgia because i would be getting a much more favorable line in the hogs favor. [/Quote]

You are incorrect in this assumption. GOY lines on Bama were -3.5.

A win or loss last week wasnt going to affect this line.

Handicapping is not an exact science. Its dynamic.

I incorporate it the same way you try to incorporate any other variable. Nothing is completely quantifiable in gambling.

1st sec game, division opponent, heisman trophy candidate, and that undeserving #10 in front of Arkansas might have something to do with it

A little bit of objectivity

I thought this was a weird post as well.

The National Champions circling a game against a team they walked by last year without a problem?

Man, that doesnt seem right.