2H College Football Betting System

NJ, It has been a while since I posted here but I has had me thinking all day trying to figure out both sides of a bet.  In your Wisconsin-Michigan example, what if you had Michigan +4.5?  I am trying to figure out how you would bet in a the reverse situation from the way you had it.  It seemed most of the picks you had were the favorite.  Any insight would be appreciated.

NJ, It has been a while since I posted here but I has had me thinking all day trying to figure out both sides of a bet.  In your Wisconsin-Michigan example, what if you had Michigan +4.5?  I am trying to figure out how you would bet in a the reverse situation from the way you had it.  It seemed most of the picks you had were the favorite.  Any insight would be appreciated.

there actually was a play here and it was 2nd half under!

Tell me the middle for this example. I can only figure out the simple ones, when the favorite is winning the 1st half.

Pittsburgh -5, the line I recieved.

Score at halftime was 13-3, Baltimore.

Halftime line was Pittsburgh -4.5

What is the middle?

The middle is 9 (Baltimore losing by 4 or winning by 5) thus making it a no play by this theory.

No play for today here.  Total for game was 56.5 for sake of argument.  Score at half was 21-3 total of 24 points.  2H was 24.5.  The middle was 7 points (Total of between 49 and 56).

NJPorky....Isn't it true that in this case the middle is actually 9 points and not 10 since the they can't win or lose by 0 points which is in the middle (Nebraska losing by 3 or less + winning by 6 or less = 9 point middle). Just wondering.

So, if someone took Baltimore in the 1st half, and took Pittsburgh in the 2nd, they were able to win the middle (won Baltimore 1H & Pitt 2H)?

Still struggling with this...I feel like a third grader and I have a freakin Master's degree.  I understand the Baltimore winning by 5 but can't comprehend the losing by 4. Where does that come from?

Baltimore losing by 4 comes from the original line of Pittsburgh -5 (If Baltimore loses by 4 or less then you win, if they lose by 5 or more then you either push or lose)  Now at half time, up by 10, you win the half time bet if Baltimore wins by at least 5 (10 - 4.5).  So the middle ground is from losing by 4 to winning by 5 or 9 total points. 

If Baltimore lose the game by 4, then they still win the spread for the game, which was Balt +5. Basically, Pittsburgh came back to win the game by 4. Which mean they outscored Balt by 14pt in the 2H, to win the game, but lose the spread for the game. Halftime score was 13-3, new score might be 27-31 or 13-17 Pitts. Balt still lost by 4, but covered for the game. And Pitts won 2H, by scoring 5pt more than Balt.

So, if the halftime score was Baltimore 13-3, then Pittsburgh can score anywhere from 5-14pt(10pt) more in the 2H, and Baltimore would still win the spread for the game, and Pittsburgh wins the 2nd half, in which, a middle was successful.

If Pitt score 4 or less in 2H than Balt, than Baltimore wins spread for the game(+5) & 2nd half (+4.5). No successful middle.

Here's an example:

Pitts -5, 2H Pitts -4.5

The number in parenthesis is how much more Pitt score than Balt. Let's just assume Balt was shutout in 2H.

13-3(+0) - Pitt loses 2H, loses game
13-4(+1) - not possible
13-5(+2) - Pitt loses 2H, loses game
13-6(+3) - Pitt loses 2H, loses game
13-7(+4) - Pitt loses 2H, loses game
13-8(+5) - Pitt wins 2H, loses game*-1
13-9(+6) - Pitt wins 2H, loses game-2
13-10(+7) - Pitt wins 2H, loses game-3
13-11(+8) - Pitt wins 2H, loses game-4
13-12(+9) - Pitt wins 2H, loses game-5
13-13(+10) Pitts - Pitt wins 2H, loses game-6
13-14(+11) Pitts - Pitt wins 2H, loses game-7
13-15(+12) Pitts - Pitt wins 2H, loses game-8
13-16(+13) Pitts - Pitt wins 2H, loses game-9
13-17(+14) Pitts - Pitt wins 2H, loses game*-10
13-18(+15) Pitts - Pitt wins 2H, pushes game
13-19(+16 or more) Pitts - Pitt wins 2H, wins game

So you see, Pitt can score anywhere from 5-14 more than Balt in the 2H, and still win the 2H line and lose the game, therefore accomplishing the middle.

So if you have Baltimore for the game, than you would take Pittsburgh for the 2H, to get a middle. But the books do not want such a thing to happen, so you have to do the opposite, and take Baltimore(+4.5) 2H, to stay within 4pt of Pittsburgh(-4.5) in the 2H.

In this example, Pittsburgh did win the 2H, and lost the game, in which, a middle was accomplished. So if you took Baltimore, like I did, you would have won Baltimore for the game, and lose Baltimore for the 2H, opposite of what NJPorky's theory.

I had to create a spreadsheet to understand where some of the numbers were coming from. It helped out alot.

NJPorky, thanks for the tip, I will be using this as part of my tools for single games.

definitely like the theory and I will be monitoring it in the coming weeks
but im thinking I like it when a favorite has already beat the spread
like in the BYU example where they were up 42-0 and went on to win
the 2H 10-0.   Id be real hesitant to use it when the dog is winning though, I believe Ive seen it happen too many times where the favorite comes back to cover for the 2H but not for the game.

Then again I havent seen if there has been a 10 point difference involved.  Good work on the theory  though and I hope it will help win some dough.

+3 to -6 is a 10 point swing.  Yes, you can't win by 0, but from -1 to +1 is 2 points, not 1.

If you're like me , it might help to count it on your fingers... +3, +2, +1, 0, -1, -2, -3, -4, -5, -6... that's 10 points.

I'm going to have to make sure I'm not wearing socks on Saturday... might have to start using my toes, too. 

(Also, you could just look at it at say 6 points on one side, 3 points on the other, so that's 9 points, plus 1 point for the swing from + to -.) 

Thanks Warblade!

I do understand now but don't think I want to spend that much time on each game....

I'll just miss those opportunities

wish i can do the math and stuff faster lol

 

Like I said the one downfall I have found is the system takes alot of time to constantly check lines and scores and do the math to find the plays. But if it hit's at the 75%, will be Very Very Profittable! Nothing in life that is worth while is easy......