2H College Football Betting System

It sounds nice but I still dont get how you get the MIDDLE
I understand that you subtract the spread for the game from the total points at the half I get lost after that

Can you write it as an equation Porky you gotta show me how to do this it sounds very Interesting sounds like you have something

Ortiz11

 

Let me try and explain it as simple as I can:

 

Toight in the Pitt/ S Florida game:

 

NJPorky, vegasinsider posts 2nd half lines.  Also I think Wednesday's MTSU game should have had a play on the side.  They were -2.5 for the game and -2 for the 2nd half.  This would leave a 10 point middle.

Guys, let me try to simplify this and Porky can correct me if I am wrong.  Basically this system is based on the psychology of your typical greedy degenerate gambler.  It assumes that the gambler on the "winning" side of a game spread or total AT HALFTIME, given a large enough middle, will not be satisfied with just winning the game wager.  It is the classic "counting your chickens" scenario.  The greedy gambler has a chance to middle and win two wagers.  They figure the worst that can happen is they lose the 2nd half wager and end the day down the juice since the full game wager is basically in their pocket already.  The linesmakers prey on this mentality and therefore set the 2nd half line at a point where the gambler thinks he has a good chance to win both bets.  Vegas is not in the business of giving away money, so we want to take a smarter approach than the degenerate.  Using tonight's game as  an example, the first step should be to always put yourself in the shoes of the gambler who is "sitting pretty" at halftime.  In this case put yourself in the shoes of the guy who bet $110 to win $100 on Pitt +13.5 for the game (if you bet USF -13.5, don't worry, it is irrelevant).  When the guy that bet Pitt +13.5 sees the 2nd half number as USF -7 he starts doing the math in his head.  He sees that if he bets USF -7 in the 2nd half, they can outscore Pitt by 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, or 23 and he can win the 2nd half bet on USF -7 AND still win his game bet on Pitt +13.5 for a profit of $200.  VEGAS DOESN'T WANT THIS TO HAPPEN !!  Therefore, we are not going to fall into their trap like he is.  We will take Pitt +7 in the 2nd half and walk with $100 while the degenerate will win his game bet but lose the 2nd half bet and end up down $10, falling into the same Vegas trap game after game.  Sorry that was so long.

jtyke

 

EXACTLY! Majority of time the game dosen't fall in that middle....

yes....according to your lines, yes a play on FAU +2 and a loss.  But others may have had MT -3 for the game and MT-3 2H giving them a 10 point middle also.....I guess it just comes down to the lines you get....I personally use the game lines posted on covers.com  next to the scores, most games I don't even know the lines for the game until I look at halftime. I usually just go to covers.com and click on NCAA under the scoreboard link and they have a game line and total right next to the score thus making it easy to use for this system. And then I just get my 2H line from my guy.

thanks porky for the explanation and also for the call last night on the pitt +7.   i just have one question on this example

 

any play for the byu half????

 

who has the cincy pick??

play on the under is correct. my halftime total opened at 24 (-115). currently it is 24 (-125) which means there is action on the over.

 

i like the under!

I don't think that is right... you would play the under because the concept is that most of the time you won't land in the middle.  I think this is right.  I'm going under.  I have under 59.5 for the game.

the byu game can still go over the total for the game, therefore, no middle....that would not be good if you bet under for the game and under at half.