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2019 Bowl Under Systerm :)

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Posted: #201

Quote Originally Posted by Roggs05:

Updated system Record... Yes different than Korean because of vig etc12 - 4-1.8 unitsKorean if I may ask are you putting these plays in the day of?  Wwhen you see me post?  Seeing a lot of vig like -120 or higher.  Again this is all convo do not take that the wrong way.  What did you get today as lines? Most of these totals if you lock in the day before are dropping the day of kick.  Something to note.  I.e. my post on duke and temple days ago and now wisky at 21.5 in some spots. Lets get em again today!

Sometimes I am able to get your odds sometimes I am not. I have other obligations that keep me from placing at the most advantageous times. Also, I utilize 4 books whereas you have stated that you use 8. Most people likely use 1 if not 2. I show the prices and books because I think it'd be helpful for people to see the details. 

It would be great if you were able to show the books you get your lines which has been asked of you before. Of course, no obligation just a suggestion.

 
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Posted: #202

Quote Originally Posted by Roggs05:

Quote Originally Posted by thekoreanmang:

Thanks, Roggs05. This system is great. I've followed the past two years so have experienced the great and not so great. This system takes the emotion out of the betting and has a simple premise that anyone can follow. One thing I'd like to say is that when I bet the 2u on the 2H I make sure to bet enough to cover the juice from the last bet. So for example, I bet $31.5 to win $30 on the 1H of the Tulane game. For 2H, I bet to win $61.5 which covers the $31.5 I lost and the $30 I aimed to win originally. Just wanted to dumb it down a little for more people I suppose.
Long time no talk my man... Im nominating you as moderator for the ppl that lose their minds lol... Happy holidays

While we're trying to be straight with each other, I'd like to point out that I clearly explained my approach to covering the juice from 1H losses on the 2H bets. It didn't seem like that elicited a response on that point from you until this system starting to experience the 3rd and 4th losses.

It's just weird that you aim to win 1u on the 1H bet but if it loses you only aim to win something less than 1u. If the idea is that more often than not the 2H will win after a 1H loss then why not bet to cover the vig? Just doesn't make sense. 

I only bring it up because it seems that you want to show that there are less units lost for some reason. If it's just a system and you have no incentive in how it does other than your own P&L than why even question when I place my bets or what juice I get? 

I imagine it has something to do with boosting your profile as an online capper which is fine but at least just say so.

 
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Posted: #203

Quote Originally Posted by thekoreanmang:

I would wait until Roggs05 confirms but I just took 1H U25.5 (-105 5Dimes) for the Gasparilla Bowl tonight. My other books all had the 1H total at 24.5 but the way the overs/unders were priced (over was more expensive and under was less expensive and in some cases priced as a plus money bet) made it seem like the total was going to go up. It seemed like 25.5 would be the best I'd get and IDK if it'd go up to 27 which is a key number. Again, I'd look to see what Roggs05 confirms.

Here's an example of where I got an early line at U25.5. Roggs, you decided to wait until it got to 27 but ended up at U24.5 instead. I get the approach but I decided to just take 25.5. I only say this because people will bet at different times and may end up getting different prices and lines altogether and in some cases better prices and lines than even you, Roggs.

I don't mean any of this in negative fashion although I know much banter on Covers can get misconstrued as such. I think it's important to be transparent and share thoughts. This is a forum after all and we're all after one thing. I'm not here to bash or to bring down. I started keeping a record for myself personally to keep track of whether this was as profitable as I assumed and just decided to share with everyone else.

As you have stated before everyone will get different vig and lines altogether. Therefore, no reason to ask if anyone bets at the same time as you in order to get identical lines unless you're just worried about how your system's performance is viewed. Too many variables from allowing it to happen.

 
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Posted: #204

Quote Originally Posted by Roggs05:

Updated system Record... Yes different than Korean because of vig etc12 - 4-1.8 unitsKorean if I may ask are you putting these plays in the day of?  Wwhen you see me post?  Seeing a lot of vig like -120 or higher.  Again this is all convo do not take that the wrong way.  What did you get today as lines? Most of these totals if you lock in the day before are dropping the day of kick.  Something to note.  I.e. my post on duke and temple days ago and now wisky at 21.5 in some spots. Lets get em again today!

Sorry, I just reread your query to me. I didn't mean to take the wrong way which I obviously did. My bad. Anyway, let's just try to win. I'm on the same train as you.

 
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Posted: #205
Quote Originally Posted by thekoreanmang:

Long time no talk my man... Im nominating you as moderator for the ppl that lose their minds lol... Happy holidays

While we're trying to be straight with each other, I'd like to point out that I clearly explained my approach to covering the juice from 1H losses on the 2H bets. It didn't seem like that elicited a response on that point from you until this system starting to experience the 3rd and 4th losses.

It's just weird that you aim to win 1u on the 1H bet but if it loses you only aim to win something less than 1u. If the idea is that more often than not the 2H will win after a 1H loss then why not bet to cover the vig? Just doesn't make sense. 

I only bring it up because it seems that you want to show that there are less units lost for some reason. If it's just a system and you have no incentive in how it does other than your own P&L than why even question when I place my bets or what juice I get? 

I imagine it has something to do with boosting your profile as an online capper which is fine but at least just say so.


Has nothing to do with that... Online profile isnt even public and will keep it that way
 
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Posted: #206
Quote Originally Posted by thekoreanmang:

Here's an example of where I got an early line at U25.5. Roggs, you decided to wait until it got to 27 but ended up at U24.5 instead. I get the approach but I decided to just take 25.5. I only say this because people will bet at different times and may end up getting different prices and lines altogether and in some cases better prices and lines than even you, Roggs.

I don't mean any of this in negative fashion although I know much banter on Covers can get misconstrued as such. I think it's important to be transparent and share thoughts. This is a forum after all and we're all after one thing. I'm not here to bash or to bring down. I started keeping a record for myself personally to keep track of whether this was as profitable as I assumed and just decided to share with everyone else.

As you have stated before everyone will get different vig and lines altogether. Therefore, no reason to ask if anyone bets at the same time as you in order to get identical lines unless you're just worried about how your system's performance is viewed. Too many variables from allowing it to happen.


No prob at all... May i suggest (again do not want to promote other sites) looking at some sites that on a single screen you can see like 15 books... Those are the sites i use to try and look at which way the potential movement will go and if theres value in waiting or not..
 
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Posted: #207
Under 30.5 2xs duke temple
 
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Posted: #208

Yikes.

12/22/18 Thu

1:30pm Temple vs Duke (Independence Bowl)

1H U27.5 (-125 BookMaker): 48 pts scored / Lost -1.25u

2H U30.5 (-110 BetDSI): 35 pts scored / Lost -2.48u

Total: -3.73u

 
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Posted: #209

2018 CFB 1H Under Chase System Results

1H: 6-11 (-6.52u)

2H: 6-5 (-2.3u)

Combined 1H + 2H Results: 10-16 (-10.69u)

System Only Results: 11-5 (-10.69u)

 
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Posted: #210

12/27/18 Thu

1:30pm Temple vs Duke (Independence Bowl)

1H U27.5 (-125 BookMaker): 48 pts scored / Lost -1.25u

2H U30.5 (-110 BetDSI): 35 pts scored / Lost -2.48u

Total: -3.73u

Got the date wrong. Whoops.

 
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Posted: #211

Tough year so far. 5 Losses. Need a solid rest of the bowl season to make a profit at this point. 22 games to go or so. At the rate these losses are coming, I would say there are 4 - 5 more mixed in those 22. Love this system but cant keep backtracking.

 
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Posted: #212

Quote Originally Posted by BigMoney777:

Quote Originally Posted by thekoreanmang:

2018 CFB 1H Under Chase System Results 1H: 6-11 (-6.52u) 2H: 6-5 (-2.3u) Combined 1H + 2H Results: 10-16 (-10.69u) System Only Results: 11-5 (-10.69u)
  Holy crap!  Down over 10 units already?   Hopefully everyone bailed on this garbage system a long time ago.  What a joke.
If it was winning? Why not fade then? Or show others how its done and post some plays big mouth? Show all how good you are.

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #213
Tomorrow all locked
Purdue auburn under 28 -115 1xs
Wvu cuse under 34
Iowa st wazzu under 28.5
 
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Posted: #214

5:15pm Miami vs Wisconsin (Pinstripe Bowl)

1H U23.5 (-131 BookMaker): 17 pts scored / Won +1u

Total: +1u

 
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Posted: #215

Quote Originally Posted by MoJoe87:

Tough year so far. 5 Losses. Need a solid rest of the bowl season to make a profit at this point. 22 games to go or so. At the rate these losses are coming, I would say there are 4 - 5 more mixed in those 22. Love this system but cant keep backtracking.

Part of me wonders if the increased emphasis on scoring and making the overall NCAAF product more appealing to the casual viewer makes these games so high scoring. It's certainly happened in the NFL and NBA (with offense-friendly rule changes I know). I wonder if NCAAF powers that be instruct the officials in a certain way to make the games higher scoring (e.g., more pass interference calls, roughing the passers, etc.)

 
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Posted: #216
Under 30.5 baylor 2xs
 
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Posted: #217
Quote Originally Posted by BigMoney777:

an_burningbagan_burn_moneyan_burningbag

How many units are we down now you dildo Roggs?  

Close to 13 right?


-8.45 to be exact... Thanks for the kind words man!  
 
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Posted: #218
So why not play the over, over instead of under under

Pts gallore this year
 
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Posted: #219
Quote Originally Posted by FeltonsFollies:

So why not play the over, over instead of under under

Pts gallore this year

Exactly the point - that this is not a "system".  Last year it won b/c more UNDERS hit.  This year it's losing b/c more OVERS hit.

U can just bet under for game or over for game - and the "system" will basically have the same results.

 
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Posted: #220
12 games of winners
6 games of losers

Each winner is between 0.9 and 1.0 units (depending on strategy/juice)

Each loser is between 3.3 and 4.0 units (depending on strategy/juice)

So, that's it.  That's where the difference in units.

But, THANK YOU Rogg/Korean for keeping thru with it.

But, IMO this is not a "system" - it basically says UNDERs hit at a higher rate in BOWLs.
- maybe true (long layoff hurts offense, travel, party all week, playing "under TV lights")
- maybe false (rules help offense, want to put on a "show" for fans)

Probably it's EVEN (unders/overs) b/c VEGAS incorporates all this.

Better to find "angles" X/O matchups then a BLIND bet unders or BLIND bet OVERS.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!
 
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Posted: #221

Quote Originally Posted by BigMoney777:

Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

Quote Originally Posted by BigMoney777:

Quote Originally Posted by thekoreanmang:

2018 CFB 1H Under Chase System Results 1H: 6-11 (-6.52u) 2H: 6-5 (-2.3u) Combined 1H + 2H Results: 10-16 (-10.69u) System Only Results: 11-5 (-10.69u)
  Holy crap!  Down over 10 units already?   Hopefully everyone bailed on this garbage system a long time ago.  What a joke.
If it was winning? Why not fade then? Or show others how its done and post some plays big mouth? Show all how good you are.
I have been fading it.  My 2019 Over Bowl System is 16-3 now and up 5.7 units.  It's a great system...bet the 1st half over for 1 unit and if it loses bet the 2nd half over for 2 units.
Sure you have

I looked and missed all of your post of the plays prior to the games

 

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #222

9pm Baylor vs Vanderbilt (Texas Bowl)

1H U28 (-110 BetDSI): 38 pts scored / Lost -1.1u

2H U30.5 (-115 BetOnline): 45 pts scored / Lost -2.37u

Total: -3.47u

 
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Posted: #223

2018 CFB 1H Under Chase System Results

1H: 7-12 (-6.62u)

2H: 6-6 (-4.67u)

Combined 1H + 2H Results: 11-18 (-13.16u)

System Only Results: 12-6 (-13.16u)

 
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Posted: #224

I bought off the remaining bowl games. There's not enough bowl games to compensate for losses. I'm also not confident that the rest of the games will bear profit without sustaining another loss. I was actually having a successful few months before I added this 1H Under system to my list of follows (e.g., LeagueCapper, ragingstorm, amongst others). I'm not sure if I'll keep updating but maybe I'll try to at least get through today for records' sake.

 

Given Roggs05's lack of 2H update for the Music City Bowl, I'm assuming he is done with this system as well.

 
 
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Posted: #225

FWIW, I saw 2H U24 (-117 BetDSI/BookMaker) for Music City Bowl. I actually bet the over this time. 

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