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🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets

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Posted: #2076

@fubah2

 

 Hey man, with the juice levels you are playing, what kind of units you looking at to go with that W/L record. Not trying to troll, serious question.

I have dipped into the juicy in the past, but your win rate def has to be very high to succeed over the course of a season, no?

 
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Posted: #2077

Quote Originally Posted by nolemonasses:

@fubah2    Hey man, with the juice levels you are playing, what kind of units you looking at to go with that W/L record. Not trying to troll, serious question. I have dipped into the juicy in the past, but your win rate def has to be very high to succeed over the course of a season, no?

DOWN $$$ from juice, so far...

Really got beat up with bets on Seminoles - expecting they were a good team this year after their 13 -0 conf last year.

Apparently not and got the books and lot of others by surprise.

Then Notre Dame had a "one-off" bad performance ON HOME FIELD vs mediocre N.Illinois....also not anticipated by the books and many more bettors.

Oh well.....shithappens sometimes when we least expect it.

Now I might be facing the same thing with HURRICANES as a -17.5 home fav....down by 7 approaching HT

 

Got to achieve a high win rate relative to the size of the risk, yes...

 
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Posted: #2078

Cool, thanks man. I appreciate the perspective and info

 

I do like live betting and have done pretty well, but it’s more for fun and low dollars, albeit not my main thing 

Appreciate your live commentary on your selections.

 
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Posted: #2079

@pjlvio

 Hokies not Homies damn autocorrect 

 
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Posted: #2080

Quote Originally Posted by pjlvio:

Miami needs to settle down and stop letting Virginia Tech lucky breaks. They definitely are out playing the Homies, but making to many mistakes. The Homies are not that good.

@pjlvio

 Agreed.  I expect Hurricanes win the 2h and still like their chances SU, though willing to concede another effing  "visitor one-off" may be in the works.....grrrrr angry

Entering tonight my personal rankings placed Hokies at #63 - very close to dead middle of FBS, ie. maybe a sliver better than mediocre, while I had Miami 11th.

HUGE difference, particularly for a home fav.  

Mind you, those stands look to be only 65% full an_lightening

 
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Posted: #2081

an_light I am looking for hedge bets now ....as this now really is looking like I am about to get caught in another HEAVY HOME FAV laying an egg...best I can do now is bet on VT and get back some of my lost money...

 

Now losing at home by 10 pts...as -17.5 fav! an_getaway  Miami  has an explosive O, sure, but so far they have shown little sign of being able to stop VT!

 

Best time to do this will be when Miami has the ball and hopefully moving.....finger on the trigger....

 
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Posted: #2082

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

I am looking for hedge bets now ....as this now really is looking like I am about to get caught in another HEAVY HOME FAV laying an egg...best I can do now is bet on VT and get back some of my lost money...   Now losing at home by 10 pts...as -17.5 fav!   Miami  has an explosive O, sure, but so far they have shown little sign of being able to stop VT!   Best time to do this will be when Miami has the ball and hopefully moving.....finger on the trigger....
Mid 3Q...after another turnover going to VT....

LIVE HEDGE BET:  VT -140

 
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Posted: #2083

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I am looking for hedge bets now ....as this now really is looking like I am about to get caught in another HEAVY HOME FAV laying an egg...best I can do now is bet on VT and get back some of my lost money...   Now losing at home by 10 pts...as -17.5 fav!   Miami  has an explosive O, sure, but so far they have shown little sign of being able to stop VT!   Best time to do this will be when Miami has the ball and hopefully moving.....finger on the trigger....Mid 3Q...after another turnover going to VT.... LIVE HEDGE BET:  VT -140

VT in scoring position for a big lead!!!!

 
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Posted: #2084

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I am looking for hedge bets now ....as this now really is looking like I am about to get caught in another HEAVY HOME FAV laying an egg...best I can do now is bet on VT and get back some of my lost money...   Now losing at home by 10 pts...as -17.5 fav!   Miami  has an explosive O, sure, but so far they have shown little sign of being able to stop VT!   Best time to do this will be when Miami has the ball and hopefully moving.....finger on the trigger....Mid 3Q...after another turnover going to VT.... LIVE HEDGE BET:  VT -140 VT in scoring position for a big lead!!!!

Whoa!  Miami got LUCKY when VT made the stupid mistake of a fake FG rather than taking the 3 pts...However the breaks don't wash as Miami is left down at their own 12 and a very long way to go, still down 2 scores....

 
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Posted: #2085

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I am looking for hedge bets now ....as this now really is looking like I am about to get caught in another HEAVY HOME FAV laying an egg...best I can do now is bet on VT and get back some of my lost money...   Now losing at home by 10 pts...as -17.5 fav!   Miami  has an explosive O, sure, but so far they have shown little sign of being able to stop VT!   Best time to do this will be when Miami has the ball and hopefully moving.....finger on the trigger....Mid 3Q...after another turnover going to VT.... LIVE HEDGE BET:  VT -140 VT in scoring position for a big lead!!!! Whoa!  Miami got LUCKY when VT made the stupid mistake of a fake FG rather than taking the 3 pts...However the breaks don't wash as Miami is left down at their own 12 and a very long way to go, still down 2 scores....

My thinking making that HEDGE BET includes still having the option, if the tide turns back in Miami's favor later, to re-bet the CANES because while down in score (or tied late) the ml on CANES will be quite low!

 
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Posted: #2086

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I am looking for hedge bets now ....as this now really is looking like I am about to get caught in another HEAVY HOME FAV laying an egg...best I can do now is bet on VT and get back some of my lost money...   Now losing at home by 10 pts...as -17.5 fav!   Miami  has an explosive O, sure, but so far they have shown little sign of being able to stop VT!   Best time to do this will be when Miami has the ball and hopefully moving.....finger on the trigger....Mid 3Q...after another turnover going to VT.... LIVE HEDGE BET:  VT -140 VT in scoring position for a big lead!!!! Whoa!  Miami got LUCKY when VT made the stupid mistake of a fake FG rather than taking the 3 pts...However the breaks don't wash as Miami is left down at their own 12 and a very long way to go, still down 2 scores.... My thinking making that HEDGE BET includes still having the option, if the tide turns back in Miami's favor later, to re-bet the CANES because while down in score (or tied late) the ml on CANES will be quite low!

 

TOUCHDOWN!

24 - 27 and momentum back for Miami....ml on Canes is now -190....If VT drives some it will drop more...

 

 

Update:

now drops to -165 Canes  or -3.5 spread

 
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Posted: #2087

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I am looking for hedge bets now ....as this now really is looking like I am about to get caught in another HEAVY HOME FAV laying an egg...best I can do now is bet on VT and get back some of my lost money...   Now losing at home by 10 pts...as -17.5 fav!   Miami  has an explosive O, sure, but so far they have shown little sign of being able to stop VT!   Best time to do this will be when Miami has the ball and hopefully moving.....finger on the trigger....Mid 3Q...after another turnover going to VT.... LIVE HEDGE BET:  VT -140 VT in scoring position for a big lead!!!! Whoa!  Miami got LUCKY when VT made the stupid mistake of a fake FG rather than taking the 3 pts...However the breaks don't wash as Miami is left down at their own 12 and a very long way to go, still down 2 scores.... My thinking making that HEDGE BET includes still having the option, if the tide turns back in Miami's favor later, to re-bet the CANES because while down in score (or tied late) the ml on CANES will be quite low!   TOUCHDOWN! 24 - 27 and momentum back for Miami....ml on Canes is now -190....If VT drives some it will drop more...     Update: now drops to -165 Canes  or -3.5 spread

 

4Q intermission and VT got the PI to keep the drive going...

ML on CANES has now dropped to -145  (down only 3 now)

 

CANES had got REAL LUCKY dodging a bullet on TD run, with a phantom holding call!

THE BREAKS in this game are now EVEN!

 
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Posted: #2088

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I am looking for hedge bets now ....as this now really is looking like I am about to get caught in another HEAVY HOME FAV laying an egg...best I can do now is bet on VT and get back some of my lost money...   Now losing at home by 10 pts...as -17.5 fav!   Miami  has an explosive O, sure, but so far they have shown little sign of being able to stop VT!   Best time to do this will be when Miami has the ball and hopefully moving.....finger on the trigger....Mid 3Q...after another turnover going to VT.... LIVE HEDGE BET:  VT -140 VT in scoring position for a big lead!!!! Whoa!  Miami got LUCKY when VT made the stupid mistake of a fake FG rather than taking the 3 pts...However the breaks don't wash as Miami is left down at their own 12 and a very long way to go, still down 2 scores.... My thinking making that HEDGE BET includes still having the option, if the tide turns back in Miami's favor later, to re-bet the CANES because while down in score (or tied late) the ml on CANES will be quite low!   TOUCHDOWN! 24 - 27 and momentum back for Miami....ml on Canes is now -190....If VT drives some it will drop more...     Update: now drops to -165 Canes  or -3.5 spread 4Q intermission and VT got the PI to keep the drive going... ML on CANES has now dropped to -145  (down only 3 now)

 

VT driving deep into the RZ.... second and 8 just into 4Q....

And NOW VT is the -140 fav...

 

If they score a TD here on this drive after the timeout, Miami loses.

 
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Posted: #2089

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I am looking for hedge bets now ....as this now really is looking like I am about to get caught in another HEAVY HOME FAV laying an egg...best I can do now is bet on VT and get back some of my lost money...   Now losing at home by 10 pts...as -17.5 fav!   Miami  has an explosive O, sure, but so far they have shown little sign of being able to stop VT!   Best time to do this will be when Miami has the ball and hopefully moving.....finger on the trigger....Mid 3Q...after another turnover going to VT.... LIVE HEDGE BET:  VT -140 VT in scoring position for a big lead!!!! Whoa!  Miami got LUCKY when VT made the stupid mistake of a fake FG rather than taking the 3 pts...However the breaks don't wash as Miami is left down at their own 12 and a very long way to go, still down 2 scores.... My thinking making that HEDGE BET includes still having the option, if the tide turns back in Miami's favor later, to re-bet the CANES because while down in score (or tied late) the ml on CANES will be quite low!   TOUCHDOWN! 24 - 27 and momentum back for Miami....ml on Canes is now -190....If VT drives some it will drop more...     Update: now drops to -165 Canes  or -3.5 spread 4Q intermission and VT got the PI to keep the drive going... ML on CANES has now dropped to -145  (down only 3 now)   VT driving deep into the RZ.... second and 8 just into 4Q.... And NOW VT is the -140 fav...  

If they score a TD here on this drive after the timeout, Miami loses.

And VT escapes a sure sack to force a FGA, and BANG!

Another 10 pt lead and it is clear to me this is the dreaded "one-off" I feared.

HUGE 3 score favs getting upset on homefield to a weaker opp.

 

 
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Posted: #2090

Now Hokies are -290 road favs against the previous -17.5 home fav,

Miami ranked in most places in the top 10

 
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Posted: #2091

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Now Hokies are -290 road favs against the previous -17.5 home fav, Miami ranked in most places in the top 10

 

Canes will get this drive and at least one more but likely 2 more.

VT will get 2 possessions also.

CANES have to score  on 2 and stop VT from scoring - which is the real challenge, because so far they haven't been able to...

 
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Posted: #2092

cam mccormick   9TH YEAR SENIOR... wtf...   an_roll_laugh  i got out a high school in 6 ...   lie

goldfinger 1964
 
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Posted: #2093

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I am looking for hedge bets now ....as this now really is looking like I am about to get caught in another HEAVY HOME FAV laying an egg...best I can do now is bet on VT and get back some of my lost money...   Now losing at home by 10 pts...as -17.5 fav!   Miami  has an explosive O, sure, but so far they have shown little sign of being able to stop VT!   Best time to do this will be when Miami has the ball and hopefully moving.....finger on the trigger....Mid 3Q...after another turnover going to VT.... LIVE HEDGE BET:  VT -140
Mid 4Q and Canes now only down 3... Canes now favs again -130

 

 
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Posted: #2094

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I am looking for hedge bets now ....as this now really is looking like I am about to get caught in another HEAVY HOME FAV laying an egg...best I can do now is bet on VT and get back some of my lost money...   Now losing at home by 10 pts...as -17.5 fav!   Miami  has an explosive O, sure, but so far they have shown little sign of being able to stop VT!   Best time to do this will be when Miami has the ball and hopefully moving.....finger on the trigger....Mid 3Q...after another turnover going to VT.... LIVE HEDGE BET:  VT -140Mid 4Q and Canes now only down 3... Canes now favs again -130
CANES driving deep at least in FGA range!

 

4Q LIVE BET: CANES -490

LUCKY escape down to first and goal and I will take my chances they score 7 and hold off VT...with the momentum clearly in CANES favor now...

 
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Posted: #2095

Meanwhile, RUCKERS is whacking Washington! surprised

 
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Posted: #2096

Quote Originally Posted by vc1028:

Fubah great job  -fubah I can get -7.5 at -134 MF would you take it at -7.5

Good thing we backed off that!  an_cheers

 
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Posted: #2097

Took Miami -7.5 for 2nd half Doubled my original bet. Just need Miami to stop them.

 
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Posted: #2098

[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]

WEEK 5

     an_nailbiter   pending...  an_nailbiter

 

Hurricanes -6.5 -430 (alt-line Bet365)

     LIVE HEDGE BET: VT -140

4Q LIVE BET: CANES -490

 

No matter what happens in the final seconds of this one, VT is moving way up in my rankings! an_clap

 
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Posted: #2099

Quote Originally Posted by pjlvio:

Took Miami -7.5 for 2nd half Doubled my original bet. Just need Miami to stop them.

peace   clover    clover

 
 
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Posted: #2100

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

WEEK 5         pending...    Hurricanes -6.5 -430 (alt-line Bet365)      LIVE HEDGE BET: VT -140 4Q LIVE BET: CANES -490   No matter what happens in the final seconds of this one, VT is moving way up in my rankings!

 

OMG!  Controversial instant replay still underway

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