🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets

 Interesting comparison, JJ. 

My preseason ratings suggest:

BIG 12 (16 teams) with 5 top teams and just one below avg (Okl.St)....in total 12 teams above mean avg rating.

ACC (17 teams) with 5 top teams and 2.5 below avg (Wake and Stanford; borderline Syracuse)....8 teams above mean avg rating.

However, I have CLEMSON rated a FBS title contender at G+ (highest tier and 3rd RANKED team behind PSU and Tex) which tops any team in the BIG 12 

 Of course my preseason assessments could be off and then too INJURIES could play a BIG part as the season progresses...

BoL to you this weekend!  

  True freshman Bryce Underwood has been named Michigan's starting quarterback, coach Sherrone Moore said Monday.

Moore said sophomore Jadyn Davis, who appeared in one game last season, had a strong camp and will serve as the backup to Underwood

Underwood, from nearby Belleville, Michigan, was ESPN's No. 1 overall recruit in this year's signing class, flipping his commitment from LSU last November.  

**I am anticipating a large improvement for WOLVERINES this season

(barring key injuries of course!)

What are you actual plays for this week? You post is confusing. 

Duke… could I get your take on 2 games… in no hurry and if you have addressed I apologize… Notre dame n Miami… my take is Notre dame now knows what it takes to get there.. like their coach.. lots returning.. dominant line according to a radio broadcast.   Even though it’s a tough start… they will rise to the occasion.. I think Notre dame knows they don’t get many breaks being independent… and they will,play well…. And.  Texas n Ohio st… just based off the last years winner… everyone patting you on the back.. you just tend to let down a bit whether you realize it or not… Texas the opposite… and folks worried about manning… if there has ever been a family that can pass on good quarterbacking advice… it’s the mannings… I’d think he’ll play very well.   He has rehearsed every situation with his uncles that could be thought of…. Again… no hurry… and I have not delved into the stats….  I think I’m playing both regardless… but respect your take and if you have time… I’d appreciate… thank you sir. 

@KTriple

 Oooops...sorry about any confusion 

As it stands Tuesday night, I DO NOT have any bets posted.  Usually I avoid betting until October - then it's good to go!  I believe I will make an exception this year as there are a few teams I am contemplating I might post a bet before gametime for this weekend! You've read some of these already in this thread.......However I am waiting on injury reports! Always wise!

 Otherwise, I have some teams listed as LEANS.  In my parlance, that means I like the team but not enough support for a pregame bet ->>> however a LIVE bet may be possible depending on the live play I witness. 

 Clear as mud? LOL  Anyway I don't believe we've met before so welcome to my season thread.  You are welcome to post comments as often as you wish, even if critical.  BoL to you with your bets this weekend!! 

 Hey Skeets! While I am no expert, sure I will look deeper at those and render my humble opinion...

Would be worth checking in with Spottie, Bridge1, Longhorn, Run151 and JJWoods just to name a few that pop to mind - as these boys dig deep with analysis! 

@Mskeets

G+........Texas +2.5
G+/G.....Ohio St. -2.5  (likely full G+ rating before end of reg, but premature now)

 For me, this matchup depends on an accurate preseason assessment of team strength in all aspects. I am hopeful mine is...but ya never know!

    My analysis has Texas (the preseason polls #1) RATED almost a half tier higher than OSU to begin the season - largely due to OSU not having a PROVEN starting QB (Texas does), losing 15 KEY starters to the draft  ....and to top it off, losing their championship building DC to Penn St. PLUS the letdown factor does play a small part, as you noted, as well as Texas desiring bigtime to make an early statement and knock off the defending Champs in their own park! Too many ??? for OSU to start the season - although they should join my highest tier by mid-season!

Skeets, my top considerations for assessing teams preseason is: strength at QB, OL, DL (with defensive front 7 a close 4th)

OSU has a rookie QB (talented, but a virgin)....they lost 3 on the OL! (plus their 2 STUD RBs!!!!)....and lost all 4 off the DL!!! And with only one returning starter at LB, the front 7 is very unlikely as good as last yr! OSU only returns 9 starters! Yes, there is transfers, talent and some experience ready to step up but it's not the same as 2 and 3 year carryovers.

TEXAS otoh, has a very talented dual-threat QB that is already under Heisman watch, and as you noted, from quite a pedigree with plenty of HQ advice and prep help from the entire fam damily!!! .....their OL is about the same shape as OSU, having lost plenty......their DL is also in similar shape to OSU losing plenty but good talent waiting to play. However the TEXAS LB corp is TOP NOTCH, which helps the defensive front 7 BIGLY and better overall than OSU

Special teams? Texas appears to have that edge too!

Assuming my ratings are very close to accurate, an almost HALF tier edge - on a neutral field - would suggest TEXAS a fav of roughly -3......But they lose that 3 point edge to OSU's homefield advantage. So, I figure the line should be -110 ML each team/ a pick'em on the spread.

I LEAN to Texas (dog). If I bet I'll very likely insist on a little more cushion with an alt-line... or just wait for a LIVE bet opportunity.

 Hope this may help a little. BoL whatever you decide.

Yes sir on Texas … appreciate your time and effort.    I’m gonna go with Texas in all aspects.   Money line.   Spread line etc.   small plays but I have chance of hitting them all … thank you sir.  And goodness that is a lot to replace for osu… everyone patting you on the back… coach got over hump…. The more I ponder… the better I liken Texas …. These guys …coaches and players…..want to be at their peak in November.   I’ll go with the chip on the shoulder… not the one that is sore from being patted.      

Look at upcoming matchups, per my preseason ratings.

(these are not bets, just analysis!)  You decide if there is value within...

I use 7 main tiers for RATING team strength among all 136 FBS teams:

          G+       G        M+        M        M-        W       W- 

 Whereby  G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin ........W = Weak

M .........NWU +5.5
M+.......Tulane -5.5 <<< LEAN...hoping to take a smaller spread; might alt-line to -4 maybe

M+/m......Toledo +9.0  <<< LEAN. +10.5 alt-line would seem good value
M+..........Kentucky -8.5

Well said King Fubah… I agree that trenches will play an enormous role in this battle, and I’m not quite sure who owns the advantage there.   I’m honestly doubting this Longhorns OL…above average This is such a great game to have kick off the season from so many angles, fantastic! I do add a tick ‘ half pt extra edge to this home field advantage on this particular game with UT and only a handful of home stadiums would I honor with that one.  Buckeyes LB’s are underrated and will be right there all game Styles & Reese and depth. Horns return 3 on offense and on the road, is a terrible spot recipe. Then comes my difference maker on defense Caleb Downs … I don’t see a better DB in the country with an IQ like Travis Hunter.  Fierce, hits, leads…the best player on the field in my opinion when Texas is on Offense.  Dudes phenomenal and a General like that goes along ways in games like this.  Just my thoughts Duke and THANKS for yours always. 

JJ 

 Position rankings comparison from Phil Steele: 

        Texas    OSU

QB      3        46         Texas by wide margin in #1 most important position (Heisman?)
RB       3        15
WR      5         1
OL     26        13        OSU by modest margin in #2 most important position

DL      9        12        Texas by narrow margin in #3 most important position
LB      1         9         Texas by modest margin in #4 most important position  
DB      6         8

ST      6        21        Texas by modest margin  

-------------------

 =    59!        125     

 good knowledge!  Steele is fun stuff…. Is he suggesting that the Longhorns are #1 in the country LB core, RB#3, and DB#6?  I do agree with him on the Texas OL which will have issues on Saturday, and also that the Buckeyes OL will make a statement here. Trenches are huge in this particular game for me as is the home field advantage with all the new players starting for the first time.  It will be phenomenal! 

 good knowledge!  Steele is fun stuff…. Is he suggesting that the Longhorns are #1 in the country LB core, RB#3, and DB#6?  I do agree with him on the Texas OL which will have issues on Saturday, and also that the Buckeyes OL will make a statement here. Trenches are huge in this particular game for me as is the home field advantage with all the new players starting for the first time.  It will be phenomenal! 

@fubah2

prolly taking texas too  

Line on Buckeyes has dropped a full point most places  

  i paid abit more juice totake texas +3 

  i paid abit more juice totake texas +3 

 Here's the point I think many are overlooking: 

Buckeyes D was great last year *largely BECAUSE* then DC Jim Knowles (now with Penn State!) built that championship defense over 3 seasons and had 9 very talented, veteran starters return last year! Including all 4 top notch veterans on the DL!!!  That's a biggie right there.  HUGE in fact!

But this year, OSU lose their championship building DC, lose the entire DL and return only 3 starters on D 

They are a shell of what they had last year.  Huge, HUGE difference!

 Yes, OSU always has a LOT of very good talent in their program! Absolutely!  But starting experience is definitely lacking compared to last year and even the two seasons before (all under DC Knowles)  It remains to be seen if an entire refit of the DL will match the quality of last year's 4 veteran championship starters (all gone to the NFL now) Maybe, ya never know.

OSU also drops from 2 returning linebackers to just one.

The Buckeye's completely rebuilt defensive front 7 will have to be very good right from the get-go because Arch Manning is a dual-threat *AND* supported by top notch RBs and receivers!  And while a revamped OL may be a concern for a traditional pocket-passer, it is arguably less of a concern with a dual-threat QB!  In fact, invite the pass rush in - all the better!  Manning averaged 4.3 net yards in his appearances last year...He'll be facing a revamped OSU front 7 with only one returning starter...

I believe Boise is really going to have their hands full today.  USF is not rated as high but it's a home game and they are definitely improved, whereas Boise not quite as strong as last year...

That’s what I’ve heard , home team getting 5 

Anything tonight? Best of luck!

BAD gamble at their own 39, fails!  Boise will score!

@mlesnet

Yes.  I am betting NC State -13 -127 alt-line at Pinnacle, though -13.5 is good too and probably -14

  First bet of the 2025 season:

NC State -13 -127 alt-line at Pinnacle  *Best Bet 

 Reminder, typically I DO NOT DO WELL before October!