I'm going to give my opinion on this "circled box" theory, but PLEAZE don't ged mad at what I'm gonna say.
IMO, the raising of the maximum bet that is "circled" is IMO going to be on a line that looks REALLY LOW to 80% of the people. Most of the "circled" lines will mostlikely have a "consensus" of 80% of the poeple on one side and 20% on the other.
IMO, by raising the maximum bet on the "too good to be true" lines, the sports books are just trying to get LOTS of money on the 80% side to make up for a BIG AMOUNT OF MONEY on the 20%.
So, by going AGAINST the public and taking the opposite line, the betting strategy here would be betting WITH the "SHARPS" and betting WITH the BIG MONEY.
And if you are going to track the HIGH MAXIMUM BIDS, you could probably put together the OPPOSITE theory of LOWERED MAXIMUM BIDS, seeing as they are trying to LIMIT people from putting MORE MONEY on a "SOFT" line.
Whenever I've dealt with talking about "sharps", "public", and essentially "trap" games, I've gotten PUMMELED by people's comments.
ONE OF THE MOST FREQUENT comments about this theory that I CAN NOT AGREE WITH, is that "Vegas" and the Sports Books DO NOT try to get 50/50 MONETARY ACTION on all games. In essence they say that all the Sports Books "GAMBLE" with their money and will throw these "soft" lines out there to GATHER TONS OF MONEY on them.
I still to this day will NEVER agree that these Sports Books gamble with their money and take lop-sided money on each side.
The sports books are business, not gambler's, and they keep their books balanced WITH IN the "window" of the 10% juice so they make money EVERYTIME. The lines are adjusted due to the balancing of the money on each side.
By "circling" a line and allowing bigger maximum bids on a line that 80% of the public is on, is IMO trying to get more money from the public to balance out the 20% that put a LOT of money on the other side. The one thing that would be HARD for a Sport Book to do is to get money on the 20% side.
Your theory and MY theory DOES NOT MEAN THAT THEY WILL ALWAYS HIT AND WIN and that the game is "fixed" or "Vegas" knows the outcome of the game, but IMO, I think it DOES show LOPSIDED MONETARY ACTION for the Sports Book.
Best of Luck, Let me know what you think.
I'm going to give my opinion on this "circled box" theory, but PLEAZE don't ged mad at what I'm gonna say.
IMO, the raising of the maximum bet that is "circled" is IMO going to be on a line that looks REALLY LOW to 80% of the people. Most of the "circled" lines will mostlikely have a "consensus" of 80% of the poeple on one side and 20% on the other.
IMO, by raising the maximum bet on the "too good to be true" lines, the sports books are just trying to get LOTS of money on the 80% side to make up for a BIG AMOUNT OF MONEY on the 20%.
So, by going AGAINST the public and taking the opposite line, the betting strategy here would be betting WITH the "SHARPS" and betting WITH the BIG MONEY.
And if you are going to track the HIGH MAXIMUM BIDS, you could probably put together the OPPOSITE theory of LOWERED MAXIMUM BIDS, seeing as they are trying to LIMIT people from putting MORE MONEY on a "SOFT" line.
Whenever I've dealt with talking about "sharps", "public", and essentially "trap" games, I've gotten PUMMELED by people's comments.
ONE OF THE MOST FREQUENT comments about this theory that I CAN NOT AGREE WITH, is that "Vegas" and the Sports Books DO NOT try to get 50/50 MONETARY ACTION on all games. In essence they say that all the Sports Books "GAMBLE" with their money and will throw these "soft" lines out there to GATHER TONS OF MONEY on them.
I still to this day will NEVER agree that these Sports Books gamble with their money and take lop-sided money on each side.
The sports books are business, not gambler's, and they keep their books balanced WITH IN the "window" of the 10% juice so they make money EVERYTIME. The lines are adjusted due to the balancing of the money on each side.
By "circling" a line and allowing bigger maximum bids on a line that 80% of the public is on, is IMO trying to get more money from the public to balance out the 20% that put a LOT of money on the other side. The one thing that would be HARD for a Sport Book to do is to get money on the 20% side.
Your theory and MY theory DOES NOT MEAN THAT THEY WILL ALWAYS HIT AND WIN and that the game is "fixed" or "Vegas" knows the outcome of the game, but IMO, I think it DOES show LOPSIDED MONETARY ACTION for the Sports Book.
Best of Luck, Let me know what you think.
IF Sports Books take 50/50 MONETARY ACTION to collect their 10% JUICE ALL THE TIME, the equation would be this (based on 80/20 PEOPLE action and 50/50 MONETARY action):
BIG $ x 20 People = Small Money x 20 People
If they open up "higher maximum bids", IMO, I think that the "sharps" have already put BIG bets in and when you have 80% of the "public" seeing a "too good to be true" spread, it's EASY to get money flowing in on a "still a wow" line.
The 20% who drop the big money probably won't drop MORE on it seeing as they already dropped big on it, but the 80% public will get WIDE-EYES and start betting BIGGER than their theoretical "money management" strategy would alllow them (human nature kicks in there).
IMO, opening up "higher maximum bets" on a game that has 80% on one side with WIDE-EYES, I feel it'll just add MORE money on the OTHER side of a BIG bet.
Best of Luck Everyone
I've seen one OTHER instance where my Sports Book does something weird and I always take that line and hit about 80% of the time.
My book doesn't do the "circled" bets, but I did used Blodog at one point and remember that they circled bets so that you couldn't use them in parlays and teasers. You were only allowed to bet it as a SINGLE bet. There might have been different COLORS which meant different things now that I try to recall the "circling" they did. MAYBE a certain color meant higher or lower maximum bets.
Best of Luck, Maybe I'll post my other "weird" thing that MY sports book does once-in-awhile. I'm pretty sure your books circle a LOT more often than the instance that I've noticed in MY book.
I see this "weird occurrance" very seldom and it's ONLY on spreads of 10.5 or more points.
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