Best chances of winning. I am going to play a future which I never play. The idea of being able to get 4 teams at even money (or much better) is too good to pass up. What a wide open tourney should be more upsets than ever!
My 4-
UNC
Nova
Kansas
Az
Show me your best four and do not bother criticizing mine, at this point they are all the same.........
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Best chances of winning. I am going to play a future which I never play. The idea of being able to get 4 teams at even money (or much better) is too good to pass up. What a wide open tourney should be more upsets than ever!
My 4-
UNC
Nova
Kansas
Az
Show me your best four and do not bother criticizing mine, at this point they are all the same.........
I am big on Duke. Don't want to 'criticize' you, but for the sake of adding something new, and well regardless of what you have, I am big on Duke. This team's defensive effort has been sporadic, but when they really concentrate, it's been there. In their horrible rut without coach K, they really shut down the Irish in South Bend. They were decisive in the second half of the ACC tourney games, doing what was necessary to keep them in it. And boy do they have that X-factor in the second half, Kennard, Allen too, who can knock down shots. If they can stretch that tough interior of UNC, I think they can do so against anyone. That defeat of UNC really sold me, if anyone can exploit Duke's weakness on the inside, it has to be UNC with Meeks, and Duke blew them out of the water in the second half with less rest. Really like Duke. BOL
I am big on Duke. Don't want to 'criticize' you, but for the sake of adding something new, and well regardless of what you have, I am big on Duke. This team's defensive effort has been sporadic, but when they really concentrate, it's been there. In their horrible rut without coach K, they really shut down the Irish in South Bend. They were decisive in the second half of the ACC tourney games, doing what was necessary to keep them in it. And boy do they have that X-factor in the second half, Kennard, Allen too, who can knock down shots. If they can stretch that tough interior of UNC, I think they can do so against anyone. That defeat of UNC really sold me, if anyone can exploit Duke's weakness on the inside, it has to be UNC with Meeks, and Duke blew them out of the water in the second half with less rest. Really like Duke. BOL
Maybe, just maybe it's finally Gonzaga's turn to win it. I'll add Villanova who can match up against anyone, SMU even though they'll have to beat both Baylor and Duke just to get to the elite 8, and Louisville which somehow flies under the radar.
Maybe, just maybe it's finally Gonzaga's turn to win it. I'll add Villanova who can match up against anyone, SMU even though they'll have to beat both Baylor and Duke just to get to the elite 8, and Louisville which somehow flies under the radar.
I may be wrong but I do not see Duke. I appreciate all the responses but to me, when the tourney starts, the slow, small guards of Duke will be overshadowed by the athletic stars of tomorrow.
Kennard is fun to watch but after this tourney he is going to play at the local YMCA for the next 40 years....
Good Luck guys,
Crash-
I may be wrong but I do not see Duke. I appreciate all the responses but to me, when the tourney starts, the slow, small guards of Duke will be overshadowed by the athletic stars of tomorrow.
Kennard is fun to watch but after this tourney he is going to play at the local YMCA for the next 40 years....
I'm that guy. Nobody wants to hear my opinion but I think the top teams are over rated. They all have large flaws and are vulnerable: I.E. ,Duke has no rim protector[do they ever?] NC has shaky D, Louisville is short on shooters. Kentucky as usual is young and inexperienced. Kansas doesn't look tough. Zags look good but haven't played tough competition in awhile[I realize that is redundant] Zona is long but not thick like most of the PAC and I don't know how Or replaces all of Boucher's blocks and altered shots. Just sayin I don't think the top seeds are that dominant and may not fill the final four.
I'm that guy. Nobody wants to hear my opinion but I think the top teams are over rated. They all have large flaws and are vulnerable: I.E. ,Duke has no rim protector[do they ever?] NC has shaky D, Louisville is short on shooters. Kentucky as usual is young and inexperienced. Kansas doesn't look tough. Zags look good but haven't played tough competition in awhile[I realize that is redundant] Zona is long but not thick like most of the PAC and I don't know how Or replaces all of Boucher's blocks and altered shots. Just sayin I don't think the top seeds are that dominant and may not fill the final four.
What worries me about Duke is the fact that they are playing in South Carolina, and could very easily get the Gamecocks in the 2nd round. Don't know how the NCAA Tourney committee figured that one to be fair. Also don't count out SMU. This is a very good team, talented, experienced and could compete with Duke on a neutral court no problem.
My Top 4 teams are as follows:
U of A & Gonzaga - Path to Final Four is Salt Lake City, San Jose then Final Four in Glendale, AZ. I think betting both these teams to win the National Championship is a smart idea. They may end up eliminating one another, but the winner will have homecourt through the rest of the tourney.
Kansas - It's time for the World to meet Josh Jackson. Kansas has all the pieces, including an experienced guard in Frank Mason. The only team with the talent to upend them in the Midwest is L'Ville. I don't trust Oregon w/out Boucher. I think Kansas cake walks all the way to the Final Four.
UNC - Got a very easy draw and has the most talent in the whole tourney. Kentucky will have to get past UCLA/Cincy and Kentucky/Wichita St. before they even face the tarheels. The South bracket should be a cake walk for UNC, just like it was Kansas.
What worries me about Duke is the fact that they are playing in South Carolina, and could very easily get the Gamecocks in the 2nd round. Don't know how the NCAA Tourney committee figured that one to be fair. Also don't count out SMU. This is a very good team, talented, experienced and could compete with Duke on a neutral court no problem.
My Top 4 teams are as follows:
U of A & Gonzaga - Path to Final Four is Salt Lake City, San Jose then Final Four in Glendale, AZ. I think betting both these teams to win the National Championship is a smart idea. They may end up eliminating one another, but the winner will have homecourt through the rest of the tourney.
Kansas - It's time for the World to meet Josh Jackson. Kansas has all the pieces, including an experienced guard in Frank Mason. The only team with the talent to upend them in the Midwest is L'Ville. I don't trust Oregon w/out Boucher. I think Kansas cake walks all the way to the Final Four.
UNC - Got a very easy draw and has the most talent in the whole tourney. Kentucky will have to get past UCLA/Cincy and Kentucky/Wichita St. before they even face the tarheels. The South bracket should be a cake walk for UNC, just like it was Kansas.
Best chances of winning. I am going to play a future which I never play. The idea of being able to get 4 teams at even money (or much better) is too good to pass up. What a wide open tourney should be more upsets than ever!My 4-UNCNovaKansasAzShow me your best four and do not bother criticizing mine, at this point they are all the same.........
We agree on 3 and I took a shot with Wichita st with the poor 10th seeding. They like to make head lines. Upsets sell television ratings. Wichita st might be A 10th seed on paper but in reality are much better.
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Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:
Best chances of winning. I am going to play a future which I never play. The idea of being able to get 4 teams at even money (or much better) is too good to pass up. What a wide open tourney should be more upsets than ever!My 4-UNCNovaKansasAzShow me your best four and do not bother criticizing mine, at this point they are all the same.........
We agree on 3 and I took a shot with Wichita st with the poor 10th seeding. They like to make head lines. Upsets sell television ratings. Wichita st might be A 10th seed on paper but in reality are much better.
Best chances of winning. I am going to play a future which I never play. The idea of being able to get 4 teams at even money (or much better) is too good to pass up. What a wide open tourney should be more upsets than ever!
My 4-
UNC
Nova
Kansas
Az
Show me your best four and do not bother criticizing mine, at this point they are all the same.........
The problem with this is that there most likely isn't a group of 4 teams that is collectively better than 50% to win this thing. If there is, it's only by a % point or two and it most certainly doesn't include Az or Kansas.
Not knocking your selections, just pointing out what the MATH is dictating. It's extremely simple to extrapolate what each team's chances are. You just need to decide what ratings/numbers you're going to use....
Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:
Best chances of winning. I am going to play a future which I never play. The idea of being able to get 4 teams at even money (or much better) is too good to pass up. What a wide open tourney should be more upsets than ever!
My 4-
UNC
Nova
Kansas
Az
Show me your best four and do not bother criticizing mine, at this point they are all the same.........
The problem with this is that there most likely isn't a group of 4 teams that is collectively better than 50% to win this thing. If there is, it's only by a % point or two and it most certainly doesn't include Az or Kansas.
Not knocking your selections, just pointing out what the MATH is dictating. It's extremely simple to extrapolate what each team's chances are. You just need to decide what ratings/numbers you're going to use....
Since the advanced KenPom ranking system was established in 2002, no team with an adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) ranking of less than 21 has ever won an NCAA title. The 2009 North Carolina title team had the #21 AdjD ranking, but it also had the #1 KenPom offense; so it was able to compensate for their defense. Aside from that 2009 UNC title team, every other champ team has had a KenPom AdjD rating of #15 or better. The teams that fall under this category this year are:
1. Virginia
2. Gonzaga
3. South Carolina
4. Florida
5. WVU
6. Georgia Tech (NOT IN TOURNEY)
7. Louisville
8. Wisconsin
9. Cincinnati
10. Kentucky
11. Nova
12. Baylor
13. Illinois St. (NOT IN TOURNEY)
14. Alabama (NOT IN TOURNEY)
15. Purdue
I'm a firm believer that one of the 15 teams above are going to be your national champion. Don't waste your time picking teams like Kansas, UNC, Duke, Arizona, Oregon, or UCLA to win this tournament. Doesn't mean that any of these teams can't make a run, but I wouldn't pick them to be my champ. UNC is ranked 25th AdjD, and Kansas is ranked 28th AdJD. Those are the only two teams close to the top 15 rating in AdjD. All the other teams are ranked out of the top 30.
Another stat from KenPom to add on top of the AdjD stat is that all champs but 3 since 2002 had an AdjO (adjusted offensive efficiency) rating in the top 10 along with the top 15 AdjD rating. The only two teams that fall under both categories are:
1. Gonzaga
2. Nova
Good luck with your picks, but my money is going to be on Gonzaga or Nova to win the National Title along with a strong possibility of Louisville or Kentucky. Outside chances for any team not a #1 or #2 seed would be Florida or WVU.
Something to think about...
Since the advanced KenPom ranking system was established in 2002, no team with an adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) ranking of less than 21 has ever won an NCAA title. The 2009 North Carolina title team had the #21 AdjD ranking, but it also had the #1 KenPom offense; so it was able to compensate for their defense. Aside from that 2009 UNC title team, every other champ team has had a KenPom AdjD rating of #15 or better. The teams that fall under this category this year are:
1. Virginia
2. Gonzaga
3. South Carolina
4. Florida
5. WVU
6. Georgia Tech (NOT IN TOURNEY)
7. Louisville
8. Wisconsin
9. Cincinnati
10. Kentucky
11. Nova
12. Baylor
13. Illinois St. (NOT IN TOURNEY)
14. Alabama (NOT IN TOURNEY)
15. Purdue
I'm a firm believer that one of the 15 teams above are going to be your national champion. Don't waste your time picking teams like Kansas, UNC, Duke, Arizona, Oregon, or UCLA to win this tournament. Doesn't mean that any of these teams can't make a run, but I wouldn't pick them to be my champ. UNC is ranked 25th AdjD, and Kansas is ranked 28th AdJD. Those are the only two teams close to the top 15 rating in AdjD. All the other teams are ranked out of the top 30.
Another stat from KenPom to add on top of the AdjD stat is that all champs but 3 since 2002 had an AdjO (adjusted offensive efficiency) rating in the top 10 along with the top 15 AdjD rating. The only two teams that fall under both categories are:
1. Gonzaga
2. Nova
Good luck with your picks, but my money is going to be on Gonzaga or Nova to win the National Title along with a strong possibility of Louisville or Kentucky. Outside chances for any team not a #1 or #2 seed would be Florida or WVU.
Since the advanced KenPom ranking system was established in 2002, no team with an adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) ranking of less than 21 has ever won an NCAA title. The 2009 North Carolina title team had the #21 AdjD ranking, but it also had the #1 KenPom offense; so it was able to compensate for their defense. Aside from that 2009 UNC title team, every other champ team has had a KenPom AdjD rating of #15 or better. The teams that fall under this category this year are:
1. Virginia
2. Gonzaga
3. South Carolina
4. Florida
5. WVU
6. Georgia Tech (NOT IN TOURNEY)
7. Louisville
8. Wisconsin
9. Cincinnati
10. Kentucky
11. Nova
12. Baylor
13. Illinois St. (NOT IN TOURNEY)
14. Alabama (NOT IN TOURNEY)
15. Purdue
I'm a firm believer that one of the 15 teams above are going to be your national champion. Don't waste your time picking teams like Kansas, UNC, Duke, Arizona, Oregon, or UCLA to win this tournament. Doesn't mean that any of these teams can't make a run, but I wouldn't pick them to be my champ. UNC is ranked 25th AdjD, and Kansas is ranked 28th AdJD. Those are the only two teams close to the top 15 rating in AdjD. All the other teams are ranked out of the top 30.
Another stat from KenPom to add on top of the AdjD stat is that all champs but 3 since 2002 had an AdjO (adjusted offensive efficiency) rating in the top 10 along with the top 15 AdjD rating. The only two teams that fall under both categories are:
1. Gonzaga
2. Nova
Good luck with your picks, but my money is going to be on Gonzaga or Nova to win the National Title along with a strong possibility of Louisville or Kentucky. Outside chances for any team not a #1 or #2 seed would be Florida or WVU.
Good stuff, thanks for sharing.
Does this take into account that the Zags have played mostly poor teams and the Tar Heels have played a much tougher schedule?
Quote Originally Posted by SlayTheBooks:
Something to think about...
Since the advanced KenPom ranking system was established in 2002, no team with an adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) ranking of less than 21 has ever won an NCAA title. The 2009 North Carolina title team had the #21 AdjD ranking, but it also had the #1 KenPom offense; so it was able to compensate for their defense. Aside from that 2009 UNC title team, every other champ team has had a KenPom AdjD rating of #15 or better. The teams that fall under this category this year are:
1. Virginia
2. Gonzaga
3. South Carolina
4. Florida
5. WVU
6. Georgia Tech (NOT IN TOURNEY)
7. Louisville
8. Wisconsin
9. Cincinnati
10. Kentucky
11. Nova
12. Baylor
13. Illinois St. (NOT IN TOURNEY)
14. Alabama (NOT IN TOURNEY)
15. Purdue
I'm a firm believer that one of the 15 teams above are going to be your national champion. Don't waste your time picking teams like Kansas, UNC, Duke, Arizona, Oregon, or UCLA to win this tournament. Doesn't mean that any of these teams can't make a run, but I wouldn't pick them to be my champ. UNC is ranked 25th AdjD, and Kansas is ranked 28th AdJD. Those are the only two teams close to the top 15 rating in AdjD. All the other teams are ranked out of the top 30.
Another stat from KenPom to add on top of the AdjD stat is that all champs but 3 since 2002 had an AdjO (adjusted offensive efficiency) rating in the top 10 along with the top 15 AdjD rating. The only two teams that fall under both categories are:
1. Gonzaga
2. Nova
Good luck with your picks, but my money is going to be on Gonzaga or Nova to win the National Title along with a strong possibility of Louisville or Kentucky. Outside chances for any team not a #1 or #2 seed would be Florida or WVU.
Good stuff, thanks for sharing.
Does this take into account that the Zags have played mostly poor teams and the Tar Heels have played a much tougher schedule?
The problem with this is that there most likely isn't a group of 4 teams that is collectively better than 50% to win this thing. If there is, it's only by a % point or two and it most certainly doesn't include Az or Kansas.
Not knocking your selections, just pointing out what the MATH is dictating. It's extremely simple to extrapolate what each team's chances are. You just need to decide what ratings/numbers you're going to use....
No arguments here and the reason I normally do not play futures, too much juice.
Small bet for fun.
Quote Originally Posted by rm990:
The problem with this is that there most likely isn't a group of 4 teams that is collectively better than 50% to win this thing. If there is, it's only by a % point or two and it most certainly doesn't include Az or Kansas.
Not knocking your selections, just pointing out what the MATH is dictating. It's extremely simple to extrapolate what each team's chances are. You just need to decide what ratings/numbers you're going to use....
No arguments here and the reason I normally do not play futures, too much juice.
Florida? No nova or Unc in ur 4 ? Cmon Man !
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