You have Questions? Tim Donaghy has the Answers!

I think Rizzo is fixing these polls.

I guess I stumbled on this too late. I have a good one. 

 

Phil Birnbaum did a pretty interesting analysis of this whole issue.

https://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2009/12/did-tim-donaghy-really-win-70-of-his.html

He basically argued that even with inside information on grudges, etc., it was more or less impossible for Donaghy to win 70% of his bets.  He went on to imply that no true accounting has ever proved that Donaghy was that successful and that its entirely possible that he was lucky/lying about how much of an impact there was.

 

I think there is a widespread belief that simply having a referee on your side (or knowing a ref's subconscious leanings) will magically give you an astronomical edge.  Birnbaum argued pretty well, that no ref could favor a team by more than a couple of foul calls without it being totally obvious.  A couple of foul calls isn't nearly enough to get you anywhere close to 70%.  I'm curious if Donaghy read Birnbaum's critique and if he had a response.

 

Crap here was my question.....

Who should i take tonight?

who paid him,  names

does the reffing comunity discuss the point spreads on the games they are officiating

dude if you dont think nba refs dont share info and cant influence games, especially on totals. i have some really nice property at a great value,  in chile rite now. pls let me know

Wish I had seen this earlier.   Great stuff.

From my perspective, there are two ways to approach questions to Tim.  1) Human Interest or 2) Gambling/Handicapping.   I have a ton of questions for him that would fall into the first category, but since this forum is heavily slanted to the gamblers and "how can I use this information to make money" side, I would focus the questions to enlighten us as it pertains to betting on basketball.

Two questions I would pose:

1)  What type of games are most likely going to his attention?  Certain teams, situations, totals, sides, etc?  Meaningless games, etc?  If there is a trend here, what should gamblers/handicappers look for?

2) Can you "handicap" a referee?  Are there trends?

Thanks a lot--- ThePhantom

does he know of any reffs still in the NBA that have bet b4 and maybe have quit but they never got caught and still officiate today?

This is a great question still laughing about it. David stern having Jordans father killed

How did flex0us83 and navydaspud win the contest. They didn't even post.......

flex0us83  said what  rizz??  and what did  navydaspud ever say?  beacuse  they aren't in this  post!  Rizz,  if 3 guys  can win $100 with betjamica and only  1 post, can't I win  $100  for responding?     

Read the Birnbaum article.  It goes into a lot of detail on the math.

The biggest question is how many extra calls can a corrupt ref make or not make within a game without it becoming blatantly obvious that he is acting well outside of normal variation.

The average ref calls 8 fouls per game per team.  So how many do they need to call in order to give a team that would normally be 50% ATS a 70% ATS probability.  The answer is that they need to call 12 extra fouls. 

Calling 250% of the normal amount is blatantly obvious.  It would set off all sorts of red flags at the league offices.  You cannot realistically believe that somebody's subconscious biases (their grandson is a big fan of a certain play) could be responsible for a 250% increase with all of the negative reprecussions that would bring.

I am willing to believe that biases etc.  do play a factor.  The question is "how much".  I'm willing to believe up to a foul or two extra per game.  But even if a gambler knew that a certain team was going to get one extra call in a night, how much would that change their expected value. 

The fact that Donaghy threw out a completely unrealistic number and had apparently never done any sort of research whatsoever on its implications leads me to believe that he never seriously entertained this question. 

Several other "facts" that Donaghy apparently relied on like Dick Bavetta's love of close games have been thoroughly debunked.

https://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/11341/did-dick-bavetta-prop-up-weaker-teams

All of this makes me question whether a lot of his numbers and facts are based in reality.

 

I would ask him to cut the bull sh*t.. cuz like any thing, you know the man has more to tell!!!!!!!!! not a hater, only a realist... ie EVERY single clown in the MLB who doesn't grab their balls and said ya I did em!!! Not even huge fans, but thanks Jason and Andy for treating us like we have some intelligence.

If this guy was "in the tank," which he obviously was,  there are TOO MANY OTHER FACTORS that control the outcome too....Coaches, players, luck etc....This year I have seen tons of NBA games right on the over-under total, plus dead on the spread..Go figure the odds on that!!!!...SOME IN THE SAME GAME....My question is why not let the public know, via of a short line at the bottom the screen, that PRO FOOTBALL "AND" BASKETBALL ARE NOTHING SHORT OF PRO WRESTLING????.....I have 42 years in this business and Tom D. is "not" even the "tip of the iceberg!"...."Ditto for Pete Rose, Alex Karas,  Paul Hornung and Michael Jordan".........So, is Tom D's book merely a "FOG" covering the entire 'landscape?'

flex0us83  said what  rizz??  and what did  navydaspud ever say?  beacuse  they aren't in this  post!  Rizz,  if 3 guys  can win $100 with betjamica and only  1 post, can't I win  $100  for responding?      -------------------  another rigged contest ----------