Posted:
#51
Congrats double...no matter what you decide to do now, youve made a nice profit as long as you hedge properly here.
MAGAm Yisrael Chai
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When do I HEDGE my MICHIGAN 100-1/80-1 FUTURES ???
Posted:
#52
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:
Congrats double...no matter what you decide to do now, youve made a nice profit as long as you hedge properly here.
Congrats double...no matter what you decide to do now, youve made a nice profit as long as you hedge properly here.
Thanks Brother ....sucks that the
ML IS -300 ....THINKING of putting 3k down to win 1000. ..
If michigan wins i get back 695 ....
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Posted:
#53
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Now would be the time to hedge. Michigan may cover but not likely to win SU.I would get at least a 50-50 split on either team winning but get more if Nova wins which is more likely.I would not ride Michigan out till the end.Michigan is a bit challenged offensively, very strong on def, better then Nova but not close on off, these type teams do have a history of getting blown out in the finals.Michigan is horrendous on 3's, shooting below 27% in 3 of 5 games and below 31.5% in 4 of 5 games.Nova has been shooting hot and cold in the tournament, followed 50% or better shooting performance with a below 40% performance.Nova had by far worst shooting performance VS Texas Tech the game before Kansas, 33.3 % and a horrendous 4 of 24 on 3's.Nova was due a regression VS Kansas and had maybe their best game of the tournament. But now considering quality of opp may of had their best game by far in tournament may be the entire year which is not sustainable, very possible they do not play as well offensively as they did VS Kansas.Michigan shot below 45% in 4 of 5 games and below 42.5% in 3 of 5 games, teams like this don't win the title very often.The champion normally has a off median of 47% or better. Michigan is 42.4%. Nova 50%.Other indicators do point to Michigan at least covering
Now would be the time to hedge. Michigan may cover but not likely to win SU.I would get at least a 50-50 split on either team winning but get more if Nova wins which is more likely.I would not ride Michigan out till the end.Michigan is a bit challenged offensively, very strong on def, better then Nova but not close on off, these type teams do have a history of getting blown out in the finals.Michigan is horrendous on 3's, shooting below 27% in 3 of 5 games and below 31.5% in 4 of 5 games.Nova has been shooting hot and cold in the tournament, followed 50% or better shooting performance with a below 40% performance.Nova had by far worst shooting performance VS Texas Tech the game before Kansas, 33.3 % and a horrendous 4 of 24 on 3's.Nova was due a regression VS Kansas and had maybe their best game of the tournament. But now considering quality of opp may of had their best game by far in tournament may be the entire year which is not sustainable, very possible they do not play as well offensively as they did VS Kansas.Michigan shot below 45% in 4 of 5 games and below 42.5% in 3 of 5 games, teams like this don't win the title very often.The champion normally has a off median of 47% or better. Michigan is 42.4%. Nova 50%.Other indicators do point to Michigan at least covering
Thank you for your time spent posting the above ...
Villanova might blow them out ...likely laying 3 k to win a grand
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Posted:
#56
Hey Double.....Woodbine tomorrow night. If I have a hot horse and good odds pre-race, I will ship it to ya. I have been hitting some good ones straight up. Pick 5 are being hit regularly but small.....win4 are getting big again. Spring fever! Time for all kinds of longshots....not trying in the Qualifiers and then winning on the engine in their first race.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Posted:
#57
Ok, so you got a $1650 dollar Michigan ml ticket now that you paid $50 bucks for. I consider that Loyola bet separate since it was for a middle. You know you're just in a shiitty spot now with no middle and a bad price for a buyout. I would say ingame, but if Nova starts out fast like last game you'll never get a chance. Only other thing I can think of is a 2 team teaser if you have something great to pair it with. GL
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Posted:
#58
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Hey Double.....Woodbine tomorrow night. If I have a hot horse and good odds pre-race, I will ship it to ya. I have been hitting some good ones straight up. Pick 5 are being hit regularly but small.....win4 are getting big again. Spring fever! Time for all kinds of longshots....not trying in the Qualifiers and then winning on the engine in their first race.
Hey Double.....Woodbine tomorrow night. If I have a hot horse and good odds pre-race, I will ship it to ya. I have been hitting some good ones straight up. Pick 5 are being hit regularly but small.....win4 are getting big again. Spring fever! Time for all kinds of longshots....not trying in the Qualifiers and then winning on the engine in their first race.
Great to hear from you Brother
That crazy delay at woodbine saturday brought out the bombers ... A fellow degen at otb hit the late pick 4 for 60 cents .( over $1k ) .....
Bought the program this morning for tonight ... Some tough races , i have 5 of the last 7 races wide open .... Hope you come up with something Brother .... Might let my kids pick a few ...lol
Thanks for your time
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Posted:
#59
Quote Originally Posted by HarryKnutsak:
Ok, so you got a $1650 dollar Michigan ml ticket now that you paid $50 bucks for. I consider that Loyola bet separate since it was for a middle. You know you're just in a shiitty spot now with no middle and a bad price for a buyout. I would say ingame, but if Nova starts out fast like last game you'll never get a chance. Only other thing I can think of is a 2 team teaser if you have something great to pair it with. GL
Ok, so you got a $1650 dollar Michigan ml ticket now that you paid $50 bucks for. I consider that Loyola bet separate since it was for a middle. You know you're just in a shiitty spot now with no middle and a bad price for a buyout. I would say ingame, but if Nova starts out fast like last game you'll never get a chance. Only other thing I can think of is a 2 team teaser if you have something great to pair it with. GL
Poopy spot for sure , with Nova being such a heavy chalk ....
3695 if Michigan wins .... Not sure how much to lay on Nova -300 ?????
Tempted to just go low and root for my hometown guy John Beilein ... Maybe 2100 to win 700 ???
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Posted:
#60
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:
Great to hear from you Brother
That crazy delay at woodbine saturday brought out the bombers ... A fellow degen at otb hit the late pick 4 for 60 cents .( over $1k ) .....
Bought the program this morning for tonight ... Some tough races , i have 5 of the last 7 races wide open .... Hope you come up with something Brother .... Might let my kids pick a few ...lol
Thanks for your time
I had 3 horses alive on that Win4 and DID NOT HIT....argh....went and backed up other horses and got small payout. I also missed the Pick 5 when #! snapped at the beginning.....got $20 win on that 9 so I came out ahead there.
Will cap later this afternoon.....will let you know my thoughts on either a major key or 1-2 horses in the odd race that are booked 6-1 or better who are primed for a win due too driver changes, flow or closing times or dropping in class.
GL brother with your Michigan, but check this stat out I uncovered from SBR forum:
Nova is the nation’s top scoring team recording 86.8 points per game, and has punished hot defenses like Michigan all season. Versus opponents holding foes to under 46.0 percent from the floor in their last five games, the Cats are 22-2 SU and an eye-catching 19-4 ATS, putting up 87.7 points a night.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Posted:
#62
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:
Yeah I was basing your ticket on actual replacement cost. Mich ml was
+260 but up to +280 today so your ticket is now $1535 to win $4300 That Nova ml is so steep I don't think it's really worth it. If you can't find anything to put together in a tease to reduce the juice, do you know any Michigan backers who you could off load some of it on at a better price? Or an alt line? I see Nova -2.5 -200, opens a small window to get double fukked but don't see this being a 1 bucket game. GL with whatever you decide
Poopy spot for sure , with Nova being such a heavy chalk ....
3695 if Michigan wins .... Not sure how much to lay on Nova -300 ?????
Tempted to just go low and root for my hometown guy John Beilein ... Maybe 2100 to win 700 ???
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Posted:
#63
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Hey D-UP.....you can google FREE WOODBINE HARNESS PROGRAM and get the program for free on a PDF....save you some money. Beauty is, you can also enlarge it because those programs are way too small of writing
Hey D-UP.....you can google FREE WOODBINE HARNESS PROGRAM and get the program for free on a PDF....save you some money. Beauty is, you can also enlarge it because those programs are way too small of writing
Wow you saved me trips to OTB ....
MANY THANKS BROTHER .....
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Posted:
#64
Quote Originally Posted by HarryKnutsak:
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life: Poopy spot for sure , with Nova being such a heavy chalk .... 3695 if Michigan wins .... Not sure how much to lay on Nova -300 ????? Tempted to just go low and root for my hometown guy John Beilein ... Maybe 2100 to win 700 ??? Yeah I was basing your ticket on actual replacement cost. Mich ml was +260 but up to +280 today so your ticket is now $1535 to win $4300 That Nova ml is so steep I don't think it's really worth it. If you can't find anything to put together in a tease to reduce the juice, do you know any Michigan backers who you could off load some of it on at a better price? Or an alt line? I see Nova -2.5 -200, opens a small window to get double fukked but don't see this being a 1 bucket game. GL with whatever you decide
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life: Poopy spot for sure , with Nova being such a heavy chalk .... 3695 if Michigan wins .... Not sure how much to lay on Nova -300 ????? Tempted to just go low and root for my hometown guy John Beilein ... Maybe 2100 to win 700 ??? Yeah I was basing your ticket on actual replacement cost. Mich ml was +260 but up to +280 today so your ticket is now $1535 to win $4300 That Nova ml is so steep I don't think it's really worth it. If you can't find anything to put together in a tease to reduce the juice, do you know any Michigan backers who you could off load some of it on at a better price? Or an alt line? I see Nova -2.5 -200, opens a small window to get double fukked but don't see this being a 1 bucket game. GL with whatever you decide
Ahhhh. I see what youre saying ....
At this point , part of me is tempted to just ride it out ....But the smarter portion of my brain ( 3%) wants to turn a profit .....
My only local that would allow me to do a HUGE ML BET on NOVA still has them -300 ..... Locally Michigan gets more action due to Beilein getting his start here .....
I will post it before tip off .....its either let it ride or 3k to win a grrrr....
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Posted:
#65
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Hey D-UP.....you can google FREE WOODBINE HARNESS PROGRAM and get the program for free on a PDF....save you some money.
Hey D-UP.....you can google FREE WOODBINE HARNESS PROGRAM and get the program for free on a PDF....save you some money.
Beauty is, you can also enlarge it because those programs are way too small of writing
Here is my early pick 4
Race 4. 3,4,5,7,8,
Race 5 1,5,6,
Race 6. 6,7
Race 7. 2,6,7,9
Cost $24 for 20 cents
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:
Yeah your ticket is no longer a future and just a straight 1 game Mich ml bet. The value is you bet $50 instead of $1535 to win $4300
Ahhhh. I see what youre saying ....
At this point , part of me is tempted to just ride it out ....But the smarter portion of my brain ( 3%) wants to turn a profit .....
My only local that would allow me to do a HUGE ML BET on NOVA still has them -300 ..... Locally Michigan gets more action due to Beilein getting his start here .....
I will post it before tip off .....its either let it ride or 3k to win a grrrr....
If you're going to count the Loyola bet against your winnings then it has to count on both sides which really would drop your 3k/1k win with Nova down $655 to $345 So now you either pocket $695 if Mich wins or $345 if Nova wins. Almost makes you wanna let it ride now doesn't it?
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Posted:
#68
MONDAY HORSES Double-UP:
Race#1 - 6-1 morning line....Per Henriksen....opens 3-1 now horse won quali and had a successful 2-year filly campaign....won last yr in 1:56
....none can do the same but consider #8 @9-2 morning line (10-1 now) and #7 @ 3-1 morning (4-1 now)
Race#2 - ALL (6 horses), however, if pressed I would key or combine a Moreau/Roy combo #5 or even better, Trevor on a Montini horse which almost stole it on a 25 sec 1st quarter....no blazers off the gate this time in this race so I really like #4 @ 7-2 morning line with a better rated Trevor steer...only lost by 1 length last time on those wicked fractions
Race#3 - KEY- Jamieson family Trotter Dunbar Hall #1- free for all dropping down and is 1 second faster winner than others.....if they screw around or breaks, include (5, 6, 7).......#5 is 10-1 morning line Moreau/Roy trotter and you know sometimes they can shave 2 seconds off a lifetime at 10-1 or better and everyone says wtf? when it happens.....capping 101....Moreau horse is close, put it in!!
Race#4 - #4 Kwicky Kwanzaa....McNair coming close and now Luc Roy takes over and that is one of my fave drive changes!! 7-1 morning line.....also, #7 Aphro Star....Gallucci takes over training 12-1 morning line with Trevor!!....tough race....also like (1, 3, 6, 8, 9) as well
Race #5 - #6 Luc Roy upset or #3 upset with Sylvain Filion....have to plug in #1 as well....Hensley horse with back class
Race #6 - #4 Windsum Revenge is back@!!!....6-1 morning line and is capable of winning at first asking in free for all...like # 2, 7 also
Race #7-
GOOD LUCK...leaving now to play
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Posted:
#70
Quote Originally Posted by HarryKnutsak:
Yeah your ticket is no longer a future and just a straight 1 game Mich ml bet. The value is you bet $50 instead of $1535 to win $4300
If you're going to count the Loyola bet against your winnings then it has to count on both sides which really would drop your 3k/1k win with Nova down $655 to $345 So now you either pocket $695 if Mich wins or $345 if Nova wins. Almost makes you wanna let it ride now doesn't it?
Yeah your ticket is no longer a future and just a straight 1 game Mich ml bet. The value is you bet $50 instead of $1535 to win $4300
If you're going to count the Loyola bet against your winnings then it has to count on both sides which really would drop your 3k/1k win with Nova down $655 to $345 So now you either pocket $695 if Mich wins or $345 if Nova wins. Almost makes you wanna let it ride now doesn't it?
I get it brother ....
I am forced to just let it ride ...Local maxed me to a grand ...saying he has too much money on the game ( makes no sense) .....Believe he just did not want me hedging too large ....
Whatever i guess ...MICHIGAN wins and I AM A FANATIC WOLVERINE FAN FOR LIFE 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Posted:
#73
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Oh shoot sorry D-up....didn't send it! Was in a rush to get to the off-track!
Oh shoot sorry D-up....didn't send it! Was in a rush to get to the off-track!
In the 7th....keyed win4 to #2 Roy/Moreau....but that race is pretty much an ALL
Thanks Brother
I dookied out in the first leg ....
Thanks for posting all ypur picks brother
Appreciate your time
Late pick 4
Race 7 1,2,5,6,7,9
Race 8. 5,7
Race 9. 1,2,3
Race 10. 1,7 8,9,10
$36
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Posted:
#75
Quote Originally Posted by smalltime21:
Best of luck tonight Dub. I am a big Wolverine fan for one night too.
Much respect for throwing down on that Woodbine chariot racing. I never could cap that.
I remember telling you how much I love Dale Murphy ...
But my Dad just told me , when he was my little league coach he purchased Braves jerseys out of pocket so I could wear #3 for one season ....
Woodbine is the only track i can win at ....sometimes
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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