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When do I HEDGE my MICHIGAN 100-1/80-1 FUTURES ???

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DoubleUp4Life

Banned

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 11:52 AM ET #1

Whats Up Brothers ???

Love seeing Michigan as the Chalk vs Loyola Chicago ....Plenty of Options to Hedge from here on out ....

.DO I HEDGE A % NOW WITH LOYOLA ML ??? OR PLUS THE POINTS ????

OR DO I WAIT UNTIL the CHAMPIONSHIP GAME and Hedge with NOVA OR KANSAS ??? , who will likely be the Chalk over Michigan

MICHIGAN

80-1 $35/2800

100-1. $15/1500

Invested around $200 in Losing NCAABB futures

Having a Decent Tourney so Far

9-3-1 +$589.50

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

Trev_bet

Rookie

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 726

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 1:14 PM ET #2

Don’t hedge, ride it out. Michigan it is

BIGDTITLE

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 26914

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 1:37 PM ET #3

with 4300 on the line why wouldn't you hedge a bit?

say throw 300-400 down on Loyola +5 and you might win both. then, look to hedge on Monday.

Beningo88

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 23483

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 1:59 PM ET #4

Hedging is about if you need the money. If you need the money hedge, if not let it ride

njburch23

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2018

Posts: 377

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 2:04 PM ET #5

when/where the heck did you get 100/1 and 80/1 for michigan to win the chip? I had them at 10/1 and put 50 on them to in 500

Mananddogs

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2018

Posts: 856

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 2:06 PM ET #6

wow.... I thought my 50 bucks to win 800 was decent lol

OF COURSE you should hedge!!

You have 50 risk to win $4300.... so you want to make sure you win at least SOME decent $$$

put 300-400 on +6.5 ( buy 1.5 pts, -40cents juice) this allows you to WIN your wagers if gm ends on Mich by 5 or 6

lets say you put 300... so, risking 420 to win 300

AND put some on the ml... (+205) I'd risk 200 to win 410...

*IF Mich blows em out... you lose -620... still have 50 to win $3680

*IF Mich wins by 1-6... you WIN $100... and advance to finals Mon

*IF Loy-Chi beats em... you WIN $710... net profit $660 after deducting the 50 loss w/Mich future

then on Monday... when they're facing either Kan or Nova.. Mich will be the dog (maybe 1 pt to Kan, 3 pts to Nova?)... only way to cover is to put $$ on the either Kan or Nova ml...

*Maybe to win 1k on either Kan or Nova... ? or would u be happy winning 2k no matter if Mich wins or loses... ?

DO the math... and make $$ no matter what!!

nice for you!!

packersbackers

Banned

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 52975

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 2:08 PM ET #7

take Loyola ats for 330/300...then you could win both and be freerolling into the finals.

MAGAm Yisrael Chai

DoubleUp4Life

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 6:06 PM ET #8

Quote Originally Posted by Trev_bet:

Don’t hedge, ride it out. Michigan it is

I am a BIG John Beiliein Fan ...He got his start in WNY ( my turf )

However I want some Cash back regardless

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

DoubleUp4Life

Banned

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 6:09 PM ET #9

Quote Originally Posted by acer00:

You really can't figure this out or is this just another look at me post?

NO , Dont need any attention for this , All my Posts get read either way an_violin

Just NOT sure if I should bet Loyola ATS or ML ??? and for how Much ....

On a side note BROTHER , why are you so Angry all the time ???

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

DoubleUp4Life

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 6:10 PM ET #10

Quote Originally Posted by njburch23:

when/where the heck did you get 100/1 and 80/1 for michigan to win the chip? I had them at 10/1 and put 50 on them to in 500

Dec. 23rd as posted

Believe they were 150-1 or greater before

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

DoubleUp4Life

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 6:11 PM ET #11

Quote Originally Posted by BIGDTITLE:

with 4300 on the line why wouldn't you hedge a bit?say throw 300-400 down on Loyola +5 and you might win both. then, look to hedge on Monday.

I am thinking Loyola with the Points for 500+ , Locals here Might have Michigan a tad higher before tip off than the actual line

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

DoubleUp4Life

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 6:16 PM ET #12

Quote Originally Posted by Mananddogs:

wow.... I thought my 50 bucks to win 800 was decent lolOF COURSE you should hedge!!You have 50 risk to win $4300.... so you want to make sure you win at least SOME decent $$$put 300-400 on +6.5 ( buy 1.5 pts, -40cents juice) this allows you to WIN your wagers if gm ends on Mich by 5 or 6lets say you put 300... so, risking 420 to win 300AND put some on the ml... (+205) I'd risk 200 to win 410...*IF Mich blows em out... you lose -620... still have 50 to win $3680*IF Mich wins by 1-6... you WIN $100... and advance to finals Mon*IF Loy-Chi beats em... you WIN $710... net profit $660 after deducting the 50 loss w/Mich futurethen on Monday... when they're facing either Kan or Nova.. Mich will be the dog (maybe 1 pt to Kan, 3 pts to Nova?)... only way to cover is to put $$ on the either Kan or Nova ml... *Maybe to win 1k on either Kan or Nova... ? or would u be happy winning 2k no matter if Mich wins or loses... ? DO the math... and make $$ no matter what!! nice for you!!

50 to win 800 is great for you ... IMNHO I think they handle and or beat Loyola by 5+ ....My Numbers have Michigan -6.3 for what its worth >LOL

NOT a big fan of buying points and Paying more juice , but you might have the right idea ...Hoping the spread pops back up to 5.5 or so ...

ML is +240 right now , Might jump at 5-2 ro better ...

THANKS BROTHER ... FOR YOUR TIME

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

DoubleUp4Life

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 6:19 PM ET #13

WOW ....Just noticed the line is back up to +5.5 .......hmmmmm

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

vigus86

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2017

Posts: 17

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 6:26 PM ET #14

Loy-Chi was +75000 on March 4th. I was too chicken to put more than $5 on it. LOL

DoubleUp4Life

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 6:59 PM ET #15

Quote Originally Posted by vigus86:

Loy-Chi was +75000 on March 4th. I was too chicken to put more than $5 on it. LOL

wow .... I feel ya ... They were so solid ATS , and I had them winning their first 2 games , but I am not sure I had the b a l l s to put down $2

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

chilitokid

All-Star

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 10399

Posted: Mar. 27, 2018 - 8:27 PM ET #16

You have a good position right now. I would hedge and even buy points hoping for a middle. The game is going to be on the spread with 1-2 minutes to go. Wagner is a matchup nightmare in this game for Loyola butDuncan Robinson will be the main factor down the stretch as he is fantastic at the line.

DoubleUp4Life

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 28, 2018 - 9:03 AM ET #17

Quote Originally Posted by Beningo88:

Hedging is about if you need the money. If you need the money hedge, if not let it ride

Yes Brother ...i want to win some money off this bet

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

DoubleUp4Life

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 28, 2018 - 9:58 AM ET #18

Quote Originally Posted by njburch23:

when/where the heck did you get 100/1 and 80/1 for michigan to win the chip? I had them at 10/1 and put 50 on them to in 500

Also forgot to mention it was 5 dimes

Best of luck Brother ..lets make some coin

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

BennyIcers

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Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 1227

Posted: Mar. 28, 2018 - 10:18 AM ET #19

Wish I had your mentality to even put $15 on something lol me personally im letting that ride

DoubleUp4Life

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 29, 2018 - 12:02 PM ET #20

Quote Originally Posted by chilitokid:

... Love Beilein with this much time to prepare ....

Might just let it ride this game and wait for the Championship game ...Not looking forward to fading them amd laying juice on Monday

Best of luck brother

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

GarySanders

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Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 1151

Posted: Mar. 29, 2018 - 12:03 PM ET #21

Loyola by 30....might wanna hit up some of those crazy alt lines

theclaw

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Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 12150

Posted: Mar. 30, 2018 - 6:40 AM ET #22

Your in great spot to middle the hedge, taking the points.

Loyola has been very lucky thus far with the no. 1 and no. 2 seed getting beaten in their bracket and they needed to play the 7 and 9 seed instead of what could have been a 1 or 2 seed.

They only needed to beat one top seed, no. 3 Tenn by 1 pt, lower seeded teams can beat a top seed once in awhile but doing it twice in the same tournament might be a very long shot to happen.

They survived the lower seeded bracket is all that happened here. Hey, some team had to survive , just happened to be them.

Highly, highly likely Mich moves on and I think they cover as well, but I could be wrong, but personally I think Michigan will get the cover either with a larger margin win or in a close game get the cover late in the game.