Posted:
#76
Long time reader and first time contributor.
I wanted to thank Kine for the time and effort he puts into his well thought out posts.
This season I have been following a system that closely mirrors Kine's, with my variation being dogs of 10 points or higher. Additionally, if I have the dog covering ATS using an outcome methodology I apply, then I would increase the units on that particular game.
Obviously, the data will vary somewhat depending on the ranking and closing line you use, but what follows supports Kine's methodology, not only for the tail end of the NCAAB season, but throughout the current year.
Below is a YTD summary for dogs getting both 10 or more, and 6.5 or more points, including what would have been the breakdown for one and two unit plays for games as per my criteria.
Also, I have included a SU/ML breakdown, which really puts into perspective how often the points come into play in these games.
Again, this data is based on rankings and closing lines that I applied, and some variation is to be expected. There are some games included in this analysis that Kine might not have used, and some games that Kine might have used that I did not , but it's hard to argue with the overall picture it paints.
I want to make it clear that I did not play all these games, though I wish I had based on the findings.
I thought people who look forward to Kine's posts would find this interesting.
Current NCAAB season * Home Favorite Ranked >179 * ATS Pushes Excluded * Assuming $100 Bets
For Road Dogs of 10 or more - 69 games YTD
Overall ML 4-65 5.8% -$3600 *** If you played the ML Favorite +$2400
Overall ATS 48-19 71.6% + $2710
My 1 Unit ATS Plays 18-9 66.7% + $810
My 2 Unit ATS Plays 30-10 75.0% +$3800
For Road Dog of 6.5 or more - 125 games YTD - Applying Kine's Method For Entire Current Season
Overall ML 15-110 12.0% -$4620 *** If you played the ML Favorite +$2680
Overall ATS 77-43 64.2% + $2970
My 1 Unit ATS Plays 27-22 55.1% + $280
My 2 Unit ATS Plays 50-21 70.4% +$5380
Overall Using Kine System YTD by Month For the Current Season
November ATS 17-10 63.0% December ATS 24-9-2 72.7% January ATS 27-21-3 56.3%
*** Note: On Jan 29-30 Kine went 7-0 - And while there is not an exact game for game correlation between this analysis and all of Kine's selections, it is safe to assume that the system would have been around 50.0% for the month of January if not for the 7-0 run late in the month, adding to Kine's position that the later in the season you apply this methodology the better it is.
In a nutshell, as Kine stated, it certainly appears that when bad home favorites play worse road dogs, take the points.
And if you really want to go crazy, a case can be made for playing ML Favorite and ATS Dog in these situations, though it does appear that the percentage of ML Dogs winning outright has increased dramatically in the past few weeks.
If anyone has historic ranking data by week for the 2009/2010 season, it would be very interesting to see how closely these current season results would match the previous season.
Good Luck to Everyone.
I wanted to thank Kine for the time and effort he puts into his well thought out posts.
This season I have been following a system that closely mirrors Kine's, with my variation being dogs of 10 points or higher. Additionally, if I have the dog covering ATS using an outcome methodology I apply, then I would increase the units on that particular game.
Obviously, the data will vary somewhat depending on the ranking and closing line you use, but what follows supports Kine's methodology, not only for the tail end of the NCAAB season, but throughout the current year.
Below is a YTD summary for dogs getting both 10 or more, and 6.5 or more points, including what would have been the breakdown for one and two unit plays for games as per my criteria.
Also, I have included a SU/ML breakdown, which really puts into perspective how often the points come into play in these games.
Again, this data is based on rankings and closing lines that I applied, and some variation is to be expected. There are some games included in this analysis that Kine might not have used, and some games that Kine might have used that I did not , but it's hard to argue with the overall picture it paints.
I want to make it clear that I did not play all these games, though I wish I had based on the findings.
I thought people who look forward to Kine's posts would find this interesting.
Current NCAAB season * Home Favorite Ranked >179 * ATS Pushes Excluded * Assuming $100 Bets
For Road Dogs of 10 or more - 69 games YTD
Overall ML 4-65 5.8% -$3600 *** If you played the ML Favorite +$2400
Overall ATS 48-19 71.6% + $2710
My 1 Unit ATS Plays 18-9 66.7% + $810
My 2 Unit ATS Plays 30-10 75.0% +$3800
For Road Dog of 6.5 or more - 125 games YTD - Applying Kine's Method For Entire Current Season
Overall ML 15-110 12.0% -$4620 *** If you played the ML Favorite +$2680
Overall ATS 77-43 64.2% + $2970
My 1 Unit ATS Plays 27-22 55.1% + $280
My 2 Unit ATS Plays 50-21 70.4% +$5380
Overall Using Kine System YTD by Month For the Current Season
November ATS 17-10 63.0% December ATS 24-9-2 72.7% January ATS 27-21-3 56.3%
*** Note: On Jan 29-30 Kine went 7-0 - And while there is not an exact game for game correlation between this analysis and all of Kine's selections, it is safe to assume that the system would have been around 50.0% for the month of January if not for the 7-0 run late in the month, adding to Kine's position that the later in the season you apply this methodology the better it is.
In a nutshell, as Kine stated, it certainly appears that when bad home favorites play worse road dogs, take the points.
And if you really want to go crazy, a case can be made for playing ML Favorite and ATS Dog in these situations, though it does appear that the percentage of ML Dogs winning outright has increased dramatically in the past few weeks.
If anyone has historic ranking data by week for the 2009/2010 season, it would be very interesting to see how closely these current season results would match the previous season.
Good Luck to Everyone.
0
Hot Forum Topics
