Wednesday Hoops

Duke - Eh. Love the over. If I had a pair of nuts, I'd go bigger on it. Best two offenses in ACC. Fastest two teams in ACC. Average defenses at best. Can't say I would pick a side. Tough to go against UNC at home, though.

Pitt - Yah, I would point that way but leaned to the under. USF size should cause some problems offensively for them and going into this style isn't the greatest of things coming off a Villanova team that can't defend. Can't see either team running. Should be a game with a ton of stall.

Georgetown - No thoughts. Syracuse isn't the typical zone that allows you to shoot three's on the arc with ease, but I would probably point Gtown there.

Wake - No Thanks. Not sure how they score.

Baylor - Definitely.

St. John's - Would point that direction.

Penn State - No Thanks. Although that lookahead is large for MSU (but if Penn State plays zone then matter of shots falling). Much easier to lookahead when you have to focus and work for a shot. Don't really have to do that with PSU zone.

WVU - I want no part of Notre Dame's burn. On or against. Just takes teams completely away from what they want to do.

LSU - Possibly. Vandy sandwich game, but I can't depend on them to score with Vandy in an up and down game. And I can't go against Vandy at home (but I will probably play Vandy Saturday hoping to catch more than a possession).

St. Joe's - I love STL. Just not in this spot. Tough game, and should be a good one.

Northern Iowa - Yah, big lookahead for Wichita State. But here's the thing. It's a pretty big letdown for UNI as well. I think if I'm in Wichita State's shoes and I see Creighton lose last night, the adrenaline kicks in and they put on a show tonight knowing that they're a game up. Maybe not. Tough game all around.

RI - maybe. Then I see last year's 72-45 score.

GW - Probably a good spot. Seems as though they're back in that funk of not really caring to play any defense like they exhibited earlier in the year, though.

This enough?

GL

Yah.

Drake offense with Simons = Dangerous

Drake offense without Simons = Borderline Pathetic

Only leaning on the total to the under b/c of the three's that will go up. Bit scared. When ISU is hot, they're hot. And when they're not, they're not. They were hot Saturday, but a mini-letdown spot here after waxing their biggest rival.

GL

Cross Temple off w/ Xavier on tap. That would be concern #1.

Yah, this Duke/UNC game is certainly an interesting one. I can't really compare it to Kentucky from yesterday b/c I don't really picture either of these defenses being able to stop the other's offense, really (which is where I underestimated the UK defense).

I'm not a big fan of Penn State there as I pointed out, but it's certainly possible with the MSU looksydoo to Ohio State.

GL

Yah, Seton Hall struggles with zones and Rutgers will almost assuredly use a zone tonight. So, I would definitely point Rutgers also noting the back end of a three game roady for the Hall. My only concern with Rutgers is being able to score against good guard pressure, which they should struggle with tonight. Game's going to be a bit faster I think, and probably has the chance of being a really ugly game. 

GL

Tough game for LaSalle here, I think. They're 6-3 in the conference, best win is probably Xavier at home while Xavier was going through the losing 5 in 6 game stretch. They play fast, they defend exceptionally well for how fast the game is played, but their only road victory on the year in the A-10 is Duquesne. As for the match-up itself, I like Richmond's ability to score against a four-guard defense, and that certainly should pose some problems for LaSalle if they continue to go with the four-guards. I don't think they can, so it'll be interesting to see if they have to change something up to defend a complex offense. Also interesting to note is that while Richmond loves the three-ball, LaSalle loves allowing teams to shoot the three-ball. Even if they don't shoot it well, the quantity over quality is in play here. Richmond's hit a bit of a tough stretch, lost their last three, and haven't looked all that pretty in doing so. Also helps that LaSalle's on the back end of a two game roady where they lost the first one and have the Fightin Rick Majeruson's coming in on Saturday. Another one of those dumb games where both teams should shoot a ton of three's, but I think Richmond will be the more fluid squad not having to make any adjustments (much easier to defend LaSalle when they only trot out three guards).

That's option #1. 

Option 2 is Richmond and Mooney flipping the script and playing four guards themselves, which brings Kendall Anthony into the game rather than staying on the bench. He's their most effective offensive performer and best shooter.

Win/Win I think. Couldn't avoid. 

Richmond's probably a -3 at worst had they won at least one of their last three. Richmond was a +1.5 at home against Temple. Sorry, can't put LaSalle in Temple's league. With that, I think I have value.

GL

Yah, I think this game is played slower.

I would probably lean that way, but are they ever going to win a game on the road????

Georgetown games have been extremely boring. Think the under is the only thing I would take a look at. Then again, if they're hitting from beyond the arc, different ballgame.

Georgetown holds value at 4/1. But eeeeeeeek

Maybe Northeastern? Don't see too many big pups I like tonight.

Maybe Northern Illinois? Might have to get drunk before you submit that one, though. I hate Northern Illinois. They are awful. Just flat out terrible. But Miami OH's just going to come in and jack up 3 after 3 after 3 after 3 after 3 after 3 after 3 after 3 and on and on. They're a team that needs to score, and if they aren't hitting, those long rebounds lead to transition and more opportunities to score for NIU outside of the halfcourt where they are HORRENDOUS.

See value though. 

GL

I agree with Chaz. Part of the reason she's a lean. And totally agree with the A-10 being a clusterf*ck. It's been a fun season, definitely not what everyone expected at the beginning.

I can't see Temple losing, no. Maybe some trouble covering, but I can't see them dropping that one. George Mason concerns? Um..not too many. But, their coach is awful. Mini letdown coming off of homecoming. Good team defense, but that's not all that necessary against a streetball Hofstra team that has two guards taking all of their shots usually on iso plays.

About it. George Mason would be really, really, really good if Hewitt would just let them play. Turn the ball over wayyyyyyyy too much, and Hofstra's a team that will make them pay.

Just a few concerns. If Mason can take care of the ball, should win pretty easy. If they can't, going to be another ugly night.

GL

Well, revenge is a key part of it. Outside of that, I'm not a big fan of Kansas this year. Robinson's an animal, Taylor's good, I won't deny that. Just don't like the rest of the team. Last three road games:

3 point win at Texas

loss at Iowa State

loss at Missouri

Two weeks ago, Baylor failed in the Kansas/Missouri back-to-back, and one of those were at home. Kansas is having to do both of these on the road back-to-back in less prep. If Robinson and Taylor can go for 55+ again combined, Kansas probably wins. Just don't see it happening on the road.

GL

It seems a bit low, but I think Baylor's best chance is slowing this game down, and I think they'll do it. Game really got out of hand in the first meeting which led to a much faster pace (along with the injury to Perry Jones). Seems as if the injury pretty much was on Bill Self's mind and he wanted to run them out of the gym.

GL

Think you're safe. Scary, but safe. Alluded to Mason and Miami OH above.

Only concern with Drexel is if JMU can force the tempo to be a lot faster than what they want to play it at. Weird these two haven't played each other yet this year.

GL

Being at home and on the road are two different things here. Delaware's been pretty impressive at home as of late. If you refer to that write-up, add in a few more points from Delaware and I get some nice value on the over without having to worry about the revenge. Buzz versus sagging defense = points! (hopefully)

GL