Tuesday Hoops

Neil is the best read on the forum. Been betting college basketball for over 10 years now and have based most of my handicapping on statistical analysis and situations but always read his posts before placing wagers on games to see if his insights include any angles that I am missing. His knowledge of coaching styles and matchups is bar none the best on the board and add alot of his information in my own notebook on teams.

Some statistical probability to think about in terms of gambling that has to be considered: 60% win percentage long term is an incredibly profitable clip in which ones bankroll will be at its highest point roughly around 18-22% of the time. Short term win percentages will fluctuate drastically even among the most consistent winning cappers. Short term numbers will roughly stay within a standard deviation of the norm of 60% wins 70% of the time and the expectation of a 5-0 or 0-5 night can be expected close to 1/3 of the time. This accounts for bankroll fluctuations. The true gambler realizes that profit is derived form the long term grind of the advantage of their capping system.

Overreaction to the short term anomalies shows ignorance towards the true nature of sports gambling. The key to success is creating an advantage through a handicapping protocol or system which gives you an advantage over the house and the juice which long term profits can be generated and the realization that this a marathon to reach expected profit margins which will always include the extremes of great days and bad days.

Another factor which is vital to profit is creating a betting system which relatively adheres to the principles of the Kelly Criterion for wagers. Many differ on the exact utilization of the criterion but for argument sake your wagers should range from 2-5% of your total bankroll with standard unit being the most predictable variable of reaching maximum profit expectancy. Following the Kelly criterion eliminates bankruptcy as a bad bet on a "big" game (far more units than normal" will not hamstring your season and create the mindset of chasing bad money.