Day Notes: Going into yesterday’s Michigan game, I was almost certain that Beilein would slow the pace in order to gain an advantage on Memphis but he didn’t. I think that going in he was a bit scared of his perimeter guards taking care of the basketball with the Memphis pressure defense, so he ran with them for a good majority of the game and actually beat this Memphis team running. Needless to say, I was shocked. Going into today’s game with Tennessee, I’m not sure how other team rebounds. Memphis was pretty high on itself going into yesterday’s matchup and they got beat by a team who wasn’t as athletic. Today, they play a team that is athletic in what should be a pretty fast up and down environment I would think. I’ve watched both Memphis games in full this year, and aside from the addition of Thomas’ shooting presence, this team is really no different than last year. The one glaring thing that I see with Memphis so far this year, and this is sort of a thing you can point out when a team thinks they better than they actually are, is that they have looked putrid on the offensive glass. Through two games, they have a total of 11 offensive rebounds. A guard dribble drives, kicks out for three, or they get a decent shot in the half court offense and everyone on the court thinks it’s going in, so no attempt is made at going after an offensive rebound. There is no reason that they should have less than 5 offensive rebounds in a game against a team that they are clearly more athletic than. Back to today’s game, again, I’m really not sure we get each team’s best effort. These two teams played each other back in January of this year, and Tennessee won 104-84 on their home court. In that game, both teams made just as many shots from long distance as they made inside the arc. Both teams made a combined 34 three-pointers good for an average of 61% for the game. The really weird thing is that the 61% they shot from the perimeter was a full ten percentage points higher than what they combined for at the foul line (51%). Tennessee will be a slower style of team this year than in past years under Cuonzo, and I can say that with confidence. I can also say with confidence that I doubt this matchup this year, just 10 months later yields the same three-point shooting that the first meeting showed, so the under might be the way to go in this one, especially noting that both teams played pretty big matchups yesterday and not sure they bounce back in the early tilt here with any emphasis on trying to compete. Is the under risky? Absolutely. Memphis is settling for the outside shot quite a bit, but at the same time, if that shot doesn’t go in, they’re more than likely one and done, back to the defensive end. Continuing yesterday’s trend of figuring out Georgetown, they shot 29% from long distance and lost. With Chaminade, the UCLA bounceback was expected. I have no interest in playing these two teams less than 24 hours removed from yesterday’s games (for Georgetown, you are talking about a 12-13 period), but two things should hold true: Georgetown should shoot better than 30% from long distance, and Georgetown should own the inside. South Dakota State draws Sam Houston State who has scored 41 and 38 against D-1 competition this year. Sam Houston State is probably a mid-pack Southland team, who competes with teams based solely on their average defense, which in the Southland, is generally good enough to stick with opponents. I brought up South Dakota State’s offense yesterday being one of the best in the country, and while they started slow, they caught fire in the second half. That should carry over today, and wouldn’t be surprised to see a blowout here. Sam Houston lost the Southland player of the year last year, and brought a bunch of juco’s in this year b/c the last year’s freshman were pitiful. When a team is full of bottom level juco talent, that teams is almost always missing two things: outside shooting, and foul shooting. And Sam Houston hasn’t showed signs of life from either avenue. What do I expect in this game? Anytime you get all of these juco’s involved against a high scoring and fast tempo team like South Dakota State, you are more than likely going to get some points. This game should be up and down, despite Sam Houston’s low pace figure, and they should score a bit more than the 41 and 38 they’ve posted against D-1 competition this year. As you evidenced yesterday by Niagara putting up 71 (Niagara’s offense I have rated as one of the worst bottom 40 offenses in the country), South Dakota State’s defense is far from stellar. I’ve pointed out Austin Peay’s lack of offense and preparation time and the dumb scheduling a few times now, so I’m clearly off of them in this tournament. However, I’m playing them Saturday in their home opener where they have immediate revenge, and draw a Middle Tennessee State team who will be coming off a 2OT home loss to Belmont. Situational Madness Value, or SVM as I like to call it; hope for an 0-6 record going into that one. I’ve expressed the fact that SMU likes to play slower than a snail, and they control tempo in almost every game they are a part of. Now, they draw a team who likes to do the same in Arkansas Pine Bluff, and a team in Arky PB who’s offense is brutal. They scored 58 and won the game yesterday b/c Florida International’s defense is awful, as I have alluded to before. If FIU can’t get out and run, then their defense looks even worse. Back to this Arkansas Pine Bluff team, and the 7 units I left on the table for failing to take a shot at the ML yesterday because Kennedy hasn’t been in the lineup (they didn’t need him apparently), they’re a team who scores from the PG spot and rarely gets anything else from the other guard positions. Yesterday, they did, but again, thanks to Isaih Thomas’ lack of defensive principles. This game should be extremely slow on a back-to-back here, and neither offense is worth a 60spot here, also noting SMU’s focus on interior defense. There is one concern, and that’s both coaches totally flipping the script or being familiar with what the other teams strengths are. Both teams play similar styles on a daily basis in practice, so familiarity might kill some value in the under. Back with the night games in a bit.
Plays: None
Leans: (Sam Houston State/South Dakota State Over 134, Arkansas Pine Bluff/SMU Under 125)
Day Notes: Going into yesterday’s Michigan game, I was almost certain that Beilein would slow the pace in order to gain an advantage on Memphis but he didn’t. I think that going in he was a bit scared of his perimeter guards taking care of the basketball with the Memphis pressure defense, so he ran with them for a good majority of the game and actually beat this Memphis team running. Needless to say, I was shocked. Going into today’s game with Tennessee, I’m not sure how other team rebounds. Memphis was pretty high on itself going into yesterday’s matchup and they got beat by a team who wasn’t as athletic. Today, they play a team that is athletic in what should be a pretty fast up and down environment I would think. I’ve watched both Memphis games in full this year, and aside from the addition of Thomas’ shooting presence, this team is really no different than last year. The one glaring thing that I see with Memphis so far this year, and this is sort of a thing you can point out when a team thinks they better than they actually are, is that they have looked putrid on the offensive glass. Through two games, they have a total of 11 offensive rebounds. A guard dribble drives, kicks out for three, or they get a decent shot in the half court offense and everyone on the court thinks it’s going in, so no attempt is made at going after an offensive rebound. There is no reason that they should have less than 5 offensive rebounds in a game against a team that they are clearly more athletic than. Back to today’s game, again, I’m really not sure we get each team’s best effort. These two teams played each other back in January of this year, and Tennessee won 104-84 on their home court. In that game, both teams made just as many shots from long distance as they made inside the arc. Both teams made a combined 34 three-pointers good for an average of 61% for the game. The really weird thing is that the 61% they shot from the perimeter was a full ten percentage points higher than what they combined for at the foul line (51%). Tennessee will be a slower style of team this year than in past years under Cuonzo, and I can say that with confidence. I can also say with confidence that I doubt this matchup this year, just 10 months later yields the same three-point shooting that the first meeting showed, so the under might be the way to go in this one, especially noting that both teams played pretty big matchups yesterday and not sure they bounce back in the early tilt here with any emphasis on trying to compete. Is the under risky? Absolutely. Memphis is settling for the outside shot quite a bit, but at the same time, if that shot doesn’t go in, they’re more than likely one and done, back to the defensive end. Continuing yesterday’s trend of figuring out Georgetown, they shot 29% from long distance and lost. With Chaminade, the UCLA bounceback was expected. I have no interest in playing these two teams less than 24 hours removed from yesterday’s games (for Georgetown, you are talking about a 12-13 period), but two things should hold true: Georgetown should shoot better than 30% from long distance, and Georgetown should own the inside. South Dakota State draws Sam Houston State who has scored 41 and 38 against D-1 competition this year. Sam Houston State is probably a mid-pack Southland team, who competes with teams based solely on their average defense, which in the Southland, is generally good enough to stick with opponents. I brought up South Dakota State’s offense yesterday being one of the best in the country, and while they started slow, they caught fire in the second half. That should carry over today, and wouldn’t be surprised to see a blowout here. Sam Houston lost the Southland player of the year last year, and brought a bunch of juco’s in this year b/c the last year’s freshman were pitiful. When a team is full of bottom level juco talent, that teams is almost always missing two things: outside shooting, and foul shooting. And Sam Houston hasn’t showed signs of life from either avenue. What do I expect in this game? Anytime you get all of these juco’s involved against a high scoring and fast tempo team like South Dakota State, you are more than likely going to get some points. This game should be up and down, despite Sam Houston’s low pace figure, and they should score a bit more than the 41 and 38 they’ve posted against D-1 competition this year. As you evidenced yesterday by Niagara putting up 71 (Niagara’s offense I have rated as one of the worst bottom 40 offenses in the country), South Dakota State’s defense is far from stellar. I’ve pointed out Austin Peay’s lack of offense and preparation time and the dumb scheduling a few times now, so I’m clearly off of them in this tournament. However, I’m playing them Saturday in their home opener where they have immediate revenge, and draw a Middle Tennessee State team who will be coming off a 2OT home loss to Belmont. Situational Madness Value, or SVM as I like to call it; hope for an 0-6 record going into that one. I’ve expressed the fact that SMU likes to play slower than a snail, and they control tempo in almost every game they are a part of. Now, they draw a team who likes to do the same in Arkansas Pine Bluff, and a team in Arky PB who’s offense is brutal. They scored 58 and won the game yesterday b/c Florida International’s defense is awful, as I have alluded to before. If FIU can’t get out and run, then their defense looks even worse. Back to this Arkansas Pine Bluff team, and the 7 units I left on the table for failing to take a shot at the ML yesterday because Kennedy hasn’t been in the lineup (they didn’t need him apparently), they’re a team who scores from the PG spot and rarely gets anything else from the other guard positions. Yesterday, they did, but again, thanks to Isaih Thomas’ lack of defensive principles. This game should be extremely slow on a back-to-back here, and neither offense is worth a 60spot here, also noting SMU’s focus on interior defense. There is one concern, and that’s both coaches totally flipping the script or being familiar with what the other teams strengths are. Both teams play similar styles on a daily basis in practice, so familiarity might kill some value in the under. Back with the night games in a bit.
Plays: None
Leans: (Sam Houston State/South Dakota State Over 134, Arkansas Pine Bluff/SMU Under 125)
Going into yesterday’s Michigan game, I was almost certain that Beilein would slow the pace in order to gain an advantage on Memphis but he didn’t. I think that going in he was a bit scared of his perimeter guards taking care of the basketball with the Memphis pressure defense, so he ran with them for a good majority of the game and actually beat this Memphis team running. Needless to say, I was shocked.
Going into today’s game with Tennessee, I’m not sure how other team rebounds. Memphis was pretty high on itself going into yesterday’s matchup and they got beat by a team who wasn’t as athletic. Today, they play a team that is athletic in what should be a pretty fast up and down environment I would think. I’ve watched both Memphis games in full this year, and aside from the addition of Thomas’ shooting presence, this team is really no different than last year.
The one glaring thing that I see with Memphis so far this year, and this is sort of a thing you can point out when a team thinks they better than they actually are, is that they have looked putrid on the offensive glass. Through two games, they have a total of 11 offensive rebounds. A guard dribble drives, kicks out for three, or they get a decent shot in the half court offense and everyone on the court thinks it’s going in, so no attempt is made at going after an offensive rebound.
There is no reason that they should have less than 5 offensive rebounds in a game against a team that they are clearly more athletic than. Back to today’s game, again, I’m really not sure we get each team’s best effort. These two teams played each other back in January of this year, and Tennessee won 104-84 on their home court. In that game, both teams made just as many shots from long distance as they made inside the arc. Both teams made a combined 34 three-pointers good for an average of 61% for the game. The really weird thing is that the 61% they shot from the perimeter was a full ten percentage points higher than what they combined for at the foul line (51%).
Tennessee will be a slower style of team this year than in past years under Cuonzo, and I can say that with confidence. I can also say with confidence that I doubt this matchup this year, just 10 months later yields the same three-point shooting that the first meeting showed, so the under might be the way to go in this one, especially noting that both teams played pretty big matchups yesterday and not sure they bounce back in the early tilt here with any emphasis on trying to compete.
Is the under risky? Absolutely. Memphis is settling for the outside shot quite a bit, but at the same time, if that shot doesn’t go in, they’re more than likely one and done, back to the defensive end.
Georgetown vs. Chaminade
Continuing yesterday’s trend of figuring out Georgetown, they shot 29% from long distance and lost. With Chaminade, the UCLA bounceback was expected.
I have no interest in playing these two teams less than 24 hours removed from yesterday’s games (for Georgetown, you are talking about a 12-13 period), but two things should hold true: Georgetown should shoot better than 30% from long distance, and Georgetown should own the inside.
South Dakota State vs. Sam Houston State
South Dakota State draws Sam Houston State who has scored 41 and 38 against D-1 competition this year. Sam Houston State is probably a mid-pack Southland team, who competes with teams based solely on their average defense, which in the Southland, is generally good enough to stick with opponents.
I brought up South Dakota State’s offense yesterday being one of the best in the country, and while they started slow, they caught fire in the second half. That should carry over today, and wouldn’t be surprised to see a blowout here. Sam Houston lost the Southland player of the year last year, and brought a bunch of juco’s in this year b/c the last year’s freshman were pitiful.
When a team is full of bottom level juco talent, that teams is almost always missing two things: outside shooting, and foul shooting. And Sam Houston hasn’t showed signs of life from either avenue. What do I expect in this game? Anytime you get all of these juco’s involved against a high scoring and fast tempo team like South Dakota State, you are more than likely going to get some points.
This game should be up and down, despite Sam Houston’s low pace figure, and they should score a bit more than the 41 and 38 they’ve posted against D-1 competition this year.
Niagara @ Mercer
As you evidenced yesterday by Niagara putting up 71 (Niagara’s offense I have rated as one of the worst bottom 40 offenses in the country), South Dakota State’s defense is far from stellar. I’ve pointed out Austin Peay’s lack of offense and preparation time and the dumb scheduling a few times now, so I’m clearly off of them in this tournament.
However, I’m playing them Saturday in their home opener where they have immediate revenge, and draw a Middle Tennessee State team who will be coming off a 2OT home loss to Belmont. Situational Madness Value, or SVM as I like to call it; hope for an 0-6 record going into that one.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. SMU
I’ve expressed the fact that SMU likes to play slower than a snail, and they control tempo in almost every game they are a part of. Now, they draw a team who likes to do the same in Arkansas Pine Bluff, and a team in Arky PB who’s offense is brutal. They scored 58 and won the game yesterday b/c Florida International’s defense is awful, as I have alluded to before. If FIU can’t get out and run, then their defense looks even worse.
Back to this Arkansas Pine Bluff team, and the 7 units I left on the table for failing to take a shot at the ML yesterday because Kennedy hasn’t been in the lineup (they didn’t need him apparently), they’re a team who scores from the PG spot and rarely gets anything else from the other guard positions. Yesterday, they did, but again, thanks to Isaih Thomas’ lack of defensive principles.
This game should be extremely slow on a back-to-back here, and neither offense is worth a 60spot here, also noting SMU’s focus on interior defense. There is one concern, and that’s both coaches totally flipping the script or being familiar with what the other teams strengths are. Both teams play similar styles on a daily basis in practice, so familiarity might kill some value in the under. Back with the night games in a bit.
Plays: None
Leans: (Sam Houston State/South Dakota State Over 134, Arkansas Pine Bluff/SMU Under 125)
Going into yesterday’s Michigan game, I was almost certain that Beilein would slow the pace in order to gain an advantage on Memphis but he didn’t. I think that going in he was a bit scared of his perimeter guards taking care of the basketball with the Memphis pressure defense, so he ran with them for a good majority of the game and actually beat this Memphis team running. Needless to say, I was shocked.
Going into today’s game with Tennessee, I’m not sure how other team rebounds. Memphis was pretty high on itself going into yesterday’s matchup and they got beat by a team who wasn’t as athletic. Today, they play a team that is athletic in what should be a pretty fast up and down environment I would think. I’ve watched both Memphis games in full this year, and aside from the addition of Thomas’ shooting presence, this team is really no different than last year.
The one glaring thing that I see with Memphis so far this year, and this is sort of a thing you can point out when a team thinks they better than they actually are, is that they have looked putrid on the offensive glass. Through two games, they have a total of 11 offensive rebounds. A guard dribble drives, kicks out for three, or they get a decent shot in the half court offense and everyone on the court thinks it’s going in, so no attempt is made at going after an offensive rebound.
There is no reason that they should have less than 5 offensive rebounds in a game against a team that they are clearly more athletic than. Back to today’s game, again, I’m really not sure we get each team’s best effort. These two teams played each other back in January of this year, and Tennessee won 104-84 on their home court. In that game, both teams made just as many shots from long distance as they made inside the arc. Both teams made a combined 34 three-pointers good for an average of 61% for the game. The really weird thing is that the 61% they shot from the perimeter was a full ten percentage points higher than what they combined for at the foul line (51%).
Tennessee will be a slower style of team this year than in past years under Cuonzo, and I can say that with confidence. I can also say with confidence that I doubt this matchup this year, just 10 months later yields the same three-point shooting that the first meeting showed, so the under might be the way to go in this one, especially noting that both teams played pretty big matchups yesterday and not sure they bounce back in the early tilt here with any emphasis on trying to compete.
Is the under risky? Absolutely. Memphis is settling for the outside shot quite a bit, but at the same time, if that shot doesn’t go in, they’re more than likely one and done, back to the defensive end.
Georgetown vs. Chaminade
Continuing yesterday’s trend of figuring out Georgetown, they shot 29% from long distance and lost. With Chaminade, the UCLA bounceback was expected.
I have no interest in playing these two teams less than 24 hours removed from yesterday’s games (for Georgetown, you are talking about a 12-13 period), but two things should hold true: Georgetown should shoot better than 30% from long distance, and Georgetown should own the inside.
South Dakota State vs. Sam Houston State
South Dakota State draws Sam Houston State who has scored 41 and 38 against D-1 competition this year. Sam Houston State is probably a mid-pack Southland team, who competes with teams based solely on their average defense, which in the Southland, is generally good enough to stick with opponents.
I brought up South Dakota State’s offense yesterday being one of the best in the country, and while they started slow, they caught fire in the second half. That should carry over today, and wouldn’t be surprised to see a blowout here. Sam Houston lost the Southland player of the year last year, and brought a bunch of juco’s in this year b/c the last year’s freshman were pitiful.
When a team is full of bottom level juco talent, that teams is almost always missing two things: outside shooting, and foul shooting. And Sam Houston hasn’t showed signs of life from either avenue. What do I expect in this game? Anytime you get all of these juco’s involved against a high scoring and fast tempo team like South Dakota State, you are more than likely going to get some points.
This game should be up and down, despite Sam Houston’s low pace figure, and they should score a bit more than the 41 and 38 they’ve posted against D-1 competition this year.
Niagara @ Mercer
As you evidenced yesterday by Niagara putting up 71 (Niagara’s offense I have rated as one of the worst bottom 40 offenses in the country), South Dakota State’s defense is far from stellar. I’ve pointed out Austin Peay’s lack of offense and preparation time and the dumb scheduling a few times now, so I’m clearly off of them in this tournament.
However, I’m playing them Saturday in their home opener where they have immediate revenge, and draw a Middle Tennessee State team who will be coming off a 2OT home loss to Belmont. Situational Madness Value, or SVM as I like to call it; hope for an 0-6 record going into that one.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. SMU
I’ve expressed the fact that SMU likes to play slower than a snail, and they control tempo in almost every game they are a part of. Now, they draw a team who likes to do the same in Arkansas Pine Bluff, and a team in Arky PB who’s offense is brutal. They scored 58 and won the game yesterday b/c Florida International’s defense is awful, as I have alluded to before. If FIU can’t get out and run, then their defense looks even worse.
Back to this Arkansas Pine Bluff team, and the 7 units I left on the table for failing to take a shot at the ML yesterday because Kennedy hasn’t been in the lineup (they didn’t need him apparently), they’re a team who scores from the PG spot and rarely gets anything else from the other guard positions. Yesterday, they did, but again, thanks to Isaih Thomas’ lack of defensive principles.
This game should be extremely slow on a back-to-back here, and neither offense is worth a 60spot here, also noting SMU’s focus on interior defense. There is one concern, and that’s both coaches totally flipping the script or being familiar with what the other teams strengths are. Both teams play similar styles on a daily basis in practice, so familiarity might kill some value in the under. Back with the night games in a bit.
Plays: None
Leans: (Sam Houston State/South Dakota State Over 134, Arkansas Pine Bluff/SMU Under 125)
Excellent work yesterday! Any thoughts on Delaware favored with injuries at the G position? I see Cornell being the better team here and should win SU. Thanks for any input you have..always enjoy reading!
Excellent work yesterday! Any thoughts on Delaware favored with injuries at the G position? I see Cornell being the better team here and should win SU. Thanks for any input you have..always enjoy reading!
Night Notes: Yale has a nice situational spot going into Seton Hall, where Seton Hall comes off a tournament loss in the title. If I knew anything about Yale, or Ivy schools, I might take a look. Louisville hasn’t allowed more than 53 points in a game this year, and that more than likely will continue tonight. It looks like they might get a few injured players back for the next game with Ohio, but they won’t play tonight. Kent State has revenge from last year’s 69-66 loss at Cleveland State, a game they led for 35 minutes, and a game they led by 11 at the break. The players have mentioned they want revenge, so the angle is available. Skipping over Florida Atlantic and Hofstra here. I have talked enough about each school, and I will give FAU an advantage here with experience, and I am a bit scary to invest in a team coming off a big OT win and then going on the road. Have a feeling I’ll be kicking myself after this one, but it is what it is. FAU’s already beaten two CAA schools, and when FAU slows the tempo in this one (something Hofstra has yet to see this year), FAU has a really, really good advantage defensively. The Hofstra guards need to get out and go to score, I don’t think they can score in the half court without forcing bad shots. Again, scary-risky but they won here last year despite giving up 32 to Jenkins, no reason to think they can’t walk into familiar territory and win again. Combine Hofstra’s bad shot selection with FAU’s discipline defense, and I think the more experienced squad gets the win here. I would probably take a stab at Pitt if I believed in double digit chalk. For the better part of a week, they’ve had to listen to all the hoopla about Long Beach State. Lost in all that shuffle is the fact that this Pitt offense is currently the best in the country and they draw a LaSalle squad that has a defense that allowed every single team to score 70 last year in the non-conference if you throw out #309 Delaware State and #313 Binghamton. Pretty safe to say that Pitt should bounce back in a convincing fashion, especially if this one is up and down like LaSalle likes to play. Marshall hits the road for the first time against NC Wilmington, who has a pretty bad offense (as expected with lack of shooters on a Buzz Peterson coached team along with the loss of Tomko). UAB is 0-2, and has played two pretty decent defensive clubs to start the season. They get a break tonight welcoming a Troy team who can’t guard a lineup of second graders. Curious to see what UAB does here, and they should win, but if they choose to run with Troy, they’re playing with fire with the lack of offense they bring to the table. UAB comes back down to earth Friday at Wichita. The job that Leon Rice has done with the Boise State basketball program is remarkable. He completely turned around the team last year, and that momentum it looks like has carried over into this year. They have a bit of revenge here going on the road from a game last year that ended in a 69-66 defeat, a game that came right before a lookahead to a game at UNLV that ended in a 3 point defeat. This team was in every game in played last year, outside of the three meetings with Utah State. Rice prepares well, but he did lose quite a few seniors. I think this team has value, but at this point in the season, it’s a bit early to take a stab on the road against a team that’s looking to rebound after a letdown loss. Long Beach State’s next five games: At Montana, At Louisville, At Kansas, At North Carolina, At Xavier. Michigan and Duke is the type of game I will enjoy watching rather than making a play here. Michigan has revenge from last year’s NCAA tourney game, so that’s the side I would probably lean in terms of value. They seemed really, really, and I mean, really ready to go against Memphis yesterday and Beilein had that game planned perfectly. I’m just scared yesterday was put all of your cookies in a basket type of game, and the short turnaround might be a cause for concern. Michigan is shooting 64% from inside the arc an ABSURDLY high number for this type of offense. Just imagine this team when it starts shooting a higher percentage from the perimeter (four games this year 30%, 32%, 35%, and 25%). Could this be the game they rely on the three-point shot? They’re going to have to with Duke’s interior defense, also noting Duke will be crashing the offensive glass, unlike any of Michigan’s previous opponents this year. Two things I’m looking for coming out of this one: How high up the floor does Duke pressure Michigan’s guards (I think if they’re smart, they pick up pressure at the half court and take them out of their offense)? And does Michigan have a weakness rebounding the ball defensively? Hopefully last night’s game is what gets UCLA going. I’m still not high on Kansas at all. Anyone remember this UCLA/Kansas matchup last year. Game tied at 76, Kansas comes down loses the ball throws up a garbage shot falling over with less than a second and refs call a foul? Kansas wins 77-76. Think UCLA forgets that? From a matchup standpoint, Howland’s going to try his best to take out Taylor, as he’s always been the type to take out the best player rather than defend the others...
Night Notes: Yale has a nice situational spot going into Seton Hall, where Seton Hall comes off a tournament loss in the title. If I knew anything about Yale, or Ivy schools, I might take a look. Louisville hasn’t allowed more than 53 points in a game this year, and that more than likely will continue tonight. It looks like they might get a few injured players back for the next game with Ohio, but they won’t play tonight. Kent State has revenge from last year’s 69-66 loss at Cleveland State, a game they led for 35 minutes, and a game they led by 11 at the break. The players have mentioned they want revenge, so the angle is available. Skipping over Florida Atlantic and Hofstra here. I have talked enough about each school, and I will give FAU an advantage here with experience, and I am a bit scary to invest in a team coming off a big OT win and then going on the road. Have a feeling I’ll be kicking myself after this one, but it is what it is. FAU’s already beaten two CAA schools, and when FAU slows the tempo in this one (something Hofstra has yet to see this year), FAU has a really, really good advantage defensively. The Hofstra guards need to get out and go to score, I don’t think they can score in the half court without forcing bad shots. Again, scary-risky but they won here last year despite giving up 32 to Jenkins, no reason to think they can’t walk into familiar territory and win again. Combine Hofstra’s bad shot selection with FAU’s discipline defense, and I think the more experienced squad gets the win here. I would probably take a stab at Pitt if I believed in double digit chalk. For the better part of a week, they’ve had to listen to all the hoopla about Long Beach State. Lost in all that shuffle is the fact that this Pitt offense is currently the best in the country and they draw a LaSalle squad that has a defense that allowed every single team to score 70 last year in the non-conference if you throw out #309 Delaware State and #313 Binghamton. Pretty safe to say that Pitt should bounce back in a convincing fashion, especially if this one is up and down like LaSalle likes to play. Marshall hits the road for the first time against NC Wilmington, who has a pretty bad offense (as expected with lack of shooters on a Buzz Peterson coached team along with the loss of Tomko). UAB is 0-2, and has played two pretty decent defensive clubs to start the season. They get a break tonight welcoming a Troy team who can’t guard a lineup of second graders. Curious to see what UAB does here, and they should win, but if they choose to run with Troy, they’re playing with fire with the lack of offense they bring to the table. UAB comes back down to earth Friday at Wichita. The job that Leon Rice has done with the Boise State basketball program is remarkable. He completely turned around the team last year, and that momentum it looks like has carried over into this year. They have a bit of revenge here going on the road from a game last year that ended in a 69-66 defeat, a game that came right before a lookahead to a game at UNLV that ended in a 3 point defeat. This team was in every game in played last year, outside of the three meetings with Utah State. Rice prepares well, but he did lose quite a few seniors. I think this team has value, but at this point in the season, it’s a bit early to take a stab on the road against a team that’s looking to rebound after a letdown loss. Long Beach State’s next five games: At Montana, At Louisville, At Kansas, At North Carolina, At Xavier. Michigan and Duke is the type of game I will enjoy watching rather than making a play here. Michigan has revenge from last year’s NCAA tourney game, so that’s the side I would probably lean in terms of value. They seemed really, really, and I mean, really ready to go against Memphis yesterday and Beilein had that game planned perfectly. I’m just scared yesterday was put all of your cookies in a basket type of game, and the short turnaround might be a cause for concern. Michigan is shooting 64% from inside the arc an ABSURDLY high number for this type of offense. Just imagine this team when it starts shooting a higher percentage from the perimeter (four games this year 30%, 32%, 35%, and 25%). Could this be the game they rely on the three-point shot? They’re going to have to with Duke’s interior defense, also noting Duke will be crashing the offensive glass, unlike any of Michigan’s previous opponents this year. Two things I’m looking for coming out of this one: How high up the floor does Duke pressure Michigan’s guards (I think if they’re smart, they pick up pressure at the half court and take them out of their offense)? And does Michigan have a weakness rebounding the ball defensively? Hopefully last night’s game is what gets UCLA going. I’m still not high on Kansas at all. Anyone remember this UCLA/Kansas matchup last year. Game tied at 76, Kansas comes down loses the ball throws up a garbage shot falling over with less than a second and refs call a foul? Kansas wins 77-76. Think UCLA forgets that? From a matchup standpoint, Howland’s going to try his best to take out Taylor, as he’s always been the type to take out the best player rather than defend the others...
...The UCLA strength is probably defense, more-so defending the paint with all the size they bring to the table. Yesterday, I pointed out the ugly losses and why they lost those games (unreal 3-point shooting from opponents), so if Kansas catches fire from long distance then this one is toast quick, but I just haven’t seen anything from Kansas that leads me to believe they are capable of consistently knocking down the outside shot. Playing on a back-to-back here favors UCLA in a slight fashion. They were able to iron out some kinks from the early season struggles against a pretty bad Chaminade squad while Kansas had to face Georgetown in the opener, which would have been their second straight game against a top 50 defense. Today marks game #3 facing a top 50, so as long as the UCLA offense can get into some sets and slow this one down to take Taylor out of the game, they should have a shot here. As is the case with Austin Peay yesterday, I think Detroit is a much better basketball team than Bowling Green. But why go against the host school in Bowling Green in this one? These kids get to sleep in their own beds at night, go about their normal routine, even if they are playing on a back-to-back. Detroit’s loss yesterday was strictly a result of George Washington’s defense. I have Detroit’s offense and defense a full 75 spots better than Bowling Green, but the outside factors are just not worth the risk here on the road. I feel bad for those who purchased tickets with hopes of getting an offensive explosion (second game is Illinois/Richmond). Rutgers is coming off a snail in Hampton, so they’ll be ready for this one. Illinois State on the other hand, should be one of the slowest teams in the country yet again. What’s even more interesting is that Illinois State is coming off two offensive performances of 68 and 78, and while that seems decent, those two offensive performances came against two of the fastest up-tempo teams in the country. I’ve said it before, the only offense Illinois State is going to get will come from the interior, and a decent chunk of that is taken away with Rutgers’ interior defense here. Neither team can score from the outside, and both play slow, this one should put people to sleep. I’m not touching the Illinois/Richmond game due to a few rules in place, but this one should have a lack of offense as well. Illinois has not looked all that great offensively, as they have people playing out of position and they just don’t have a go-to scorer outside of an offensive set. They will stay in just about every game b/c of their defense (assuming Leonard stays out of foul trouble). Richmond is sort of in the same boat, missing offensive pieces from last year, Princeton offense, grind it out defense. No reason this game goes over, but I will point out one thing. In Bruce Weber’s press conference last year, he told his team to raise their hand if they knew what the Princeton offense was, and not a single person raised a hand. That’s about the only concern I have with Illinois, as they’ve never faced this style of offense with this group. No interest in Georgia games or how Notre Dame rebounds. Cal/Mizzou should be a very good game in terms of entertainment value. What Cal has done thus far this year has been impressive to say the least (faced what I project to be three top 100 defenses so far and destroyed every one of them). Missouri on the other hand has not faced even close to the caliber of defense that Cal brings in here, in fact, they’ve yet to face a top 100. Missouri’s offense has looked good, but a slightly new offensive system under Haith should get tested for the first time tonight. In a back-to-back setting, the team that’s already faced a few stints of competition should outweigh the team that hasn’t. In addition to that, this group of players from Missouri has always struggled against stiff in your face defense. Check out how they ended last season: Cincy (lost by 15), Texas A&M (lost by 15), Kansas (lost by 4), Nebraska (lost by 11), and Kansas State (lost by 10). Now they did get a win over Texas Tech in the conference tournament, but I didn’t list them b/c they weren’t a top 50 defense. Even by bringing Haith in here, I would not expect those struggles to change. I should get two totally different Florida International and Oral Roberts offenses tonight. Both played snails last night in low scoring ballgames, so the eagerness to run and run often should be present from the start. Again, continuing the theme of Isaih Thomas coached teams, very little defense is played. Oral Roberts is scoring an average of 77 if you take out yesterday’s snailbiter with SMU. No reason they go over that in what will be their easiest offensive test to date. Both teams play snails again tomorrow, not a single reason either team slows down here. I think the # is a bit high with Georgia State and Samford total, but there is two pretty important keys to some points being put up here. First, Georgia State’s ugly juco style of offense should look decent against a pitiful Samford defense. Second, Georgia State’s ugly juco style of defense will more than likely be lost trying to defend the Samford continuity and backdoor cuts. Don’t let last year’s meeting with 112 points in regulation before OT concern you; Georgia State’s best defense was fouling Samford and Georgia State shot an absurdly low percentage from the field. I watched that game and my eyes bled. The pace won’t be there, but the opportunity to score will be plenty. Elon hits the road for the first time since the home victory over a BCS school for the first time in the history of their program. Sounds like a good time to fall flat on their face. Does Tennessee State carry momentum from a win at South Carolina just two days ago into North Carolina? Or do they fall flat on their face? I don’t know why, but this spot seems like a nice spot to carry some momentum. UNC’s allowed 75 points two games in a row to what I feel is two lesser talented offensive teams than what Tennessee State brings in here. Barring a hangover, the 28 is a weeeee bit too much. I like Bradley, but I’m not laying chalk on a team that’s had success and grabs Wisconsin Friday.
1* Florida Atlantic +3
1* UCLA +8.5
1* Cal +2.5
1* Illinois State/Rutgers Under 125
1* Florida International/Oral Roberts over 142.5
Leans: (Pitt -15, Illinois/Richmond Under 126.5, Richmond +6.5, Georgia State/Samford Over 126, Tennessee State +28, UCLA/Kansas Under 140)
...The UCLA strength is probably defense, more-so defending the paint with all the size they bring to the table. Yesterday, I pointed out the ugly losses and why they lost those games (unreal 3-point shooting from opponents), so if Kansas catches fire from long distance then this one is toast quick, but I just haven’t seen anything from Kansas that leads me to believe they are capable of consistently knocking down the outside shot. Playing on a back-to-back here favors UCLA in a slight fashion. They were able to iron out some kinks from the early season struggles against a pretty bad Chaminade squad while Kansas had to face Georgetown in the opener, which would have been their second straight game against a top 50 defense. Today marks game #3 facing a top 50, so as long as the UCLA offense can get into some sets and slow this one down to take Taylor out of the game, they should have a shot here. As is the case with Austin Peay yesterday, I think Detroit is a much better basketball team than Bowling Green. But why go against the host school in Bowling Green in this one? These kids get to sleep in their own beds at night, go about their normal routine, even if they are playing on a back-to-back. Detroit’s loss yesterday was strictly a result of George Washington’s defense. I have Detroit’s offense and defense a full 75 spots better than Bowling Green, but the outside factors are just not worth the risk here on the road. I feel bad for those who purchased tickets with hopes of getting an offensive explosion (second game is Illinois/Richmond). Rutgers is coming off a snail in Hampton, so they’ll be ready for this one. Illinois State on the other hand, should be one of the slowest teams in the country yet again. What’s even more interesting is that Illinois State is coming off two offensive performances of 68 and 78, and while that seems decent, those two offensive performances came against two of the fastest up-tempo teams in the country. I’ve said it before, the only offense Illinois State is going to get will come from the interior, and a decent chunk of that is taken away with Rutgers’ interior defense here. Neither team can score from the outside, and both play slow, this one should put people to sleep. I’m not touching the Illinois/Richmond game due to a few rules in place, but this one should have a lack of offense as well. Illinois has not looked all that great offensively, as they have people playing out of position and they just don’t have a go-to scorer outside of an offensive set. They will stay in just about every game b/c of their defense (assuming Leonard stays out of foul trouble). Richmond is sort of in the same boat, missing offensive pieces from last year, Princeton offense, grind it out defense. No reason this game goes over, but I will point out one thing. In Bruce Weber’s press conference last year, he told his team to raise their hand if they knew what the Princeton offense was, and not a single person raised a hand. That’s about the only concern I have with Illinois, as they’ve never faced this style of offense with this group. No interest in Georgia games or how Notre Dame rebounds. Cal/Mizzou should be a very good game in terms of entertainment value. What Cal has done thus far this year has been impressive to say the least (faced what I project to be three top 100 defenses so far and destroyed every one of them). Missouri on the other hand has not faced even close to the caliber of defense that Cal brings in here, in fact, they’ve yet to face a top 100. Missouri’s offense has looked good, but a slightly new offensive system under Haith should get tested for the first time tonight. In a back-to-back setting, the team that’s already faced a few stints of competition should outweigh the team that hasn’t. In addition to that, this group of players from Missouri has always struggled against stiff in your face defense. Check out how they ended last season: Cincy (lost by 15), Texas A&M (lost by 15), Kansas (lost by 4), Nebraska (lost by 11), and Kansas State (lost by 10). Now they did get a win over Texas Tech in the conference tournament, but I didn’t list them b/c they weren’t a top 50 defense. Even by bringing Haith in here, I would not expect those struggles to change. I should get two totally different Florida International and Oral Roberts offenses tonight. Both played snails last night in low scoring ballgames, so the eagerness to run and run often should be present from the start. Again, continuing the theme of Isaih Thomas coached teams, very little defense is played. Oral Roberts is scoring an average of 77 if you take out yesterday’s snailbiter with SMU. No reason they go over that in what will be their easiest offensive test to date. Both teams play snails again tomorrow, not a single reason either team slows down here. I think the # is a bit high with Georgia State and Samford total, but there is two pretty important keys to some points being put up here. First, Georgia State’s ugly juco style of offense should look decent against a pitiful Samford defense. Second, Georgia State’s ugly juco style of defense will more than likely be lost trying to defend the Samford continuity and backdoor cuts. Don’t let last year’s meeting with 112 points in regulation before OT concern you; Georgia State’s best defense was fouling Samford and Georgia State shot an absurdly low percentage from the field. I watched that game and my eyes bled. The pace won’t be there, but the opportunity to score will be plenty. Elon hits the road for the first time since the home victory over a BCS school for the first time in the history of their program. Sounds like a good time to fall flat on their face. Does Tennessee State carry momentum from a win at South Carolina just two days ago into North Carolina? Or do they fall flat on their face? I don’t know why, but this spot seems like a nice spot to carry some momentum. UNC’s allowed 75 points two games in a row to what I feel is two lesser talented offensive teams than what Tennessee State brings in here. Barring a hangover, the 28 is a weeeee bit too much. I like Bradley, but I’m not laying chalk on a team that’s had success and grabs Wisconsin Friday.
1* Florida Atlantic +3
1* UCLA +8.5
1* Cal +2.5
1* Illinois State/Rutgers Under 125
1* Florida International/Oral Roberts over 142.5
Leans: (Pitt -15, Illinois/Richmond Under 126.5, Richmond +6.5, Georgia State/Samford Over 126, Tennessee State +28, UCLA/Kansas Under 140)
NR, SMU total 118 is that to low ? Big move Also any feel on the Louisville game tonight ? Thanks Tom
I would still lean at 118. As for Louisville, I think Arky State's defense will slow them down a bit, just a matter of if they can score on Louisville at all. Would probably take a shot at Arky State, but the better shot might be the under. Both are high risk, low reward. Ugly game.
NR, SMU total 118 is that to low ? Big move Also any feel on the Louisville game tonight ? Thanks Tom
I would still lean at 118. As for Louisville, I think Arky State's defense will slow them down a bit, just a matter of if they can score on Louisville at all. Would probably take a shot at Arky State, but the better shot might be the under. Both are high risk, low reward. Ugly game.
Excellent work yesterday! Any thoughts on Delaware favored with injuries at the G position? I see Cornell being the better team here and should win SU. Thanks for any input you have..always enjoy reading!
I think those guards from Delaware will play tonight, but I sort of feel the same as you. I think Cornell's better, but I don't dabble in the Ivy stuff. Delaware's a weird team this year. Saddler's going to shoot a lot, and they're really young and filled in with role players. Defensively, they'll be really good. Offensively, their wins and losses are going to depend quite a bit on the role players. Reason they stuck with Villanova was b/c those role players hit some key shots. I watched that game in full. This Delaware team will be a CAA contender in a few years, just not sure how fast they catch on in terms of this year. I think they'll do alright at the beginning, then take some lumps towards the end as the youngsters tire down. Team on my radar - that's for sure. Would lean Cornell tonight though.
Excellent work yesterday! Any thoughts on Delaware favored with injuries at the G position? I see Cornell being the better team here and should win SU. Thanks for any input you have..always enjoy reading!
I think those guards from Delaware will play tonight, but I sort of feel the same as you. I think Cornell's better, but I don't dabble in the Ivy stuff. Delaware's a weird team this year. Saddler's going to shoot a lot, and they're really young and filled in with role players. Defensively, they'll be really good. Offensively, their wins and losses are going to depend quite a bit on the role players. Reason they stuck with Villanova was b/c those role players hit some key shots. I watched that game in full. This Delaware team will be a CAA contender in a few years, just not sure how fast they catch on in terms of this year. I think they'll do alright at the beginning, then take some lumps towards the end as the youngsters tire down. Team on my radar - that's for sure. Would lean Cornell tonight though.
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