Sides: 66-60, -7.7
Totals: 58-38, +17.90
DNP: 96-82
Rough spot for both teams really in Miami and not sure either one of them is going to show up. Georgia Tech’s looked like an entirely different team on the road than at home, and now they’re coming off a home game they thought they had a good chance of winning. Not sure how they bounce back from that. As for Miami FL, they thought they could turn the ACC season around going into the home game with UNC and they failed in not only that game, but went to Virginia Tech and put up a strong fight late in a game they really would have been blown out in if they hadn’t shot it so well from long distance late. I just can’t see how Miami FL gets up for a team like Georgia Tech after coming off two better teams, having two lesser ahead of them, and then a big date with Duke. Would lean over here, but scared of Georgia Tech offense on road and both teams being flat. I like Ohio State’s chances quite a bit in this meeting. The Michigan defense is really going to allow Ohio State to get up any shot they want at any point in the game. The Michigan defense has been decent, but this style of sitting back and allowing shot attempts doesn’t bode well here. On the offensive side of the ball for Michigan, I’m just not sure how they’re going to score. I would probably lean under b/c Ohio State matches up extremely well defensively, and their defense has been amazing to this point. Michigan’s coming off two big wins, and their highest point total offensively of the year. Safe to say they are flat offensively tonight, and the defensive matchups make it an even flatter night. The first meeting this year only saw 88 shot attempts, and both teams shot it at a 52% clip. I expect more shots, but I don’t expect Michigan to shoot it as well as they did there. In fact, over half of Michigan’s shot attempts came from beyond the arc in that game. If they aren’t falling on the road (first meeting was played at home), then this game is probably over pretty quick as they don’t have another source of offense. CSU has Butler on deck, but I think they’ll put up a good effort considering Valpo’s tied for the conference lead. This is a pretty rough stretch for Cleveland State with three games against Valpo/Butler/Detroit that will be played in a six day period ending on Monday. Cleveland State has revenge from a six point loss in which they only shot 37% and a mere 18% from long distance. That Valpo loss also came on the heels of the end of a two game roady in which the first loss was an embarrassing one in a nationally televised Friday night game at Butler. They only had one day to prepare for a Sunday afternooner at Valpo, and here they’ll have the greater majority of a full week to do so. They should shoot it better, and I think the pace will be up there. CSU doesn’t mind running and they’ll probably look to do more of it considering Valpo’s coming off two close ballgames, one of which went into OT and would be considered a pretty good program win over Butler. I think Cleveland State takes care of business here. Butler’s coming off two overtime losses, and the cure for that is a meeting with Youngstown State’s defense and tempo. Butler’s offense has been good, but they haven’t been able to stop opposing offenses that pose a threat from the guard position (all four conference losses come to teams with good guards). I realize Youngstown State played Butler close in the first meeting, but that also came on the heels of Butler beating the piss outta Cleveland State. They get CSU on deck, so again a bit of hesitation in backing the road team, but I think Butler gets it done. They’ve averaged a shooting percentage over 50% against this awful defense the past few years, and the only thing that’s going to stop them from doing so again is a lookahead, because this game should be played at a fast pace. I wanted to see what this Wright State team had on the four-game road trip, so I was able to see a little bit of their action, as I think they’re going to have a pretty strong shot at the Horizon tourney. They not only score from the guard position at any spot on the floor, but they have two of the best defensive guards in the league in Evans and Duggins. With that said, I came away with one thing from the roadtrip, and that’s that this team is wore out. The defense has been flat out outstanding, holding opponents for six or seven minute stretches without a single point. But that has transformed over to the offensive side of the ball, tired legs, and poor shooting. Along with that, they’ve been hit with some injuries, and this isn’t the type of team that has the depth to overcome that. They still have options, but teams that are tired generally get no help from the bench. I’ve mentioned this before this year, but in two years, this Loyola CHI team is probably going to have the exact makeup of Wright State and probably be even better. They are just as talented, they have worked on their defense and become better, and they have the guards to mirror Evans and Duggins in both makeup and agility. A few weeks ago I played the over 126 in the previous matchup and they failed to get to 99. I’m not sure this game will be played any differently, but Loyola CHI should score more than 41. Wright coming off the road trip helps, and if Loyola recognizes the depth issues, then they’re going to push and have a good shot at an outright here. Experience trumps everything in close games, so I’m not sure it’s worth it, but I will more than likely be playing the points. Illinois CHI/Detroit Pass. Lean over, but not worth trusting the UIC offense coming off its highest point total of the season. UL Monroe has lost four straight games against four of the worst defenses in the conference, and now gets two of the best on these next two road games. I was extremely high on Midd Tenn State coming into the year and they failed me on a few occasions, but they’ve been playing good basketball as of late, outside of the FAU games. Their defensive pressure is probably going to bit a bit too much for a UL Monroe team that needs to slow it down and find rhythm on the offensive end for things to work. If MTSTU decides they don’t mind slowing it down either, then I’m not sure UL Monroe sniffs 50...