SHIRLEY'S TOURNEY LINES FOR ALL TO SEE (AND COMMENTS).

It's nice to see my numbers (4/3 yearly wagering method) crushing the spread in 2 ongoing games. Althogh these games are not over by any means.

Florida is dominating (4.50 favorite differential) and

UCONN (7.00 favorite differential) is up by 17 at halftime.

One thing I will share with the readers of my posts, and a very important factor for this tournament:

Pay special attention to how each conference does in relation to my projected line and the books line. Tweek the numbers a bit, and use MEDIANS, not averages to make your adjustments.

For instance, at this exact point in time, I have mentally and quantifiably moved the Big East conference up another 1.5 points or so. This adjustment will continue until the end of the tourney.

I am watching the Wisc game closely (because we have it as a 4/3 favorite play), and because I am pesonally interested in the Michigan and Illinois games.

This handicapping game is constantly changing, and the necessary adjustments that you make, perhaps even minutes before the books make theirs, can help you take down a wager, or omit a game that you selected earlier.

Shirley

The above moronic post makes it a necessity for the covers staff to allow the author of threads the ability to eliminate unwanted posts.

Shirley

BE2WINN

DRIFTER44

Drifter, about your UNLV-ILL Game. Since there were games today, we are using the results of the contests, and making adustments, to fine tune our base numbers. We did this for the Cinn-Mizz game prior to game time (as mentioned above), and moved our line 1.8 points towards the Cinn side.

Why? The reason was because the BIG BEAST had crushed the spread in 3 of the four games played prior to Cinn taking the floor, UCONN, WVA and PITT all handily covered the spread, and by a decent amount, thus the adjustment. Louisville lost to the spread, so they dragged the conference down a bit, but not enough to give the BIG BEAST a higher rating,  After we made the adjustment, it knocked Mizz out of the picture. Personally, I saved 1.1 unit, which made my night,

Similarly, after the adjustments for the Big 10 and the WAC came in, we are adjusting 1.20  points in favor of UNLV. It's not a lot, but its enough to get me to lay off of the game. That's fine with me. The fewer wagers I make during tourney time, the better. When I make a play, I'm positive about getting much the best of it, although perhaps this is a bit of a conservative approach, and not one to maximize wealth.

For all of the hours we spend handicapping and making adjustments, etc, I probably have the lowest fractional ratio of WAGERS DIVIDED BY HOURS SPENT HANDICAPPING on tournament games of anyone on the covers site!

Yesterday, I only made 2 plays: Penn State +3, +2.5 and over  75 2H SJ-Gonzaga. I knew both were outstanding plays, and I also believed that both were large advantage plays.

The UNLV-ILL game at +2.5 is currently a no play for me. Others can play this game, and in the long run they might do OK, but I'm staying away.

Incidentally, the adjusment I made for the Big 10 conference was +.50 points, based off of games played today. The WAC did even better, chiming in with an adjustment of 1.70 points in their favor. The delta is 1.20 points in favor of UNLV.

I allude to all of this without the particular details in post 26 within this thread. Good luck with your Rebels.

Shirley

Todays results using the 4/3 yearly wagering method were 6-3. If you were astute enough to knock out Mizzou, because of the information mentioned above, it could have been even better.

All games with a 3 point or more difference from my line were 7-3. So far, I am happy with the results (although I NEVER play the result), and the ability to provide members on this site with a supplemental tool during the tournament. I hope to be back on Saturday.

Shirley

I have read the lines that are out and the lines that you have, but I am still unsure about how to use your info.

For example:

I have Memphis @ +5.5 and you have Arizona @ 7. Does this mean that Arizona is your play?

The differential is 1.5. Does that make this a play or would you prefer the differential to be 3?

Thanks for your time.

Quote Originally Posted by gatorbear:

Shirley,

That is good stuff. I went over your #'s vs. those posted and came up with 3 plays that fit your criteria. Let me know if I am accurate. Thanks & FL.  Michigan +1.5, Duke -23, & Illinois +2.5. As well as over 75.5 in 1H of UNC game.   

Gatorbear

You did everything correctly. A favorite has to have a 4 point difference from my line to be a play, and with an underdog, edges begin at 3 points, and of course (theoretically) the advantage increases as the "delta" increases.

Please keep in mind when betting my "raw" numbers, they have only hit in the 58.85% range in the tournament of 64. The good news is, that after the last 2 days, they are now at exactly at 60%.

My apologies for getting back way late, but I was busy with family all day today, and just returned home about an hour ago. I will discuss all of the details of todays games in this same thread, time permitting.

Shirley

Are you posting new lines? I think I understand how to use them now.

Upside

It is impossible to post updated numbers, because these numbers are ever changing and are indeed dynamic. Sometimes we only have minutes before our final adjustments are made, and to post these adjustments, on this or any other site, would require a level of committment that is nearly impossible. My partner barely has time to shop the lines and to place his wagers, so he wouldn't have time to post on this site . The raw numbers provided should hit in the 58-60% range over the long haul. We have higher expectations between Jan 15- Feb 25 or so.

I was away all day today (and never saw 1 minute of any game (my phone was also off), but I will take you through the process that my partner went through on Friday later in the thread, and you will understand a bit more about what we do during tournament time.

Shirley 

Blue_Chips

I'm glad you understand how it all works. You can always go back and reread any of my previous postings, and this should explain it to you in fine detail.

Shirley

Stretch883  

Boomersooner13  

Congratulations! You are the first person admitting to the knowledge of entropy on this site, and the context in which I use this term. It's reassuring to know that I am not the only math nut wagering on games.

If you wish to "discuss" something, just send me an email through the covers site.  If time permits, I will respond to your inquiries. Please keep in mind that the reponse that you receive will be coming from a person wearing a dunce cap.

Shirley

Blue_Chips

If time permits, I will post lines for Saturday games for all to see! As of 4:42 EDT, our lines are incomplete, and will take at least a few more hours more of "work", and adjustments, before we reach our final destination.

Sparticus

The lines for previous games do in no way predict the lines for future events. So, there is no way that you can use my predictions for Th/Fr games to predict Saturday or Sunday games.

My suggestion to you (if you have the time) is to see how each conference has done straight up and vs the spread, and vs my line. Take the MIDPOINT (median) result (NOT THE AVERAGE), and use this information to make intelligent decisions about upcoming games. This should put you one up on the competition, and perhaps even the linesmakers, as they have been slow at times to react to this somewhat dynamic information.

You can also see how each of these teams ranked within the hierarchy of their respective conferences. This will give you an even "truer" picture of the conference, and its strength or weakness.

Of course when we do all of this with a computer, we adjust for level of competition, etc. However, this will open your eyes into a key ingredient into handicapping the tourney of 64. Remember what I said earlier, it's a tournament of matchups and subjective analysis. Other folks on this site have this talent to subjectively analyze a game. Combine this with my numbers, and hopefully, you will have a profitable tourney. Best of luck.

Shirley