SHIRLEY'S TOURNEY LINES FOR ALL TO SEE (AND COMMENTS).

Thank you everyone for your continued support. At my last posting we had 1 possible play with a difference of 3.70 (UCLA +8), which was a winner. So, for all of you record keepers out there, this is the breakdown:

Overall covers record:       61.37%
College Basketball sides:  59-26  (69.41%)
Recent form:                     2-6
Very recent form:              1-0

I would say my recent form is very unimpressive. Keep this in mind, if you decide to use my numbers in conjunction with your handicapping skills, to make a wager in the tourney.

I will provide a reason that we have to be especially sharp this time of the year to gain an advantage over the books. After analyzing hundreds of games from this season, I can make the following disturbing statement:

1) THE BOOKIES LINES ARE APPROXIMATELY 1/2 POINT SHARPER THAT THEY WERE EARLY IN THE SEASON

2) THE STANDARD DEVIATION OF TEAMS PERFOMANCES ON AVERAGE HAS DIMINSHED BY APPROXIMATELY 1/2 POINT.

What does all of this mean? Well, we could have guessed that the lines were "tighter", no big deal, except that if you didn't improve your assessment of your wager by at least 1/2 point, your going backwards and losing ground to "the man". The fact that the teams are playing within a smaller window in relation to the closing line will result in more games being nailbiters, making each possession more crucial down the stretch.

My methods are extremely successful from approximately Jan 15- Feb 25 or so. This part of the schedule has been quite generous over the last 8 years, and this year was no different. Tune in next year, same time same channel, and I can almost guarantee success within this time frame. The reason is simple. The books have not learned to separate the "noise" from the real stats up to this point, and they are way behind our numbers, no doubt about it.

However, tournament time is unlike no other part of the season. I believe that matchups are more important than numbers, and the ability to recognize these mismatches of players or team styles will separate the astute handicapper from the average Joe. All the while remembering that the lines are tougher to beat. A teams and a coaches motivations and intentions are also of primary concern.

There are a few very good handicappers on this site with these subjective skills, and I suggest that you use them to your advantage. Train69, vegasVandal, ManRam, Countingthedeck, Camby, Gamehunter, Humblepie and others have this special talent. I have omitted several other good 'cappers, my apologies. You know who they are. If you want a Michigan State or Michigan answer, ask Sparty33. He knows the tendencies of both teams, inside and out.

CONTINUED.....................

Before we get to the lines I want to make something perfectly clear. For the final 64, I am not making any selections for record purposes on this site. Does this mean I am not making any wagers? NO, however, I will try to eliminate as many plays as possible and only be left with a few. This tournament is an entity all into its own, with little history and limited data points to use in the prediction process. Subjective analysis is crucial. Historically speaking, underdogs have done well, so I am concentrating on ANY underdog edge that has additional advantages going for the team. That's a good starting point, and I have inserted an asterisk below for games that I am interested in. Conference vs conference history is important and must be weighted heavily as well as recent form. Coaches intentions and looking ahead issues are extremely important. The entire tournament is the equivalent to a busy Saturday, but with much less expectation. It's a time where the excitement makes the hair stand up on your body, but unfortunately, it's not the best time to make money.

My method has hit at a tad over 58%  during the final 64 tournament the previous 8 years. Thus my apprehension to feel extremely comfortable with ANY selection. This includes totals, which are not posted.

My Lines:

West Virginia  2.00
Butler              0.40
Loisville        10.80
Penn State     1.80 **
Ky                 17.40
Pitt                21.20
Vandy            1.40
SDS              20.10
Fla                17.10
BYU               7.10
UCONN        16.90
Wisc               8.80
Mich St          2.20
SJ                  5.60
Mizz               2.70 **
K St               6.40
Tex              12.60
Mich              1.70 **
N D              16.40
Vill                0.90
Az                 7.20
Duke          27.00
T AM            1.50
N C            20.40
Xavier         2.00
Ill                 1.60 **
Wash           3.20
Syr            11.90

As far as bracket predictions, I took Pittsburgh to win the whole tourney, thinking they are one angry team right now. I also took Mizz, Mich, Ill, P State, Butler and Richmond to advance, and a couple of these teams to advance again. I wanted to be opposite the masses in closlely contested games, which is a winning strategy over the long haul.

My favorite game to watch will be NC and Long Island. I have successfully been on a few NC "unders" this year, but I am quite curious to see if they can hit over 158 in this one. They certainly have the license to fly over the number, especially with all of the entropy that will undoubtedly exist towards the end of this game. I'm not sure if I will bet the over on this one though.

Best of luck, and my apologies for posting this information so late.

Shirley

Gratefulvol, remember I believe that matchups are more important this time of the year, than my numbers. If you have any special subjective insight or analysis, you should go with it. However, at the same time, eliminating as many games as possible, is probably a prudent decision.

Personally, I will probably not make more that 6 or 7 wagers over the course of the entire tournament. Something might jump off the pages, perhaps in  a later round. The whole tourney is like a busy Saturday in late January, except the lines are tougher, and the books have the luxury of having time in between games to make the necessary (and usually correct) line adjustments.

Shirley

Even though I will only have 2-4 wagers going Thursday and Friday, the anticipation of these games is keeping me awake. It's truly an incredible time of the year, and in my opinion, the best 2 days in sports.

Greatefulvol   

Blue_Chips       

Shygorilla8082  

Honeyboy          

Forecastin Floyd

Shirley

Orangemen44 

Gamble04     

Gambleo4, yes my wagers will most likely come from the subset of the games with the asterisk, as well as 2 totals. I will only have 4-5 plays over the 2 days.

Orangemen44, in one of my brackets I have Syracuse  in the final game with Pitt.

Shirley

Shakey12381

In North Carolina's first round of tournament action since 2001, they have gone UNDER in the 1H vs Air Force, Princeton and Murray State. Each of these teams has zero pace, as we all well know. All of their other games against normally paced teams went soaring over the 1H total.

This years LIU Brooklyn squad, gets up and down in expeditious fashion, so I am expecing the 1H total to go over the number in this game. At least it should be an entertaining game to watch.

Shirley

Yes, usually we play any favorite that is four points or more from my line, and any dog that is 3 points or more. Since this tournamant in its own gorilla, and history dictates that underdogs are the side to look at in the early rounds, I am suggesting to use my numbers to complement your own handicapping skills.

As stated above, I suggest looking at the games with an asterisk. From this subset, I am choosing my 4 games to wager on, in addition to OVER 1H NC-LIU Brroklyn 1H.

The game that is a problem for us is Illinois. We just aren't thrilled with their recent performances, and we wish to see the results of other big 10 games, which will help us decide whether to wager or not on the Illini. .

Since in previous years our success rate was in the 58%-59% area during the tournament, I am uncomfortable having people wager large amounts of money on these lines alone. My stance for others following my methods is one of conservatism this time of the year, because your edge by using my numbers alone is diminished based on past history. If you want to wait until next year, and bet $10K or even 50K per game from Jan 15- Feb 25, and your bankroll can support this wager, (mathematically) on my sides and totals, I have absolutely no problem with this. I am that confident in my numbers winning at a high enough rate, and your chances of having a winning year will be over 95%.

RutgerRot214

Alapaha

Moo5

Luchers67

Zoopdog7

Jose_Reyes

Shirley

ZonaCats

I guess you are right, if you wagered on every game! However, this is not my suggestion at all. If you had followed my yearly wagering strategy, you would be 2-1 so far. Personally I had Penn State (no surprise there), and nothing else.

Since I am on a crazy schedule, I didn't even see 1 second of the game, which was probably a good thing, given the closeness of final score.

Be careful, and don't wager on too many games. I will update the results with a nice grid later in the tournament.

Shirley

Mr_Knuckles 

Thank you. I know you will use my lines wisely. As I am watching this Florida game, I notice that almost every trip Parsons gets a touch, which is excellent coaching and ball movement by Florida. This will open up the inside game even more for them.

On the other side of the ball, UCSB didn't take an OPEN 3 from the left corner. This is poor coaching, and a mistake that glares out at me, because obviously they are not aware of the excellent risk/reward ratio of this easy shot. They are taking tough 3's, but passed on the gimme, weird.This is just an observation, and in no way a reflection based upon any wager that I made, Florida also seems a little lost offensively inside the paint, with a couple of terrible turnovers.

Shirley