I would think you guys would learn with UVA, but instead all you remember is UMBC. I will try to save you all some money. UVA does win big, but the difference is that a 10 or 12 point win is big when you have the lowest number of possessions per game in the NCAA. That is why if you like Oregon, you take the points and not the money line. UVA flies under the radar every year because they don’t have top 5 recruits producing a non stop highlight reel for ESPN. They win ugly and as a team, and it is not just with defense. Their offense is just as efficient. You would think that a lower number of possessions would produce more variability in the outcome of a game but this has not happened and for good reason. The Cavs are 62-6 the last 2 years playing in the best conference in basketball. They are an astonishing 70% ATS over the same period and are 60% ATS since 2011 (151-100-6, best in college BB) which is basically the start of the Tony Bennett era) What they are doing against the spread is just about as unprecedented as the UMBC loss, so bet against them at your own peril. TB actually said before that game that if you were to design a team to play against the pack line it would essentially be UMBC. 5 quick guards that can shoot (you don’t really have that in the ACC) This was not lost on the selection committee and that’s a shame considering you don’t earn that kind of treatment as an overall number 1 seed. Your odds to win the National championship as an overall #1 should not significantly go down after selection Sunday due to your region but thats what happens with UVA. The success of schools like UVA and Wisc is basically what resulted in the recent rule changes in the NCAA. It will never sell as well as Zion’s 360 dunks or the recent UNC-Duke game that is 50% transition, something UVA doesn’t allow. Anyway my rant is done and hopefully I saved someone else from a 5 unit bet because UVA isn’t done this year.
All of those stats are nice thesmartguy, BUT some of this includes past years teams. Right now Oregon is on a hot SU and ATS run. They've been winning. UVA hasn't covered three of the last five games. So, if using stats, past years stats mean nothing to me. You use ATS pretty heavily. Well, which of the two teams is on the HOT, CURRENT, ATS run?
Granted, I will not be shocked if UVA covers and wins by double digits. They are one heck of a team. But nothing you said would sway me from Oregon if I was leaning that way. Good stuff though, for sure. Without a doubt and awesome that you shared it. 
Probably at stay away game for me, as UVA is UVA and Oregon has been smoking hot so far
BOL on your play Smack
The WORST THING you can do when betting is back a team that plays the same way as the opponent, except at a second or third rate level. That's the case here. I was Oregon in both games so far. But how are they gonna score vs Virginia? They don't have explosive offensive play makers. They got athletic guys who can make plays, but I don't think they're skilled to the point where they can take it to a defense like Virginia. Oregon has been up and down on offense all year. Also, their point guard is a White guy who shoots well, but will have trouble getting his own shot in this game.
On the flip side, Virginia has a ton of guys that can shoot. They got playmakers. Oregon is very solid on D, but that zone always gets neutralized when you play a team that can shoot it from the outside.
Good as Oregon is on defense, Virginia is better. And they're better on offense. Better on both sides of the ball. I think this line is very fair. But I'd take Virginia as I would expect them to lead for most of this game, and if they're not covering at the end the fouling could get the cover. At 6.5, you definitely take Virginia. But the couple extra points make it a little harder.
Comparing Washington .. ucirvine .. wisky.. to uva’s defense and defensive efficientcy is disgusting.. Oregon has no post to bully them inside .. and are a poor 3 shooting team.. teams that can’t shoot don’t win in March minus duke which we saw how that turned out .. should have lost to an average ucf team .. best Oregon can hope for is an off shooting night from uva and they may be fortunate enough to lose by 6-8 points and cover.. uva is in a compete different class and let’s not get confused with Oregon beating up on non tourney worthy teams ..
[Quote: Originally Posted by wmi799]All of those stats are nice thesmartguy, BUT some of this includes past years teams. Right now Oregon is on a hot SU and ATS run.
While some of that ATS % is past teams, the 70% over the last two years is essentially this team, only now they have even more experience. You basically just substitute Shayok for Huff and in doing so you lose a little defense with Huff but gain a better ability to shoot the 3. I would also argue that the past 8 years is still relevant because it is largely the Bennett systems on both offense and defense that have produced these results. Also, we all know about variance in this business. Flip a coin and see how often you get either 1out5 or 4out5. Those kinds of numbers are not "hot'' or "cold" they are just a small sample size. I would say the 70% over the last 70 games means a heck of a lot more than the last 8 games. Not saying recent performance means nothing either. Injuries have in fact been huge for UVA in the past going into march. Last year, it was Deandre Hunter, in the past its been Joe Harris, Justin Anderson, Brogdon, etc. This year they are healthy and this year they remember last year.
"A team’s efficiency margin (i.e., the amount by which it would outscore an average Division I opponent over the course of 100 possessions) is generally a good predictor of wins and losses. Teams that score efficiently and make it hard for their opponents to do so tend to win a lot of games. According to Ken Pomeroy's ratings Virginia has hovered near the Top 5 in adjusted efficiency margin during its recent period of excellence, finishing each of the past five seasons somewhere in the ballpark of +25 to +30 points per 100 possessions. This year, the Cavs have the best margin of any Division I team at an eye-popping +35."
If this team could maintain that efficiency and play at a UNC tempo most games would be won by +30. The reason they don't is because they actually make use the time to ensure this efficiency. Thus the UVA win wont often look as impressive as UNC blowing a team out by 35 but in many ways I would say it is even more impressive considering they are not doing this one and done type talent.
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