Posted:
#276
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November Hoops
Posted:
#278
Quote Originally Posted by thomasfloyd:
Nropp what do you think about UL Monroe and Indiana St? IS arrived in Monroe on Saturday. I found it odd that they arrived early so the travel won't be a problem. Not to mention there might be 100 fans in attendance.
Nropp what do you think about UL Monroe and Indiana St? IS arrived in Monroe on Saturday. I found it odd that they arrived early so the travel won't be a problem. Not to mention there might be 100 fans in attendance.
Nice info. I think Indiana State is the right side, but i'm not the type of guy to lay double digit road chalk. UL Monroe is awful, I touch on it a bit in today's notes.
GL
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Posted:
#280
Indiana State's Lathan is from West Monroe and the AD from Monroe said that there has been more requests from Lathans friends and family for tix than there has been from ULM fans. Knowing the situation down there, I assume he is not joking. Lathan played with Mingo from ULM and Lathan made the comment that he has looked forward more to this game than any other. Just giving my .02
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Posted:
#281
4-2, +0.70
Leans (1-6)
Notes: Northeastern is coming off an overtime win on Friday and is on the tail end of a two game roady. Northeastern will want to get up and down a bit tonight and this year being that they’re a bit more experienced on the offensive side of the ball than last year. Speaking of last year, it was a mess for both teams and I’m not sure how much improvement we see from either side this year. Northeastern use to hang it’s hat on its defense, but it was atrocious last year, due in part to a lot of inexperience and the young players not really knowing how to utilize zone principles on defense. They have an extra year under their belt, so the defense I would think improves a bit this year, but how much a difference I’m not sure. Umass is another team who has struggled offensively, and they have struggled mightily. Their defense is what leads them to additional scores and opportunities, and the offense lacks pure talent. I think they struggle tonight offensively when they play at a slightly faster pace, and against the zone they don’t really have too many outside scorers and/or slashers. No interest in Penn/Temple and the Ivy game. I can say with confidence that I feel that UL Monroe is the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference this year, which can be expected when your squad is banned from postseason play. They run quite a bit of isolation plays, primarily for Fred Brown, who attempted a ton of his teams shots last year. He opened the season by attempting 25% of the teams shots and he shot 2/12. Since transferring over from Kansas State, he’s been awful, despite the large number of shots he has taken. Simply put, they have nobody else that can attempt shots and try to make a game out of it. They redshirted two guys who were supposed to make an impact (Eke, McClellan), so it’s going to be a long year for this offense, noting they scored 38 in the opener. The defense I’m not really expecting much to change for a horrendous season last year as well. They’re still going to be at or near the bottom of all Division 1, so don’t let that second half of the Ole Miss game where they held Ole Miss to 23% from the field scare you. I think it’s more of a “playing down to the ugliness in style” rather than good defense. Ole Miss had the game wrapped up from the start. Indiana State hits the road here for one game before returning home for a couple games that they’ll feature revenge in with Wisconsin GB and Ball State. One more thing to note on this matchup, these two teams will play each other again in December. This Loyola CHI and Kansas State game had a lot more intangibles in last year’s meeting when the two teams played as Loyola had a veteran backcourt and Kansas State’s Jacob Pullen’s Mom worked at Loyola CHI. This year’s matchup really doesn’t bring anything interesting to the table. Loyola starts off the year with four on the road, and this is game #2. I will say it again, Northern Illinois is awful. I really think they have the right coach in place to turn around the defensive side of the ball, but I doubt we see results until year #2 of his tenure...
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Posted:
#282
This lineup that they trot out on a nightly basis features maybe 1 or 2 guys that would start on any other team in Division 1. Montgomery had to beg to get players out. They have zero offense. They are a team to avoid or fade until conference play when they face some equally horrific offenses in the MAC. They might be good for a few unders sprinkled in along the way. Moving to the next game, Towson is probably in a similar position as NIU, but it’s their defense that has been bad. This team could realistically give up an average of 90+ a game to start the year after five games. I doubt Michigan hits the century mark like Kansas did due to a slightly different offensive philosophy, but they’ll embarrass Towson’s defense with the continuity offense. This is a whole new territory for Towson, as they generally haven’t played bigger schools in recent years. Michigan (as is the case with many schools who will play Towson this year) can name their # tonight. The question is, and Beilein is good at this, why show anything when you got a big matchup with Memphis lurking just a week away. This Detroit/Notre Dame game is definitely one of the more watchable games on the slate. Detroit’s played some Big East teams in the past, and while they haven’t won, they’ve been successful in keeping it close, so they have some experience going on the road here in a hostile environment. Mike Brey teams generally don’t play defense, so Detroit should be able to score. ND will be without Abromaitis yet again (first four games he’s out), so ND will have to get some scoring from an outside source if they’re going to want to have a chance at the win. The matchup of McCallum and Atkins should be a good one, as both are off to fast starts. I think the key is which one focuses on defense more, and to answer that, I would have to think Atkins is more worried on stopping McCallum than scoring, which is what he didn’t have to do the other night. I probably give Detroit the upper hand, this is a team that had three players put on the preseason all-conference first team in McCallum, Holman, and Simon. Holman still isn’t on the court, and there is a few things that I just can’t get past in the matchup to make a play. First, Detroit obviously needs more scoring help from McCallum, a tough feat to accomplish on the road. Second, it doesn’t matter who ND puts on the court, they’re going to score. Detroit isn’t all that talented defensively, so ND will score. I think the line favors Detroit, but they’re going to need offensive help to walk out of there with a win. Nevada and UNLV will have been a nice basketball game had Nevada not been flat out embarrassed by Missouri State the other night. They should rebound offensively from a performance where they only made 13 field goals, but they’re also hitting the road against what I feel is a top 10 defense by season’s end in UNLV. Time will tell, I think Nevada is clearly better than what they showed, and not sure this is the right situation to bounce back in. In a rather rare occurrence, Nebraska goes on the road for a non-conference game for the first time since November 2009. What’s interesting that in 2009 they played four non-conference road games, and lost three of them. Their lone win was USC, so that’s the last time they won on the road in a true setting out of conference. They also played USC last year at home, a game they won by 2 points and a game they were being beaten by USC by 13 at the half. So, USC has some revenge here from a game they only attempted two free throws. I lean to Nebraska in this matchup as their offense should be quite a bit better than what USC brings to the table. Defensively, both teams like to play the grind it out style and the game more than likely comes down to which team can get to the line more, and which team can turn it over less. It seems cliché but is more true in the defensive style of a setting. I can’t really muster up the confidence to get down on Nebraska here, but I will make them a lean. From a matchup perspective, Nebraska will be without Almeida who would have been a nice defensive proposition on USC’s big man Dedmon. Cal Irvine and San Jose State will feature two teams that rarely exhibit any defense abilities, and it looks as if both offenses are off to a struggling start that can be expected. San Jose State has a big edge offensively, so they should be able to score here. Northern Iowa and St. Mary’s tipoff at 1am central time. This should be a decent game if UNI can get past the travel and late start time, but I’m not willing to invest that they can. Generally, UNI is a team that needs to score from the outside and St. Mary’s excel’s at stopping your guards. Just a really nice matchup and could have the ability to be a good game, but some outside stuff probably affecting the outcome and/or my interest in taking this game a step further. I have no interest in the NIT Tip Off Regionals outside of the SMU/CSU ballgame. And in that case, CSU has struggled with some pretty slow paced teams, so I’m going to avoid them in a neutral tilt. I have no interest in trying to guess what teams show up for the 3rd day in a row in the World Vision Classic. Florida Atlantic and Washington both looked sluggish to start their game yesterday, as did Portland and Georgia State. Hard to say what happens in game 3 and if defense or offense is affected the most. Both FAU and Georgia State have the offensive talent to make this a run and gun if the defense shows fatigue. UNC Greensboro’s first home game against a team I’ve heard of before doesn’t come until December 5th. Georgetown’s schedules sets up nicely for them. They will have had a week to prepare for each of their next three games. I have no interest in Marist this year, and Columbia is in the Ivy so no interest in that game either. Providence is a team I’m not touching for the duration of the year, just too many question marks. But this game raises some big questions where I can learn from some answers. Cooley fled Fairfield for the Providence job. The Fairfield job was taken over by Sydney Johnson who came from Princeton. This game screams under with those bloodlines and familiarity within the matchups...
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Posted:
#283
...The single greatest thing about a team scoring 37 points just a few days ago is that you are more than likely to get a few points of value in that team’s next game and I think that’s exactly what I’m getting with Tennessee State today. A couple of days ago, I pointed out the losses of Western Kentucky’s big three and how it is going to make a difference in the year this year. Those three played more minutes than any combination of any three in the country last year, and it showed in game one. WKU welcomed Dickerson and McDonald back, but neither is even close to being 100% and I think that can be shown in their combined 2 for 18 shooting performance. It’s tough to think they’ll be a bit closer to full strength just a few days later. Focusing on Western Kentucky, their offense is just lost. I was able to catch a bit of the St. Joe’s game and they looked scared half the time. This is a team that is looking for a leader and nobody has stepped up into that role quite yet. The offense is stagnant, and that leads to minutes without scoring. St. Joseph’s was the more talented team no doubt about it, but the reason they won the game was because they went on two big runs of 18-2 and 13-3. I expect a lot of that to be the story for Western Kentucky this year. When you have a bad offense and very little offensive experience, you need your defense to step up and make some plays, but, the defense has never really been there for McDonald coached ballclubs. Dating back to last season, Western Kentucky has now been down by double digits in 15 of its 17 losses, and they have trailed at the half in a total of 18 games. What once was to be a really good basketball program, is one that’s trying to survive at the current moment. What once was to be a really tough place to play, is not a tough place to play any longer. Again, Coach McDonald voluntarily took a paycut last year of $100,000. Coaches don’t do that kind of thing, unless they’re desperate to keep their job. Now, back to Tennessee State. As I mentioned, they had a rough opener and only scoring 37 points. It doesn’t really mean anything in the grand scheme of things, because that St. Louis team at full strength under the direction of Majerus, is easily one the toughest defenses they will face this year, and something that they had had no experience facing in the past. That’s not their style of basketball at all, and I as I alluded to in a previous note section, they struggle against it. Scoring a low 37 points wasn’t expected, but scoring a low # was. They return a solid core of offense, so they’re really won’t be a question of producing from that standpoint in a faster setting and against a far worse defense. They have guards with experience, and quickness, two things WKU lacks. And they have a solid inside game, which really should only get better with the addition of the big man who came from Indiana. The offense is better and well-rounded and has the ability to put together momentum turning runs at any time, the defense (sad to say) is better, and they have far more depth. Clearly, going on the road for the second straight game after such a physical battle with St. Louis is less than enticing, but the value is on the team looking to rebound from a porous offensive outing. A lot of question marks in Richmond, and Davidson should win the Southern this year based on their offensive firepower. I probably would have taken a look at the -4, but not the -6.5. SIU Edwardsville will struggle to score against Illinois, in fact, SIU-E will struggle to score for the remainder of the year. Key thing about Illinois here is that when the 2nd unit hits the court, they don’t really have any drop off offensively (not necessarily a good thing b/c the first team offense will struggle to score). I am curious to see UCF a bit this year. They should contend in C-USA top half, but the defense might take a bit of a hit. They quit at times last year, disappointing to say the least. Just the one game tonight, and a lean.
1* Tennessee State +2.5
Leans: (Nebraska -1)
GL
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Posted:
#285
Quote Originally Posted by thomasfloyd:
Indiana State's Lathan is from West Monroe and the AD from Monroe said that there has been more requests from Lathans friends and family for tix than there has been from ULM fans. Knowing the situation down there, I assume he is not joking. Lathan played with Mingo from ULM and Lathan made the comment that he has looked forward more to this game than any other. Just giving my .02
Indiana State's Lathan is from West Monroe and the AD from Monroe said that there has been more requests from Lathans friends and family for tix than there has been from ULM fans. Knowing the situation down there, I assume he is not joking. Lathan played with Mingo from ULM and Lathan made the comment that he has looked forward more to this game than any other. Just giving my .02
Yah, I read a bit about that. I have no statistics to prove what I'm about to say, but it almost always seems that when kids return home, they suck. Whether it be that they have the outside distractions going on, or more people in attendance, or they're trying to hard, the rare instances that it has occurred the past few years have not ended up all that well. I've heard a few big name coaches sort of echo the same feeling.
GL
0
Posted:
#291
NRopp, nice writeup... I was surprised to see the Detroit/Notre Dame line only +7 for Detroit. The newspaper had DET +9.5. I think I need to stay away from this, as you know I want to take Detroit. I don't think 7 points is enough, but it sounds like you feel that could maybe win this Outright. Will roll with you on Tenn State, I like the play. I took them last year several times and won I remember.
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Posted:
#294
Was interested if you had an opinion on USC/Nebraska because I know little about USC.
Nebraska should be running more this year with more depth and experience but we will see. Bo Spencer had a horrid shooting night as his first start for Nebraska (1-9) but did not turn the ball over.
Nebraska is without Almeida but Niemann (2 knee surgeries last 2 years) is somehow healthy and can give 10-15 minutes of a big body defender.
Definitely the most talent and experience Doc has had in his tenure at Nebraska. Dylan Talley (from Binghampton then JUCO) had surprising good first game too.
I also understand the lack of confidence in Nebraska at this point.
Thanks for all the information thus far Neil, good luck
Nebraska should be running more this year with more depth and experience but we will see. Bo Spencer had a horrid shooting night as his first start for Nebraska (1-9) but did not turn the ball over.
Nebraska is without Almeida but Niemann (2 knee surgeries last 2 years) is somehow healthy and can give 10-15 minutes of a big body defender.
Definitely the most talent and experience Doc has had in his tenure at Nebraska. Dylan Talley (from Binghampton then JUCO) had surprising good first game too.
I also understand the lack of confidence in Nebraska at this point.
Thanks for all the information thus far Neil, good luck
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Posted:
#297
Quote Originally Posted by trajan21:
Was interested if you had an opinion on USC/Nebraska because I know little about USC.
Nebraska should be running more this year with more depth and experience but we will see. Bo Spencer had a horrid shooting night as his first start for Nebraska (1-9) but did not turn the ball over.
Nebraska is without Almeida but Niemann (2 knee surgeries last 2 years) is somehow healthy and can give 10-15 minutes of a big body defender.
Definitely the most talent and experience Doc has had in his tenure at Nebraska. Dylan Talley (from Binghampton then JUCO) had surprising good first game too.
I also understand the lack of confidence in Nebraska at this point.
Thanks for all the information thus far Neil, good luck
Was interested if you had an opinion on USC/Nebraska because I know little about USC.
Nebraska should be running more this year with more depth and experience but we will see. Bo Spencer had a horrid shooting night as his first start for Nebraska (1-9) but did not turn the ball over.
Nebraska is without Almeida but Niemann (2 knee surgeries last 2 years) is somehow healthy and can give 10-15 minutes of a big body defender.
Definitely the most talent and experience Doc has had in his tenure at Nebraska. Dylan Talley (from Binghampton then JUCO) had surprising good first game too.
I also understand the lack of confidence in Nebraska at this point.
Thanks for all the information thus far Neil, good luck
I like them in this spot. And while they have a ton of experience, they really haven't experienced this whole travel across the country sort of thing too much, if at all. Just scary.
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