my guy i have done more in life than you have despite you being older than me. there's nothing you can say that will impress me. "Find God" ... lmfao. I will continue betting and doing whatever I want and there's nothing you can do about it. mama's basement? we don't even have those in Florida dumbass, sounds like you're speaking from personal experience. If you are really about that life, my instagram is my same name here. another keyboard warrior commenting on random people's posts and threads. get lost and learn to close your mouth before you get fucked up in real life. everyone is tough until you have to back that tough talk up
Don't Bet What You Don't Have
0
@supermanbets
my guy i have done more in life than you have despite you being older than me. there's nothing you can say that will impress me. "Find God" ... lmfao. I will continue betting and doing whatever I want and there's nothing you can do about it. mama's basement? we don't even have those in Florida dumbass, sounds like you're speaking from personal experience. If you are really about that life, my instagram is my same name here. another keyboard warrior commenting on random people's posts and threads. get lost and learn to close your mouth before you get fucked up in real life. everyone is tough until you have to back that tough talk up
Glancing over the line and taking the notes I'm seeing NC State only a -5.5 to get and Clemson a -3 to get. I am going to check different books and see what an NC State & Clemson parlay pays out. Both teams are playing weaker opponents at home, already hearing people taking NC State even with the -5.5. NC State plays a Wake Forest team that is 4-6 on the road... and NC State is 14-1 at home. NC State should cruise to a nice easy victory. I also think Clemson wins tomorrow night, Syracuse has been known for their home court advantage but they have to play against a better Clemson team IN Clemson. Clemson is 13-1 at home btw. it's gonna be loud in there and Syracuse doesn't stand a chance. Take Clemson and NC State to win tomorrow to help their record look as nice as possible before getting their March Madness seed. Just buy the lines being -5.5 and -3 alone, I think we will get plus money here. Hopefully a +110 or better to parlay these two together
Don't Bet What You Don't Have
1
@sidthetallkid
2/21 Plays (Early)
Parlay opportunity:
NC State & Clemson Parlay
Glancing over the line and taking the notes I'm seeing NC State only a -5.5 to get and Clemson a -3 to get. I am going to check different books and see what an NC State & Clemson parlay pays out. Both teams are playing weaker opponents at home, already hearing people taking NC State even with the -5.5. NC State plays a Wake Forest team that is 4-6 on the road... and NC State is 14-1 at home. NC State should cruise to a nice easy victory. I also think Clemson wins tomorrow night, Syracuse has been known for their home court advantage but they have to play against a better Clemson team IN Clemson. Clemson is 13-1 at home btw. it's gonna be loud in there and Syracuse doesn't stand a chance. Take Clemson and NC State to win tomorrow to help their record look as nice as possible before getting their March Madness seed. Just buy the lines being -5.5 and -3 alone, I think we will get plus money here. Hopefully a +110 or better to parlay these two together
of course boys, I will start a new thread tomorrow or soon that i'll continue onwards there. appreciate the support, i have already found 5 or 6 earls leans for tomorrow that I'll leave here:
drexel -5.5 home vs Northeastern south dakota +14 at home vs oral roberts northwestern +5.5 at Illinois (take NW with the points, this should be a very close game)
parlay: SIUE ml (great ml parlay play instead of taking a -8) Sam Houston St ml (great ml parlay team in my opinion, I expect them to win by 7-10 pts but don't want to bet a -7)
Don't Bet What You Don't Have
0
@jjj888
@AdVictoriam
@soccergal
of course boys, I will start a new thread tomorrow or soon that i'll continue onwards there. appreciate the support, i have already found 5 or 6 earls leans for tomorrow that I'll leave here:
drexel -5.5 home vs Northeastern south dakota +14 at home vs oral roberts northwestern +5.5 at Illinois (take NW with the points, this should be a very close game)
parlay: SIUE ml (great ml parlay play instead of taking a -8) Sam Houston St ml (great ml parlay team in my opinion, I expect them to win by 7-10 pts but don't want to bet a -7)
forgot one play above, look into UCSB -5 at home vs Long Beach State. Taking a -5 could be a great play or a ml bet if showing a -200 or better in my opinion
Don't Bet What You Don't Have
0
@sidthetallkid
forgot one play above, look into UCSB -5 at home vs Long Beach State. Taking a -5 could be a great play or a ml bet if showing a -200 or better in my opinion
You are dead right about your strategy and don't let them tell you otherwise. The other posters here are mostly degenerate gamblers and posters who just like to start shit. I don't see them offering any alternate strategies and in most cases they don't even post plays before the games. They just like to argue. They would argue if you said Michael Jordan was a better player than Dexter Shouse.
I heard the same shit. I have currently won 32 straight big ML bets. ALL were posted here at covers before the games. I had 6 tonight, I had 7 on Feb 18, I had 7 on Feb 16...These we're all anywhere from -500 to -1200 and I have won 32 in a row.
I also started a thread- Double up or bust betting huge MLs until I doubled my starting bankroll or lost 1 time. They all said it would bust. Instead it doubled up.
Point is, don't listen to the idiots on this board. Positive EV bets can be found at any price point. And it is a fact that a -2000/+1200 line has far less juice than a -110/-110 bet. FACT. Google vig calculator. It's true.
The one bet that has the most baked in vig is -110 both ways. That is the hardest bet to win at. Other than of course -115 or -120 both ways which these dummies happily bet on first half lines and game props. Those are rarely -110 both ways, they generally carry even more vig. So if you want to talk about bets that are impossible to beat long term.....
I think a lot of them are really bad at math and overestimate the loss when you lose. And yes you will lose sometimes. I just had a poster say in my thread that if a team is -855 you have to bet $855 to win $1 so it's not worth it. Yes he said that.
It's pretty easy to find --500 MLs where the team has far better than an 83% chance to win. And say it's only an 88% chance, you aren't making "pennies". You bet $100 to win $20, win 8 times, lose 1 time, you win $300 profit (800-500) which quadruples the original $100. That is hardly "pennies"
Yet most of this board is chasing -110 plays when it's virtually impossible to win 52.5% long term. Or buying half point on under 134.5, but it up to under 135 ( that truly might be the dumbest thing I have ever seen), or pounding big game prop bets with ridiculous juice.
So no don't ever listen to these posters here.
0
@sidthetallkid
You are dead right about your strategy and don't let them tell you otherwise. The other posters here are mostly degenerate gamblers and posters who just like to start shit. I don't see them offering any alternate strategies and in most cases they don't even post plays before the games. They just like to argue. They would argue if you said Michael Jordan was a better player than Dexter Shouse.
I heard the same shit. I have currently won 32 straight big ML bets. ALL were posted here at covers before the games. I had 6 tonight, I had 7 on Feb 18, I had 7 on Feb 16...These we're all anywhere from -500 to -1200 and I have won 32 in a row.
I also started a thread- Double up or bust betting huge MLs until I doubled my starting bankroll or lost 1 time. They all said it would bust. Instead it doubled up.
Point is, don't listen to the idiots on this board. Positive EV bets can be found at any price point. And it is a fact that a -2000/+1200 line has far less juice than a -110/-110 bet. FACT. Google vig calculator. It's true.
The one bet that has the most baked in vig is -110 both ways. That is the hardest bet to win at. Other than of course -115 or -120 both ways which these dummies happily bet on first half lines and game props. Those are rarely -110 both ways, they generally carry even more vig. So if you want to talk about bets that are impossible to beat long term.....
I think a lot of them are really bad at math and overestimate the loss when you lose. And yes you will lose sometimes. I just had a poster say in my thread that if a team is -855 you have to bet $855 to win $1 so it's not worth it. Yes he said that.
It's pretty easy to find --500 MLs where the team has far better than an 83% chance to win. And say it's only an 88% chance, you aren't making "pennies". You bet $100 to win $20, win 8 times, lose 1 time, you win $300 profit (800-500) which quadruples the original $100. That is hardly "pennies"
Yet most of this board is chasing -110 plays when it's virtually impossible to win 52.5% long term. Or buying half point on under 134.5, but it up to under 135 ( that truly might be the dumbest thing I have ever seen), or pounding big game prop bets with ridiculous juice.
I completely agree with everything you just said... many simply do not know how to conduct research to find these teams with that 83% chance or higher to win. Studying lines, spreads, and even checking predictions all around will help you find these golden teams to win on ml plays. I have had 4 straight winning weeks betting on these nice ml plays that usually vary between a -180 to -400 spread. Very consistent & even parlaying 2-3 teams that vary from -250 to -600 spread or so. Went 3/3 yesterday for a parlay with UNCW, Montana State & Santa Clara which I had full faith that all 3 teams would win. Appreciate your feedback and insight Danny. Cheers
Don't Bet What You Don't Have
0
@Danny9999
I completely agree with everything you just said... many simply do not know how to conduct research to find these teams with that 83% chance or higher to win. Studying lines, spreads, and even checking predictions all around will help you find these golden teams to win on ml plays. I have had 4 straight winning weeks betting on these nice ml plays that usually vary between a -180 to -400 spread. Very consistent & even parlaying 2-3 teams that vary from -250 to -600 spread or so. Went 3/3 yesterday for a parlay with UNCW, Montana State & Santa Clara which I had full faith that all 3 teams would win. Appreciate your feedback and insight Danny. Cheers
Every wager at certain odds requires a certain win rate to be profitable
If you can develop a system that identifies heavy faves as +EV then great...
But as you make more and more picks you increase your risk and take on more exposure to variables that are out of your 'capping' control....this is inevitable and will occur at some point...
Look at MITM ...could only make it 4 plays before a huge loser....and then says "this shouldn't be posted on a forum".....thats some hilarious bullshit....post the plays and post winners...back up your talk....simple
Again...any betting strategy CAN be successful....but WILL it be successful?? There is a massive difference
0
@sidthetallkid @Danny9999
Every wager is its own entity....
Every wager at certain odds requires a certain win rate to be profitable
If you can develop a system that identifies heavy faves as +EV then great...
But as you make more and more picks you increase your risk and take on more exposure to variables that are out of your 'capping' control....this is inevitable and will occur at some point...
Look at MITM ...could only make it 4 plays before a huge loser....and then says "this shouldn't be posted on a forum".....thats some hilarious bullshit....post the plays and post winners...back up your talk....simple
Again...any betting strategy CAN be successful....but WILL it be successful?? There is a massive difference
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