Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 7-11, -12.70
December Leans: 4-16
Coming into the season, I pegged both Elon and NC Greensboro to both have much better year’s this year as both returned quite a bit and while I have Elon finishing a few spots higher at the end of the year, it’s a direct correlation of how well this team performs at home. I guess in looking in my projections, I pegged Elon a few spots better offensively, and UNCG a few spots better defensively. In looking at what each team has done to this point in the season, it would appear that Elon has had a much better start, and that is true, but their offense has in no way looked anything close to what I projected it could be, and while their defense has been spectacular to this point, I think it’s more-so a case of what types of offenses they have played thus far. If I gave you a list of the following teams, take what you feel is the top two offenses: Umass, South Carolina, Princeton, NC State, Furman, and Navy. From my perspective, I’m taking Umass and NC State, two teams that Elon lost to in convincing fashion, and the only two losses on the year for Elon, which coincidentally occur on the road. Other than that, they won a one point game at Princeton, they beat South Carolina at home in the biggest game in program history, and most recently they beat Furman by 7 at home, and needed a twenty-six footer to beat Navy just two days ago. The Navy win was going to be key in tonight’s analysis, and the Furman game I will point out that I project this UNCG team to be a bit better than Furman by season’s end. So, in looking at Elon, I don’t think the offense has quite yet hit expectations that I was hoping for, which is what I would need to take a stab at them here tonight against what I project to be a better defense than what they bring to the table. In looking at UNC Greensboro’s season, they’ve spent the better part of the year on the road and opened the year at Tennessee, at Georgetown, and at Middle Tennessee State. The first two, they’re clearly over-matched, and while they matchup decent with MTSTU, this MTSTU offense has sort of woken up from a dreadful season just one year ago and they’re scoring on anybody and everybody. Clearly, this UNC Greensboro defense has been far from impressive, but when you play those types of schools that are going to shoot 50+% (I think Georgetown shot better than that with all the beef in the paint), obviously the stats are going to be a bit down. After the neutral court win over Towson (where they were favored by a TD against what I feel is a similar offense to Elon), they took to the road for three more and lost all three before returning home tonight for the real home opener against a D-1 school, and the conference opener. The home loss to NC A&T was bad, and there is no hiding from that, but I’ll take that as having a week off was generally not a good thing for the team heading into SoCon play just a few days later. Once SoCon play started up, they drew Appy State, one of the best offenses in the SoCon on the road in game #1, and in game #2 they travelled to Western Carolina who owns one of the top defenses in the league. They went into the SoCon road opener playing a team that likes to play their style, and went from that to a team that will generally slow it down with a good defense and and hung around in the latter of the two. This UNC Greensboro team has seen good offenses thus far this year, and there is no reason that they should be scared of Elon tonight. One thing I focused on in the offseason with Elon, and within the landscape of NCAAB in general was how do teams that rely on good shooting bounce back after playing or having to play a drastically different style just a few days later. I knew what I was getting myself into, and will share at a later date, but when you go into the Navy, Penn State, Princeton, just the really weird styles of play that are rare to find, your offense generally takes a slight hit for a few reasons...
GL Neil 
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