LOCK OF THE SEASON

Just trying to get everybody's attention.
But this is a really good pick tonight. High confidence pick.

San Diego St. Pick'em - They are playing at home and getting no respect against the Lobos who they beat already @ The Pit????? I don't quite understand why this is where it is. Vegas missed the first meeting between these to teams by giving the Aztecs +11.5 in Albuquerque. Can they have possibly did it again???

Was hilarious how I was allowed to clean up on SDSU as they were something like +325 first time they played UNM while ranked like # 12 in the country.

Ugh.

GL.

Tread carefully, if it's too good to be true it probably is...

I'm gonna put my biggest bet of the year on this one and live with the consequences. I watch a lot of MWC and WAC living in NM. Lobos have trouble with teams that bang inside. They are primarily a perimeter shooting team. They beat up on the bottom feeders of the MWC. Can they beat the Aztecs??? Yes, only if they shoot the 3 really well. They live and die from the outside. Aztecs all day long!!

It was to good to be true the first time lol +11.5 and won outright @ the Pit? PICKEM at home??? Gotta go with what I think is the better team. Especially at home!!

SDST hasn't dropped consecutive games since 2010. 27 of the last 30 conference home games they won. Won 8 out the last 10 at home against the Lobos.

The last two stats that you posted basically proves that they're vincible.

Yeah what's the percentage knuckle head lol. 80%in the last 10 at home?? 90% in the last 30 conference home games. That was the point of the stats. You are a glass half empty guy aren't you. Lol like somebody saying you have a one and a million shot at something. Yeah you have shot and so do the Lobos. I didn't say they didn't have a shot. If you were smart you would have read previous posts. I said if Lobos shoot good from the perimeter they have a chance. They live and die by the 3. You can always look stats both ways negative nancy. Lol I play percentages and odds and stats are in favor SDST!!!

Lots of times when something seems too good to be true, it is.

Take last night's NBA game between Denver & Phoenix.  PHX +9 seemed like a gift. Then PHX announces that Nash and G. Hill are "resting."  Denver ccmpletely blows out PHX.

Just saying you should make sure you've covered all bases.  Everyone knows that SDSU beat up NM @ the Pit, including oddsmakers.

So making SDSU a pick em seems shady.

I'm thinking Vegas still give SDST not enough credit.  I think close game, but Aztecs win by 3-5.  Just MHO

You got your news late, it was announced earlier that day.

Composite that game was in Denver. HOME TEAM!!!! Home teams play harder on their own court. Doesn't always happen but they defend their turf. Take Clemson for instance last night.

If someone were to offer you pick'em at even $, how much would you put on it? 

i would be careful on this game. it is just one game win or lose live to bet another day.

Well let me see. Home team ranked 15th in the nation. Playing at home. Beat the other team already this year at a place that is hard to win. Other team has no big road wins. Visiting team is Perimeter shooting team with no inside physical presence. Home team can dominate the paint. Out of 100% of my bankroll I would put 30-50%

anything can happen in college hoops.
for example  Miami @ Duke last week

Jennings did not play against UVA in their first contest. Jennings played last night and had 5 pts and 8 rebounds. It helped Clemson win.

Yeah true professional but I really like this game. If it does lose I can live with my decision. I know Vegas has this line here for a reason. But with all the variables how do you take the Lobos??? I'm a New Mexican and watch a lot of MWC games. Lobos are a jump shooting team. They have no real big man. A lot of finesse players. SDST is CLEARLY the best team here especially at home. Any team can beat any one any given night. Just tough to see this one going the other way!

You bet Zoot. Especially when you don't see it coming. I saw +11.5 the first meeting between these 2 and laughed. What happened? SDST beat them outright! SDST knows the Lobos are gonna play hard and this game will be close early on. But SDST is not looking past this team and knows they can very easily lose this game. I'm not saying blowout but 6-8 points sounds good.

.... and BOOM! goes the dynamite.

You don't make a single point that the book doesn't already know and hasn't already factored into the line.

Putting over 7-8% (and that's a generously high percentage) of any legitimate bankroll on any one play is laughable. Putting 40% of a bankroll on any one play basically confirms that you don't really have a bankroll to speak of.