I love Kentucky this Saturday as -2 point chalk against UConn and now have decided to add a bit to them winning the whole thing.
Nothing crazy, just half my normal betting amount.
The ML price for them against UCONN is -145 (59%). I expect them to be at least -250 ML next game against either Butler or VCU which equates to (71%) chance of winning. When you combine these two, Kentucky basically has 42% chance of winning the whole thing. +145 odds equate to 41%, thus it's fairly accurate.
So why did I decide to do this? It's very simple actually...I just had a very vivid dream of the Wildcats cutting down the nets in celebration of their championship. VERY VIVID! :)
Good luck fellas! SORRY NOT AS BIG OF BETTOR AS YOU BUT ALL READY BET 200 ON KY - 2 FOR SATURDAYS GAME
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Futures:Kentucky +145 to win NCAAB tourney
I love Kentucky this Saturday as -2 point chalk against UConn and now have decided to add a bit to them winning the whole thing.
Nothing crazy, just half my normal betting amount.
The ML price for them against UCONN is -145 (59%). I expect them to be at least -250 ML next game against either Butler or VCU which equates to (71%) chance of winning. When you combine these two, Kentucky basically has 42% chance of winning the whole thing. +145 odds equate to 41%, thus it's fairly accurate.
So why did I decide to do this? It's very simple actually...I just had a very vivid dream of the Wildcats cutting down the nets in celebration of their championship. VERY VIVID! :)
Good luck fellas! SORRY NOT AS BIG OF BETTOR AS YOU BUT ALL READY BET 200 ON KY - 2 FOR SATURDAYS GAME
Bodio, what do you think of the chances that either VCU or Butler could beat UConn or KY. I'm thinking UCONN at +200 and KY at +150. If take both, then you are getting money provided the big upset doesnt happen
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Bodio, what do you think of the chances that either VCU or Butler could beat UConn or KY. I'm thinking UCONN at +200 and KY at +150. If take both, then you are getting money provided the big upset doesnt happen
Bodio, what do you think of the chances that either VCU or Butler could beat UConn or KY. I'm thinking UCONN at +200 and KY at +150. If take both, then you are getting money provided the big upset doesnt happen
I think the chances are under 30% but it's still there.
If you do this bet, I would hope you're cheering for VCU to beat Butler, as I see the Bulldogs as being a tougher opponent.
Either way, this bet has a NEGATIVE expected result.
Let's assume you bet $100 on each of these, one at +150 and one at +200 odds. Combining the 2 you have the expected combined odds of +175. But then you must subract $100 off the bet, since you're guaranteed to lose that. So your expected profit becomes +75 if you WIN! (mind you, it's expected profit, not actual. Actual will be either +50 or +100, assuming you win. If you lose, it's -200 of course)
Assuming that in the championship game, either UCONN or Kentucky will be around -250 (that's my best guess..if it's lower, then it's worse for you, if it's higher than it's better for your long-term results ), you have about 70% (it's actually 71%, but we'll round off here) of winning this wager. So obviously, there is 30% chance that you will lose both, or -200. So here's the calculation:
Expected Profit = ((175-100)*70%) - (200*30%)
Your Expected Profit comes out to -7.5
So is this bet worth it long-term? Of course not! But if you're feeling lucky and just putting a small 'fun' wager on it, then why not?
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Quote Originally Posted by VLR:
Bodio, what do you think of the chances that either VCU or Butler could beat UConn or KY. I'm thinking UCONN at +200 and KY at +150. If take both, then you are getting money provided the big upset doesnt happen
I think the chances are under 30% but it's still there.
If you do this bet, I would hope you're cheering for VCU to beat Butler, as I see the Bulldogs as being a tougher opponent.
Either way, this bet has a NEGATIVE expected result.
Let's assume you bet $100 on each of these, one at +150 and one at +200 odds. Combining the 2 you have the expected combined odds of +175. But then you must subract $100 off the bet, since you're guaranteed to lose that. So your expected profit becomes +75 if you WIN! (mind you, it's expected profit, not actual. Actual will be either +50 or +100, assuming you win. If you lose, it's -200 of course)
Assuming that in the championship game, either UCONN or Kentucky will be around -250 (that's my best guess..if it's lower, then it's worse for you, if it's higher than it's better for your long-term results ), you have about 70% (it's actually 71%, but we'll round off here) of winning this wager. So obviously, there is 30% chance that you will lose both, or -200. So here's the calculation:
Expected Profit = ((175-100)*70%) - (200*30%)
Your Expected Profit comes out to -7.5
So is this bet worth it long-term? Of course not! But if you're feeling lucky and just putting a small 'fun' wager on it, then why not?
Bodio I respect your selections normally but this time you really dont have details which support a Kentucky wager! I'd feel much better selecting them if you wrote your normal writeup. My head tells me that their is really no angle on either game and both games are tossups. I'd say take the dogs and tease them for the payout! Thoughts everyone?
Gusto, like promised, I've included a write-up for my play.
Bodio I respect your selections normally but this time you really dont have details which support a Kentucky wager! I'd feel much better selecting them if you wrote your normal writeup. My head tells me that their is really no angle on either game and both games are tossups. I'd say take the dogs and tease them for the payout! Thoughts everyone?
Gusto, like promised, I've included a write-up for my play.
I think the chances are under 30% but it's still there.
If you do this bet, I would hope you're cheering for VCU to beat Butler, as I see the Bulldogs as being a tougher opponent.
Either way, this bet has a NEGATIVE expected result.
Let's assume you bet $100 on each of these, one at +150 and one at +200 odds. Combining the 2 you have the expected combined odds of +175. But then you must subract $100 off the bet, since you're guaranteed to lose that. So your expected profit becomes +75 if you WIN! (mind you, it's expected profit, not actual. Actual will be either +50 or +100, assuming you win. If you lose, it's -200 of course)
Assuming that in the championship game, either UCONN or Kentucky will be around -250 (that's my best guess..if it's lower, then it's worse for you, if it's higher than it's better for your long-term results ), you have about 70% (it's actually 71%, but we'll round off here) of winning this wager. So obviously, there is 30% chance that you will lose both, or -200. So here's the calculation:
Expected Profit = ((175-100)*70%) - (200*30%)
Your Expected Profit comes out to -7.5
So is this bet worth it long-term? Of course not! But if you're feeling lucky and just putting a small 'fun' wager on it, then why not?
Thanks Bodio,
I feel ashamed that you put more analysis into my bet that I did. I didntdo it was justthrownit out there. I was thiking it was a way to hedge the more likely scenario of KY losing to Uconn. Of course the Butler line would be smaller, but youre right probably not worth it. I think Im still stinging from my Kansas bet. I had them at +600 to win it all in January. When their road opened up I was planning on hedging when they got to the title game. Right before the VCU gamethere was a line for the field to win it at -130 and I decided not to at last minute, which took me about 10 minutes of 1st half play to immediately regret
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
I think the chances are under 30% but it's still there.
If you do this bet, I would hope you're cheering for VCU to beat Butler, as I see the Bulldogs as being a tougher opponent.
Either way, this bet has a NEGATIVE expected result.
Let's assume you bet $100 on each of these, one at +150 and one at +200 odds. Combining the 2 you have the expected combined odds of +175. But then you must subract $100 off the bet, since you're guaranteed to lose that. So your expected profit becomes +75 if you WIN! (mind you, it's expected profit, not actual. Actual will be either +50 or +100, assuming you win. If you lose, it's -200 of course)
Assuming that in the championship game, either UCONN or Kentucky will be around -250 (that's my best guess..if it's lower, then it's worse for you, if it's higher than it's better for your long-term results ), you have about 70% (it's actually 71%, but we'll round off here) of winning this wager. So obviously, there is 30% chance that you will lose both, or -200. So here's the calculation:
Expected Profit = ((175-100)*70%) - (200*30%)
Your Expected Profit comes out to -7.5
So is this bet worth it long-term? Of course not! But if you're feeling lucky and just putting a small 'fun' wager on it, then why not?
Thanks Bodio,
I feel ashamed that you put more analysis into my bet that I did. I didntdo it was justthrownit out there. I was thiking it was a way to hedge the more likely scenario of KY losing to Uconn. Of course the Butler line would be smaller, but youre right probably not worth it. I think Im still stinging from my Kansas bet. I had them at +600 to win it all in January. When their road opened up I was planning on hedging when they got to the title game. Right before the VCU gamethere was a line for the field to win it at -130 and I decided not to at last minute, which took me about 10 minutes of 1st half play to immediately regret
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I didntdo it was justthrownit out there. I was thiking it was a way to hedge the more likely scenario of KY losing to Uconn. Of course the Butler line would be smaller, but youre right probably not worth it. I think Im still stinging from my Kansas bet. I had them at +600 to win it all in January. When their road opened up I was planning on hedging when they got to the title game. Right before the VCU gamethere was a line for the field to win it at -130 and I decided not to at last minute, which took me about 10 minutes of 1st half play to immediately regret 
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