What's your thoughts on the over in Cornell and Harvard? Both teams seem to be scoring at a brisk pace.
In the Cornell/Brown game, I think I'd lean under but it's really close. Based on their styles, you can expect a game that'll be played in the mid-sixties in terms of numbers of possessions. So to go over, you'd need an average efficiency of 1.08 or better between the two teams (assuming 65 possessions). While Cornell has a decent chance to get there or even better than that, you'd need them to average that between the two teams so it'll be real close. And I don't think you'll have the benefit of free throws in this one, as I think the game will be decided well before the final minute. So either way, I don't think there's a ton of value in the line, but with a gun to my head I'd play the under.
In the Penn-Harvard game, I'd probably lean over, but again it's only a very slight lean. I think both teams will outperform their expected efficiencies based on the matchups, but there's a pretty wide range in terms of the expected number of possessions. The expected number of possessions is around 67, but nothing between 60 and 72 would surprise me. In general, Penn's been playing at a much quicker pace the past three weeks (with the Columbia game being a notable exception), but the gameplan has varied so much from game to game lately that it's hard to say. If you think the possessions will be there, then I'd feel good about the over because I think the efficiency will be there.
But as I've said before, I stink at totals so take of this with a gigantic grain of salt. You're way better than me at totals so just go with your gut and ignore me lol.
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Quote Originally Posted by Blakejeff:
What's your thoughts on the over in Cornell and Harvard? Both teams seem to be scoring at a brisk pace.
In the Cornell/Brown game, I think I'd lean under but it's really close. Based on their styles, you can expect a game that'll be played in the mid-sixties in terms of numbers of possessions. So to go over, you'd need an average efficiency of 1.08 or better between the two teams (assuming 65 possessions). While Cornell has a decent chance to get there or even better than that, you'd need them to average that between the two teams so it'll be real close. And I don't think you'll have the benefit of free throws in this one, as I think the game will be decided well before the final minute. So either way, I don't think there's a ton of value in the line, but with a gun to my head I'd play the under.
In the Penn-Harvard game, I'd probably lean over, but again it's only a very slight lean. I think both teams will outperform their expected efficiencies based on the matchups, but there's a pretty wide range in terms of the expected number of possessions. The expected number of possessions is around 67, but nothing between 60 and 72 would surprise me. In general, Penn's been playing at a much quicker pace the past three weeks (with the Columbia game being a notable exception), but the gameplan has varied so much from game to game lately that it's hard to say. If you think the possessions will be there, then I'd feel good about the over because I think the efficiency will be there.
But as I've said before, I stink at totals so take of this with a gigantic grain of salt. You're way better than me at totals so just go with your gut and ignore me lol.
If anything your great writeups demonstrate that the bookies are particularly sharp at setting Ivy League lines.
BOL with your plays
Haha that's a good point. They are today, at least. If you've noticed, though, there has been some serious value the past few Saturdays when the Ivy League is overlooked by all the bigger conferences. Way less money comes in on the Saturday games than the Friday ones, and the lines aren't nearly as sharp.
I'm really hoping to get nice numbers tomorrow on Harvard and Brown. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of Brown -4 and Harvard +1.5, but we'll see.
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Quote Originally Posted by JackedUp:
If anything your great writeups demonstrate that the bookies are particularly sharp at setting Ivy League lines.
BOL with your plays
Haha that's a good point. They are today, at least. If you've noticed, though, there has been some serious value the past few Saturdays when the Ivy League is overlooked by all the bigger conferences. Way less money comes in on the Saturday games than the Friday ones, and the lines aren't nearly as sharp.
I'm really hoping to get nice numbers tomorrow on Harvard and Brown. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of Brown -4 and Harvard +1.5, but we'll see.
Thanks to all for the kind words. Maybe I don't say it enough, but the fact that people read and appreciate this thread has made it fun and enjoyable to put the work in.
Good luck to all you guys tonight on whatever you're playing.
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Thanks to all for the kind words. Maybe I don't say it enough, but the fact that people read and appreciate this thread has made it fun and enjoyable to put the work in.
Good luck to all you guys tonight on whatever you're playing.
Haha that's a good point. They are today, at least. If you've noticed, though, there has been some serious value the past few Saturdays when the Ivy League is overlooked by all the bigger conferences. Way less money comes in on the Saturday games than the Friday ones, and the lines aren't nearly as sharp.
I'm really hoping to get nice numbers tomorrow on Harvard and Brown. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of Brown -4 and Harvard +1.5, but we'll see.
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Quote Originally Posted by Dmon826:
Haha that's a good point. They are today, at least. If you've noticed, though, there has been some serious value the past few Saturdays when the Ivy League is overlooked by all the bigger conferences. Way less money comes in on the Saturday games than the Friday ones, and the lines aren't nearly as sharp.
I'm really hoping to get nice numbers tomorrow on Harvard and Brown. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of Brown -4 and Harvard +1.5, but we'll see.
Looking forward to any new info today from you Dmon. I know you like Saturdays better when things fall the way you would like them to on Fridays. And I believe that they did....
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Looking forward to any new info today from you Dmon. I know you like Saturdays better when things fall the way you would like them to on Fridays. And I believe that they did....
The battle for second place is on. Obviously the league race was clinched last night (congrats to Cornell!), but these two teams still have something to play for in addition to outright second-place. Harvard still has ambitions of playing in the NIT, but it needs to win this game to keep that dream alive, and losing would kill any chance of making it. Princeton, for its part, still has a pretty decent chance to make the CIT or CBI, and while winning out would help the cause, I wouldn't say it's absolutely necessary.
Harvard had a surprisingly tough game yesterday. Despite physically dominating the game, winning the turnover battle 21-12 and winning the rebounding battle (collecting 36% of its o-board opportunities compared to 28% for Penn), Penn hung around all game by shooting the lights out. Despite taking 13 more shots than Penn, Harvard was trailing coming into the final minutes (because Penn shot 61% from the field and 58% from three) and had to gut out a win in the final seconds. It was a hard-fought game, and Harvard's star Jeremy Lin in particular had to work extremely hard for everything he got. Princeton, on the other hand, had an expected blowout win at home against Dartmouth. The game was over by halftime, and in the second half the coach was able to empty his bench. The starters played limited minutes and should all be very fresh tonight. This is in pretty stark contrast to what Harvard went through last night. This is the biggest advantage Princeton has going for them.
In their first matchup in Harvard, I actually played Princeton +8, but reasons for that play included Harvard being in a tough emotional spot following a drubbing at Cornell that had them doubting themselves, Harvard's top 2 big men at the time (Wright and Magnarelli) being injured and not playing in that game, Harvard's turnover problems at the time, and Princeton being in a spot to try to prove themselves as a team that was for real (for the first time all year). Not surprisingly, Princeton came out and played inspired ball and played a great game to beat a Harvard team that was down 56-53. Many, if not all, of the factors that were in play in that game that made me like Princeton then are now gone or have flipped.
First, Harvard is in a much, much better emotional spot now. Ever since that first Princeton game, they've been playing really great, winning 8 or 9 (with the only loss being to Cornell). And even when they lost to Cornell, taking them out of the race for the league title, they responded well mentally and have continued to play hard ever since and set the goal for themselves of making the NIT. If they win tonight, they have a decent chance to make it there and complete probably the best season in their history to date and set the stage for bigger things in the future. Second, both of their injured big guys are now back, although Wright is still banged up and coming off the bench playing fewer minutes than he was before. Third, starting with that Princeton game, Harvard has shored up its biggest offensive weakness and has taken much, much better care of the ball. And lastly, Princeton won't be playing this game in "prove themselves" mode.
If anything, Harvard has the emotional edge here and has the revenge factor at work. This is the last game of their season and they want to finish strong, make a statement, and hopefully move onto postseason play in the NIT. In the first matchup, Princeton won that game because they were in a better emotional/situational spot and shot the ball better. Harvard was the physically better team, winning the turnover/rebounding battle (even without its two injured players), but Princeton outshot them and pulled it out, even though Harvard is normally the better shooting team. In this game, Harvard has the situational edge. And unless Princeton shoots the lights out again, Harvard has a good chance to steal this game.
As I mentioned earlier, I have slight concerns about Harvard's fatigue coming off of last night's game and Princeton being the fresher team. But Princeton plays a slow, half-court game, so as long as Harvard has its legs on its outside shots they should be OK. Everything else points to Harvard, so I'm gonna go ahead and ignore than concern and play Harvard anyway. My gut likes Harvard and I'm gonna roll with it.
The play: HARVARD +2.5
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HARVARD @ PRINCETON -2.5
The battle for second place is on. Obviously the league race was clinched last night (congrats to Cornell!), but these two teams still have something to play for in addition to outright second-place. Harvard still has ambitions of playing in the NIT, but it needs to win this game to keep that dream alive, and losing would kill any chance of making it. Princeton, for its part, still has a pretty decent chance to make the CIT or CBI, and while winning out would help the cause, I wouldn't say it's absolutely necessary.
Harvard had a surprisingly tough game yesterday. Despite physically dominating the game, winning the turnover battle 21-12 and winning the rebounding battle (collecting 36% of its o-board opportunities compared to 28% for Penn), Penn hung around all game by shooting the lights out. Despite taking 13 more shots than Penn, Harvard was trailing coming into the final minutes (because Penn shot 61% from the field and 58% from three) and had to gut out a win in the final seconds. It was a hard-fought game, and Harvard's star Jeremy Lin in particular had to work extremely hard for everything he got. Princeton, on the other hand, had an expected blowout win at home against Dartmouth. The game was over by halftime, and in the second half the coach was able to empty his bench. The starters played limited minutes and should all be very fresh tonight. This is in pretty stark contrast to what Harvard went through last night. This is the biggest advantage Princeton has going for them.
In their first matchup in Harvard, I actually played Princeton +8, but reasons for that play included Harvard being in a tough emotional spot following a drubbing at Cornell that had them doubting themselves, Harvard's top 2 big men at the time (Wright and Magnarelli) being injured and not playing in that game, Harvard's turnover problems at the time, and Princeton being in a spot to try to prove themselves as a team that was for real (for the first time all year). Not surprisingly, Princeton came out and played inspired ball and played a great game to beat a Harvard team that was down 56-53. Many, if not all, of the factors that were in play in that game that made me like Princeton then are now gone or have flipped.
First, Harvard is in a much, much better emotional spot now. Ever since that first Princeton game, they've been playing really great, winning 8 or 9 (with the only loss being to Cornell). And even when they lost to Cornell, taking them out of the race for the league title, they responded well mentally and have continued to play hard ever since and set the goal for themselves of making the NIT. If they win tonight, they have a decent chance to make it there and complete probably the best season in their history to date and set the stage for bigger things in the future. Second, both of their injured big guys are now back, although Wright is still banged up and coming off the bench playing fewer minutes than he was before. Third, starting with that Princeton game, Harvard has shored up its biggest offensive weakness and has taken much, much better care of the ball. And lastly, Princeton won't be playing this game in "prove themselves" mode.
If anything, Harvard has the emotional edge here and has the revenge factor at work. This is the last game of their season and they want to finish strong, make a statement, and hopefully move onto postseason play in the NIT. In the first matchup, Princeton won that game because they were in a better emotional/situational spot and shot the ball better. Harvard was the physically better team, winning the turnover/rebounding battle (even without its two injured players), but Princeton outshot them and pulled it out, even though Harvard is normally the better shooting team. In this game, Harvard has the situational edge. And unless Princeton shoots the lights out again, Harvard has a good chance to steal this game.
As I mentioned earlier, I have slight concerns about Harvard's fatigue coming off of last night's game and Princeton being the fresher team. But Princeton plays a slow, half-court game, so as long as Harvard has its legs on its outside shots they should be OK. Everything else points to Harvard, so I'm gonna go ahead and ignore than concern and play Harvard anyway. My gut likes Harvard and I'm gonna roll with it.
This is the other game I like tonight. This is the last game of the season for these two teams and they are playing for nothing but pride, but there appears to be a huge difference with the way they're closing the regular season.
As I said yesterday, I love the way this Brown team has been playing lately, especially offensively. They continue to be underrated and I love the way that they're playing hard in every game here down the season's stretch run instead of packing it in. They've now put together seven straight really strong offensive performances (including a 76 point output yesterday against a pretty decent defensive Cornell team) keyed by strong shooting and a return to health of the centerpiece of their offense, center Matt Mullery. And tonight is Senior Night for Brown, as they recognize the efforts of their star Matt Mullery and guard Steve Gruber.
Columbia, on the hand, appears to have packed it in. They played two lifeless games at home last weekend and didn't play with any energy at all last night at Yale. This team has been a major disappoint all season long in the conference, and this team has the look right now of a bunch of guys who have packed it in. I don't see them coming anywhere close to matching Brown's energy in this last game of the season.
Brown also matches up well with Columbia. Their offense goes through center Matt Mullery but the key to its success is its (continued) hot shooting from the perimeter. And Columbia's interior defense AND its three-point defense both stink. Much like the Brown-Dartmouth game last week in which I played Brown, I feel confident that Brown will get its points and have serious doubts about whether or not its opponent is capable of matching them.
If Columbia surprises me and wins, good for them. But I have to back the better team, the hotter team, and the one team in this matchup that is still playing hard.
The play: BROWN -3.5
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COLUMBIA @ BROWN -3.5
This is the other game I like tonight. This is the last game of the season for these two teams and they are playing for nothing but pride, but there appears to be a huge difference with the way they're closing the regular season.
As I said yesterday, I love the way this Brown team has been playing lately, especially offensively. They continue to be underrated and I love the way that they're playing hard in every game here down the season's stretch run instead of packing it in. They've now put together seven straight really strong offensive performances (including a 76 point output yesterday against a pretty decent defensive Cornell team) keyed by strong shooting and a return to health of the centerpiece of their offense, center Matt Mullery. And tonight is Senior Night for Brown, as they recognize the efforts of their star Matt Mullery and guard Steve Gruber.
Columbia, on the hand, appears to have packed it in. They played two lifeless games at home last weekend and didn't play with any energy at all last night at Yale. This team has been a major disappoint all season long in the conference, and this team has the look right now of a bunch of guys who have packed it in. I don't see them coming anywhere close to matching Brown's energy in this last game of the season.
Brown also matches up well with Columbia. Their offense goes through center Matt Mullery but the key to its success is its (continued) hot shooting from the perimeter. And Columbia's interior defense AND its three-point defense both stink. Much like the Brown-Dartmouth game last week in which I played Brown, I feel confident that Brown will get its points and have serious doubts about whether or not its opponent is capable of matching them.
If Columbia surprises me and wins, good for them. But I have to back the better team, the hotter team, and the one team in this matchup that is still playing hard.
Well this is a crazy line. I expected somewhere around -8.5, but after yesterday it looks like Vegas is basically saying, "Fuck it, we're not letting anyone bet against Dartmouth on the road with a single-digit number, no matter who they're playing." This line is clearly inflated somewhat by 3-4 points compared to the lines these two teams have been getting all year, but Vegas is getting the 50/50 action it wants and so it doesn't need to sweat this terrible game at all.
There's not much to say about Dartmouth that hasn't already been said. I speculated yesterday that it looked like they had already quit on their season and weren't playing at all, and that certainly appeared to be the case yesterday when they didn't even bother to show up against Princeton. This is already one of the worst few teams in D-1, but it is probably the #1 worst team on the road. Mercifully, they get to put this horrendous season behind them after tonight's game.
Penn, meanwhile, suffered a heartbreaking loss last night to Harvard, in a game they played their hearts out (again) and shot the lights out, only to give the game away in the final minute. The last time they played a great game on a Friday night and shot the lights out (against Cornell a few weeks ago), they had nothing left in the tank the next night and wet the bed against Columbia. While this is a very different situation (they lost so there's no letdown factor, and in fact might even make them come out angry and motivated tonight), at the very least you can expect a huge offensive regression from how they shot and played last night.
Based on the clearly inflated line, the pure numerical "value" here is actually on Dartmouth. But Dartmouth on the road is such a disaster. And more damning, they've completely and totally quit on the season and just want it to end, so I couldn't possibly advise playing them.
However, there is a play I do like in this game, UNDER 121.5. First, while this game is projected to play at a pace of around 64 possessions based on the line, I expect this game to be played completely in the half-court, leading to an even slower game than that. Plus in general Penn plays at a much slower pace when they have the lead, which they're expected to tonight. Also, I think Penn is line for an off game shooting, as they've followed up each hot shooting game this year with a clunker in their next. And with all the energy Rosen, Monckton, Belcore, and Eggleston expended last night (all playing 35+ minutes), I think they won't have the legs on their shots tonight (which possibly explains why their past few good shooting games have been followed by lackluster performances). And whatever energy Penn does have left, I expect them to continue to play hard defensively as they try to avenge what happened last night and get a win on Senior Night.
Granted, I'm not very good at totals. But I do see some definite nice value in this under. I'm gonna play it a little smaller than my other plays purely because I'm bad at totals, but I do like it.
The (small) play: UNDER 121.5
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DARTMOUTH @ PENN -12
Well this is a crazy line. I expected somewhere around -8.5, but after yesterday it looks like Vegas is basically saying, "Fuck it, we're not letting anyone bet against Dartmouth on the road with a single-digit number, no matter who they're playing." This line is clearly inflated somewhat by 3-4 points compared to the lines these two teams have been getting all year, but Vegas is getting the 50/50 action it wants and so it doesn't need to sweat this terrible game at all.
There's not much to say about Dartmouth that hasn't already been said. I speculated yesterday that it looked like they had already quit on their season and weren't playing at all, and that certainly appeared to be the case yesterday when they didn't even bother to show up against Princeton. This is already one of the worst few teams in D-1, but it is probably the #1 worst team on the road. Mercifully, they get to put this horrendous season behind them after tonight's game.
Penn, meanwhile, suffered a heartbreaking loss last night to Harvard, in a game they played their hearts out (again) and shot the lights out, only to give the game away in the final minute. The last time they played a great game on a Friday night and shot the lights out (against Cornell a few weeks ago), they had nothing left in the tank the next night and wet the bed against Columbia. While this is a very different situation (they lost so there's no letdown factor, and in fact might even make them come out angry and motivated tonight), at the very least you can expect a huge offensive regression from how they shot and played last night.
Based on the clearly inflated line, the pure numerical "value" here is actually on Dartmouth. But Dartmouth on the road is such a disaster. And more damning, they've completely and totally quit on the season and just want it to end, so I couldn't possibly advise playing them.
However, there is a play I do like in this game, UNDER 121.5. First, while this game is projected to play at a pace of around 64 possessions based on the line, I expect this game to be played completely in the half-court, leading to an even slower game than that. Plus in general Penn plays at a much slower pace when they have the lead, which they're expected to tonight. Also, I think Penn is line for an off game shooting, as they've followed up each hot shooting game this year with a clunker in their next. And with all the energy Rosen, Monckton, Belcore, and Eggleston expended last night (all playing 35+ minutes), I think they won't have the legs on their shots tonight (which possibly explains why their past few good shooting games have been followed by lackluster performances). And whatever energy Penn does have left, I expect them to continue to play hard defensively as they try to avenge what happened last night and get a win on Senior Night.
Granted, I'm not very good at totals. But I do see some definite nice value in this under. I'm gonna play it a little smaller than my other plays purely because I'm bad at totals, but I do like it.
Congratulations to Cornell again on clinching the League title last night and becoming the first team in the NCAA to make the Big Dance. They earned it.
While Cornell has already clinched the League title, this is still a huge game for them in terms of NCAA seeding and they know it, so I wouldn't expect much, if any, of a letdown (Twitter quote from one of their players: @JJaques_25: Going dancing!!!! Big game for seeding tomorrow @ yale though).
At the same time, it's Senior Night for Yale and as I described yesterday, it's a really tough place to win on the road for some reason. In fact, last year's Cornell team that also won the Ivy League lost there midseason (losing 72-60). And they're still playing hard, which you have to give them credit for.
Basically I see no reason to play Cornell here when they've already clinched, on the road, in a tough place to play against a team that's still playing with pride and still playing hard in its final game of the season. At the same time, Cornell is so good and this is still a huge game for seeding and I can't bring myself to play against them.
If I had to play this game, I would probably play Yale actually. But at this point, it would take a huge situational angle for me to actually fade this Cornell team, and while I like Yale's spot in this one, it isn't nearly good enough and Cornell's isn't nearly bad enough to make this a play.
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CORNELL @ YALE +11.5
Congratulations to Cornell again on clinching the League title last night and becoming the first team in the NCAA to make the Big Dance. They earned it.
While Cornell has already clinched the League title, this is still a huge game for them in terms of NCAA seeding and they know it, so I wouldn't expect much, if any, of a letdown (Twitter quote from one of their players: @JJaques_25: Going dancing!!!! Big game for seeding tomorrow @ yale though).
At the same time, it's Senior Night for Yale and as I described yesterday, it's a really tough place to win on the road for some reason. In fact, last year's Cornell team that also won the Ivy League lost there midseason (losing 72-60). And they're still playing hard, which you have to give them credit for.
Basically I see no reason to play Cornell here when they've already clinched, on the road, in a tough place to play against a team that's still playing with pride and still playing hard in its final game of the season. At the same time, Cornell is so good and this is still a huge game for seeding and I can't bring myself to play against them.
If I had to play this game, I would probably play Yale actually. But at this point, it would take a huge situational angle for me to actually fade this Cornell team, and while I like Yale's spot in this one, it isn't nearly good enough and Cornell's isn't nearly bad enough to make this a play.
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Thanks for the info on this game; this write up as well as past info on both Dartmouth and Princeton helped with this play!
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