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    All Forums | College Basketball

    How do the oddsmaker's know?

    12 Next Last»
    buddha72
    jpot34
    CMoult83
    MLdogs
    Sizzles1049
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    buddha72
    buddha72
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 10:14 AM ET #1

    I have a question for anyone who might have the answer?  Yesterday every capper in the right mind "knew" Alabama and FSU were the right side. Or I should say the teams that should win their respective game by 10 plus points. Even the "professionals" were all over both of these teams. The point spreads did not move all day as each of teams got pounded.

    How do the "oddsmakers" always know the outcome before the game? I have been betting for about a decade and have little use in conspiracy theories. Refs are being bought off etc. Perhaps this happens but I believe those are isolated situations in 2018.  I mean seriously how they know that Missouri is going to go into Alabama and win? Late night, everyone loved Long Beach State at home. Of course, they also lost outright.  Cappers spend hours analyzing each game yet get tricked night after night by these guys.

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    I have a question for anyone who might have the answer?  Yesterday every capper in the right mind "knew" Alabama and FSU were the right side. Or I should say the teams that should win their respective game by 10 plus points. Even the "professionals" were all over both of these teams. The point spreads did not move all day as each of teams got pounded.

    How do the "oddsmakers" always know the outcome before the game? I have been betting for about a decade and have little use in conspiracy theories. Refs are being bought off etc. Perhaps this happens but I believe those are isolated situations in 2018.  I mean seriously how they know that Missouri is going to go into Alabama and win? Late night, everyone loved Long Beach State at home. Of course, they also lost outright.  Cappers spend hours analyzing each game yet get tricked night after night by these guys.

     
    jpot34
    jpot34
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 10:19 AM ET #2

    Quote Originally Posted by buddha72:

    I have a question for anyone who might have the answer?  Yesterday every capper in the right mind "knew" Alabama and FSU were the right side. Or I should say the teams that should win their respective game by 10 plus points. Even the "professionals" were all over both of these teams. The point spreads did not move all day as each of teams got pounded. How do the "oddsmakers" always know the outcome before the game? I have been betting for about a decade and have little use in conspiracy theories. Refs are being bought off etc. Perhaps this happens but I believe those are isolated situations in 2018.  I mean seriously how they know that Missouri is going to go into Alabama and win? Late night, everyone loved Long Beach State at home. Of course, they also lost outright.  Cappers spend hours analyzing each game yet get tricked night after night by these guys.

     

    You know the truth but won't accept it. Have more use for consp. theories.

    6K GOLD/$150 SILVER/ Find JESUS! Yes, I'm a sinner!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by buddha72:

    I have a question for anyone who might have the answer?  Yesterday every capper in the right mind "knew" Alabama and FSU were the right side. Or I should say the teams that should win their respective game by 10 plus points. Even the "professionals" were all over both of these teams. The point spreads did not move all day as each of teams got pounded. How do the "oddsmakers" always know the outcome before the game? I have been betting for about a decade and have little use in conspiracy theories. Refs are being bought off etc. Perhaps this happens but I believe those are isolated situations in 2018.  I mean seriously how they know that Missouri is going to go into Alabama and win? Late night, everyone loved Long Beach State at home. Of course, they also lost outright.  Cappers spend hours analyzing each game yet get tricked night after night by these guys.

     

    You know the truth but won't accept it. Have more use for consp. theories.

     
    buddha72
    buddha72
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 10:21 AM ET #3

    I think you are right.  There is really no other answer
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    I think you are right.  There is really no other answer
     
    CMoult83
    CMoult83
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 10:23 AM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by buddha72:

    I have a question for anyone who might have the answer?  Yesterday every capper in the right mind "knew" Alabama and FSU were the right side. Or I should say the teams that should win their respective game by 10 plus points. Even the "professionals" were all over both of these teams. The point spreads did not move all day as each of teams got pounded.

    How do the "oddsmakers" always know the outcome before the game? I have been betting for about a decade and have little use in conspiracy theories. Refs are being bought off etc. Perhaps this happens but I believe those are isolated situations in 2018.  I mean seriously how they know that Missouri is going to go into Alabama and win? Late night, everyone loved Long Beach State at home. Of course, they also lost outright.  Cappers spend hours analyzing each game yet get tricked night after night by these guys.


    The FSU line did move. It opened at 2.5 and was 4.5 by tip-off. Alabama's line didn't move. I agree that they knew with the FSU game, with the way the line was set and how both teams had been playing it was kind of obvious what the outcome of that one would be. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by buddha72:

    I have a question for anyone who might have the answer?  Yesterday every capper in the right mind "knew" Alabama and FSU were the right side. Or I should say the teams that should win their respective game by 10 plus points. Even the "professionals" were all over both of these teams. The point spreads did not move all day as each of teams got pounded.

    How do the "oddsmakers" always know the outcome before the game? I have been betting for about a decade and have little use in conspiracy theories. Refs are being bought off etc. Perhaps this happens but I believe those are isolated situations in 2018.  I mean seriously how they know that Missouri is going to go into Alabama and win? Late night, everyone loved Long Beach State at home. Of course, they also lost outright.  Cappers spend hours analyzing each game yet get tricked night after night by these guys.


    The FSU line did move. It opened at 2.5 and was 4.5 by tip-off. Alabama's line didn't move. I agree that they knew with the FSU game, with the way the line was set and how both teams had been playing it was kind of obvious what the outcome of that one would be. 
     
    MLdogs
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 10:38 AM ET #5

    They know outcome of every game more less.
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    They know outcome of every game more less.
     
    Sizzles1049
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 10:55 AM ET #6

    Bull,nobody knows. They have trends and detailed analysis. You can not predict humans. Did a player get a good nights rest, did a family member die, did you get into the zone. You can’t predict or know any outcome only estimate trends and current talent. 

    Not to say there is never collusion , it can occur but I don’t think it prevelent

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    Bull,nobody knows. They have trends and detailed analysis. You can not predict humans. Did a player get a good nights rest, did a family member die, did you get into the zone. You can’t predict or know any outcome only estimate trends and current talent. 

    Not to say there is never collusion , it can occur but I don’t think it prevelent

     
    PAPAWFRANK
    PAPAWFRANK
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 11:05 AM ET #7

    THEY PROBABLY KNOW WHEN THE LORD COMES BACK LOL 
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    THEY PROBABLY KNOW WHEN THE LORD COMES BACK LOL 
     
    mannyfrisco
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 11:17 AM ET #8

    I believe certain games are being monitored....about a week ago the NBA stated if gambling becomes legal ,  they want a piece of the action.  What does that tell you?  They know gambling is happening and they are getting some of that action but want to go legit if it happens.    I follow certain teams and strange things happen.  Many of these players will never see professional basketball.....this is their chance to make money, including refs.  It may not happen in every game but it's more rampant that what we could imagine.  Sports isn't all real....a lot of fantasy.  
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    I believe certain games are being monitored....about a week ago the NBA stated if gambling becomes legal ,  they want a piece of the action.  What does that tell you?  They know gambling is happening and they are getting some of that action but want to go legit if it happens.    I follow certain teams and strange things happen.  Many of these players will never see professional basketball.....this is their chance to make money, including refs.  It may not happen in every game but it's more rampant that what we could imagine.  Sports isn't all real....a lot of fantasy.  
     
    mannyfrisco
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 11:20 AM ET #9

    the money pit isn't bottomless....only so much you can charge for a hamburger, beer, ticket, jersey....eventually you will price yourself out...have to make money by other means.....
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    the money pit isn't bottomless....only so much you can charge for a hamburger, beer, ticket, jersey....eventually you will price yourself out...have to make money by other means.....
     
    MLdogs
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 11:33 AM ET #10

    U  have a valid point but during the course of the year I encounter handful of games that I know for sure whos going to win.and that means pound the underdog on the ml early and often
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    U  have a valid point but during the course of the year I encounter handful of games that I know for sure whos going to win.and that means pound the underdog on the ml early and often
     
    barneybeans
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 12:11 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by buddha72:

    I have a question for anyone who might have the answer?  Yesterday every capper in the right mind "knew" Alabama and FSU were the right side. Or I should say the teams that should win their respective game by 10 plus points. Even the "professionals" were all over both of these teams. The point spreads did not move all day as each of teams got pounded. How do the "oddsmakers" always know the outcome before the game? I have been betting for about a decade and have little use in conspiracy theories. Refs are being bought off etc. Perhaps this happens but I believe those are isolated situations in 2018.  I mean seriously how they know that Missouri is going to go into Alabama and win? Late night, everyone loved Long Beach State at home. Of course, they also lost outright.  Cappers spend hours analyzing each game yet get tricked night after night by these guys.
    Sometimes they don't know or the line moves on money and we don't really care about those games - sometimes a big bet is on the other side so they hold the line steady and take all that offset money and we all are thinking, "Hey! home come the line is not moving, everyone pounding the fav at -4 they should be laying 8? And look! the dog won outright!". But big bets enough to hold 'em were coming in on +4.

    But it just worked out that way. Also the books are afraid of getting middled after taking a lot of early dog action and don't pump up the fav but juice the line.

    But besides that there are book makers who do indeed take some sort of position on some games and this is due to, IMHO:

     

    1.) Super quantative math based on matchups that are tough to predict due to not enough data i nthe public or in sabermetrics.

    2.) Information from the inside the locker room, trainer or even the players.

     

    1.) Rich Roxborough was in an ESPN segment in the mid 80s, in a casino sportbook office - all about line making and I paraphrase, "OK everyone thinks Indiana should blow out Syracuse tonight by at least 10-15 but our numbers dictate that Syracuse matches up really well and blah blah blah they might win outright so we are going to hang Indiana at only -8 and take all of that Indiana money."

     

    I wish I could find this segment somewhere on the internet.

     

    2.) It should be no secret that loose lips not only sink ships but give an edge especially if the insider is in the locker room as a player/bench warmer, asst coach or trainer or towell boy.... privy to discussions and stuff not public, like two players at a frat party left early but were in the dorm smoking weed and drinking vodka until 4AM... -or- Our star guard's girlfriend is cheating on him and he's totally in a funk and the last time something like this happened to him he turned over the ball 20 times shot 20% and our backup guard had to be put in and today our back up guard has a really sore sprained ankle that no one knows about..." that insider makes a phone call and you know the rest.

     

    That's how they know.

     

    The aspects of #1 and #2 are enough to move any line by a few points but the lines don't move or even reverse. Like Gordon Gecko said, "If you're not inside you're outside".

     

    Again I think #2 only happens a once or twice a day across all betting sports pro and college where there is some angle that gets leaked. 

     

    I'm not a robot

    The pen is mightier than the pigs
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    Quote Originally Posted by buddha72:

    I have a question for anyone who might have the answer?  Yesterday every capper in the right mind "knew" Alabama and FSU were the right side. Or I should say the teams that should win their respective game by 10 plus points. Even the "professionals" were all over both of these teams. The point spreads did not move all day as each of teams got pounded. How do the "oddsmakers" always know the outcome before the game? I have been betting for about a decade and have little use in conspiracy theories. Refs are being bought off etc. Perhaps this happens but I believe those are isolated situations in 2018.  I mean seriously how they know that Missouri is going to go into Alabama and win? Late night, everyone loved Long Beach State at home. Of course, they also lost outright.  Cappers spend hours analyzing each game yet get tricked night after night by these guys.
    Sometimes they don't know or the line moves on money and we don't really care about those games - sometimes a big bet is on the other side so they hold the line steady and take all that offset money and we all are thinking, "Hey! home come the line is not moving, everyone pounding the fav at -4 they should be laying 8? And look! the dog won outright!". But big bets enough to hold 'em were coming in on +4.

    But it just worked out that way. Also the books are afraid of getting middled after taking a lot of early dog action and don't pump up the fav but juice the line.

    But besides that there are book makers who do indeed take some sort of position on some games and this is due to, IMHO:

     

    1.) Super quantative math based on matchups that are tough to predict due to not enough data i nthe public or in sabermetrics.

    2.) Information from the inside the locker room, trainer or even the players.

     

    1.) Rich Roxborough was in an ESPN segment in the mid 80s, in a casino sportbook office - all about line making and I paraphrase, "OK everyone thinks Indiana should blow out Syracuse tonight by at least 10-15 but our numbers dictate that Syracuse matches up really well and blah blah blah they might win outright so we are going to hang Indiana at only -8 and take all of that Indiana money."

     

    I wish I could find this segment somewhere on the internet.

     

    2.) It should be no secret that loose lips not only sink ships but give an edge especially if the insider is in the locker room as a player/bench warmer, asst coach or trainer or towell boy.... privy to discussions and stuff not public, like two players at a frat party left early but were in the dorm smoking weed and drinking vodka until 4AM... -or- Our star guard's girlfriend is cheating on him and he's totally in a funk and the last time something like this happened to him he turned over the ball 20 times shot 20% and our backup guard had to be put in and today our back up guard has a really sore sprained ankle that no one knows about..." that insider makes a phone call and you know the rest.

     

    That's how they know.

     

    The aspects of #1 and #2 are enough to move any line by a few points but the lines don't move or even reverse. Like Gordon Gecko said, "If you're not inside you're outside".

     

    Again I think #2 only happens a once or twice a day across all betting sports pro and college where there is some angle that gets leaked. 

     

    I'm not a robot

     
    barneybeans
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 12:19 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by barneybeans:

    QUOTE Originally Posted by buddha72: I have a question for anyone who might have the answer?  Yesterday every capper in the right mind "knew" Alabama and FSU were the right side. Or I should say the teams that should win their respective game by 10 plus points. Even the "professionals" were all over both of these teams. The point spreads did not move all day as each of teams got pounded. How do the "oddsmakers" always know the outcome before the game? I have been betting for about a decade and have little use in conspiracy theories. Refs are being bought off etc. Perhaps this happens but I believe those are isolated situations in 2018.  I mean seriously how they know that Missouri is going to go into Alabama and win? Late night, everyone loved Long Beach State at home. Of course, they also lost outright.  Cappers spend hours analyzing each game yet get tricked night after night by these guys.Sometimes they don't know or the line moves on money and we don't really care about those games - sometimes a big bet is on the other side so they hold the line steady and take all that offset money and we all are thinking, "Hey! home come the line is not moving, everyone pounding the fav at -4 they should be laying 8? And look! the dog won outright!". But big bets enough to hold 'em were coming in on +4. But it just worked out that way. Also the books are afraid of getting middled after taking a lot of early dog action and don't pump up the fav but juice the line. But besides that there are book makers who do indeed take some sort of position on some games and this is due to, IMHO:   1.) Super quantative math based on matchups that are tough to predict due to not enough data i nthe public or in sabermetrics. 2.) Information from the inside the locker room, trainer or even the players.   1.) Rich Roxborough was in an ESPN segment in the mid 80s, in a casino sportbook office - all about line making and I paraphrase, "OK everyone thinks Indiana should blow out Syracuse tonight by at least 10-15 but our numbers dictate that Syracuse matches up really well and blah blah blah they might win outright so we are going to hang Indiana at only -8 and take all of that Indiana money."   I wish I could find this segment somewhere on the internet.   2.) It should be no secret that loose lips not only sink ships but give an edge especially if the insider is in the locker room as a player/bench warmer, asst coach or trainer or towell boy.... privy to discussions and stuff not public, like two players at a frat party left early but were in the dorm smoking weed and drinking vodka until 4AM... -or- Our star guard's girlfriend is cheating on him and he's totally in a funk and the last time something like this happened to him he turned over the ball 20 times shot 20% and our backup guard had to be put in and today our back up guard has a really sore sprained ankle that no one knows about..." that insider makes a phone call and you know the rest.   That's how they know.   The aspects of #1 and #2 are enough to move any line by a few points but the lines don't move or even reverse. Like Gordon Gecko said, "If you're not inside you're outside".   Again I think #2 only happens a once or twice a day across all betting sports pro and college where there is some angle that gets leaked.    I'm not a robot

     

    This should have read: "Also the books are afraid of getting middled after taking a lot of early FAV action and don't pump up the DOG but juice the line. "

    The pen is mightier than the pigs
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    Quote Originally Posted by barneybeans:

    QUOTE Originally Posted by buddha72: I have a question for anyone who might have the answer?  Yesterday every capper in the right mind "knew" Alabama and FSU were the right side. Or I should say the teams that should win their respective game by 10 plus points. Even the "professionals" were all over both of these teams. The point spreads did not move all day as each of teams got pounded. How do the "oddsmakers" always know the outcome before the game? I have been betting for about a decade and have little use in conspiracy theories. Refs are being bought off etc. Perhaps this happens but I believe those are isolated situations in 2018.  I mean seriously how they know that Missouri is going to go into Alabama and win? Late night, everyone loved Long Beach State at home. Of course, they also lost outright.  Cappers spend hours analyzing each game yet get tricked night after night by these guys.Sometimes they don't know or the line moves on money and we don't really care about those games - sometimes a big bet is on the other side so they hold the line steady and take all that offset money and we all are thinking, "Hey! home come the line is not moving, everyone pounding the fav at -4 they should be laying 8? And look! the dog won outright!". But big bets enough to hold 'em were coming in on +4. But it just worked out that way. Also the books are afraid of getting middled after taking a lot of early dog action and don't pump up the fav but juice the line. But besides that there are book makers who do indeed take some sort of position on some games and this is due to, IMHO:   1.) Super quantative math based on matchups that are tough to predict due to not enough data i nthe public or in sabermetrics. 2.) Information from the inside the locker room, trainer or even the players.   1.) Rich Roxborough was in an ESPN segment in the mid 80s, in a casino sportbook office - all about line making and I paraphrase, "OK everyone thinks Indiana should blow out Syracuse tonight by at least 10-15 but our numbers dictate that Syracuse matches up really well and blah blah blah they might win outright so we are going to hang Indiana at only -8 and take all of that Indiana money."   I wish I could find this segment somewhere on the internet.   2.) It should be no secret that loose lips not only sink ships but give an edge especially if the insider is in the locker room as a player/bench warmer, asst coach or trainer or towell boy.... privy to discussions and stuff not public, like two players at a frat party left early but were in the dorm smoking weed and drinking vodka until 4AM... -or- Our star guard's girlfriend is cheating on him and he's totally in a funk and the last time something like this happened to him he turned over the ball 20 times shot 20% and our backup guard had to be put in and today our back up guard has a really sore sprained ankle that no one knows about..." that insider makes a phone call and you know the rest.   That's how they know.   The aspects of #1 and #2 are enough to move any line by a few points but the lines don't move or even reverse. Like Gordon Gecko said, "If you're not inside you're outside".   Again I think #2 only happens a once or twice a day across all betting sports pro and college where there is some angle that gets leaked.    I'm not a robot

     

    This should have read: "Also the books are afraid of getting middled after taking a lot of early FAV action and don't pump up the DOG but juice the line. "

     
    barneybeans
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 12:47 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by Sizzles1049:

    Bull,nobody knows. They have trends and detailed analysis. You can not predict humans. Did a player get a good nights rest, did a family member die, did you get into the zone. You can’t predict or know any outcome only estimate trends and current talent.  Not to say there is never collusion , it can occur but I don’t think it prevelent
    but it happens and we don't know about it. This is a good angle that I did not read before making my post that is in agreement here.

     

    Sizzles? Really?  That's what my 4 year old daughter named our cat

     

    I'm not a robot

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sizzles1049:

    Bull,nobody knows. They have trends and detailed analysis. You can not predict humans. Did a player get a good nights rest, did a family member die, did you get into the zone. You can’t predict or know any outcome only estimate trends and current talent.  Not to say there is never collusion , it can occur but I don’t think it prevelent
    but it happens and we don't know about it. This is a good angle that I did not read before making my post that is in agreement here.

     

    Sizzles? Really?  That's what my 4 year old daughter named our cat

     

    I'm not a robot

     
    LEGITSHIP
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 1:14 PM ET #14

    They have the best of the best equipment super computers. They factor in EVERYTHING ! They keep Changing systems up to screw people who don’t have money management discipline. They set a line juicy enough to bite the wrong side and sometimes they throw out games to make you over think. Huge psychological game. Then you have trolls, moles working for the  books to persuade you. 20 years of seeing the ups and downs. Watch casino. Dinero talks about how he researched a game

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    They have the best of the best equipment super computers. They factor in EVERYTHING ! They keep Changing systems up to screw people who don’t have money management discipline. They set a line juicy enough to bite the wrong side and sometimes they throw out games to make you over think. Huge psychological game. Then you have trolls, moles working for the  books to persuade you. 20 years of seeing the ups and downs. Watch casino. Dinero talks about how he researched a game

     
    umgmu
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 1:27 PM ET #15

    I worked for 2 nba teams, managed my college bball team and my nationally ranked hs basketball team...people in the know  'know' certain things.
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    I worked for 2 nba teams, managed my college bball team and my nationally ranked hs basketball team...people in the know  'know' certain things.
     
    CMoult83
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 1:29 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by LEGITSHIP:

    They have the best of the best equipment super computers. They factor in EVERYTHING ! They keep Changing systems up to screw people who don’t have money management discipline. They set a line juicy enough to bite the wrong side and sometimes they throw out games to make you over think. Huge psychological game. Then you have trolls, moles working for the  books to persuade you. 20 years of seeing the ups and downs. Watch casino. Dinero talks about how he researched a game


    Spot on sir, I completely agree with the psychological angle. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by LEGITSHIP:

    They have the best of the best equipment super computers. They factor in EVERYTHING ! They keep Changing systems up to screw people who don’t have money management discipline. They set a line juicy enough to bite the wrong side and sometimes they throw out games to make you over think. Huge psychological game. Then you have trolls, moles working for the  books to persuade you. 20 years of seeing the ups and downs. Watch casino. Dinero talks about how he researched a game


    Spot on sir, I completely agree with the psychological angle. 
     
    MikeMed
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 1:37 PM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by Sizzles1049:

    Bull,nobody knows. They have trends and detailed analysis. You can not predict humans. Did a player get a good nights rest, did a family member die, did you get into the zone. You can’t predict or know any outcome only estimate trends and current talent.  Not to say there is never collusion , it can occur but I don’t think it prevelent

     

    Absolutely correct an_light

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sizzles1049:

    Bull,nobody knows. They have trends and detailed analysis. You can not predict humans. Did a player get a good nights rest, did a family member die, did you get into the zone. You can’t predict or know any outcome only estimate trends and current talent.  Not to say there is never collusion , it can occur but I don’t think it prevelent

     

    Absolutely correct an_light

     
    barneybeans
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 1:41 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by LEGITSHIP:

    They have the best of the best equipment super computers. They factor in EVERYTHING ! They keep Changing systems up to screw people who don’t have money management discipline. They set a line juicy enough to bite the wrong side and sometimes they throw out games to make you over think. Huge psychological game. Then you have trolls, moles working for the  books to persuade you. 20 years of seeing the ups and downs. Watch casino. Dinero talks about how he researched a game

    They also employ exactly the opposite - factors that cannot be measured that scouts that attend all of these games can see - a matchup edge that cannot be determined by super computers, and sabermetrics or anything that can even be measured actually - these folks may be able to impart their findings to odds makers and get paid. 

    A grossly exaggerated example but run with me here:

    Center on Team A is a great rebounder on both sides of the court and his rebounding gives so many second opportunities etc... you know the deal, and on team B their center is exactly the same - the two using player sabermetrics should cancel each other out, neutralized, going player by player to determine the outcome of the game.

    HOWEVER.. and I am totally fabricating something ridiculous just to illustrate a point:

    Center on team A is young and immature, a softie about his mother and the center on Team B is a trash talker who loves to raz other players about their mother.

    Scouts at the game know this about both players and in the past a few mother jokes on the court had a negative impact on Team A's center and his rebounds on both sides of the court were halved.

    SOMETHING like this super screwey example I am fabricating cannot be measured by any metric - except when analyzing these two centers' past history vs each other - where there is none actually - just the know how of the scouts who think this is an edge for team B.

    This type of arcane knowledge is something astute insiders would know and bettors and super computers would never know. Rebounds halved by the star rebounder? That's worth a few points.

    Phone call to the Vegas point man and team B who was getting +5 is now +3 even though there is even action. Team B wins outright, out rebounding 2-1.

    That's how Vegas knows - they pay people for information.

    "The most valuable commodity I know of is information" - Gordon Gecko 
    The pen is mightier than the pigs
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    Quote Originally Posted by LEGITSHIP:

    They have the best of the best equipment super computers. They factor in EVERYTHING ! They keep Changing systems up to screw people who don’t have money management discipline. They set a line juicy enough to bite the wrong side and sometimes they throw out games to make you over think. Huge psychological game. Then you have trolls, moles working for the  books to persuade you. 20 years of seeing the ups and downs. Watch casino. Dinero talks about how he researched a game

    They also employ exactly the opposite - factors that cannot be measured that scouts that attend all of these games can see - a matchup edge that cannot be determined by super computers, and sabermetrics or anything that can even be measured actually - these folks may be able to impart their findings to odds makers and get paid. 

    A grossly exaggerated example but run with me here:

    Center on Team A is a great rebounder on both sides of the court and his rebounding gives so many second opportunities etc... you know the deal, and on team B their center is exactly the same - the two using player sabermetrics should cancel each other out, neutralized, going player by player to determine the outcome of the game.

    HOWEVER.. and I am totally fabricating something ridiculous just to illustrate a point:

    Center on team A is young and immature, a softie about his mother and the center on Team B is a trash talker who loves to raz other players about their mother.

    Scouts at the game know this about both players and in the past a few mother jokes on the court had a negative impact on Team A's center and his rebounds on both sides of the court were halved.

    SOMETHING like this super screwey example I am fabricating cannot be measured by any metric - except when analyzing these two centers' past history vs each other - where there is none actually - just the know how of the scouts who think this is an edge for team B.

    This type of arcane knowledge is something astute insiders would know and bettors and super computers would never know. Rebounds halved by the star rebounder? That's worth a few points.

    Phone call to the Vegas point man and team B who was getting +5 is now +3 even though there is even action. Team B wins outright, out rebounding 2-1.

    That's how Vegas knows - they pay people for information.

    "The most valuable commodity I know of is information" - Gordon Gecko 
     
    MLdogs
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 1:59 PM ET #19

    First and foremost forget about point spread never bet on a -110 or the - money.pts spread is just a scam by bookies to get an equal action on both sides it does no indicate by how many poits team should win
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    First and foremost forget about point spread never bet on a -110 or the - money.pts spread is just a scam by bookies to get an equal action on both sides it does no indicate by how many poits team should win
     
    dreski89
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 2:17 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by LEGITSHIP:

    They have the best of the best equipment super computers. They factor in EVERYTHING ! They keep Changing systems up to screw people who don’t have money management discipline. They set a line juicy enough to bite the wrong side and sometimes they throw out games to make you over think. Huge psychological game. Then you have trolls, moles working for the  books to persuade you. 20 years of seeing the ups and downs. Watch casino. Dinero talks about how he researched a game

    i feel this is very true first few weeks of CBB over firsthalfs were easy they adjusted the lines up a couple points for the most part and the under is seeming like the plays for the most part
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    Quote Originally Posted by LEGITSHIP:

    They have the best of the best equipment super computers. They factor in EVERYTHING ! They keep Changing systems up to screw people who don’t have money management discipline. They set a line juicy enough to bite the wrong side and sometimes they throw out games to make you over think. Huge psychological game. Then you have trolls, moles working for the  books to persuade you. 20 years of seeing the ups and downs. Watch casino. Dinero talks about how he researched a game

    i feel this is very true first few weeks of CBB over firsthalfs were easy they adjusted the lines up a couple points for the most part and the under is seeming like the plays for the most part
     
    RebelTell2
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 3:08 PM ET #21

    Why do oddsmakers "need to know" anything other than the fact that they have put the correct situational price on a match up between two teams? If you think about it, you'll realize that the answer is, they don't. Most bettors never understand this.

    If you smell a rat in a line, often times it's in your perception of the spot, not in the line itself. Hope this make sense.

    BOL,
    RT2


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    Why do oddsmakers "need to know" anything other than the fact that they have put the correct situational price on a match up between two teams? If you think about it, you'll realize that the answer is, they don't. Most bettors never understand this.

    If you smell a rat in a line, often times it's in your perception of the spot, not in the line itself. Hope this make sense.

    BOL,
    RT2


     
    koua38
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 3:30 PM ET #22

    I have a 7 team parlay last night and my only loss was Long Beach St ML. Tell me how sports is not RIGGED...
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    I have a 7 team parlay last night and my only loss was Long Beach St ML. Tell me how sports is not RIGGED...
     
    barneybeans
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 3:48 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:

    Why do oddsmakers "need to know" anything other than the fact that they have put the correct situational price on a match up between two teams? If you think about it, you'll realize that the answer is, they don't. Most bettors never understand this.If you smell a rat in a line, often times it's in your perception of the spot, not in the line itself. Hope this make sense.BOL,RT2
    yeah but uh....

    You missed the original post(the first one in this thread): "Yesterday every capper in the right mind "knew" Alabama and FSU were the right side. Or I should say the teams that should win their respective game by 10 plus points. Even the "professionals" were all over both of these teams. The point spreads did not move all day as each of teams got pounded."

     

    He is asking why the lines on both Florida State nor Bama did not really move - not if the line represented your "correct situational price on a match up". Pinny and Heritage were 5/5.5 all day on the Bama game.

     

    No one, and I mean no one bet Mizzou nor Wake (OK one capper here had Wake). 

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    Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:

    Why do oddsmakers "need to know" anything other than the fact that they have put the correct situational price on a match up between two teams? If you think about it, you'll realize that the answer is, they don't. Most bettors never understand this.If you smell a rat in a line, often times it's in your perception of the spot, not in the line itself. Hope this make sense.BOL,RT2
    yeah but uh....

    You missed the original post(the first one in this thread): "Yesterday every capper in the right mind "knew" Alabama and FSU were the right side. Or I should say the teams that should win their respective game by 10 plus points. Even the "professionals" were all over both of these teams. The point spreads did not move all day as each of teams got pounded."

     

    He is asking why the lines on both Florida State nor Bama did not really move - not if the line represented your "correct situational price on a match up". Pinny and Heritage were 5/5.5 all day on the Bama game.

     

    No one, and I mean no one bet Mizzou nor Wake (OK one capper here had Wake). 

     
    barneybeans
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 3:50 PM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by umgmu:

    I worked for 2 nba teams, managed my college bball team and my nationally ranked hs basketball team...people in the know  'know' certain things
    .
    No truer words have been spoken. And these things, intangible, no measurable things are not stored ona super computer or stat anywhere.

    The pen is mightier than the pigs
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    Quote Originally Posted by umgmu:

    I worked for 2 nba teams, managed my college bball team and my nationally ranked hs basketball team...people in the know  'know' certain things
    .
    No truer words have been spoken. And these things, intangible, no measurable things are not stored ona super computer or stat anywhere.

     
     
    Mancity
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2018 - 3:53 PM ET #25

    They dont. It's just luck brah. 
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    They dont. It's just luck brah. 
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