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Holmey's $$$$ Thread SUNDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.28.16

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Posted: #51
Nothing really standing out as a $$$$ play for me today. However, I do like Iona 1H at -6.5. There was a write up posted about Iona earlier in this thread and I like everything he said. I expect them to come out firing trying to put this one away early. Gimmie Iona 1h and Iowa -4 in a little 2 game parlay.   
 
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Posted: #52
Can someone recommend a good sports book. Iim in the U.S.
 
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Posted: #53
I also like Tulsa for no$$$$

Tulsa has a way better ats overall record and a winning one. Better su record. Memphis has a losing su n ats record.

Trend flavoring Tulsa plus they are needing to win out to get that chance to be #1 so a needed win today for them. I love this angle when spread is a pk or -2 so all i need for them is win or win by 2 since a basket is 2 points for a win but i also take my chance for a moose if it is a close game and lose by one but i rather for tulsa lose su if that is the case. It also shows that tulsa is weak.

This one is a fav away game, my arch enemy but for -2 why not?

My only 2 ncaab games for today picking myself. Will be tailing u guys some n thanks for reading n posting. As expected that colorado line moved so early buy was our value there. No fear, i would buy them up to 9.

Parlay my co + tulsa too.

Good luck today ladies n germs
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Posted: #54
Last play on a short card for me in the nba. To beat cleve barely in an off night for derozen 1-11 shooting. I do not see him skunking again 2x in a row. To is 2 games behind first place clev so they want to win here. Why line so small? Maybe det play well at home? Who det has? Only fear drummand but what if he has an off night then what?

Ill take my chance with a small spread n take the better team here who beat Cleveland on an off night.

Nba give me to -1.5
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by Bigleftygolfer:

This board has helped me so much I felt the need to contribute something. (Although it is a contrarian play) I love Colorado today and that would have been my $$$$ but I did not want to tail on my first official prediction. I wanted to make an official $$$$$ play that I doubt people considered so here is the contrarian play based totally on math and line movement.

Here is the key stat on January 30th, 2016 the Mercer Bears beat UNCG at home 81-67.

The current line has been moving since Mercer has been awful as of late so I think there is some real value taking this at Mercer +4.5 also I calculate my own picks slightly differently I have access to a HPC lab where I run deep algorithmic based calculations. Although I never feel really strong until I get 75% value the probability of mercer to cover according to my algo is 72%. My suggestion is pick right before the game and you may get +5

For full disclosure here are the positives trends for UNCG that I am going with the math and betting against.

UNCG Spartans are: (versus terrible trends with mercer)
* 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Southern Conference teams.
* 8-1 in their last 9 home games with a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

My first $$$$$ pick Mercer Bears +4.5 over UNCG

I also like and will be playing
Colorado -7
Creighton -13.5
And value play parlay (math is favorable and if Colorado covers you can hedge for the middle which shows 67% probability)
Colorado -6 {-130}(purchased full point)
California -350 money line]

With the help of this board and my own picks I am 12-3 this week with two of my three losses being on NHL and Soccer both of which I have an insufficient amount of trend data. Thanks guys for all of your insight this has been a great week for me thanks to the people,on this thread! 

As of this post mercer is leading by ten (+15 with the hook purchased) I hope it holds up and can return the favor for everybody that made me money this week!

Fingers crossed!
 
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Posted: #56
Hey guys new to sports betting and the thread and your guys picks have really helped me out. I'm not ready to get into $$$ picks but I do have a pick that I am doing today and wanted to here your guys thoughts. This afternoon Tulsa goes into Memphis to play the Tigers on senior night. Senior night for the Tigers but I feel Tulsa should easily cover the -2 spread for the game. Tulsa has been red hot winning 5 of the last 6 with their one loss coming as a heartbreaker at Uconn. Tulsa has taken down the other top teams in the confence during this streak which include SMU, Cinncinati, Temple and Houston. Memphis played SMU very tough last game but yet couldn't pull out a victory as they have lost 4 out of there last 5 to some of the top teams as well. Tulsa has something to play for as well as their a team on the bubble and they are jockeying for a top seed for the AAC tournament. In the last 6 games Tulsa is 5-1 ATS while in the last 5 games Memphis is 1-4 ATS. Simple with the spread being -2 this game is basically a pick em and I'm taking a hot Tulsa team that has something to play for compared to a stuggling Memphis team.
 
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Posted: #57
My $$$ pick is Colorado -7.5

A win for Colorado would clinch a winning record in the PAC-12 and keep them in the Bid Dance picture.

They beat Arizona and Arizona State lost to Arizona by 38 points!
Colorado has beaten both USC and Oregon State and Arizona St.  lost to both teams.

Colorado averages more points in offense and their average is also better in defense (points allowed). Short and to the point.
 
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Posted: #58
I'm taking Tulsa -2
 
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Posted: #59
Valparaiso 1h -3 $$$$

I am done getting the short end of the stick with 3 losses in a row by a combined 2.5 points total. This one is my lock to make up for it. Absolutely love this play today. Will win with ease. 

Valpo is the #1 1st half road team in the country when it comes to margin of victory. And while Green Bay is a solid team at home. They are a better 2nd half team then they are a 1st half team. I believe if you are playing the first half in this game the home court advantage for Green Bay is completely out the window based on how these teams have played this year. 

Valpo-dominating 1st half team. Green Bay-good 2nd half team.

If we are throwing the home court advantage away. You are getting a Valpo team which is quite simply a lot better team than Green Bay for only -3 in the first half. Valpo is ranked 31st in the country, meanwhile Green Bay is 142nd according to kenpom. 

This is a very simple write-up. Usually I go a lot more into detail about the match-up but I feel about 90% on this game. I am a rare 2.5 unit better (bankroll nut) but this is one of those plays this year for me I am in love with. I don't believe you need to go into much detail to explain this play. 

Valpo -3 first half, this is the best play on the board today. Best of luck guys. 
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

$$$$ Iowa Hawkeyes -4

Iowa heads to Columbus today for a match up at Ohio State. What Iowa doesn't have going for them in this game is on the road, their ranked and Ohio State isn't and Uthoff looked sluggish last game.  However, both teams here really need this W.  Numbers match up with both KP and Sagarin (-7 and -5 Iowa respectively).  Iowa has shown how potent they can be offensively while OSU has struggled on that end of the floor.  Ohio State does play hard and are pretty scrappy but I think Ohio State took a huge hit with Tate being out for the season and it showed against Michigan State. Tate was the 3rd best offensive and 2nd best defensive player on this team statistically but many would argue he was the teams hardest worker.  Iowa has not been playing well recently but somehow only sit 1.5 games back of first place in the Big Ten.  Coincidentally with a win here today they will get a shot this week for sole possession of first place when they play the Hoosiers.  Iowa will not be looking ahead to the Hoosiers because without a win here today that game means nothing.  

$$$$ Iowa Hawkeyes -4



 
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Posted: #61

Quote Originally Posted by milagrosman:

USC
Great thread....I am a big rugby fan...is it permissible to post my bets on rugby games on this thread...
Thanks.

Welcome!  Sure, rugby is permissible as long as the bets are available on the regular sportsbooks.  If we can bet it, and its under -129, then add them to the thread!  Thanks!

 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by poopdollar:

$$$$ Play Arizona St. +8

Way too many of you are on Colorado. Usually when the line seems too good to be true....IT IS. Arizona St. is getting tremendous value here with losers of their last 3, and also 0-3 ATS. Colorado on the other hand is getting too much credit for the Arizona win. I see this as the Sun Devils are due for a cover at the very least. Throw the stats out the window as they mean nothing. I've said this many times, but Vegas uses those stats better than you can on your best day. It's funny how half of you rip off stats and trends that mean nothing when it really comes down to it. You're just trying to fill up the page and support your pick. 

I was 6-1-1 yesterday with an overall record of 23-13-5 on my own separate thread.

Use this as a lesson such as your IPFW megaload yesterday.

I'll start off by saying that I don't look at stats or any ATS or anything like that when I make my picks.  I know what I know, I look at the lines, and I jump on what looks like its in my favor.  I have watched entire ASU and Colorado games at least 15 times each this year, and this line looks like a winner to me.  That's why I bet it.  I don't care one bit about stats.  I only bet what I know.  I tell EVERYBODY to stay away from "capping stats" because they don't do anything except help you convince yourself to make a bet.  Your eyes are always a better tool than anything you will find on a website.

As for the "everyone is on it" strategy, I don't see how 8 people on some random message board posting "I am on Colorado also" can effect how a game is going to play out, but everyone "caps" the way they want.  I don't care about anyone else's bets.  I care if others win, but what they bet on has no effect on how I make my bets.  That makes no sense to me.

Also, the "IPFW megaload yesterday" you mention is not from this thread and I have no idea what you are talking about.  There were 15 $$$$'s posted yesterday and ZERO of them were on IPFW. 

If you are talking about the "IPFW megaload" the thread clearly had on Thursday, then I will give you that one.  That was by far the most one-sided this thread has ever been on a single play in the month I have been here.  I think at least 90% of the thread was on that play.  Of course, it was the easiest winner of the day and everyone cashed.

 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by Bigleftygolfer:

This board has helped me so much I felt the need to contribute something. (Although it is a contrarian play) I love Colorado today and that would have been my $$$$ but I did not want to tail on my first official prediction. I wanted to make an official $$$$$ play that I doubt people considered so here is the contrarian play based totally on math and line movement.Here is the key stat on January 30th, 2016 the Mercer Bears beat UNCG at home 81-67.The current line has been moving since Mercer has been awful as of late so I think there is some real value taking this at Mercer +4.5 also I calculate my own picks slightly differently I have access to a HPC lab where I run deep algorithmic based calculations. Although I never feel really strong until I get 75% value the probability of mercer to cover according to my algo is 72%. My suggestion is pick right before the game and you may get +5For full disclosure here are the positives trends for UNCG that I am going with the math and betting against.UNCG Spartans are: (versus terrible trends with mercer)* 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.* 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Southern Conference teams.* 8-1 in their last 9 home games with a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.My first $$$$$ pick Mercer Bears +4.5 over UNCGI also like and will be playingColorado -7Creighton -13.5And value play parlay (math is favorable and if Colorado covers you can hedge for the middle which shows 67% probability)Colorado -6 {-130}(purchased full point)California -350 money line]With the help of this board and my own picks I am 12-3 this week with two of my three losses being on NHL and Soccer both of which I have an insufficient amount of trend data. Thanks guys for all of your insight this has been a great week for me thanks to the people,on this thread!

This game was a little closer than it should have been but a cover is a cover congrats to everybody that trailed me on this one! I only post when I see high value plays so expect less than three a month but I did like this one and had it circled assuming that vegas was going to go with recent trend data vs raw numbers. Luckily mercer got the points and it was a good play! Good luck to everybody today!!! Keep the money train rolling!
 
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Posted: #64
Valpo 6 turnovers and have given up 9 offensive rebounds 10 minutes in. Despite that only down 1. Sheesh never easy.
 
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Posted: #65

Quote Originally Posted by Kaner:

Holmey and other Posters,

Would like to say thank you for all you guys do. I do not post often but i really appreciate threads like this. Always great to hear others opinions.

Thanks Kaner.  Glad you could benefit.  Thanks fro the post!

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

Good luck today guys.

Go City!!!


Like the under in the Barca match too, but not recommended for the faint of heart.  Torture really, betting an under in a Barca match, they always have so many chances. But, their games DO go under sometimes.  
 

 

Glad they won, but they should have won that game 5 different times.  Friggin' Sterling is trash.  The guy is useless.  I'd rather have Navas in there every game.

 
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Posted: #67
Holmey


Poops - Show some class next time. NO offense, but I haven't seen you prove anything. BOL on your plays.

I for one, use certain stats, KP and the eye test of games I have seen. I watched a lot of Big 10 and Summit ball as both are in my backyard. Watched alot of MAAC.. I have seen almost every ND game. I watch other late night games when time permits. 

We all have our own ways, etc. To come in here and belittle others ways of doing things lacks class. You do your plays your way, others will do theirs, their way.

I am on Minnesota, Tulsa, Colorado later. My $$$$ play:

Nevada -2' $$$$$ play

I like good home teams versus bad road teams that they lost too earlier in the season. Heck CSU has owned Nevada recently. Oliver has been great rebounding for Nevada. One reason they are the second best D in the MWC. CSU has the worst defense, though top offense. Coleman is probably out (why the line is small). But, they are winning right now and CSU has been losing. This, IMO, is a HUGE game for Nevada. They are doing great ATS right now and same for conference play (yes, I stat I do use, that others do not). CSU has lost four straight and it will be five. I will take the small line with the home team.
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by poutyprince:

First $$$ pick ever Duke PickemPitt 0-6 vs top 25 teams losing by an average of 11.5 pointsTheir best home wins are syracuse and davidsonDuke coming together at the right timePoint guard Thornton growing up both offensively and defensivelyIngram may be the best player in college, but will definitely be the best player in this gameWith UnC looming Duke cannot afford a letdownMy system says Duke should be a 4.5-5 point favorite, yet its a pickemI am an admitted Duke homer, but have no problem betting against them when i get edge.   The edge is with them this time......Lock me up for a maiden voyage!


All these other great cappers here and I tailed you...word of advice don't give any picks on Duke games
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by Dark_Mcgwire:

$$$$ Play - Seton Hall Pirates +2.5

One trend stands out to me, Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams with winning road records. Both teams are rolling: Xavier just beat #1 Nova this week at home and Seton Hall has won 7 of 8. But I'm hoping for a let down from Xavier. Isaiah Whitehead is finally living up to his hype, and I think he'll lead Seton Hall to a win, but I'll take the points. Xavier dominates teams on the boards, but I think Seton Hall has the bigs to hang with XU.



Bang
 
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Posted: #70
As a lurker of this thread, just want to say I appreciate all that you guys do.  It's very useful. 

 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

Glad they won, but they should have won that game 5 different times.  Friggin' Sterling is trash.  The guy is useless.  I'd rather have Navas in there every game.


I hate Sterling, totally overrated.  Can't believe they couldn't get 2 goals, so many chances.  Oh well.  
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


I hate Sterling, totally overrated.  Can't believe they couldn't get 2 goals, so many chances.  Oh well.  

Yeah, there was a clear PK left out there and Sterling should have scored at least 3 times.  Not a big deal as they got the trophy, but that is a tired team and it would have been really nice to not have to play that extra 30.  I guess the good news is that they play Liverpool on Wednesday again anyway, so they will be tired too.

Really wish Leicester hadn't gotten that late goal to get that 3 points.  Would have been great if they could have dropped 2 there......

 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by Moose72:

Can someone recommend a good sports book. Iim in the U.S.

Do yourself a favor, Don't use "TOPBET" you'll be sorry, you wait forever to get paid, I'm still waiting after winning the super bowl.
 
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Posted: #74
The tulsa game is starting to look like the okc thunders game. Was worried about tulsa being down big for a minute. They just came back to have a better contesting game now.

Lets go no$$$$
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Posted: #75
I see why usc homeslice is on colorado. Weird how this thread he did not ask if josh scott is playing. Lol.
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