Posted:
#1
One of the old pros back in the day told me betting sports is like playing poker. Playing well is not enough, to win over the long term you must know your opponent. Making a line is basic and fundamental. It is what everyone is graded on, win lose or draw. However, he also told me that much like in poker, you must know your opponent. In this case the bookmaker. In this case he schooled me years ago, not only do you have to make your line, but you also must know what the bookmakers line will be. Almost like a cat and mouse game. Like in poker, chess and everything else you must be not one, but 5 steps ahead of your opponent.
So if anyone is interested in Tuesdays Opening College Numbers before they are actually posted, or for that matter before Mondays games are even played, here they are. Just a glimpse of what the old pro taught me and what I use in this craft.
The lines are not here to predict final score differential, but in 85% of the time will point you in the right direction. Having a line, before the Man posts the line, will let you bet into the best available and not have you being had hook line and sinker. Bet in to the best, and don't be afraid to pass.
There are only two games that stand out to me BASED on the Projected Opening line. It is
Texas Tech ( If so that they should be offered the 17)
Drake ( If so that they should be offered the13)
I pass many games because based on this model I look for a spread differential of 15 or more. Many times I don't back the favorite, mostly the dog, or because some teams are just horrible on the road.
James Madison also looks tempting, but I will refrain from taking a 10 road favorite. at least in this case.
I will post who I am playing when Tuesdays lines come out, approximately 10pm EST Monday night.Or most likely early Tuesday morning.
Gl to all
Counting The Deck
0
thanks.
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