Tuesday recap: Awful job by me. Sorry to everyone that tailed, even if it was bound to happen. GT is too undisciplined to seriously defend for 40 minutes against the solid screen offense NW runs, and Houston got owned on the FT line shooting 47% themselves while fouling LSU's only good FT shooter 8 times in the final minute to blow any chance at a backdoor cover. Not betting line variation anymore, just sticking with matchups because that's what got me to this point.
Wednesday notes: odu less than a poss, usf small dog, xav/miaOH under, pc 6-8, fla 5-8,
bc small fav, wisc 4-7, vt 4, rice 7, ark almost DD, uni small dog, byu
2-4, SoILL poss dog, vandy 6-8, psu 3-5, duke 9, sdsu 6-9
Leans: PC -7.5 UF -4 NCSU +8 Purdue +2.5 ARK -7.5 Rice +9 So ILL +1.5 UMD pk SDSU -6.5
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11 of the 15 underdog covers won SU
Tuesday recap: Awful job by me. Sorry to everyone that tailed, even if it was bound to happen. GT is too undisciplined to seriously defend for 40 minutes against the solid screen offense NW runs, and Houston got owned on the FT line shooting 47% themselves while fouling LSU's only good FT shooter 8 times in the final minute to blow any chance at a backdoor cover. Not betting line variation anymore, just sticking with matchups because that's what got me to this point.
Wednesday notes: odu less than a poss, usf small dog, xav/miaOH under, pc 6-8, fla 5-8,
bc small fav, wisc 4-7, vt 4, rice 7, ark almost DD, uni small dog, byu
2-4, SoILL poss dog, vandy 6-8, psu 3-5, duke 9, sdsu 6-9
Leans: PC -7.5 UF -4 NCSU +8 Purdue +2.5 ARK -7.5 Rice +9 So ILL +1.5 UMD pk SDSU -6.5
GWarn- I fell into the same trap with GTech last night....I will be playing against NWestern on the road vs physical teams that play in your face D.....towards the end of the game (which Nwestern didn't pull starters) GTech started to play hard physical D and NWestern couldn't get a shot off.....
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GWarn- I fell into the same trap with GTech last night....I will be playing against NWestern on the road vs physical teams that play in your face D.....towards the end of the game (which Nwestern didn't pull starters) GTech started to play hard physical D and NWestern couldn't get a shot off.....
GWarn- I fell into the same trap with GTech last night....I will be playing against NWestern on the road vs physical teams that play in your face D.....towards the end of the game (which Nwestern didn't pull starters) GTech started to play hard physical D and NWestern couldn't get a shot off.....
it's hard for me to really take much out of a 2nd half when there was a blowout, but I'll admit I changed the channel when GT made a run to get it to 16 before getting beat up and down the court to make it 22. I think NW will be a good fade on the road, and against teams that can penetrate with the basketball or simply score inside.
They should struggle in conference play with the quality teams like ILL, Purdue, Sparty, tOSU, Minnesota, and Wisconsin
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Quote Originally Posted by beatthelocal:
GWarn- I fell into the same trap with GTech last night....I will be playing against NWestern on the road vs physical teams that play in your face D.....towards the end of the game (which Nwestern didn't pull starters) GTech started to play hard physical D and NWestern couldn't get a shot off.....
it's hard for me to really take much out of a 2nd half when there was a blowout, but I'll admit I changed the channel when GT made a run to get it to 16 before getting beat up and down the court to make it 22. I think NW will be a good fade on the road, and against teams that can penetrate with the basketball or simply score inside.
They should struggle in conference play with the quality teams like ILL, Purdue, Sparty, tOSU, Minnesota, and Wisconsin
-This game should be a battle, but I like the road team here
because their style of play will make it very difficult for ODU to get easy
baskets. Richmond is coming off a huge victory against Purdue, and a lot of how
they won that game is why I’m making this play today. A good team in Purdue
shot 30% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc, which is really where
teams can beat the Spiders. St. Mary’s was the absolute worst matchup for them
last year in the NCAA tournament because they shoot the lights out from 3, but
I’m not afraid of ODU doing the same. ODU struggles enough at the FT line
without a hand in their face, so covering the line late with FTs will be tough
even with the short line. Getting this over a possession is fine for me because
I love having my money behind returning A10 Player of the Year Kevin Anderson. To
win this game handily, ODU will need to shoot well from deep and while they are
at home I doubt we see a Northwestern-like performance tonight. ODU is
certainly a good team, but I think the Spiders are better and they have the
perfect defense to slow a very talented squad.
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heat, oiler
add
Richmond +3.5 (-110) @ Old Dominion
-This game should be a battle, but I like the road team here
because their style of play will make it very difficult for ODU to get easy
baskets. Richmond is coming off a huge victory against Purdue, and a lot of how
they won that game is why I’m making this play today. A good team in Purdue
shot 30% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc, which is really where
teams can beat the Spiders. St. Mary’s was the absolute worst matchup for them
last year in the NCAA tournament because they shoot the lights out from 3, but
I’m not afraid of ODU doing the same. ODU struggles enough at the FT line
without a hand in their face, so covering the line late with FTs will be tough
even with the short line. Getting this over a possession is fine for me because
I love having my money behind returning A10 Player of the Year Kevin Anderson. To
win this game handily, ODU will need to shoot well from deep and while they are
at home I doubt we see a Northwestern-like performance tonight. ODU is
certainly a good team, but I think the Spiders are better and they have the
perfect defense to slow a very talented squad.
-This game should be a battle, but I like the road team here
because their style of play will make it very difficult for ODU to get easy
baskets. Richmond is coming off a huge victory against Purdue, and a lot of how
they won that game is why I’m making this play today. A good team in Purdue
shot 30% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc, which is really where
teams can beat the Spiders. St. Mary’s was the absolute worst matchup for them
last year in the NCAA tournament because they shoot the lights out from 3, but
I’m not afraid of ODU doing the same. ODU struggles enough at the FT line
without a hand in their face, so covering the line late with FTs will be tough
even with the short line. Getting this over a possession is fine for me because
I love having my money behind returning A10 Player of the Year Kevin Anderson. To
win this game handily, ODU will need to shoot well from deep and while they are
at home I doubt we see a Northwestern-like performance tonight. ODU is
certainly a good team, but I think the Spiders are better and they have the
perfect defense to slow a very talented squad.
I was thinking the same thing and the ODU line is up to 4.5 on my book. I love the Spiders and have them against Purdue. ODU is stingy though and I could see this being a slug fest decided by FT's. GL.
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Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:
heat, oiler
add
Richmond +3.5 (-110) @ Old Dominion
-This game should be a battle, but I like the road team here
because their style of play will make it very difficult for ODU to get easy
baskets. Richmond is coming off a huge victory against Purdue, and a lot of how
they won that game is why I’m making this play today. A good team in Purdue
shot 30% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc, which is really where
teams can beat the Spiders. St. Mary’s was the absolute worst matchup for them
last year in the NCAA tournament because they shoot the lights out from 3, but
I’m not afraid of ODU doing the same. ODU struggles enough at the FT line
without a hand in their face, so covering the line late with FTs will be tough
even with the short line. Getting this over a possession is fine for me because
I love having my money behind returning A10 Player of the Year Kevin Anderson. To
win this game handily, ODU will need to shoot well from deep and while they are
at home I doubt we see a Northwestern-like performance tonight. ODU is
certainly a good team, but I think the Spiders are better and they have the
perfect defense to slow a very talented squad.
I was thinking the same thing and the ODU line is up to 4.5 on my book. I love the Spiders and have them against Purdue. ODU is stingy though and I could see this being a slug fest decided by FT's. GL.
Only thing that concerns me is Richmond coming off the Purdue win, they may be a little flat.
Concerns me as well. I could see a team like Richmond getting amped up to play a team like Purdue, but not pumped up to play a team like ODU and get schooled if they come out flat.
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Quote Originally Posted by PizzaBoyRick:
Only thing that concerns me is Richmond coming off the Purdue win, they may be a little flat.
Concerns me as well. I could see a team like Richmond getting amped up to play a team like Purdue, but not pumped up to play a team like ODU and get schooled if they come out flat.
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