Night Notes: I have no feel for Villanova yet, and the same can be said for Delaware. About the only thing I dislike about UC Riverside walking into Youngstown State and stealing a win is the travel to get to Ohio. They match up eerily well with this Youngstown State. Youngstown State who is a team this year who is going to push the pace and make every game into an up and down track meet and they have acknowledged that on more than one occasion. The problem? They don’t really have the type of players to do it, and combine that with a lack of depth and this is a cover up. This team is running b/c it needs to get a quantity of shots rather than quality. Sure, the offensive numbers will look good at some point, and the guards have shown flashes of talent, but this system is quantity over quality this year. They need to attempt a high # of shots to have a chance, and Slocum knows it. One glaring weakness when playing this style of basketball also shows up on the defensive side of things. If the other team is attempting the same high # of shots, then you are going to have to stop them at some point and I’m not sure that’s going to be the case. They return nearly the same team as last year, and their strength is on the inside. The problem with this style is that the interior offense usually comes off an offensive rebound from a dumb shot from a guard b/c the guards will force a bit too much. Which leads me into this matchup tonight. If they can’t run and get the max shot attempts, they’re going to struggle. It showed last season as they struggled immensely to put the ball in the hoop against slower paced teams, and it carried over to their first game this year with Samford where they trailed until late. Cal Riverside brings in the exact style of play that Youngstown State doesn’t want to see. Slow it down, move the ball, wait for Youngstown to get out of position defensively, and take advantage. UC Riverside brings back pretty much their entire lineup, including a possible second-best backcourt in the Big West (LBSU better definitely). Having an experienced PG who can not only score, but dish the ball in Nitoto will be key as he should be able to find the gaping holes in this Youngstown State defense. Youngstown really has nobody to guard Martin on the perimeter as well, so I think he will get 20+ and they’re generally in good shape when he does that. Just a few of constants I like in this matchup, and I’ll be backing the team that is taking the better shots with the more sound offensive style of play. Youngstown State has a bit of revenge as they went to Riverside last year and lost, but again, they lost b/c they hate this slow game play. There is a reason to believe that we see a slight letdown from Youngstown as well. In the opener, they went on the road an ended a 23 game road losing streak, then they followed that up playing a D-II school at home where they set the school record for most three pointers in a single game. Once you start shooting those three’s and do something like that when you generally aren’t that talented to do so, you become complacent, and you’ll rely on those tendencies. I’ll take my chances, but again, I hate the travel. I’m getting a really experienced squad in a nice situation. Youngstown has Penn State on deck as well. Arkansas LR and Eastern Michigan should be a snooze-fest. I like St. Bonaventure, just a bit confused why they’re playing so slow when they have talent. I need to see a bit more. This is probably not a good spot for Miami OH coming off a tough physical encounter with rival Dayton a few nights ago in OT. They go into Xavier, who has revenge from last year’s loss at Miami OH. Some value in the under I believe. Last year’s game was lined at 125, and it went over thanks to a totally different style of play from Xavier in the 2H as they tried to battle back into the game. The 1H totaled 47 points. After the switch in style, the 2H totaled 92. With Miami OH coming off the OT, and Xavier with revenge, I doubt we see a half of 92 again. No feel on Houston or Arkansas this early in the season. Arizona State with slight revenge and New Mexico coming off an awful loss. No interest in Stanford. I can’t see myself venturing into the Paradise Jam all that often, the night games aren’t all that appealing. That beautiful offensive display from Maryland in yesterday’s 42 point victory was due in large part of the Alabama defense, so that gives us an ounce of value here. Turgeon wants to go up and down as much as possible, and while he doesn’t have all that great of talent, increasing the # of possessions will increase the score. I have seen nothing from Colorado or Boyle in the last year and a half that makes me believe he’ll slow it down either. This one should get into the 70’s and neither defense is worth much in the grand scheme of things. Really just basing this play on hope for a slightly less defensive effort after a back-to-backers and two offenses that will get out and go. I’m playing Alabama keeping everything in mind I wrote about Wichita in yesterday’s thread and I get a nice little postseason revenge angle to go along with it. Seton Hall & St. Joseph’s should be a pretty good ballgame defensively. Unlike VCU, St. Joe’s brings some nice offensive firepower in the backcourt, and wouldn’t be surprised to see them win this one. Georgia Tech gets Rice Jr back today right? One would think that would be enough offense to be enough to beat VCU. Tough to say, might take a bit to gel and get back into things. I like Arizona, but they showed some weaknesses last night, primarily the inside game and the ability to depend on the three-ball. I think they’re offense is enough to win this thing, but they’ll have to keep shooting it as well as they have. Will be a really nice story for the Parrom kid if they can get the win. The little tournament going on in Lafayette, LA is awful; no interest. We’ll know a lot more about Akron by the end of the weekend. Go to Valpo tonight, and get Duquesne on a neutral tomorrow. I give Akron the value here, but tough to win at Valpo. Hunch in the Davidson/Duke game is an under, but not going to take a chance with those offenses. Projected’s for the weekend coming shortly.
2* UC Riverside +7
1* Maryland/Colorado Over 140
1* Alabama ML -130
Leans: (Miami/Xavier Under 133.5)
GL
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