Posted:
#1
12-6, +2.90
Leans: (8-11)
Day Notes: I think in terms of matchups here, Ball State matches up really well with Indiana State and they’ve won each of the last two meetings. From an intangible perspective, I don’t really like the fact that they had gone west and come back home against the best team they will have faced all year. Regardless, this should be a really good basketball game, and one that is probably close throughout. I think the line is right where it should be. Here is the scary thought of the day. I project that VCU offensive display that I saw yesterday to be about 100 full spots BETTER than Drexel by season’s end. Definitely scary. At present time, Drexel is without Chris Fouch. Not necessarily a bad thing as Fouch isn’t afraid to put the ball in the air at any time he touches the ball. Without him, they really don’t have any depth, and an even bigger focus offensively goes to the inside game. And on the other side, Norfolk State brings in a big man in Kyle O’ Quinn who will at least take one of Drexel’s inside guys out of the equation. Norfolk State loses a veteran PG and a few wing players, so they have a few players stepping in with little experience, yet they will be a decently sized team. Clearly, this game will be won in the paint. Even with O’Quinn on the court, Drexel still has a slight advantage in the paint. Neither team has proven that they can hit outside shots, so this one is pretty simple also noting that Norfolk State’s Achilles heel the past few years was struggling against a team that can defend really well (for reference check last year’s 0-3 mark against Defensive titan Hampton). Norfolk State has been a team that has pushed the tempo the last few years, and they showed it in game 1 against Marquette, but I think that’s more of a byproduct of Marquette getting up and down. Coach Freeman returns to take the head spot at Norfolk State, and he’s not one to speed the tempo in his previous years. I think they’ll slow it down a bit this year and we should see that this weekend. With both teams travelling here and playing in the early game of the Paradise Jam, why not take a stab at the under. Of course, I’m basing this play on Freeman slowing the tempo. If he doesn’t, then this one is probably a dead play from the start. I’m not sure what to think of Ole Miss this year, and need to see them play. I’m playing Temple. I hate the back-to-back, but they’ll have a few extra hours of rest yesterday and they were able to play a bit deeper than Purdue, without having to play an up and down game like Purdue did. I just don’t like the matchups for Purdue offensively, and unless they’re hitting from the outside at a rapid rate, this game has the potential to get away from them early. Both teams bring in a good defense, and I project Temple’s to be a bit better. From a purely offensive perspective, Temple’s backcourt is lethal and deep. They lack in the inside department, but the style they play, the bigs just have to play their role. If I’m correct to the point that I think Purdue is sluggish, the value lies solely on Temple in this one. Hummel will have his usual game, but if Jackson and Barlow are going to beat me from the offensive end, then I can be perfectly fine with that. I made Temple a -4 in this one. I really have no point in looking at Western Michigan this early in the season. They have talent, but for some reason it’s just not all there at the moment. How Iona bounces back from the big game with Purdue will tell the story of this one. My vote for ugliest game of the day goes to LSU and Western Kentucky. Two horrendous offenses that will play up and down, take some of the dumbest shots I’ve seen with no discipline, and all out play some ugly basketball. In this case, two bads might lead to some points, and if I could trust either of these two playing on a back-to-back, the over has some value with the styles that are put in to play today. I think Northwestern should beat a Tulsa team, but matchup wise I can see them struggling with Tulsa’s length. I couldn’t really find a reason to play other side, but I put Northwestern ahead of Tulsa from an offensive perspective, and that’s one of the things I look for in back-to-backers. No interest in Texas A&M after laying an egg, and the same with St. John’s. No idea how either of these teams bounce back to play a mid-afternooner. William & Mary’s defense is pitiful and I really see no reason for improvement this year, which really begs the question, how are they going to stop McCollum? Not interested. Back later with the night games.
2* Temple +1
1* Norfolk State/Drexel Under 134.5
Lean: (LSU/WKU Over 135.5)
GL
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