FAU vs SDSU
FAU +3 (2 units)
1H Under 60 (2 units)
Under 131.5 (1 unit)
I've been wrong on SDSU all tournament so tread carefully lol. This is a match up with two really good coaches. FAU is more balanced overall. SDSU has an elite defense but my question here is how elite are they? FAU has already faced an elite defense this tournament in Tennessee and they came out on top but this SDSU team poses a different challenge in my opinion. Tennessee was super aggressive on FAU's on ball screens and their length really bothered FAU in the passing lanes especially in the first half. I think SDSU will try to do the same here but the difference is I think FAU won't be bullied as much as they were against Tennessee. FAU has faced teams with a similar pace and profile to SDSU in North Texas, Charlotte and Tennessee going a combined 4-1 ATS & 5-0 SU. FAU's big man Vlad Goldin will be big in this game. He'll need double digit rebounds and probably 10 points for FAU to cover or win.
My favorite play here is the 1H under. FAU has had a tendency to come out pretty sloppy in the first half. I think this could point toward the under in multiple ways. One being less shots or two being an increased emphasis on taking care of the ball which will lead to a slower pace with less possessions. SDSU already wants to play slow but FAU doesn't mind playing in the half court. I think FAU coach Dusty May will focus on winning the rebounding battle and cleaning up the 22 turnovers they had vs SDSU because SDSU plays so slow. Can't turn the ball over 20+ times against a team that only averages 68 possessions per game. SDSU scored 21 of their 57 points against Creighton off turnovers & second chance opportunities. A lot has been said about shooters adjusting to the sight lines in these huge stadiums so I won't go there but I will say, when the lights are bright, I'm sure it will take both teams some time to settle in.
San Diego has some serious holes on the offensive end. They tend to take some really tough mid range shots but FAU’s drop coverage will concede some decent mid range looks by nature. SDSU’s best player Bradley, has been MIA but I wouldn't bank on him not showing up in this spot. A couple things scare me about fading this SDSU team though. One was the way SDSU responded against Alabama in the second half of the Sweet 16. After blowing a half time lead and going down by 7 or 8 to Bama they came back and won when 90% of CBB teams would've got blown out after that. The other thing that scares me is the fact that teams go abnormally cold against SDSU.
The reason why I can't back SDSU in this spot is because I don't think it's all due to their defense. Creighton and Bama both had open looks, they just missed them. Bama and Creighton went a combined 5 of 44 from 3. I'm willing to bet on FAU not being another victim of the SDSU shooting curse because I've already seen them win games where they weren't hitting the 3 ball and have also seen them hit 8+ 3's in multiple games this tournament. Ultimately, FAU is the type of team you want to have your money on in March because they have multiple ways of beating you. Between Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin, Nick Boyd and Bryan Greenlee, I don't know who will lead the team in scoring but they are all capable of doing so which is a good problem to have in March.
I'm on SD ST -2 but have FAU +11 in an 8 pt teaser. 
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