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    All Forums | College Basketball

    calling all math/statistics nerds, please help: how do I maximize payout of these 2 parlays?

    CraigBuchanan
    Earthwormjem
    JimmyReebs
    astrat108
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 515
    Posts: 9
     
    CraigBuchanan
    CraigBuchanan
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2009
    Posts: 182
    Posted: Feb. 17, 2015 - 8:03 PM ET #1

    so......

    I have these 2 parlays, both with only 1 open slot, all other plays already winners.

    so, this begs the question, how do I maximize the payout?

    Feb 16 11:32 AM 
    Feb 16 04:03 PM 
    Feb 16 06:15 PM 
    Feb 17 04:02 PM 
    Feb 16 12:03 PM 

    CBB

    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    [702] VILLANOVA -13½-170 (B+3)
    OPEN PLAY
    [704] VIRGINIA -8½-170 (B+3)
    [710] CREIGHTON +5½-170 (B+3)
    [1511] TOTAL o68½-110 
    (1H WAKE FOREST vrs 1H NOTRE DAME)
    [715] MIAMI FLORIDA -170

    250 / 5547

    Feb 16 06:15 PM 
    Feb 16 06:04 PM 
    Feb 16 12:03 PM 
    Feb 16 11:32 AM 
    Feb 16 04:03 PM 

    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB

    CBB
    [1511] TOTAL o68½-115 
    (1H WAKE FOREST vrs 1H NOTRE DAME)
    [710] CREIGHTON +5½-170 (B+3)
    [721] HAMPTON +5-170 (B+3)
    [715] MIAMI FLORIDA -170
    OPEN PLAY
    [704] VIRGINIA -8½-170 (B+3)

    250 / 5427


    options, as I see them, are:

    1- don't hedge and risk it all, on 2 plays that are close to -110. this would maximize the payout (except of course for taking 2 dogs, but that would be just dumb)

    2-hedge by just taking opposite -110 plays, and guarantee myself roughly $5500 minimum

    3- take a line, like evansville -10 and buy it down 3 points to -7 in 1 parlay and buy up drake in the other parlay from +10 to +13 and hope for a middle.  this gives me the chance to hit both, but will lower payouts to roughly $4500 on each.

    4-fill one parlay with a large favorite ml, like a -10 with a ML -500, which would lower the payout on that one to around $3400, and then buy up the +10 dog in the other parlay to +13 and hope to hit that middle.

    any other ideas?
    and if you were in my shoes, what would you do?

    I have not decided, if I want to risk it all or play it safe.  To me, the $500 risked is not a big deal, and winning $10-12k does not affect my lifestyle positively or negatively, so I am not basing any decisions on that.  I simply want to do what is mathematically the ideal play.

    Thanks covers brothers  
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    so......

    I have these 2 parlays, both with only 1 open slot, all other plays already winners.

    so, this begs the question, how do I maximize the payout?

    Feb 16 11:32 AM 
    Feb 16 04:03 PM 
    Feb 16 06:15 PM 
    Feb 17 04:02 PM 
    Feb 16 12:03 PM 

    CBB

    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    [702] VILLANOVA -13½-170 (B+3)
    OPEN PLAY
    [704] VIRGINIA -8½-170 (B+3)
    [710] CREIGHTON +5½-170 (B+3)
    [1511] TOTAL o68½-110 
    (1H WAKE FOREST vrs 1H NOTRE DAME)
    [715] MIAMI FLORIDA -170

    250 / 5547

    Feb 16 06:15 PM 
    Feb 16 06:04 PM 
    Feb 16 12:03 PM 
    Feb 16 11:32 AM 
    Feb 16 04:03 PM 

    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB

    CBB
    [1511] TOTAL o68½-115 
    (1H WAKE FOREST vrs 1H NOTRE DAME)
    [710] CREIGHTON +5½-170 (B+3)
    [721] HAMPTON +5-170 (B+3)
    [715] MIAMI FLORIDA -170
    OPEN PLAY
    [704] VIRGINIA -8½-170 (B+3)

    250 / 5427


    options, as I see them, are:

    1- don't hedge and risk it all, on 2 plays that are close to -110. this would maximize the payout (except of course for taking 2 dogs, but that would be just dumb)

    2-hedge by just taking opposite -110 plays, and guarantee myself roughly $5500 minimum

    3- take a line, like evansville -10 and buy it down 3 points to -7 in 1 parlay and buy up drake in the other parlay from +10 to +13 and hope for a middle.  this gives me the chance to hit both, but will lower payouts to roughly $4500 on each.

    4-fill one parlay with a large favorite ml, like a -10 with a ML -500, which would lower the payout on that one to around $3400, and then buy up the +10 dog in the other parlay to +13 and hope to hit that middle.

    any other ideas?
    and if you were in my shoes, what would you do?

    I have not decided, if I want to risk it all or play it safe.  To me, the $500 risked is not a big deal, and winning $10-12k does not affect my lifestyle positively or negatively, so I am not basing any decisions on that.  I simply want to do what is mathematically the ideal play.

    Thanks covers brothers  
     
    Earthwormjem
    Earthwormjem
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2014
    Posts: 110
    Posted: Feb. 17, 2015 - 8:12 PM ET #2

    i'd take 2. that's just me though. i'm a gambler after all.
    Reply
    i'd take 2. that's just me though. i'm a gambler after all.
     
    JimmyReebs
    JimmyReebs
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2015
    Posts: 75
    Posted: Feb. 17, 2015 - 8:13 PM ET #3

    Personally, id take option 3. Congrats bro. Have one for me.
    Reply
    Personally, id take option 3. Congrats bro. Have one for me.
     
    CraigBuchanan
    CraigBuchanan
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2009
    Posts: 182
    Posted: Feb. 17, 2015 - 8:22 PM ET #4

    earthworm , you're a gambler and would take option 2?!?!, that's the safest option in my eyes...

    jimmy, thanks for the feedback, I am leaning towards 3 or 4, however I am sure someone out there can figure out which of the two is a better mathematical play based on the odds of that outcome occuring and the payout.
    Reply
    earthworm , you're a gambler and would take option 2?!?!, that's the safest option in my eyes...

    jimmy, thanks for the feedback, I am leaning towards 3 or 4, however I am sure someone out there can figure out which of the two is a better mathematical play based on the odds of that outcome occuring and the payout.
     
    JimmyReebs
    JimmyReebs
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2015
    Posts: 75
    Posted: Feb. 17, 2015 - 8:28 PM ET #5

    Option 3 is your best profitable mathematical outcome by 17.176%. bol buddy.
    Reply
    Option 3 is your best profitable mathematical outcome by 17.176%. bol buddy.
     
    CraigBuchanan
    CraigBuchanan
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2009
    Posts: 182
    Posted: Feb. 17, 2015 - 8:32 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyReebs:

    Option 3 is your best profitable mathematical outcome by 17.176%. bol buddy.

    but what if I don't hit the middle?  then i will get either a 3400 or 4500 payout, which would be less than option 2 and potentially less than option 4...... correct?
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyReebs:

    Option 3 is your best profitable mathematical outcome by 17.176%. bol buddy.

    but what if I don't hit the middle?  then i will get either a 3400 or 4500 payout, which would be less than option 2 and potentially less than option 4...... correct?
     
    CraigBuchanan
    CraigBuchanan
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2009
    Posts: 182
    Posted: Feb. 17, 2015 - 8:38 PM ET #7

    F it.....

    i filled them with Michigan State ML -230
    and
    Michigan +8 (bought the 3 points)

    payouts are below:

    Feb 16 06:15 PM 
    Feb 16 12:03 PM 
    Feb 16 04:02 PM 
    Feb 17 04:02 PM 
    Feb 17 06:00 PM 

    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    [704] VIRGINIA -8½-170 (B+3)
    [710] CREIGHTON +5½-170 (B+3)
    [715] MIAMI FLORIDA -170
    [702] VILLANOVA -13½-170 (B+3)
    [1511] TOTAL o68½-110 
    (1H WAKE FOREST vrs 1H NOTRE DAME)
    [525] MICHIGAN STATE -230

    250 / 4107

    Feb 16 06:15 PM 
    Feb 16 12:03 PM 
    Feb 16 06:04 PM 
    Feb 17 04:02 PM 
    Feb 17 06:00 PM 

    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    [704] VIRGINIA -8½-170 (B+3)
    [710] CREIGHTON +5½-170 (B+3)
    [715] MIAMI FLORIDA -170
    [721] HAMPTON +5-170 (B+3)
    [1511] TOTAL o68½-115 
    (1H WAKE FOREST vrs 1H NOTRE DAME)
    [526] MICHIGAN +8-170 (B+3)

    250 / 4473

    thanks for the advice 

    let's pray for a middle 
    Reply
    F it.....

    i filled them with Michigan State ML -230
    and
    Michigan +8 (bought the 3 points)

    payouts are below:

    Feb 16 06:15 PM 
    Feb 16 12:03 PM 
    Feb 16 04:02 PM 
    Feb 17 04:02 PM 
    Feb 17 06:00 PM 

    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    [704] VIRGINIA -8½-170 (B+3)
    [710] CREIGHTON +5½-170 (B+3)
    [715] MIAMI FLORIDA -170
    [702] VILLANOVA -13½-170 (B+3)
    [1511] TOTAL o68½-110 
    (1H WAKE FOREST vrs 1H NOTRE DAME)
    [525] MICHIGAN STATE -230

    250 / 4107

    Feb 16 06:15 PM 
    Feb 16 12:03 PM 
    Feb 16 06:04 PM 
    Feb 17 04:02 PM 
    Feb 17 06:00 PM 

    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    CBB
    [704] VIRGINIA -8½-170 (B+3)
    [710] CREIGHTON +5½-170 (B+3)
    [715] MIAMI FLORIDA -170
    [721] HAMPTON +5-170 (B+3)
    [1511] TOTAL o68½-115 
    (1H WAKE FOREST vrs 1H NOTRE DAME)
    [526] MICHIGAN +8-170 (B+3)

    250 / 4473

    thanks for the advice 

    let's pray for a middle 
     
    astrat108
    astrat108
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2014
    Posts: 108
    Posted: Feb. 17, 2015 - 8:47 PM ET #8

    Options 1 & 2 have an equal EV long term with 1 having more risk/reward. 

    Like he said before, option 3 is probably the best mathematically because you still guarantee a winning parlay without reducing the payout too much as in Option 4 while having a decent sized window to middle. 

    Regardless of what you choose, good luck!!
    Reply
    Options 1 & 2 have an equal EV long term with 1 having more risk/reward. 

    Like he said before, option 3 is probably the best mathematically because you still guarantee a winning parlay without reducing the payout too much as in Option 4 while having a decent sized window to middle. 

    Regardless of what you choose, good luck!!
     
     
    CraigBuchanan
    CraigBuchanan
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2009
    Posts: 182
    Posted: Feb. 17, 2015 - 8:51 PM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by astrat108:

    Options 1 & 2 have an equal EV long term with 1 having more risk/reward. 

    Like he said before, option 3 is probably the best mathematically because you still guarantee a winning parlay without reducing the payout too much as in Option 4 while having a decent sized window to middle. 

    Regardless of what you choose, good luck!!

    thank you 
    You guys both came up with pretty much what I did....which is good
    I went ahead and filled it as it shows above...probably posted it as you were typing your reply...sort of a hybrid of 3 and 4, as I took a ML but not a huge juiced one and instead of a '6-pt-middle', I have a '7-pt-middle'
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by astrat108:

    Options 1 & 2 have an equal EV long term with 1 having more risk/reward. 

    Like he said before, option 3 is probably the best mathematically because you still guarantee a winning parlay without reducing the payout too much as in Option 4 while having a decent sized window to middle. 

    Regardless of what you choose, good luck!!

    thank you 
    You guys both came up with pretty much what I did....which is good
    I went ahead and filled it as it shows above...probably posted it as you were typing your reply...sort of a hybrid of 3 and 4, as I took a ML but not a huge juiced one and instead of a '6-pt-middle', I have a '7-pt-middle'
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