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**2009 Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament Thread**

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Posted: #26
GW...my guess it was due to their draw. They have Richmond/Bonnies in rd 2...probably the easiest out of the top 4 seeds.
 
Both Xavier and Temple came down huge since I put up the lines. I think most of the bettors saw the same I did in their value....
 
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Posted: #27
Lets do some line projections so I can get a chance to figure out who I may or may not like come Wednesday...
 
Wednesday, March 11
#8 La Salle vs. #9 Saint Louis +2.5 129.5
#5 Saint Joseph's vs. #12 Charlotte +5 134
#7 Duquesne vs. #10 Massachusetts +4.5 155
#6 Richmond vs. #11 St. Bonaventure +7 139
 
I expect teams to realize that this is a LONG tournament, 4 games in 4 days for ANY of these teams here if they want to win it. Teams like Mass may not push the ball as much, and Im waiting to get conformation on some of those thoughts. I expect St. Joes to really keep the game slow paced as much as possible against Charlotte as they have the thinnest bench.
 
If these lines hold, my leans:
ST. Joes UNDER 134
St. Bona +7
Mass +4.5
La Salle -2.5
La Salle UNDER 129
 
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Posted: #28
I like those spreads. so much so that i wouldnt have any leans.
 
La Salle and St. Louis is a stark contrast in styles. I think SLU wins the game though.
 
I hope the Joe loses but I feel like Charlotte just isnt consistent enough to win.
 
Duquesne and UMass are two of the odder teams. Dukes could go real far with their oddball style or get crushed.
 
Richmond is an enigma too. Good team but they can be inconsistent too. The Bonnies won there but I dont think they'd win again.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Blakejeff:

I like those spreads. so much so that i wouldnt have any leans.
 
La Salle and St. Louis is a stark contrast in styles. I think SLU wins the game though.
 
I hope the Joe loses but I feel like Charlotte just isnt consistent enough to win.
 
Thanks bud  I like La Salle for a couple of reasons...
#1, they are playing decent
#2 STL away from home, just not buying it...
 
 
Duquesne and UMass are two of the odder teams. Dukes could go real far with their oddball style or get crushed.
 
Richmond is an enigma too. Good team but they can be inconsistent too. The Bonnies won there but I dont think they'd win again.
 
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Posted: #30
Based on match ups I have the finals being...

Temple vs Dayton


 
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Posted: #31
So Temple +500 looks fairly decent to me although I'm a Dayton fan

Temple winning this thing would be a nice thing for your bet especially if they play Dayton in the championship.  Your almost surely going to get 3 teams from the A-10 in then.  In this scenario, but we all know everything can't go our way
 
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Posted: #32
Sorry for multiple posts

Another side note Dayton is kind of built to win this tournament.  Dayton will be the freshest of all the teams in the tournament with out a doubt.  With all the damn playing time handed out by Gregory. 

Pray for a Dayton win so maybe someone will try to hire Gregory away from us
 
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Posted: #33
If Saint Joe's wants to have any chance at winning some of these games they need to push the pace.  They are so bad in the half court it is sickening.  As soon as they slowed the pace down in the 2nd half on Saturday, they could not score and Fordham made a run to cut the lead to only 11.  I'm not sure if everyone realizes how close SJU was to blowing that cover late.  It took a 3 from Bently (first 3 I remember him hitting all year) and a spinning shot from Rodgers (a guy who never plays or scores) to get that cover. 
 
It should also be noted that the Boardwalk Hall was not designed for basketball games and has a real weird setup.  There will be an empty stage (it will porbably be covered by a curtain) behind one basket.  This could lead to lower scoring and a lot of unders.  I should probably go back a research how totals have done in the past at this venue. 
 
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Posted: #34
Whode...Dayton is still banged up a bit no??? I guess maybe healthy now sans Lowery...Richmond might give them a good game..if they play one another...and Richmond is getting 5+ I might bite...
 
URI is deep which I like...
 
In terms of 3 teams..Temple and URI stll have an outside shot...they do need to make the finals though....if temple beats Stjoe, Xavier and loses to say Dayton, they get in IMO...but if they lose to URI..i dont see us getting 4 teams..so probably not...
 
Joe...i was there last year..its not built for a bball setting I agree...not sure I know what you mean about UNDERS however...the curtain for the stage is way back...there are bleachers on both ends of the court behind the backboards....
As well, SJU does need to pick it up and not play half court...I just dont see martelli doing it knowing he has such a thin bench and needs 4 games in 4 days....maybe in spurts, but I can see him settling for Nivins in the half court...
 
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Posted: #35
Dayton's only injury to my knowledge at this point is Lowery, which is huge since he has been gone Turnovers up for sure.  London Warren is garbage.  Steven Thomas needs to step up big time in tourney for UD to win. 
 
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Posted: #36
Crus,
 
I was thining the venue might lead to lower scoring.  Last season there was 4 games that went over the total and 7 that went under.  One of the Overs was an OT game but with 11 games you can expect 1 to go to OT (I read somewhere that 1 in 10 games goes to OT).
 
I actually like Temple to win the tourney.  I think they got a good draw.  They matchup well with SJU or the 49ers and get to play Xavier game 2 rather than 3. 
 
 
 
  
 
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Posted: #37
Whodey...I agree..Thomas has to step up...warren is a hounding type guard who should really only play 10-15 mins a game...but unfortunately they dont have the PG prowess to do so.
 
Joe...I think in general you will see lower scoring as teams have so much on the line. Want to take higher %age shots etc. As well, there are many defensive minded teams in the A-10...X, Dayton, Temple, STJ, STL...4 of which are top tier teams...and control the pace...
 
you going down to AC??
 
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Posted: #38
I think Temple has the best road and really, they have to "if" games, Joes, just because its a rivalry and anything can happen, but "if" they win, thye they get anX-Men team that has really fallen off and lets face it, the crowd is all for the philly teams. So, take them too win it all, then hopefully be able to hedge in the finals.
 
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Posted: #39
At +500 I thhought it was a lot of value...at +325...not so much. I wont be playing anyone else for the tournament...
 
Temple definitely has a a good shot.
 
Bracks, you coming down to AC at all???
 
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Posted: #40
Crus,

now that you mention that St. Joe's needs to play 4 in 4 days, i'm thinking those games with go under as they want to win but don't want to exert themselves so i'm thinking their 1/2court struggles will be even more obvious in that one which could give Charlotte a good chance at winning if the Hawks play too conservatively.

...i think Martelli is a smart guy because you don't get Delonte West and Jameer Nelson on the same team without a brain, but i also think Bobby Lutz knows what he's doing and the Charlotte team is pretty experienced after only losing Goldwire to graduation last year and having 8 upperclassmen

thoughts?
 
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Posted: #41
I saw that somebody said
"Dayton struggles mightly in nuetral site games."

They went 2-0 this year beating Auburn and Marquette. Thats two pretty good teams


I will be on the UMass ML Wednesday. I have the winner of the URI/Dayton game taking the tournament
 
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Posted: #42
I'm not unfortunately Crus. A budy from out of town is coming in for the BE and I am taking him to Wed all day. Then I am bringing him down to philly for a buddy's Bday. I was planning on coming for Friday. May still try to do it. Enjoy buddy, alwasy a good time there for those games.
 
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Posted: #43
Point guard prowess
 
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Posted: #44
Unfortunately im not going to AC. My dad will be there but I'm stuck in Richmond.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by JCWhy83:

I saw that somebody said
"Dayton struggles mightly in nuetral site games."

They went 2-0 this year beating Auburn and Marquette. Thats two pretty good teams


I will be on the UMass ML Wednesday. I have the winner of the URI/Dayton game taking the tournament


They handled Marquette early this season and beat Auburn going 0-24 from the three point line.  They did shoot good from the line in that game though, not really good but decent.
 
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Posted: #46
Crus, where are you getting these lines from?  The Greek?

Also, the Bonnies beat Richmond once this year and are relatively hot right now.  Let's not forget they were up double digits at RI at the half not even a month ago. So the team is capable of playing with the big boys.  They haven't been to this tournament in awhile and I'd imagine they'll be fired up for the Spiders whereas Richmond might be looking past them.  I guess my point is I'll be looking at taking Bona +6 or better.

As far as the tournament overall I think ST. Joe's has the best value.  The fact that TU is +350 and STJ is +800 is hard to fathom.  I don't think there is much difference between these two teams.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

Crus,

now that you mention that St. Joe's needs to play 4 in 4 days, i'm thinking those games with go under as they want to win but don't want to exert themselves so i'm thinking their 1/2court struggles will be even more obvious in that one which could give Charlotte a good chance at winning if the Hawks play too conservatively.

...i think Martelli is a smart guy because you don't get Delonte West and Jameer Nelson on the same team without a brain, but i also think Bobby Lutz knows what he's doing and the Charlotte team is pretty experienced after only losing Goldwire to graduation last year and having 8 upperclassmen

thoughts?

Charlotte I had as a sleeper team this year in the A-10. They dissapointed me big time. However they have played better as of late, but their away from home abilities really scare me from backing them much this coming week. Harris is coming into his own, and since the injury to Dewhurst, Mack and Coley have stepped it up. I like the UNDER in that game if it is over 130..which I hope it is...

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by goatmc:

Crus, where are you getting these lines from?  The Greek?

Also, the Bonnies beat Richmond once this year and are relatively hot right now.  Let's not forget they were up double digits at RI at the half not even a month ago. So the team is capable of playing with the big boys.  They haven't been to this tournament in awhile and I'd imagine they'll be fired up for the Spiders whereas Richmond might be looking past them.  I guess my point is I'll be looking at taking Bona +6 or better.

As far as the tournament overall I think ST. Joe's has the best value.  The fact that TU is +350 and STJ is +800 is hard to fathom.  I don't think there is much difference between these two teams.

No lines out yet to my knowledge. These are my PROJECTIONS. Im usually pretty decent with them...so we will see...STJ is decent value at +800 I do agree...I just see them fading down the stretch...way to thin...but they could win 2 in a row...never know...I dont like their draw though...but this is a tough conference.

 
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Posted: #49
i think temple got a good chance of winning this one actually
 
 
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Posted: #50
Big, they definitely do...all the top 4 have a VERY LEGIT shot...gotta love the A-10 this year...
 
So is ANYONE going to this damn tournament?? Can you beat its location??? Atlantic CITY!!! Ok maybe the Vegas tourney can, but this is a close 2nd based on location!...
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