🤢🥴_ Fubah's 2023 Hoops Thread _😲🥵

Their defense is starting to look like a vintage Izzo defense - something they have not shown all year.  Malik Hall and Jaden Akins have been in and out of the lineup most of the middle of the season due to injuries.  They are playing their most consistent all season right now as they seem to be back to 100%.  Hall will be guarding Keyontae Johnson most of the night and that will be one of the keys to the entire game.  Markquis Nowell will draw Akins and Tyson Walker.  MSU does a great job focusing on key starters and doing what they can to shut them down.  (If you see how they shut down Tyler Kolek for Marquette last week - it was a master class in taking away Kolek's tendencies.)

Granted, I'm a local here in Michigan, but if you see MSU keeping Nowell and Johnson under their usual numbers/percentages, and KSU does nothing to counter, expect the Spartans to pull away late like they did against USC and Marquette.  This MSU team is not going to run you off the floor, but they are showing lock down defense - which is helping their horrid 3 point shooting from last weekend.  If Sparty is hitting 3s, they're a solid bet to win this one even if 1 of the 2 Wildcats goes off for these usual metrics.

Note:  ftr.....I have NOT yet posted any actual bets/picks on NCAA for today.

A "lean   ' or a "nod"  or an "edge"  is NOT a posted pick/bet.

In most cases I prefer to wait to see the pregame lineups before making a decision for sure, and in many cases the moneyline odds on the HOME FAV is too high pregame so I wait for an in-game opporrtunity at a lower price....

@jackedward32

Yeah, GOOD STUFF! 

I do lean SPARTY but still on the fence.....However, you raise good points.

So what do you figure: we should hold off on any bets until we monitor how they are hitting from the perimeter?

I don't see them shooting only 2 for 16 from outside again.  They are something like the tenth best team in the nation from there.  Expecting a bounce back off that. But they might not get as many freethrows either.

 MENS *BEST BETS:   68 - 24    +123.45 units*

*...if bettors had placed a mean avg of 5-units-to-win on all my *Best Bets (like several others on this forum do with their picks!) and at an avg of $1k per unit, then those bettors would be up over $123,000 after just 7 weeks of betting these.....I am not recommending anyone actually do that, but hypothetically those would be the results....Or, if you choose to grade my results as if betting just to win one-unit each pick,  then a net  +24.69 units

*WOMENS YTD: 45 - 23
---------------------------

                     NIT PICKING WOMEN

7pm ET   F U +6.5/+230 @CLEMSON-6.5/-320

My ratings: #74 @#59
F U was just 5 - 12 in conf, albeit the TOUGHEST conf
F U was only 2 - 6 OTR in conf

Clemson was 8 -12 in ACC conf, almost as tough as the SEC!
Clemson was 5 - 4 on homecourt in the very tough ACC

F U was 4 - 4 against teams similar to Clemson (3 - 2 OTR)
Clemson was 5 - 3 against teams similar to F U (4 - 1 on homecourt!)

Clemson narrowly escaped with a 1 pt win last game vs AUBURN - a team I rate about the same as F U

*Gator Gut Punch: they recently lost their BEST forward, 6'6" KYLE, on March 1! They lost that game by 15 to Kentucky, a similar opp as Clemson....then struggled to a narrow 3 pt win over a weakling....then surprised everyone with an impressive 17 pt win over Clemson's conf foe, Wake Forest, OTR! But might that be a one-off with their big center OUT now?
Lean to the homies in this one......BUT that ML is too high.....so will follow my 25 year betting strategy and wait in-game for that ML price to come down while at the same time assessing the boxscore metrics for a reliable bet.

Yeah I can agree with that.  All else being equal, when they shoot waaaaaaaaaay better from the arc than they did against a very good Marquette squad, then their overall performance should also be even better. Theoretically.

*WOMENS YTD: 45 - 23
--------------------------------

                                   NIT PICKING WOMEN

7:30 ET Nebraska+4.5/+160 @KANSAS-4.5/-220

My ratings: #40 @#35
Since this is a home game for the Lady Jayhawks, the best metric is:
Since after Christmas, K U is 8 - 3 at home in the very tough BIG12 + playoffs.
Of those 11 games, K U is 5 - 1 at home vs opps similar to Nebraska.
Jayhawks over the past month have played 3 quality teams at home - winning them all.

While Nebraska, since after christmas, in a BIGTEN conf just slightly weaker than BIG12, is 3 - 5 OTR. Of those games, they are 2 - 2 away from home vs good opps like K U

Nod goes to the homecourt Jayhawks, but I dunno if they are worthy of the lines in this situation.

Think I'll follow my usual strategy and monitor the metrics while looking for a cheaper price in-game.

WOMENS LIVE BET: Tiger are down early to F U ... 6 - 14

CLEMSON WOMEN -110

KState playing lights out D so far and no answer for Nowell. Taking away his shooting but making him a passer (and he’s very good at that). If MSU can shake the D and settle in, they’ll be in better shape. Have not played well so far and still only down by 2. First 5 minutes of 2nd half will be telling. 

Well SPARTY has their groove back from the perimeter.  5 of 9 is much more like it.... and 9 for 9 from the stripe!

Tale of two halves?

Gotta be honest. This game looks like MSU during BIG conference season when they just seemed like they aren’t going to find a way. The KS scheme has them on their heels. Sparty looked completely in control both games last weekend. Look like they are barely holding on right now. Let’s see what adjustments are made. 

Here's some stats in favor of the Spartans. K State shot 60%+ in the first half and are only up by 5. That is unsustainable. State is shooting 3s well again. They are out rebounding KSU also. Big things in their favor for the second half.  Because of this, I don’t know if +165 will be there later. I’m taking the Spartans. 

And they proceed to throw the ball away immediately. 

MENS LIVE ACTION:

SPARTY -120        tied at 67

I mean, K State shooting 58%!!!

And KSU just fouled out a starter with another on the bubble.

Both in bonus but Sparty is better

IF PARTY goes into the final minute down 5.....they lose for sureDown 4 is a highly probable loss

Down 3 is still likely

Hoping you have a GREAT NIGHT!!

They seem to be doing OK    

Great f n game 

LOSS

My hat tip to  F U  as they hit 13 from the arc...Clemson got 3 on home court.....game.

LOSS in OT