🤢🥴_ Fubah's 2023 Hoops Thread _😲🥵

Yeah.   4 seed Wildcats are the better team.....and would win outright 6 games out of 10 vs 9 seed Miami....but today is NOT there day.  After being outscored by 6 in the first Q, they have since gone just 14 - 28 by early 3Q.......This one is a loser.

WOMENS TOURNAMENT:

6seed COLORADO vs 2seed IOWA

Iowa is favored by 6 on a neutral court.....But very likely without their #5 scorer.
Although I feel the erratic Buffs got LUCKY vs powerful DUKE the other day in overtime, I can't take IOWA here without knowing how they play with a replacement for their #5 - who is a 6'2" forward and good rebounder.
Possible in-game bet but not likely until I give it a full half to see how they play and review the boxscore metrics (rebounding, assists, turnovers, FOULS! and shooting)

PLUS, personally I hate taking a team when so much of their success is riding on the performance of just ONE key player. (the terrific Kaitlyn Clark)
Every player has an off day now and then. Never know when that can happen...or an injury.

If any other starter has an off day, they only lose a little in performance.

If CLARK has an off day, they lose *HUGE* in performance and lose the game ta boot.

Same reasoning applies to any team in any sport....

Wildcat women - a very good team! - normally average 33% from the perimeter but today so far 1 of 10.........this will be a SU win for the Canes.

@fubah2

 The Villanova +16.5 "live play"  looks good and now rooting for your +3.5 live. They are finishing the game and playing tough.

Wish I had a few on the ML at +1300 when I played the +16.5

Upping the LSU WOMEN to *Best Bet status

Uh-oh    LSU has fallen behind in the early 2Q

@fubah2

 Jumping on LSU +2 LIVE. 

Lets get this!

AZTECS maybe on verge of HUGE upset

ESPN has Bama ranked at 1 and SDSU at 19
I have them #1 and SDSU #22

Going by my rankings here because of this:

SDSU is 18 -3 in a decent but not great Mountain West conf
Bama was 18 - 2 and in a much tougher SEC conf!

Since after Christmas, SDSU hasn't played a single team even remotely close to the calibre of Bama. Not even a Howitzer shot distance close! They are UNTESTED.
But what we do know is this: look at some of their "suspect" games in the second half of the season, beginning January 31...
LOSS at "decent but not great" Nevada
Narrow 2 pt win at "GOOD but not great" Utah St.
Narrow 2 pt win at mediocre Fresno
Narrow 2 pt win at "decent but not great" New Mexico
LOSS at "decent but not great" Boise
Narrow 3 pt win, on neutral court, vs mediocre Colorado State
Close 5 pt win, on neutral court, vs "GOOD but not great" Utah St
Close 6 pt win, on neutral court, vs "decent but not great" Col. of Charleston
*one-off(?) 23 pt blowout win vs "decent but not great" Furman

They haven't played ANYONE even close to the level of Bama, and the ones they did play they - all of them WEAKER than SDSU - seemed to just barely scratch out at win or actually lose outright!
And they hope to beat the #1 team in the country with THAT resume??!

It's true that Bama has played 4 consecutive "suspect" games at the end of February into March, but have played exceptionally well since their close road loss to a very tough A&M Aggies squad....blowing out 3 teams and an 11 pt win over another in recent games vs quality opps roughly similar to SDSU.

Sure, occasional BIG UPSETS do happen. But I have to play the odds here.

All else being equal this *should* be another winner for Bama like their last game vs Maryland. I realize that 22 pt win was a home game. But the opp was no weaker than SDSU as I see it. Even on a neutral court in Louisville, Bama fans will make the drive and fill up 3/4 of the venue at least.

That being said I do expect AZTECS to play very close thru the 1H and hang tough with Bama all game.  They likely feel they have nothing to lose and are motivated by the chance to shock the world. This could come down to the final 2 minutes.
What could bring Bama down from an expected win is an UNexpected big disparity in shooting, FOUL TROUBLES!, or an injury to a key starter.
CRIMSON TIDE -335

Passing on the Syracuse/COLUMBIA womens game as it's just too close to call either way

@fubah2

 LSU girls missing EVERY 3 pointer and Utah hit 7 of them. Jeeeeze!

Yeah just noticed that in the boxscore.

They average 35% ytd but just 1 for 10 so far today in a 1 pt game.......THAT is what is keeping it closer than it should be

And sure enough.....only after a quarter of the game, refs have assesed Bama's top player with 2 fouls.  He will be forced to sit and that helps SDSU keep it close or even take a solid lead

Hurricanes have serious shot at an upset today!

Nobody wins in a hurricane

Oh man I feel so bad for the young lady on the UTES #22......she misses 2 FTs and was a 78% ytd right with a 1 pt deficit and only 5 ticks left....

And as expected, the foul trouble to Bama allowed SDSU to take a solid lead in the 1H.   I expected them to play very close 1H......Still iffy.....I would NOT take a BAMA bet right now..... both their top scorers will start the 2H with 2 fouls each......and it might get worse yet.....never know....PLUS Bama is UNexpectedly stone cold from the arc with just 1 for 11.....BIG CONCERN here for Bama backers

And...Bama is being outshot (so far) and outrebounded (so far) with more turnovers and fewer steals

In theory it could all turn around.  But the boxscore metrics tell a story and it doesn't look promising....Maybe if Trammel would quickly pick up a couple fouls....but...

Bama on a nice 13 - 4 run to start 2H at the 4:15 timeout........but soon SDSU will counter

And sure enough......I remarked earlier how FOULS could be the undoing of BAMA... and bam,  starter Clowney assessed 2 quick ones and he is forced to sit with 4 and about 13 minutes left.....

And just like I said.....down 9 pts to Bama but they hit a 3 and then a quick steal for another 2

as for fouls situation: lucky SDSU does have 3 fouls on a pair -- but they are both non-contributors with 0 pts each!

Bama is right now sitting key rebounder Clowney -- likely until about 6 minutes left......which is another 5

And now Bamas TOP rebounder goes to the locker room with an eye injury.......Bama has 2 starters out and SDSU on a run....

And there it is........they were down 9.....2 Bama starters forced out........SDSU ties it

12 - 0 run for SDSU like I predicted after the Bama run....although aided by BAMA losing 2 starters..... and in that time SDSU given 1 foul, Bama got 5

4 fouls CLowney reinserted.....but when he was out SDSU had their 12 - 0 run