🤢🥴_ Fubah's 2023 Hoops Thread _😲🥵

Well.....this kinda sucks .... I had retyped all this (below) only to find that the TOTAL had jumped up ....

Bearcats @WOLVERINES

Interesting look at a possible OVER total bet (o/u146.5)

      When playing at HOME (like tonight) facing the other competitive teams in the mediocre WAC, Utah Valley scored 80, 80, 90, and 113 all in regulation....and we should also add they scored 88 against rival S.UTAH played in Vegas. If we were to hypothesize that 113 down to a more likely number like say, 90 pts, then we get a solid mean of about 85 ppg.....with 80 being the lowest number of the 5.
They played 3 conf games vs tough rival S.UTAH and the game totals were: 146 (January), then 173 at home in February, then 177 in Vegas March 10. Their March 03 HOME game against another WAC winning team (SFA) finished 182 total in regulation! Yes, yes, Cincinnati is better than all the teams the Wolverines faced. But I think, what those numbers seem to show is they get into a run & gun wide open scoring affair when facing better opps than usual....yes/no?
    So then I looked at the games Cincinnati played IN CONF against more or less similar teams to Utah Valley. I will not count the scores against TOP POWER teams Houston and Memphis nor the weaklings like TULSA....So eliminating those, and just against similar teams to UV, Bearcats ON THE ROAD (plus neutral playoffs) scored these: 61 and 70 in early January; 83 in reg Feb 07; 73 Feb 19; 84 (neutral v. Temple); 79 @Hofstra. That's a mean avg of 79 ppg recently ...or 75 ppg if we include those 2 games from the first week after the Christmas break. In fact, in recent play, which is MOST IMPORTANT, the Bearcats have not scored fewer than 71 pts in ANY game since February 01 (excluding game against extremely tough Houston)
Another way to look at this for Cincinnati is this: in their more recent games (since Feb 01) and against decent/competitive squads more or less like UV, their game totals were: 137; 166 in reg; 144; 150 in reg; 138; 153 v. VTech; 144 @Hofstra........ a mean avg of 147.4 tpg (not counting OT scoring - which I prefer to ignore)

Both teams are expected to have their full lineups tonight.
Of course anything can happen in basketball. One or both teams could unexpectedly play awful.

FCK!  After all that, the total jumps UP to o/u 148.5 .....sigh..... I dunno now.... maybe still an over but less optimism for me...May just hope for slow play in the early mins so the total drops then possibly grab an over....not sure

COMING NEXT: more of the same BS ....LOL

*BEST BETS record YTD:  68 - 24
       (a net of +24.69 units if choosing to grade my bets at ONLY one unit each)

Thinking the UNDER 140.5 looks tempting after 12mins

@fubah2

 Don't forget possible OT with that line.   

I didn't put much on it.....just a bit for $ some fun......NOT a posted pick.....haven't played totals all season....but both teams just stone cold.  Now I do expect this to turn around but unless it goes to OT I think the early damage has been done.  We shall see......

Quote Originally Posted by jpot34:

@fubah2  Don't forget possible OT with that line.

Well I got lucky on the score thru the 1H.....only 51 pts and I was projecting a winning under even if it hit around 60 in the 1H.

But....never know....they could explode in 2H and then go OT 

@fubah2

Yeah a bit of luck there....but it was fun.   Hope your bets won for you.

Meanwhile a 3rd consecutive NIT HOME team goes down....

Game well underway, so this is NOT a posted pick....but as noted above I favored the homies here and I did put a little cash on them ....and also the OVER 148.5 - even though I am bummed I missed out on the line of  ov 146.5 earlier.....Parlayed these two as well (something I rarely do)....But a little ca$h just for some fun.    Maybe buy an XL, 4-topping Papa Johns  pizza and a 6-pack if I win  LOL

@fubah2

i know u didnt post a bet on utahvalley  but i tailed your  lean anyway 

I really hope you win YOUR bet!

But it's shaping up to be a nailbiter....

good call fubs  thx  

enjoyed your long writeups  i expect to see  4 mor  tomorrow  

Yeah, okay....I'll see if I can throw together something. 

Although note that I previously stated I am leaning to the  Yukon SledDogs  on Thursday  over Arkansas.   But haven't decided to pull the trigger yet.

Giving serious thoughts to playing SPARTY to get a SU winner.

keep up the great work

@fubah2

Bol fubah I like mich st but that kid nowell from k state is a stud he should be in the NBA already I no he’s just one guy but I was impressed with his passing also leaning UConn I’m being biased Go Bruins !! And ya I like the Vols rest of games bama ML Houston ML Creighton ML in a parlay and Texas straight good luck to all the craziness starts today  

BoL with your bets today!

BoL with your bets today!

UCLA looks good tonight as they will have BONA back (played vs NWU) and although a gametime decision I expect guard SINGLETON to play with a taped ankle.  Of course they are still missing CLARK but they should be ok.

Bulldogs are expected to have everyone available too

*WOMENS YTD:  45 - 23
--------------------------------

         NIT PICKING WOMEN

6pm ET Memphis+4.5/+160 @BOWLING GREEN -4.5/-220

My ratings: #72 @#70

Even contest here.
All players on both teams should suit up tonight with no major injuries affecting their records to date.
Falcons have 5 losses in a mediocre conf.
Tigers have 5 losses in a much tougher conf!
Falcons solid 8 - 2 at home in conf.
Tigers solid 6 - 2 OTR and in a tougher conf!
Falcons recent play is OK but mixed signals. Their schedule is suggestive that they follow good performances against tough opps with a stinker. They just clobbered WGB by 18 OTR, and now face an even tougher opp.
Tigers recent play seems a bit stronger.
Nod here to Memphis getting +4.5 pts, in a game I think they have at least a 50% chance to win SU.... although I'll wait to see pregame lineups to be sure there are no surprises.

No guarantees of course.......they could LOSE by 20!

Women's games are like that 

*WOMENS YTD: 45 - 23
------------------------------------

                 NIT PICKING WOMEN

7pm ET Rhode Island+2.5/+120 @HARVIE-2.5/-160

My ratings: #70 @#80

All players on both teams should suit up tonight with no major injuries affecting their records to date.

Harvie was 10 - 6 in a mediocre conf.
RI was 16 - 3 in a tougher conf!
Harvie was just 2 - 4 in conf against opps similar to RI. (1 - 1 on homecourt)
RI were 4 - 3 in conf against teams about the same strength as Harvie. (2 - 1 OTR)
Both teams played well in their recent NIT win.
Should be very close, but I lean to the visitors, who lost only 3 games in a tougher conference.