🤢🥴_ Fubah's 2023 Hoops Thread _😲🥵

Still no *Best Bets on the horizon yet, but if I do it will likely be during LIVE ACTION betting.

My method is to look for my pregame choice to be down a bit so I can get a better ML price and then *ONLY* if the boxscore metrics are appealing enough to suggest a comeback is probable.

*Best Bets so far:   64 - 23     (73.5%)

Wow!!  

marquette making it look easy  

I figured Marquette had the edge and I wanted them, but I sure didn't forsee hanging a huge beatdown on the Mouseketeers.

My Golden Eagles hopefuls were never behind in the score so I could not get the cheapie odds I hoped for (because I was expecting a close game) and eventually let it go as a "pass"   Oh well.  Nothing lost

Keeping an eye on Toledo. Should get a good line once 2H starts but need to see if they start shooting the ball a little better. Currently sub 40% and only down by one. If their shooting improves and Flashes keep their shooting avg (43%), Toledo should pull it out down the stretch. 

FWIW:

EvanMiya (with any injuries)

UAB - 37

FAU - 33

KenPom

UAB - 54

FAU - 29

Slight edge to FAU statistically. 

KenPom:

Dook - 24

Virginia - 31

EvanMiya

Dook -13

Virginia - 15

Another too close to call. 

I’ll look at the others and if anything stands out, I’ll let you know - if you care. 

Taking Toledo. Kent St INCREASED their FG% to 51% but has lots of guys with fouls. Toledo has upped their shooting but no foul issues. I am hoping Kent will eventually regress to their mean and fouls will have an impact on their play. Got Toledo on the ML +190

Not looking good. At least I have bourbon. 

ill drink to that on a saturday night   

MENS upset winners from Saturday who advance to Sunday:
(spread dogs with at least 2 fewer wins in conference)

         Penn St +3.5 over Indiana

*Note: AZ did not close as an underdog

FWIW, I have VCU as having the edge in todays, game as the better team - teetering between slightly better and marginally better.  This does take into account that starting guard Kobe Ellis for Dayton has missed their last two games and remains OUT - though they did win both without him, including a decent 10 pt win over 13 - 7 Fordham yesterday, while VCU was defeating 13 - 7 St.Louis by 12

i was leaning VCU

I'm passing (pregame) as the spread and ML odds appear deadly accurate on this one, and will watch for a possible opportunity in game  - potential being the better team is down but all the boxscore metrics suggest they have a great shot for a comeback

-----------------------

  One of my key measures for in game bets  (besides the game score, obviously) is HOW MANY TIMES did each team score.

I mean sometimes it might look like this:

TEAM A has scored 24 times but only 3 for ten from the arc (30% isn't horrible)

compared to the opp who is leading the game.....but....

TEAM B has only scored say, 16 times, but 6 for 7 on 3s and luckily got +7 more FTs to stake a small lead. 

In a case like this (which happens frequently) TEAM A has demonstrated an ability to continue scoring, whereas TEAM B - who are now leading - is inconsistent but has been fortunate to hit an extraordinary high % on 3s and got the lucky benefit of plenty of extra calls sending them to the FT line.....*usually* a first half like THAT will not sustain itself and TEAM A will keep chugging along and narrow the gap and possibly take the lead, particularly if TEAM A's top players are NOT in foul trouble but 1 or 2 of TEAM B's are (or soon likely to be) in foul trouble.

MENS YTD:  90 - 43

I was making up stats to illustrate a point and may have made a typo or two but you likely get my overall point about consistency and one team gaining a lot of good fortune...

Great perspective. 

I'll be passing completely on the IVY league game as I see no discernible edge to either team.

Princeton has the benefit of playing the final at home.

But Yale whupped them good twice, which includes the recent FEB 18 game @Princeton also, where YALE was playing without their #1 star and still won by 10 pts.

Mind you Princeton is bummed and wants revenge of course and this is the final.

OTOH, YALE's top player having missed 3 recent games did return for the last one is good to go once again!

PASS!

Cougar's all-Everything, Marcus Sasser (groin) is going to give it a go today vs Memphis.

OBVIOUSLY we can't expect he'll be 100%

Judge your bets accordingly

2 

I have the Aggies/Tide game as close, but with a tiny edge to Bama.

Against the top teams in the conference, Aggies went 6 - 1;  Bama 5 - 2

Bama does have some small variables in their favor, sure, but imo, not enough to believe they will easily cover -5.5 pts and too risky to take ML at -225 or whatever, because I just  DO NOT see their odds of winning at 2.2 to 1 over the team that beat them just last week in their only game.

So PASSING on the pregame bets due to no obvious/significant edge.

BUT.......if Bama falls a little behind, and the boxscore metrics are solid, I may take them at some point in game......OR......if indications are this might be a one-off bad day for Bama I would seriously consider A&M in game and likely getting a good price - since Bama enters as the fav.

I will be monitoring for an opportunity to grab VCU in game if a good opp presents itself

For me, there is NOTHING in the boxscore metrics of the Aggies/Tide game that suggest I can steal a small line on a team with a serious shot to win.......therefore, I am totally off that game

I couldn’t resist and grabbed VCU ML +120

Well done

uh-oohhh   Here come the Cougars....down and out and left for dead at HT with their star out of the lineup