Posted:
#26
Fan
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Week 7, relative strengths, discussion
Posted:
#33
Home non-divisional dogs have been 63-42, 60% (+3.86) in my database history.....Argos
They're:
53-38 ATS if dogs of <7
26-16 ATS if <week 8 (22-19 straight up)
Eastern Division teams home dogs week<8
20-13 ATS, 17-15 straight up.
Argos have been 6-4 ATS and straight up in this situation.
AND, saving the best for last....what Western Division team has the worst record as an away non-divisional favorite in the first 8 weeks of the season.....drum roll, trumpets playing, etc., etc.
The Calgary Stampeders have been 2-9 ATS, 3-7-1 straight up......
0-2 ATS, 0-1-1 straight up so far this season.
Beware of the Ricky Argos manana.
If the pitiful Hamilton Tiger Cats can cover against the Eskimos as a home dog, it is quite possible the Argos can/will.
Me? Lean to the Argos and OVER.
My money is staying in my wallet and my wallet is staying in my pocket.
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Posted:
#35
Some big moves now.....
Argos to 6 from opening of 4.
Ottawa started at -3 went down to pick and now up to -3.5
Spottie must have influenced the big money and Hamilton has gone form 14 to 10.
BC has gone from -5.5 to -7
None except the BC line do I agree with.....there is either an influential Mark Lawrence/Dr. Bob type with a large clientele that has put out their plays (most likely) or a syndicate with deep pockets moving large money.
These people put their pants on the same as you and I. I've not seen large moves win a winning percentage of the time in the CFL. Perhaps long-time watchers of the CFL would tell me otherwise. It is too crazy of a league with the last minutes lasting what seems like hours........no lead is safe.
And in the case of Hamilton, I am not seeing the rationale,.....my betting is 80% numbers and 20% right brained feeling. The 20% has to be on board with the numbers, or I'm off the play, which is the case with Hamilton this week. In the NFL and NCAA teams off a HUGE loss will rebound,........when wagering I ask myself, "would I be pissed off at myself if I placed this wager and lost?" I'd be pissed at myself if I took the Tiger Cats and they didn't cover.
My 20% feeling part is wholly on board with Argos tonight, it is just the 80% numbers part didn't come to the party. I couldn't find much in the database to support the Argos. Do I think they will play well and I cover?....yeah I do, but the data is not that strong, so I'm passing.
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Posted:
#37
Spottie must have influenced the big money and Hamilton has gone form 14 to 10.
Count me out on the Ticats vs. the West then the line moved from 14 points reduced to 10? In your theory Hamilton is the play right? The line is regressing!? Anyways what is happening is the lines are pushing higher in the Ticats games and when they play an East team that isn't very good and they are getting big points that is the time to play them. It is best to wait.
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Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
As I've mentioned earlier I am taking the Bombers plus the points over the Redblacks
As I've mentioned earlier I am taking the Bombers plus the points over the Redblacks
The query listed below is 23-3 ATS, 14-0 ATS and 8-6 straight up before week 9.
AD and day = Friday and not DIV and n:F and playoffs = 0 and line>1.5 and week
Winnipeg !
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....
Posted:
#41
These for the Edmonton/Hamilton game
Unbeaten home favorites 12-27 ATS, 6-15 non-divisional
Eskimos
Winless away dogs 26-13 ATS, 15-8-1 non-divisional
Tiger Cats
When a winless away dog plays an unbeaten team....14-3 ATS, 4-13 O/U, 8-2 ATS, 2-8 O/U non-divisional games.
Tiger Cats
Perhaps the big line movers are using queries.
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Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
Winnipeg +3 Win
STD: 14-8-1
That made it interesting, that is for sure. I look for Ottawa to put some good games together now, but now favor Montreal to win the East....they've been the best team in the East, and have by far the best defense.
Nice win and I agree on the Alouettes they finished off last year very strong and it is following through. Play on the Alouettes all year and make money
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